市场资讯及洞察

三家中央银行同时决定利率,布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动,中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么,都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定,市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1%的可能性为66%。
- 一些分析师警告说,到年底,伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5%,并将美联储的降息推迟到9月,这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”,此后,布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储:澳大利亚会再次加息吗?
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后,澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85%。
现在的问题是,在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前,它是否会再次发生变化,该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认,决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定,这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66%,无论周一发生什么情况,5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。

联邦公开市场委员会:可能持有,所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议,政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示,美联储将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的可能性为99%。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要(SEP)和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减,那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息,市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是,鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人,他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。

日本银行:可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议,预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75%(30年来的最高水平),2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”,并指出,如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果,进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布,这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计,2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0%,包括资历,基本薪酬增长约3.4%。如果结果证实了这一轨迹,那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90%的能源需求是进口的,而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本,并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停,4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定(目前为0.75%): 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。

石油:持续波动
本周早些时候,布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元,随后下跌17%,至80美元以下,随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四,由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击,而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解,布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下,分析师估计,到2026年底,消费者价格指数可能升至3.5%,第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周,石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。


Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 ended March 31, before the opening bell on Wall Street on Monday. Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Westlake, Texas, United States Number of branches: 400 Number of employees: 35,300 (as of December 2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Charles R. Schwab (co-chairman), Walter W.
Bettinger (co-chairman & CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst expectations at $5.116 billion vs. $5.134 billion estimate. Earnings per share reported at $0.93 per share for the quarter vs. $0.90 per share expected. CEO commentary ''When I drafted my first letter to stockholders 15 years ago in the middle of the financial crisis, I outlined four factors that helped distinguish Schwab from other financial institutions during a very challenging time for global markets: a strong financial foundation, a client-centric strategy, a disciplined operating approach, and a diversified business model.
These characteristics remain every bit as relevant to our story today. We continue to consistently manage the business in a conservative manner, with an unwavering long-term orientation. Our ongoing commitment to this consistency of mission, including our “Through Clients’ Eyes” strategy, highlights why we maintain the ability to meet the needs of individual investors and the advisors who serve them through various environments,'' CEO, Walter W.
Bettinger said in a letter to shareholders. ''While equity markets rebounded from year-end 2022 levels, investor sentiment remained bearish – especially following the onset of the banking industry turmoil in early March. Fixed income markets also reflected growing fears of an economic downturn as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined approximately 50 basis points from its intra-quarter peak to end March just under 3.50%.
Through the various ups and downs to start the year, Schwab remained a trusted partner to investors. During the quarter, clients opened over 1 million new brokerage accounts and entrusted us with $132 billion of core net new assets – including over $53 billion in March alone. While Investor Services gathered approximately $60 billion during the period, the Advisor Services segment posted a record first quarter with over $71 billion in net flows and attracted 70 transitioning advisor teams.
These near-record inflows across both our primary businesses represents an annualized organic growth rate north of 7% and helped push total client assets to $7.58 trillion at quarter-end.'' Shares closed up by +3.94% on Monday at $52.73 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -6.55% 3 months: -36.81% Year-to-date: -37.02% 1 year: -30.03% Charles Schwab Corporation price targets Barclays: $56 Morgan Stanley: $65 Citigroup: $65 Credit Suisse: $68 Goldman Sachs: $75 Deutsche Bank: $83 Piper Sandler: $95 JP Morgan: $97 Charles Schwab Corporation is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $95.10 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Charles Schwab Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. World’s largest aerospace company posted mixed results. Let’s take a close look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 15, 1916 Headquarters: Arlington County, Virginia, United States Number of employees: 156,000 (2022) Industry: Aerospace Key people: Dave Calhoun (President and CEO), Larry Kellner (Chairman) The results Boeing reported revenue of $17,921 billion for the quarter, topping analyst estimate of $17.516 billion. Revenues were up by 28% compared to the same period last year. The company reported loss per share of -$1.27, which exceeded analyst estimate of -$1.073 loss per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered a solid first quarter and are focused on driving stability for our customers," Dave Calhoun, CEO of Boeing said in a letter to shareholders. "We are progressing through recent supply chain disruptions but remain confident in the goals we set for this year, as well as for the longer term. Demand is strong across our key markets and we are growing investments to advance our development programs and innovate strategic capabilities for our customers and for our future," Calhoun concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the share price.
The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $207.62 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +0.94% 3 months: -1.29% Year-to-date: +10.21% 1 year: +35.91% Boeing price targets Susquehanna: $260 Bernstein: $252 Credit Suisse: $220 Northcoast Research: $180 Cowen & Co.: $230 Boeing is the 95 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $126.05 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


The Bank of Japan is due to hold its first monetary policy meeting under new Governor Ueda on the 29th of April 2023. Since his appointment, Governor Ueda has frequently indicated that the BoJ will continue with its current easing stance on monetary policy with targets for long and short-term interest rates. Although headline and core inflation runs above 3% and the 10Y JGB yields have again climbed close to the ceiling at 0.50%, it is unlikely that Gov Ueda would introduce a widening of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) at this meeting.
However, while a lack of action from the BoJ is widely expected, this could still result in a further weakening of the Japanese Yen across the board. The USDJPY currently trades along the 134 price level, with the upside capped by the 135 resistance level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term. A weakening of the Yen could see the USDJPY break above the resistance level and climb higher toward the next key resistance level at 138.
This potential move higher is also signaled by the cross-over on the MACD indicator. Alternatively, if the BoJ surprises markets by announcing a widening of the YCC or an adjustment to the current monetary policy, this could result in a sharp strengthening of the Japanese Yen. In this scenario, the GBPJPY could reverse strongly from the resistance area of 168 to trade significantly to the downside toward the immediate support level at 165.50 which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.


Bank of England announced the latest policy decision on Thursday, raising interest rates for the 12th consecutive time from 4.25% to 4.5%, which was in line with expectations. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise interest rates to 4.5%. Two members voted to maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%.
The current interest rate is at its highest level since October 2008. Inflation UK’s annual inflation rate decreased from 10.4% to 10.1% in April and remains high. The bank expects inflation to continue falling in Q2 and in the near term. ''CPI inflation is expected to fall sharply from April, in part as large rises in the price level one year ago drop out of the annual comparison.
In addition, the extension in the Spring Budget of the Energy Price Guarantee and declines in wholesale energy prices will both lower the contribution from household energy bills to CPI inflation. However, food price inflation is likely to fall back more slowly than previously expected. Alongside news in other goods prices, this explains why the Committee’s modal expectation for CPI inflation now falls back more slowly than in the February Report.'' Economic outlook As for the economy, the central bank expects it to remain flat but there are signs potential growth. ''UK GDP is expected to be flat over the first half of this year, although underlying output, excluding the estimated impact of strikes and an extra bank holiday, is projected to grow modestly.
Economic activity has been less weak than expected in February, and the Committee now judges that the path of demand is likely to be materially stronger than expected in the February Report, albeit still subdued by historical standards. The improved outlook reflects stronger global growth, lower energy prices, the fiscal support in the Spring Budget, and the possibility that a tight labour market leads to lower precautionary saving by households.'' The unemployment is expected to remain below 4% until the end of next year. Market reaction The Pound was weaker against the US dollar on Thursday, down by around -0.93% at 1.25089.
FTSE100 was down by -0.14% at 7733.41. The next Bank of England rate decision will be on 22 nd June. Source: Bank of England, Trading Economics, MetaTrader 5


Major Asian stock indexes are following the lead from Wall St where US stocks finished broadly lower in a choppy, low volume session as economic news disappointed, Fed talking heads remained hawkish and a mixed batch of earnings. The ASX200 and Nikkei down around 0.24% while the Hang Seng down just over 0.5 a % FX Markets Have mostly continued with US dollar strength, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have both declined against the greenback in the Asian session so far. The Aussie dollar is looking to test the 0.67 level where it found support yesterday, and the Kiwi dollar in similar action looking to also test yesterdays lows at 0.6150.
Both the Aussie and Kiwi suffering from a risk off mood to the markets on the weak economic data released in the US overnight. The JPY is bucking the USD strength trend though with a Hotter than expected CPI figure released today supporting the Yen as well as safe haven flows. core inflation came in at 3.1% vs 3% expected. We also have a BoJ meeting next week, the first for the new governor and one where we may get a hawkish surprise regarding The BoJ policies going forward which seems to be adding to Yen strength. commodities Gold has modestly declined this morning, but holding just above the 2000 USD an ounce level where there has been a real battle between the bulls and the bears the last few days and will be an important level to watch going into tonight's US and European session.


World’s largest company Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) announced the latest financial results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. After disappointing results last quarter, the company bounced back in the fiscal 2023 second quarter ended April 1, 2023, topping revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview • Founded: April 1, 1976 • Headquarters: 1 Apple Park Way, Cupertino, California, United States • Number of employees: 164,000 (2022) • Industry: consumer electronics, software services, online services • Key people: Arthur D.
Levinson (chairman), Tim Cook (CEO), Jeff Williams (COO), Luca Maestri (CFO) The results Apple reported revenue of $94.836 billion for the quarter vs. $92.906 billion expected. Revenues were up down by 3% from the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.52 per share (unchanged year-over-year) vs. $1.429 per share expected.
The company announced a dividend of $0.24 per share. CEO commentary "We are pleased to report an all-time record in Services and a March quarter record for iPhone despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, and to have our installed base of active devices reach an all-time high," Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook said in a letter to investors. "We continue to invest for the long term and lead with our values, including making major progress toward building carbon neutral products and supply chains by 2030," Cook concluded. The stock was down by just shy of 1% at market close on Thursday at $165.77 a share.
Share price rose by around +2% in after-hours following the latest results. Stock performance • 1 month: +0.69% • 3 months: +9.93% • Year-to-date: +27.60% • 1 year: +5.75% Apple price targets • Rosenblatt: $173 • Baird: $180 • B of A Securities: $173 • Deutsche Bank: $170 • Barclays: $149 • JP Morgan: $190 • Wedbush: $205 • Credit Suisse: $188 Apple is the largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.640 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Apple Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
