市场资讯及洞察

American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced first quarter financial results before the market open on Thursday, setting a new quarterly revenue record. Company overview Founded: March 18, 1850 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (December 2022) Industry: Banking, financial services Key people: Stephen J. Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C.

Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) The results American Express reported revenue that broke all previous quarterly records at $14.281 billion (up by 16% from the same period last year) vs. $13.981 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.40 per share (down by 12% year-over-year), falling short of analyst estimate of $2.656 per share. CEO commentary ''Our first-quarter results reflect strong growth in Card Member spending and continued high engagement with our premium products, tracking with the full-year 2023 guidance we provided in January, which we are reaffirming today, for revenue growth of 15 percent to 17 percent and earnings per share of $11.00 to $11.40,'' Stephen J.

Squeri, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release to investors. ''Revenue grew 22 percent from a year earlier to reach a quarterly record, as Card Member spending rose 16 percent on an FX-adjusted basis. Travel and Entertainment spending was particularly robust, growing 39 percent on an FX-adjusted basis and in March, we saw a record level of reservations booked on our Resy restaurant platform. We also saw an acceleration in spending in our International Card Services segment, which increased 29 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.

Spending on Goods and Services around the globe grew 9 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.'' ''Our customers have been resilient thus far in the face of slower macroeconomic growth, elevated inflation and higher interest rates, with credit performance remaining best-in-class. That said, we’re mindful of the mixed signals in the external environment.'' ''Based on our performance to date and the momentum we see in our business, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our longer-term growth plan aspirations,'' Squeri concluded. The stock was down by around -1% on Thursday at $162.41 per share.

Stock performance 1 month: -0.26% 3 months: +10.54% Year-to-date: +9.87% 1 year: -12.60% American Express price targets SVB Securities: $220 Piper Sandler: $179 BMO Capital: $197 Citigroup: $152 Jefferies: $170 American Express is the 109 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $120.91 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underperformer to see EURUSD hit lows of 1.0668 before finding support at a Fib level, this following a miss in German Industrial orders and an ECB consumers survey showing a sharp decline in inflation expectations.

Adding to the dovish tone was comments from ECB member Knot (a known hawk) who made some dovish comments declaring “the worst of inflation is behind us”. More ECB talk is scheduled for Wednesday which could add to this narrative. CAD managed to eke out some gains against the Dollar in a whipsawing session, USDCAD seeing a low low of 1.3391, breaching the key support level at 1.34.CAD was initially weighed on by lower oil prices, but an improved growth outlook saw Crude oil rebound with the CAD following suit.

Later today CAD traders will have all eyes on the BoC rate decision where the Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, but there is a distinct possibility of a 25bps hike in the wake of the recent beats on GDP and CPI readings. Current market pricing has a 46% chance of a hike priced in, so will be line ball. GBP and JPY were modestly higher against the USD on the session.

JPY pared some of its initial strength by a rise in UST yields widening the UST-JGB differential. GBPUSD traded within a tight range, printing a low of 1.2392 and a high of 1.2458. Weak home building figures and a rising recession fear capping gains on cable as the BoE's aggressive rate hiking campaign appears to be slowing the economy.

AUD was the clear G10 outperformer after the RBA surprised the market again with a 25bps hike to 4.10%, which along with a hawkish RBA statement noting further rate hikes “may be required” seeing AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6685, falling just short of the 200DMA at 0.6692 and holding most of the gains post announcement throughout the session. For AUD watchers today Q1 GDP will be released today at 11:30 AEST, though it could have limited impact given the RBA already opted to hike rates yesterday. Calendar of today’s major risk events:

AUD and NZD, being cyclical currencies (cyclical currencies being ones that are extra sensitive to global risk sentiment) took a big hit in Fridays session, dropping 1.1% and 1.3% respectively against the USD and remain under pressure today. Weak retail sales out of the US on Friday didn’t help risk sentiment, but the rout really started when the USD soared on hawkish comments from Fed governors, (Waller being the most forceful) which saw rate hike odds at the next Fed meeting push significantly higher. Both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have suffered from a shift in market pricing for continuing rate hikes in the United States and Europe, with Fed Funds futures now showing an 80% chance of another Fed hike in May and flirting with the risk of a 50bp hike from the ECB as both banks Governors continue to talk tough on inflation.

AUDUSD AUDUSD is technically still in an uptrend with an upward sloping trend line still in place, AUD was helped along by stellar employment figures out of Australia last week, though the forcefulness of the rejection at the 0.68 USD resistance zone on Friday does put into question how much legs this short-term uptrend has. Traders looking to enter the AUDUSD need to keep these levels in mind, a break and hold of the major 0.68 resistance could signal a push higher and resumption of the uptrend, a solid break through the short term trend would likely see the AUDUSD test 2023 lows before finding much buying. NZDUSD The Kiwi is showing similar price action to AUDUSD, with its major resistance and an area of a real battle between the Bulls and the Bears just above the psychological 0.63 level, with some short term support around the 0.6170 level.

There was a major rejection of the 0.63 level on Friday, in similar price action to the AUD, this also pushed NZDUSD below its 100 Day SMA (which has now turned on a downward trajectory) and just holding above its support zone. Like the AUD, a break below this support zone could see the Kiwi test the 2023 lows around 0.6080 before seeing buyers come back in, any push above 0.63 is likely to see some pushback and volatility in the NZDUSD pair. AUDNZD Despite higher yields in New Zealand the AUDNZD pair has rallied strongly in recent days, helped along by some small pricing in of a RBA hike next month after the strong jobs report.

The pair has now risen well into the 1.08’s after pushing below its 10-year median of 1.07 earlier in the month, showing that AUDNZD continues to be a good buy under this level. In economic news out of Australia, the RBA Minutes form the last RBA meeting will be released tomorrow, which could give clues as to whether the hold is temporary or not, plus NZ CPI figures will be released on Thursday. Inflation figures have been very important in recent times as indicators of Central Bank actions, so we could see some excitement on this figure.

The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting with AUDUSD, we’ve seen a very strong and tight range develop between a high of 0.6818 to a low of 0.6564 since late February, with the AUD moving in unison with risk sentiment, recently a push lower in this pair has been driven by US debt ceiling concerns, and haven flows into the USD.

Using an equidistant four-part grid the buy and sell zones to take advantage of this range trading opportunity become clear. While this range continues, buying in the green zones and selling in the red zones has so far been very successful. This looks likely to continue while the aforementioned US debt ceiling impasse remains in place, though traders will need to be on top of any developments, a resolution is likely to see risk roar back and the AUD take a leg up.

The other opportunity is the relative underperformance of the AUD vs its close neighbour, NZD. This has seen AUDNZD drop below its 10 year mean of 1.07, giving mean reversion traders an opportunity to buy this pair at a discount. Weekly chart of AUDNZD, showing how this mean reversion trade has worked over the last 8 years.

To help with entries, a shorter time frame chart can be used, below is the 4-hour chart showing a strong support zone has formed between 1.0650 – 1.0580 during the last month, where price has tested on multiple occasions before moving back to the 1.07 level. These are two of my favourite trading styles I’ve used over the years, but as always, have an exit plan and keep aware of macro happenings if you are looking to incorporate this style of trading into your toolbox. AUDUSD – US debt ceiling negotiations AUDNZD – RBA and RBNZ rate expectations

热门话题新闻：巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）在周六对以色列发动突然袭击，随后以色列正式向哈马斯宣战，以色列已征召了创纪录的 30 万名预备役军人，应对未来战争升级。目前战争死亡人数已经超过了1000人，受伤人数超过了5000人。美国将目前最大的航母舰队派向以色列附近派遣。

今年1月份，第五次出任以色列总理的内塔尼亚胡组建了有史以来最为右倾的政府，巴以冲突就开始有所加剧。今年7月，以色列国防军对西岸的杰宁地区发起大规模空中和地面打击，导致局势进一步升级。本次的袭击，以色列情报局没有获得任何信息来源，而哈马斯的袭击采用了滑翔机载人、无人机袭击坦克车等新型作战方式，明显是从其他国家学习到的。同时，采用了非无线电等通讯手段，导致以色列情报工作没有任何关于该次袭击的进展。因此，正如俄罗斯表态，未来第三国介入的风险在增加。虽然这场冲突的背后，冲突双方均表示，伊朗支持了这场袭击，但伊朗并不承认。美国国务卿布林肯也表示，还没有看到伊朗指挥或支持这次袭击的证据。他还强调，伊朗没使用9月份美国和伊朗交换囚犯时解冻的60亿美元资金。所以目前来看，伊朗没有在官方立场上卷入巴以冲突，当下的局势还有可能被控制住。以色列不生产太多石油，因此以色列冲突的主要风险是伊朗是否介入。战争恰逢石油供应短缺，导致原油价格大幅上涨。如果未来伊朗面临更大的国际压力，伊朗石油产量和销量面临下行风险，会导致石油价格进一步上涨。如果以色列未来袭击伊朗，石油价格将飙升到120美金上方。除此之外，整个中东地区目前是一团糟。我们来给大家捋一捋：土耳其在10月4日对叙利亚和伊拉克境内的库尔德武装组织发起军事打击，源于民族矛盾。而伊拉克是重要的石油生产和出口国，从当年美国不惜代价也要拿下伊拉克就知道，其石油价值巨大。目前伊拉克产油量为427.7万桶/日。俄罗斯，目前还在阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚之间斡旋。阿塞拜疆输油量为每日145万桶。阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚的冲突源于宗教和民族矛盾。黎巴嫩和巴基斯坦正在与以色列产生剧烈冲突，战事升级。10月7日巴以双方的战争已经造成千人死亡。10月8日，黎巴嫩真主党与以色列军方爆发军事冲突。而以色列国内面临改革压力，内部显现出明显的混乱。在军事调度和情报工作中，逊于过往。巴基斯坦背后站着伊朗老大哥，产油量为300万桶/日。也门9月25日对沙特南部的联军营地发起无人机袭击，内战变为外战，而本来在9月，美国出面，希望沙特和以色列关系友好化，但是很明显哈马斯不会让沙特和以色列联盟，迅速出手。沙特产油量为897万桶每日。

所以，目前中东产油量有1650万桶/日的规模，是有继续减产的危机的。因此，大家可以选择购买石油现货或者期货，来对冲未来油价上涨的困境。同时可以对冲的还有货币对。受益于油价上涨，挪威克朗兑十国集团所有货币走高。也可以通过做空股市，反向对冲，风险事件导致股市下跌，恒生指数和美股周一白天普遍下跌。贸易货币下跌，澳币也会下跌。美元有一定的避险功能，美元继续走强。这些都是金融市场对地缘政治危机做出的反应。所以，除了买涨石油：USO、UKO、Oil-F、天然气等产品，还可以买涨相应的股票。或者挪威克朗、加元，黄金等产品。在GO Markets上都可以找到相应的产品。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

热门话题周五公布的美国9月非农新增就业数据迅猛增长，达到了33.6万人，是预期的两倍，远超过之前的预估。相较于8月修正值增加了10万人以上。这不仅打破了招聘速度放缓的担忧，还创下了今年1月以来最大的月度增幅纪录。这一数据远超华尔街最高预期值25万人，而之前的共识却是9月份新增就业将达到2023年以来的最低水平，这种观点在周三非官方ADP数据中有所体现。本次数据比前两个月的平均就业增长高出近12万人，表明美国就业市场仍然非常强劲。此外，报告还指出美国的餐馆和酒吧业就业人数已经恢复到2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前的水平，失业率持续保持在历史低位的3.8%，尽管薪资同比增长4.2%略低于预期，但仍创下了2021年中期以来的最小增幅。

这些数据让华尔街更加确信美国利率将会维持在较高水平更长时间。在周五强劲的劳动力市场数据公布时，期货交易员一度将年底前美联储加息的押注提至56%，不过美股在午盘的表现使得这一押注回落到了就业数据公布前的40%。首次降息的预期也从明年7月推迟到了明年9月。美联储喉舌Nick在一份报道中提到，美国9月非农就业激增，是经济加速的最新迹象，为美联储再次加息打开了大门。周五的报告显示，劳动力市场近期的强势可能会阻碍美联储最近在放缓经济方面取得的进展。这一激增可能会让美联储官员对通胀下降的信心再次降低。官员们将密切关注周四即将发布的9月CPI和PPI数据，以及对债市借贷成本上升的担忧。英国主流财经媒体则认为，9月非农数据加剧了投资者对利率在更长时间内维持更高水平的担忧，导致数据发布初期债券抛售再度爆发，他们认为人们必须适应利率在更高位维持更长时间，消逝的廉价资金时代将产生重大的经济影响，债市收益率上升可能会引发更严重的动荡，欧美明年经济增长预期会放缓。不少主流分析师开始押注美联储将在11月加息，因为9月非农数据表现出经济仍然具有极强的韧性，尤其在利率上升，劳资冲突和美国国会功能失调等重压之下，这些分析师开始预测美联储将在11月1日会议上再次加息25个基点，但并不否认债市仍然是市场的主导因素。一些专家则表示，美联储需要在抑制通胀和维持经济增长之间取得艰难的平衡。富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案的首席投资官Wylie Tollett，BMO Capital Markets的美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen，花旗首席美国经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst，巴克莱首席美国经济学家Marc Gianninoni以及安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian都表示11月加息成为很大可能。总体来说，由于非农的爆表，令华尔街目前普遍认为今年内再次加息是必然的，而明年降息的时间表也会推迟。

从综合数据来看，美联储官员开始对收益率飙升带来的影响感到担忧，因为过度加息的损害难以弥补。本周的CPI和PPI将成为美联储后期决策的关键因素。长期美债收益率的飙升实际上已经完成了央行的部分工作。一些观点认为，失业率高于预期可能表明更多工人正在重新加入劳动力市场，这有助于打破长期供需失衡，并逐渐降低薪资通胀。一些经济学家和分析师并不认为一份强劲的就业数据足以改变美联储对后续利率政策的谨慎态度。因为美国借贷成本正在巨幅上升，这其实增强了投资者对美联储已经完成加息的信心。美联储官员们不仅需要关注就业数据，他们也在密切关注着债券市场的变动。总的来说，美联储对后续政策的决定将受到多方面因素的影响，而不仅仅是凭借非农就业数据就可以妄下定义的。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师