市场资讯及洞察

Bitcoin had a tumultuous 2022 with the leading cryptocurrency seeing an aggressive sell off. Lead by catalyst such including the collapse of Celsius and exchange FTX, the price of the dropped 65% from 50,000 USD to $17,000. The collapse of the large players within the cryptocurrency sphere sent shockwaves as institutions and retailers pulled their funds from the sector.

Further threats of more regulation also threw shade at the legitimacy of the current market and the future ability of the market to operate at the status quo. In more recent times, the price of Bitcoin has not found any significant support and there is no evidence to suggest that in the short term a reversal or a long opportunity will arise. Consequently, traders should be looking at upward price movements as opportunities to entre short until a true reversal is validated.

By looking at the daily chart the price has respected the 100-day moving average. On the prior 4 occasions in which the price has tested this resistance it has failed to break out. Each time the rejection has been accompanied by aggressive bearish candlesticks.

These were sometimes supported by large sell volumes but not always. Using this 100-day moving average line as resistance and waiting for a bearish candle represent a possible short opportunity. This is roughly at $17,900 USD.

The short side target is the break is $15,500 for the first level and then if it breaks through the next support is at $14,000. Looking at the 4-hour chart the price shows that it is still trying to move up with some continuing momentum. Waiting for the 4-hour chart to show some weakness in terms of selling volume or a bearish sequence may provide the entry trigger for a short entry.

Furthermore, the RSI is still in an uptrend. If the RSI breaks to down the side, it may provide some further confirmation of a bread down of the price.

BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) reported Q4 2022 financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $4.563 billion for the quarter, topping analyst estimate of $3.897 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also beat analyst estimates at $9.876 per share vs. $8.296 EPS expected.

CEO commentary ''We made significant progress in 2022 by advancing our pipeline and launching the world’s first Omicron BA.4/BA.5 adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, multiple new modalities achieved encouraging clinical data and we progressed nine new programs into clinical trials,'' said professor Ugur Sahin, M.D., CEO and Co-Founder of BioNTech said in a press release. ''As we look to 2023 and beyond, we plan to continue investing in our transformation with a focus on building commercial capabilities in oncology and working towards registrational trials. Our mid-term goal is to seek approval for multiple oncology products in cancer indications with high unmet medical need,'' he added.

The stock was down by -3.59% at market close on Tuesday at $123.19 per share. Stock performance 1 month: -5.55% 3 months: -29.76% Year-to-date: -17.72% 1 year: -25.70% BioNTech SE price targets HC Wainwright & Co.: $210 JP Morgan: $142 Goldman Sachs: $156 Morgan Stanley: $216 B of A Securities: $239 SVB Leerink: $224 Canaccord Genuity: $192 BioNTech SE is the 576 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.99 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

This week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its decision to hold interest rates at the current level of 4.50%. In the rate statement, the BoC indicated that inflation has eased to 5.9%, and the expectation for weaker economic growth and a moderation of wage growth could see inflation continue on its downward trajectory. The BoC highlighted that it projects that CPI inflation could reach the 3% level by the middle of the year, with core inflation reaching the target level of 2% in time to come.

Following the release of the decision, the Canadian Dollar weakened, with the USDCAD trading higher to test the 1.38 round number resistance level. This move higher was compounded by the recent strength of the DXY, a result of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where he indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up rate hikes if the data warranted. The USDCAD could continue with the uptrend to trade significantly higher toward the next key resistance level of 1.39, especially if the US Non-Farm employment change to be released on Friday is stronger than expected.

However, it is likely that the USDCAD could first retrace briefly to the 1.37 price level, which aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level before a continuation to the upside. This brief retracement is also supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it indicates a likelihood to turn down from the overbought region.

This week, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y data was released at 6.8% (Forecast: 7.2% Previous: 7.4%) which signals a slowdown in inflation growth. In addition, the consecutive release of lower-than-expected CPI data highlights the possibility of a new trend of decreasing inflation for the Australian economy. With the view that inflation has peaked and is possibly on a downturn, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could decide to pause further rate hikes at its upcoming cash rate decision on Tuesday next week.

Keeping interest rates at 3.60% could lead to the AUDUSD trading slightly lower. The AUDUSD is currently trading between the key resistance level of 0.6765 and the support level of 0.6565, with the formation of a bearish pennant. If the AUDUSD maintains below the resistance level, look for a potential breakout to the downside, to retest the key support level of 0.6565.

This move lower could be driven by the recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an inflation indicator that is closely watched by the markets and policymakers as a gauge of economic fluctuation and price stability. Generally, central banks set and adjust their monetary policy mandate in order to achieve a target level of 2-3% which would allow for moderate growth in prices. As the major economies emerge from the cloud of the Covid pandemic, the new battle is for the central banks to bring down inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began on its path of aggressive interest rate hikes in May 2022 as the Australian CPI had been climbing steadily to reach 6% by that same period. However, despite the rate hikes, inflation continued to rise to a peak of 8.4% in December 2022. This week, the Australian CPI y/y data was released at 7.4% which highlights an easing in inflation growth, potentially a lagging impact from the cumulate interest rate increases from the RBA.

Immediately following the release of the CPI data, the AUDUSD spiked down from the 0.6730 level to retest the round number key support level of 0.67. However, as the RBA has indicated that “further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target”, the current slowdown in inflation growth could provide the RBA with more confidence that rate increases could lead to it achieving its target. As a result, sustained moves to the downside have been limited as the market anticipates another 25bps rate hike to come in the following week.

The AUDUSD currently trades under the 0.6780 resistance area which coincides with the 23.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Anticipating a bullish correction to the upside, as markets expect further interest rate increases, look for the price to break above the resistance level and the bearish trendline to trade higher toward the next key resistance level of 0.6870. This potential move higher is also supported by a crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

热门话题美东时间9月20日周三，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍为5.25%到5.50%，将政策利率保持在二十二年来高位。

继今年6月后，这是美联储本轮紧缩周期内第二次未延续前次会议的行动继续加息。本次暂停加息符合市场预期。芝商所（CME）的工具显示，在美联储决议公布后前一日，本周二美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，美联储本周按兵不动的概率接近100%，11月加息的概率不到30%，12月加息的概率约为40%。

尽管加息下的物价已开始如期下行，但是通胀卷土重来的担忧在近期油价飙升下加剧。目前美国方面经济数据仍有韧性，对于是否结束本轮加息周期仍然未能给出明确方向。因此美联储本次维持利率更多出于等待11月和12月更多经济数据，从而更好的决定下一次利率决策。会后美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图透出整体偏鹰，12名联储官员、六成以上官员预计今年内还有一次加息，多数都预计今年内还有一次加息。

联储对明年的展望明显更为鹰派，对市场产生扰动，货币市场对11月加息的押注一度从29%升至31%。截至最新，芝商所（CME）的工具显示28.4%概率认为11月将加息25bp。

受消息影响，美元短线暴涨并逆袭当日跌势，黄金则自日内高位回撤逾10美元。美元指数由104.75一线迅速拉升40逾点至105.20附近，黄金则下滑数美元至1939。美元指数自7月99美元低点反弹以来，在200日均线之上形成稳步上涨趋势，涨幅已超5%。从昨日美联储利率决议的市场反应来看，美元短期内仍将延续强势，下一阻力位关注今年3月未能 突破的前高105.48美元。

黄金价格目前正挣扎在前阻力区间1932.71-1938.59下方，50日、100日及200日移动平均线都位于该阻力区间的下方，黄金突破上行较难。如果金价涨破这些均线并进一步上涨，下一目标将看向1885-1893以及更高的1900。长期来看，黄金看涨，近期黄金已经显示出易上行，缓下跌的态势。然而黄金上攻的势头被昨日偏鹰的美联储压制，短期内预计多空争夺，可在区间内寻找交易机会。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师