市场资讯及洞察

The Bank of Japan is due to hold its first monetary policy meeting under new Governor Ueda on the 29th of April 2023. Since his appointment, Governor Ueda has frequently indicated that the BoJ will continue with its current easing stance on monetary policy with targets for long and short-term interest rates. Although headline and core inflation runs above 3% and the 10Y JGB yields have again climbed close to the ceiling at 0.50%, it is unlikely that Gov Ueda would introduce a widening of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) at this meeting.

However, while a lack of action from the BoJ is widely expected, this could still result in a further weakening of the Japanese Yen across the board. The USDJPY currently trades along the 134 price level, with the upside capped by the 135 resistance level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term. A weakening of the Yen could see the USDJPY break above the resistance level and climb higher toward the next key resistance level at 138.

This potential move higher is also signaled by the cross-over on the MACD indicator. Alternatively, if the BoJ surprises markets by announcing a widening of the YCC or an adjustment to the current monetary policy, this could result in a sharp strengthening of the Japanese Yen. In this scenario, the GBPJPY could reverse strongly from the resistance area of 168 to trade significantly to the downside toward the immediate support level at 165.50 which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Bank of England announced the latest policy decision on Thursday, raising interest rates for the 12th consecutive time from 4.25% to 4.5%, which was in line with expectations. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise interest rates to 4.5%. Two members voted to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%.

The current interest rate is at its highest level since October 2008. Inflation UK’s annual inflation rate decreased from 10.4% to 10.1% in April and remains high. The bank expects inflation to continue falling in Q2 and in the near term. ''CPI inflation is expected to fall sharply from April, in part as large rises in the price level one year ago drop out of the annual comparison.

In addition, the extension in the Spring Budget of the Energy Price Guarantee and declines in wholesale energy prices will both lower the contribution from household energy bills to CPI inflation. However, food price inflation is likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected. Alongside news in other goods prices, this explains why the Committee’s modal expectation for CPI inflation now falls back more slowly than in the February Report.'' Economic outlook As for the economy, the central bank expects it to remain flat but there are signs potential growth. ''UK GDP is expected to be flat over the first half of this year, although underlying output, excluding the estimated impact of strikes and an extra bank holiday, is projected to grow modestly.

Economic activity has been less weak than expected in February, and the Committee now judges that the path of demand is likely to be materially stronger than expected in the February Report, albeit still subdued by historical standards. The improved outlook reflects stronger global growth, lower energy prices, the fiscal support in the Spring Budget, and the possibility that a tight labour market leads to lower precautionary saving by households.'' The unemployment is expected to remain below 4% until the end of next year. Market reaction The Pound was weaker against the US dollar on Thursday, down by around -0.93% at 1.25089.

FTSE100 was down by -0.14% at 7733.41. The next Bank of England rate decision will be on 22 nd June. Source: Bank of England, Trading Economics, MetaTrader 5

Major Asian stock indexes are following the lead from Wall St where US stocks finished broadly lower in a choppy, low volume session as economic news disappointed, Fed talking heads remained hawkish and a mixed batch of earnings. The ASX200 and Nikkei down around 0.24% while the Hang Seng down just over 0.5 a % FX Markets Have mostly continued with US dollar strength, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have both declined against the greenback in the Asian session so far. The Aussie dollar is looking to test the 0.67 level where it found support yesterday, and the Kiwi dollar in similar action looking to also test yesterdays lows at 0.6150.

Both the Aussie and Kiwi suffering from a risk off mood to the markets on the weak economic data released in the US overnight. The JPY is bucking the USD strength trend though with a Hotter than expected CPI figure released today supporting the Yen as well as safe haven flows. core inflation came in at 3.1% vs 3% expected. We also have a BoJ meeting next week, the first for the new governor and one where we may get a hawkish surprise regarding The BoJ policies going forward which seems to be adding to Yen strength. commodities Gold has modestly declined this morning, but holding just above the 2000 USD an ounce level where there has been a real battle between the bulls and the bears the last few days and will be an important level to watch going into tonight's US and European session.

World’s largest company Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) announced the latest financial results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. After disappointing results last quarter, the company bounced back in the fiscal 2023 second quarter ended April 1, 2023, topping revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview • Founded: April 1, 1976 • Headquarters: 1 Apple Park Way, Cupertino, California, United States • Number of employees: 164,000 (2022) • Industry: consumer electronics, software services, online services • Key people: Arthur D.

Levinson (chairman), Tim Cook (CEO), Jeff Williams (COO), Luca Maestri (CFO) The results Apple reported revenue of $94.836 billion for the quarter vs. $92.906 billion expected. Revenues were up down by 3% from the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.52 per share (unchanged year-over-year) vs. $1.429 per share expected.

The company announced a dividend of $0.24 per share. CEO commentary "We are pleased to report an all-time record in Services and a March quarter record for iPhone despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, and to have our installed base of active devices reach an all-time high," Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook said in a letter to investors. "We continue to invest for the long term and lead with our values, including making major progress toward building carbon neutral products and supply chains by 2030," Cook concluded. The stock was down by just shy of 1% at market close on Thursday at $165.77 a share.

Share price rose by around +2% in after-hours following the latest results. Stock performance • 1 month: +0.69% • 3 months: +9.93% • Year-to-date: +27.60% • 1 year: +5.75% Apple price targets • Rosenblatt: $173 • Baird: $180 • B of A Securities: $173 • Deutsche Bank: $170 • Barclays: $149 • JP Morgan: $190 • Wedbush: $205 • Credit Suisse: $188 Apple is the largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.640 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Apple Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced first quarter financial results before the market open on Thursday, setting a new quarterly revenue record. Company overview Founded: March 18, 1850 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (December 2022) Industry: Banking, financial services Key people: Stephen J. Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C.

Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) The results American Express reported revenue that broke all previous quarterly records at $14.281 billion (up by 16% from the same period last year) vs. $13.981 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.40 per share (down by 12% year-over-year), falling short of analyst estimate of $2.656 per share. CEO commentary ''Our first-quarter results reflect strong growth in Card Member spending and continued high engagement with our premium products, tracking with the full-year 2023 guidance we provided in January, which we are reaffirming today, for revenue growth of 15 percent to 17 percent and earnings per share of $11.00 to $11.40,'' Stephen J.

Squeri, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release to investors. ''Revenue grew 22 percent from a year earlier to reach a quarterly record, as Card Member spending rose 16 percent on an FX-adjusted basis. Travel and Entertainment spending was particularly robust, growing 39 percent on an FX-adjusted basis and in March, we saw a record level of reservations booked on our Resy restaurant platform. We also saw an acceleration in spending in our International Card Services segment, which increased 29 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.

Spending on Goods and Services around the globe grew 9 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.'' ''Our customers have been resilient thus far in the face of slower macroeconomic growth, elevated inflation and higher interest rates, with credit performance remaining best-in-class. That said, we’re mindful of the mixed signals in the external environment.'' ''Based on our performance to date and the momentum we see in our business, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our longer-term growth plan aspirations,'' Squeri concluded. The stock was down by around -1% on Thursday at $162.41 per share.

Stock performance 1 month: -0.26% 3 months: +10.54% Year-to-date: +9.87% 1 year: -12.60% American Express price targets SVB Securities: $220 Piper Sandler: $179 BMO Capital: $197 Citigroup: $152 Jefferies: $170 American Express is the 109 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $120.91 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underperformer to see EURUSD hit lows of 1.0668 before finding support at a Fib level, this following a miss in German Industrial orders and an ECB consumers survey showing a sharp decline in inflation expectations.

Adding to the dovish tone was comments from ECB member Knot (a known hawk) who made some dovish comments declaring “the worst of inflation is behind us”. More ECB talk is scheduled for Wednesday which could add to this narrative. CAD managed to eke out some gains against the Dollar in a whipsawing session, USDCAD seeing a low low of 1.3391, breaching the key support level at 1.34.CAD was initially weighed on by lower oil prices, but an improved growth outlook saw Crude oil rebound with the CAD following suit.

Later today CAD traders will have all eyes on the BoC rate decision where the Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, but there is a distinct possibility of a 25bps hike in the wake of the recent beats on GDP and CPI readings. Current market pricing has a 46% chance of a hike priced in, so will be line ball. GBP and JPY were modestly higher against the USD on the session.

JPY pared some of its initial strength by a rise in UST yields widening the UST-JGB differential. GBPUSD traded within a tight range, printing a low of 1.2392 and a high of 1.2458. Weak home building figures and a rising recession fear capping gains on cable as the BoE's aggressive rate hiking campaign appears to be slowing the economy.

AUD was the clear G10 outperformer after the RBA surprised the market again with a 25bps hike to 4.10%, which along with a hawkish RBA statement noting further rate hikes “may be required” seeing AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6685, falling just short of the 200DMA at 0.6692 and holding most of the gains post announcement throughout the session. For AUD watchers today Q1 GDP will be released today at 11:30 AEST, though it could have limited impact given the RBA already opted to hike rates yesterday. Calendar of today’s major risk events: