市场资讯及洞察

说到 Hims & Hers（简称 HIMS），很多人第一反应可能是广告里的夫妻健康保健品。但这家公司可不仅仅是卖药的这么简单，而是把线上诊疗、处方药和订阅模式揉到了一起，活生生变成了一个“互联网药房房东”。本文就带你轻松看懂 HIMS 的生意逻辑、护城河，以及它和竞争对手的暗战。一、HIMS 卖的是什么？线上诊所 + 药柜订阅如果把 HIMS 比作一家便利店，它有三个柜台：

• 线上诊所：用户通过 App 就能和医生沟通，常见科室包括脱发、性健康、心理健康、皮肤科。
• 药品订阅：诊断完直接寄药到家门口，常见的防脱发药、ED 仿制药、抗抑郁药、护肤配方都是长期需求。
• 自有品牌：除了处方药，还有洗发水、保健品、护肤品，像是便利店自营的“自有商品区”。

一句话总结：HIMS 卖的不是单次买卖，而是把“看病 + 拿药”打包成一个持续订阅服务。二、钱从哪来？订阅就是收租HIMS 的商业模式和 Adobe 有点神似，都是收租户：

• 订阅收入是绝对大头：根据公司2024 年年报，年底活跃订阅用户接近 170 万，年营收 12 亿美元，大多数来自处方药订阅。
• 根据公司 2024 年年报，HIMS 年营收约 12 亿美元，其中大多数来自处方药订阅。截至 2024 年底，活跃订阅用户接近 170 万。
• 复购率高：用户一旦开药，就会长期续方。比如防脱发和性健康，这些几乎是“刚需 + 长期需求”。
• 毛利率高：靠仿制药和自有品牌，根据往年财报，毛利率稳定在 70% 左右。
• ARR 稳定增长：据公司公告，每季度都能新增 10–15 万订阅用户，相当于租客越来越多，租金自然水涨船高。

所以说，HIMS 就是“药品房东”，用户要长期吃药，就必须持续交租。三、AI 怎么玩？HIMS 的“虚拟小药师”别家 AI 可能主打画画写文案，HIMS 的 AI 更像一个 虚拟药剂师：

• 分诊助手：先帮用户收集症状，降低医生工作量。
• 个性化推荐：根据用药历史和症状反馈，推荐治疗方案。
• 自动续方：让处方管理和复购一键完成，提升留存率。

未来潜力：如果 AI 能真正合规完成“第一诊断”，那就是 HIMS 招到的一个 24 小时不下班的药师。四、护城河：便利、隐私与品牌

• 便利性：不用挂号排队，药送到家。
• 隐私性：尤其是敏感的性健康、心理健康，用户更愿意线上解决。
• 品牌调性：Hims & Hers 把医疗做得“轻松、时尚”，广告更像生活方式品牌，而不是冷冰冰的药企。
• 规模优势：订阅用户多，采购成本低，形成良性循环。

五、对手们：Ro 与传统药店

• Ro（Roman Health）：打法几乎一样，也是互联网医疗新贵。但 Ro 没上市，融资压力大。
• 传统药店（CVS、Walgreens）：巨头也在做数字医疗，但体验笨重，和 HIMS 的轻量 App 差距大。
• 细分专科 App：比如 Talkspace 专注心理健康，但 HIMS 胜在“药 + 服务 + 品牌”的一体化模式。

六、近期关注点

• 订阅增长：市场关注 HIMS 是否能继续保持每季度 10–15 万的新增用户节奏（来源：公司公告）。
• 盈利表现：2024 Q4，HIMS 实现 GAAP 盈利，这是互联网医疗领域的少见案例。能否延续成为行业观察重点。
• AI 应用落地：AI 药剂师能否进一步提升效率与留存率，是投资者和分析师跟进的方向。
• 新药品类拓展：公司在公告和公开采访中提及，正在探索 GLP-1 减肥药和慢病管理市场。

一句话总结HIMS 就像“互联网药房的房东”，靠药品订阅稳定收租；AI 则是新请来的“虚拟药剂师”，帮忙分诊、续方、提升复购；Ro 是隔壁竞争药铺，但融资吃紧；传统药店像老旧百货，转型不利。最终谁能笑到最后，要看年轻人愿意在哪家“药店”长期续租健康。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

The pinbar reversal is one of the most-used price action signals in trading. It reflects a battle between buyers and sellers where one side attempts to push the market further in their favour, but is met with an observable and often strong rejection. The resulting full pinbar candle leaves a long “wick” showing where price was rejected, and usually has a small body showing where it finally closed.It suggests that momentum has shifted — traders tried to push through support or resistance but were overwhelmed by opposing pressure. This makes the pinbar a valuable signal when it forms at key levels.

Bearish Pinbar Reversal

A bearish pinbar forms after price has been moving upwards to a resistance level, but despite a test during the life of a candle, ultimately fails to hold. The long upper wick shows rejection of higher prices, suggesting sellers could be taking control:

A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong push into a resistance zone.B: Pinbar (long upper wick) → rejection of higher prices as sellers absorb demand.C: Confirmation candle (bearish close) → follow-through selling that validates the reversal and closes BELOW the pinbar candle body.You can see a real-world example of this on the BTCUSD - 1 hourly chart:[caption id="attachment_712324" align="aligncenter" width="582"]

Entry point at ''E'' as confirmation candle close below pinbar body is needed.[/caption]

Bullish Pinbar Reversal

A bullish pinbar forms after the price has been moving downwards into support, but fails to hold below that level. The long lower wick shows rejection of lower prices, suggesting an absence of further selling pressure, with buyers expecting a bounce of the rejected support level.

A: Prior decline (bear candles) → strong push down into a support zone.B: Pinbar (long lower wick) → rejection of lower prices as buyers absorb selling.C: Confirmation candle (bullish close) → follow-through buying that confirms the reversal and closes ABOVE the pinbar candle body.You can see a real-world example of this on the USDJPY - 30-minute chart:[caption id="attachment_712327" align="aligncenter" width="614"]

Strong pinbar reversal with confirmation candle immediate after pinbar. Entry at E at candle close.[/caption]

Stop Placement and Exits for Pinbar Set-ups

Risk management is critical when trading pinbar setups. A common approach is to place the stop-loss beyond the pinbar wick (above the upper wick in a bearish pinbar, or below the lower wick in a bullish pinbar).This ensures if the market pushes past the level of rejection, the original trading idea is no longer valid, and an exit would likely be wise. For other general exits, traders will often:

• Target the next logical support or resistance zone,
• Use a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1),
• Or trail stops behind subsequent swing highs/lows to capture larger moves.

As with all trading strategies, the key is consistency in action. Exits should be planned before entering the trade, not improvised on emotional whims during the life of the trade.

Final Thoughts

The pinbar reversal setup captures shifts in market sentiment in a clear, visual way. Its popularity amongst traders is a reflection of its successes and its relative simplicity, even for less experienced traders. By combining context (support/resistance zones), structure (A/B/C sequence), and disciplined risk management, traders can use pinbars as part of a robust price action strategy.However, it is worth noting that not every pinbar is significant. The most reliable signals occur at meaningful levels, with confirmation from the next candle. Invest some of your time practicing, seeing how many you can spot on various historical charts (and of course, make notes on what happened next) to build confidence in recognition before trading them live.

Market Character is the big sister of Market Structure. While Market Structure can show the framework of price highs and lows, Market Character reveals the behaviour of price moves in greater detail.Market character takes into account the speed of price movement, changing volatility, and the level of conviction behind the move.The combination of Break of Market Structure (BOS) and Change in Market Character (CIMC) can form a powerful duo for reading price action with greater clarity and understanding.

What is Market Character?

If market structure is about the price map over a period of time — indicating the formation of highs, lows, and swings — then market character is about the personality of price movement during the life of such a trend.Two markets can look similar in structure but may have behaved very differently over the same time period.One may have trended relatively smoothly with measured impulses to the upside and shallow retracements in price before trend continuation, whereas the other may be choppier in nature, hesitating regularly, with more frequent false breaks. This 'how it moves' is what we mean by character.Key aspects of market character include:

• Momentum: Are moves strong and one-sided, or hesitant?
• Volatility: Are price ranges expanding or compressing?
• Reaction to levels: Do support and resistance break cleanly or have frequent and prolonged pauses?
• Consistency: Are breakouts following through or reversing and forming a series of false breakouts?
• Session tone: Are there relationships associated with different times of the trading day consistent with new session times? e.g., start of European or US sessions.

BOS and CIMC in Tandem

Break of Market Structure (BOS) occurs when the old pattern of swings is violated. For example, when an uptrend shows its first lower low. Change in Market Character (CIMC) is the confirmation that the way the market moves has shifted. For example, momentum may slow, volatility may show changes, or support/resistance breaches may be more/ less compelling in nature. A BOS without a change in character is often a false alarm. Whereas a BOS followed by a CIMC is a much stronger sign of a genuine shift.

Momentum Shifts

In a strong uptrend, price rallies are invariably strong, and pullbacks or price retracements are shallow. If rallies start weakening while retracements deepen or show a weaker recovery, momentum may be fading.Why it matters: Weakening momentum makes trend continuation less reliable.How to confirm: A flattening moving average slope or MACD histograms decreasing in size or signal line crosses over the histogram level (when in a long trade and vice versa for short), suggests that momentum is running out.

Volatility Regime Change

Markets alternate between calm, controlled moves and fast, wide swings. A sudden shift is a character change.Why it matters: Stop placement and expectations must adapt to the current market normal; otherwise, trades may be prematurely closed due to increased market noise.How to confirm: ATR rising shows volatility expansion; ATR falling shows compression. Using an ATR multiple for stop placement accounts for this volatility change. Bollinger Bands placed on your chart may offer another visual cue as the bands show narrowing or widening as volatility changes.

Reaction to Key Levels

Markets that have previously rewarded breakout trades may start to reject new breakouts and snap back into a previous price range. They will then limp through the level (often with reduced volume), suggesting buying or selling pressure may not have the required levels to produce a sustained move. How to confirm: The number one sign of rejection is if a candle closes back in range (even if earlier in the candle showed potential promise). Volume is also a strong indicator. If volume is lacking or price fails to follow through on a single slightly higher volume bar, then character may have shifted.

Liquidity and Session Tone

Markets behave differently at different times of day. A shift aligned with session opening times is often a change in character as new information comes around these times, and a different set of traders enter the market.Why it matters: The 'best time to trade' may change depending on the instruments and timeframe(s) you are trading, How to confirm: Session indicators or volume profiles can highlight which hours show the strongest moves. Measuring relative volume may be worth exploring, i.e., comparing the current volume with the standard profile for that day and time.

Final Thoughts

A Break of Market Structure (BOS) is your early warning that the pricing story may be changing. A Change in Market Character (CIMC) is confirmation that the behaviour has shifted, and a new set of opportunities could be developing.Using both together can give clear clues as to whether those potential opportunities add weight to your thinking or are worth trading.

Even during the strongest of market trends, prices do not move in straight lines for long.Nor do they move in random lines. Price structure has a tendency to be more like a wave, creating a visual rhythm on a chart. You can think of market structure as the framework on which all price action sits. If you can read structure clearly, it helps everything else make more sense and adds more weight to your decision-making.

Key Principles of Market Structure

Trends vs. Ranges

What you see on a chart is a reflection of sentiment toward the asset you are looking at in real time. Markets will either be trending (moving in one direction for a period of time) or ranging (moving sideways between two price points).A trend shows a strong imbalance between buyers and sellers, while a range shows balance and potential uncertainty about what should happen next.Recognising which environment the price action is in is vital. Trend strategies will often fail in a range, and range strategies will often be punished in a strong trend.

Swing Points

Swing highs and lows are fundamental pieces of price information and are the turning points of price. In an uptrend, the market trend builds with higher swing highs and higher swing lows. In a downtrend, it does the opposite. These points help traders map the direction and strength of a move. A failure to form the expected swing can be an early warning sign of change — a ‘break of market structure’.

Support and Resistance

Past swing levels often act as areas where traders make decisions. A prior swing high may act as resistance (a ceiling where price struggles to break higher), and a prior swing low may act as support (a floor where price struggles to break lower). This happens because many orders — stops, entries, or take-profits — are clustered at these levels.

Order Flow Reflection

Market structure is a reflection of order flow. Simple supply and demand based on the perception that an asset is under- or overpriced compared to its valuation.This is a battle between buyers and sellers over a succession of candles on the chosen timeframe you are looking at. If a series of higher highs is being made, it shows that sentiment-driven buying pressure is consistently strong enough to push prices to new levels. If that rhythm breaks, it tells us something has changed in the underlying supply/demand balance.

Fractality

The strongest structure (arguably) is fractal. What looks like potential noise or range forming on a daily chart may be a clear structure on a 30-minute chart, and vice versa. Imagine you have a group of 100 traders. 25 trade a 15-minute chart, 25 trade an hourly, 25 trade a 4-hourly, and 25 trade a daily.That means a confirmed trade on one timeframe has 25 interested participants, whereas if there is agreement on three, you have 75 traders about to press the entry button. In practical terms, a common approach is to use one or more higher timeframes for context and a short timeframe for entry.The image below shows an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows marked in green and red circles as the trend develops, and then a final breach of the previous swing low — a break of market structure.[caption id="attachment_712309" align="aligncenter" width="686"]

Chart showing the break of market structure[/caption]

What Is a Break of Market Structure?

A Break of Market Structure (BOS) happens when the price no longer follows the established rhythm it has been in for a period of time.Break of Market structure involves either:

• Price stops making higher highs and instead makes a lower low in an uptrend
• Price stops making lower lows and instead makes a higher high in a downtrend

This is the first sign that the “previous market story” that has brought the price to its current level may no longer apply. However, this doesn’t guarantee a full reversal. It may just see price move into a rangebound or sideways holding pattern until more information comes to the market.The bottom line is that it could be a critical clue that the balance of power between buyers and sellers has now shifted.With open trades you may have, it could be the time to consider exiting and moving into something else that is showing a new trend or continuation using the same market structure principles.

Why Is BOS Important to Traders?

Early Warning of Reversal

A BOS can be the very first sign that a trend is ending. Catching the shift early means avoiding overstaying in a trade or getting ready to position yourself for a potential trade in a new direction. Of course, this is a “get ready” and you would only take action when all confluence factors are in place as per your trading plan. i.e., don’t assume it is good until there is evidence that it is actually happening.

Liquidity Insight

Stop clusters are areas where many traders place their stop-loss orders, place profit targets, and where pending orders for entry may also be sitting. Many automated trading models are also primed to take action on a break of market structure within their coding.All of these can create pauses or reversals. Once these have all been swept away, this can be a signal of a BOS, and new momentum may be emerging.This can create a “liquidity sweep.” A liquidity sweep occurs when the price pushes temporarily beyond a swing high/low, triggering stops and attracting breakout traders, before snapping back the other way. In charting terms, you may see a one or two-candle “probe” beyond a key level before reversing. In practical terms, you can account for this in your decision-making by (for example) giving a little space below a previous swing high/low.

Helps Manage Risk

If you’re in a trend trade, a BOS against your position tells you to tighten stops, scale out, or exit. It’s a clear signal that your initial trading idea may no longer be valid, or it might be time to lock in any profits.

Framework for Strategy

Many discretionary traders and automated model builders create whole strategies around BOS events. For example, entering after a liquidity sweep and break, or waiting for retests of the broken market structure levels.

Final Thoughts

Market structure can give you a useful trading map of the evolution of sentiment behind a price move. Understanding this can help you define and act upon a break of structure, which is telling you when the map has changed (or is about to).By developing a greater understanding of the principles of structure, learning what BOS means in practice, and recognising related concepts like stop clusters and liquidity sweeps, traders can gain invaluable insights that help them take practical action to take for entry and exit decision-making.The reality is that most effective strategies will have these principles at their base. A BOS, especially when confirmed with context and market character, is one of the clearest signs of that shift.

The “Magnificent Seven” technology companies are expected to invest a combined $385 billion into AI by the end of 2025.

‍Microsoft is positioning itself as the platform leader. Nvidia dominates the underlying AI infra. Google leads in research. Meta is building open-source tech. Amazon – AI agents. Apple — on-device integration. And Tesla pioneering autonomous vehicles and robots.

With such enormous sums pouring into AI, is this a winner-take-all game?

Or will each of the Mag Seven be able to thrive in the AI future?

Microsoft: The AI Everywhere Strategy

Microsoft has made one of the biggest bets on AI out of the Mag Seven — adopting the philosophy that AI should be everywhere.

Through its deep partnership with OpenAI, of which it is a 49% shareholder, the company has integrated GPT-5 across its entire ecosystem.

‍Key initiatives:

• GPT-5 integration across consumer, enterprise, and developer tools through Microsoft 365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, and Azure AI Foundry
• Azure AI Foundry for unified AI development platform with model router technology
• Copilot ecosystem spanning productivity, coding, and enterprise applications with real-time model selection
• $100 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025

Microsoft’s centrepiece is Copilot, which can now detect whether a prompt requires advanced reasoning and route to GPT-5's deeper reasoning model.

This (theoretically) means high-quality AI outputs become invisible infrastructure rather than a skill users need to learn.

However, this all-in bet on OpenAI does come with some risks. It is putting all its eggs in OpenAI's basket, tying its future success to a single partnership.

Elon Musk warned that "OpenAI is going to eat Microsoft alive"[/caption]

Google: The Research Strategy

Google’s approach is to fund research to build the most intelligent models possible. This research-first strategy creates a pipeline from scientific discovery to commercial products — what it hopes will give it an edge in the AI race.

‍Key initiatives:

• Over 4 million developers building with Gemini 2.5 Pro and Flash
• Ironwood TPU offering 3,600 times better performance compared to Google’s first TPU
• AI search overviews reaching 2 billion monthly users across Google Search
• DeepMind breakthroughs: AlphaEvolve for algorithm discovery, Aeneas for ancient text interpretation, AlphaQubit for quantum error detection, and AI co-scientist systems

Google’s AI research branch, DeepMind, brings together two of the world's leading AI research labs — Google Brain and DeepMind — the former having invented the Transformer architecture that underpins almost all modern large language models.

The bet is that breakthrough research in areas like quantum computing, protein folding, and mathematical reasoning will translate into a competitive advantage for Google.

Today, we're introducing AlphaEarth Foundations from @GoogleDeepMind , an AI model that functions like a virtual satellite which helps scientists make informed decisions on critical issues like food security, deforestation, and water resources. AlphaEarth Foundations provides a… pic.twitter.com/L1rk2Z5DKk

— Google AI (@GoogleAI) July 30, 2025

Meta: The Open Source Strategy

Meta has made a somewhat contrarian bet in its approach to AI: giving away their tech for free. The company's Llama 4 models, including recently released Scout and Maverick, are the first natively multi-modal open-weight models available.

‍Key initiatives:

• Llama 4 Scout and Maverick - first open-weight natively multi-modal models
• AI Studio that enables the creation of hundreds of thousands of AI characters
• $65-72 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025

This open-source strategy directly challenges the closed-source big players like GPT and Claude. By making AI models freely available, Meta is essentially commoditizing what competitors are trying to monetize. Meta's bet is that if AI models become commoditized, the real value will be in the infrastructure that sits on top. Meta's social platforms and massive user base give it a natural advantage if this eventuates.

Meta's recent quarter was also "the best example to date of AI having a tangible impact on revenue and earnings growth at scale," according to tech analyst Gene Munster.

However, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for Meta. Their most anticipated release, Llama Behemoth, has all but been scrapped due to performance issues. And Meta is now rumored to be developing a closed-source Behemoth alternative, despite their open-source mantra.

Amazon: The AI Agent Strategy

Amazon’s strategy is to build the infrastructure for AI that can take actions — booking meetings, processing orders, managing workflows, and integrating with enterprise systems.

Rather than building the best AI model, Amazon has focused its efforts on becoming the platform where all AI models live.

‍Key initiatives:

• Amazon Bedrock offering 100+ foundation models from leading AI companies,  including OpenAI models.
• $100 million additional investment in AWS Generative AI Innovation Center for agentic AI development
• Amazon Bedrock AgentCore enabling deployment and scaling of AI agents with enterprise-grade security
• $118 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025

The goal is to become the “orchestrator” that lets companies mix and match the best models for different tasks.

Amazon’s AgentCore will provide the underlying memory management, identity controls, and tool integration needed for these companies to deploy AI agents safely at scale.

This approach offers flexibility, but does carry some risks. Amazon is essentially positioning itself as the middleman for AI. If AI models become commoditized or if companies prefer direct relationships with AI providers, Amazon's systems could become redundant.

Nvidia: The Infra Strategy

Nvidia is the one selling the shovels for the AI gold rush. While others in the Mag Seven battle to build the best AI models and applications, Nvidia provides the fundamental computing infrastructure that makes all their efforts possible.

This hardware-first strategy means Nvidia wins regardless of which company ultimately dominates. As AI advances and models get larger, demand for Nvidia's chips only increases.

‍Key initiatives:

• Blackwell architecture achieving $11 billion in Q2 2025 revenue, the fastest product ramp in company history
• New chip roadmap: Blackwell Ultra (H2 2025), Vera Rubin (H2 2026), Rubin Ultra (H2 2027)
• Data center revenue reaching $35.6 billion in Q2, representing 91% of total company sales
• Manufacturing scale-up with 350 plants producing 1.5 million components for Blackwell chips

With an announced product roadmap of Blackwell Ultra (2025), Vera Rubin (2026), and Rubin Ultra (2027), Nvidia has created a system where the AI industry must continuously upgrade to Nvidia’s newest tech to stay competitive.

This also means that Nvidia, unlike the others in the Mag Seven, has almost no direct AI spending — it is the one selling, not buying.

However, Nvidia is not indestructible. The company recently halted its H20 chip production after the Chinese government effectively blocked the chip, which was intended as a workaround to U.S. export controls.

Apple: The On-Device Strategy

Apple's AI strategy is focused on privacy, integration, and user experience. Apple Intelligence, the AI system built into iOS, uses on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute to help ensure user data is protected when using AI.

‍Key initiatives:

• Apple Intelligence with multi-model on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute
• Enhanced Siri with natural language understanding and ChatGPT integration for complex queries
• Direct developer access to on-device foundation models, enabling offline AI capabilities
• $10-11 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025

The drawback of this on-device approach is that it requires powerful hardware from the user's end.  Apple Intelligence can only run on devices with a minimum of 8GB RAM, creating a powerful upgrade cycle for Apple but excluding many existing users.

Tesla: The Robo Strategy

Tesla's AI strategy focuses on two moonshot applications: Full Self-Driving vehicles and humanoid robots.

This is the 'AI in the physical world' play. While others in the Mag Seven are focused on the digital side of AI, Tesla is building machines that use AI for physical operations.

‍Key initiatives:

• Plans for 5,000-10,000 Optimus robots in 2025, scaling to 50,000 in 2026
• Robotaxi service targeting availability to half the U.S. population by EOY 2025
• AI6 chip development with Samsung for unified training across vehicles, robots, and data centers
• $5 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025

This play is exponentially harder to develop than digital AI, and the markets have reflected low confidence that Tesla can pull it off.

TSLA has been the worst-performing Mag Seven stock of 2025, down 18.37% in H1 2025.

However, if Tesla’s strategy is successful, it could be far more valuable than other AI plays. Robots and autonomous vehicles could perform actual labour worth trillions of dollars annually.

The $385 billion Question

The Mag Seven are starting to see real revenue come in from their AI investments. But they're pouring that money (and more) back into AI, betting that the boom is just getting started.

The platform players like Microsoft and Amazon are betting on becoming essential infrastructure. Nvidia’s play is to sell the underlying hardware to everyone. Google and Meta compete on capability and access. While Apple and Tesla target specific use cases.

The $385 billion question is which of the Magnificent Seven has bet the right way? Or will a new player rise and usurp the long-standing tech giants altogether?

‍You can access all Magnificent Seven stocks and thousands of other Share CFDs on GO Markets.

提到 Adobe，你可能第一反应就是 PS 修图，什么“P 个证件照”、“把前任抠掉”、“给自己多修两根头发”。但别小看这家公司，它早已不只是修图工具，而是一个彻头彻尾的“内容生意收租户”。本文带你轻松了解 Adobe 的商业模式、护城河，以及它和竞争对手们的市场动态。一、Adobe 卖的是什么？三朵云撑起的江山根据 Adobe 官网及 2024 财报披露，目前其业务主要分成三大板块：

1. Creative Cloud：包含 Photoshop、Illustrator、Premiere Pro、After Effects、Lightroom，以及新推出的生成式 AI 工具 Firefly 和 Express。很多 APP 界面、广告海报、短视频包装的制作工具都来自这里。
2. Document Cloud：以 PDF 和电子签名为核心。PDF 已成为全球文档标准之一。Adobe 也在 Acrobat 中引入了 AI 助手，还推出 Acrobat Studio，帮助用户更高效处理合同、报告等文档。
3. Experience Cloud：这是企业级营销与数据平台，包含实时客户数据平台、自动化用户旅程工具，并在 2024 年推出了 GenStudio，结合 AI 生成营销内容。

二、钱从哪来？订阅才是大头根据 Adobe 2024 财年年报（来源：Adobe Investor Relations）：

• 订阅模式为主要收入2024 财年，Adobe 总营收 215 亿美元，其中 95% 来自订阅（约 205 亿美元）。传统的一次性授权软件收入已降至不足 4 亿美元。
• 创作与文档工具收入Creative Cloud 收入 127 亿美元，Document Cloud 收入 32 亿美元，两者合计 159 亿美元。Adobe 将其归入 Digital Media 板块。
• 企业客户贡献Digital Experience 板块实现收入 54 亿美元，主要来自大型企业签署的营销与数据服务合同。
• 收入确定性截至 2024 财年末，Adobe 的 年化经常性收入（ARR）达到 173 亿美元，未来待确认合同收入（RPO）约 200 亿美元。这显示其订阅模式具备较强稳定性。

一句话总结：Adobe 的核心盈利模式是“工具即服务”，持续收取订阅费用。三、AI 的角色：Adobe 的“新店小二”Adobe 在生成式 AI 上的布局强调合规与版权安全：

• Firefly：训练素材主要来自 Adobe Stock 和公共领域资源，降低版权风险。生成内容带有“内容凭证”标识，便于追溯。
• 收费模式：Adobe 引入“生成点数”机制，用户使用 Firefly 生成图片或视频会消耗额度，不同订阅计划包含的点数不同。
• 业务规模：在 2025 财年 Q1 财报电话会（来源：Adobe IR Conference Call），管理层表示 AI 产品已带来约 1.25 亿美元收入，公司预计全年会进一步增长。

四、护城河：行业标准的力量

• Photoshop、Illustrator、Premiere 等长期在专业创意和影视制作中占据主导地位。
• PDF 格式已成为国际通用文档标准，Acrobat 和 Sign 构建了从生成、流转到签署的一体化链条。
• 丰富的教程、插件、模板、认证培训构成完整生态。
• 在 AI 时代，“内容凭证”等安全与合规机制成为 Adobe 的新壁垒。

五、竞争者：Figma 与 Canva

• Figma：Adobe 曾计划以 200 亿美元收购，但因监管原因未能完成。Figma 已独立上市，并将在 2025 年 9 月 3 日公布财报（来源：Figma 公告）。市场将关注其盈利能力和用户增长情况。
• Canva：2024 年收购了 Affinity 三件套，进一步进入专业设计市场。其优势在于简洁易用，受到中小企业和个人创作者的青睐。

六、近期关注点

• Document Cloud 增速：2024 财年增长 18%，高于 Creative Cloud 的增速。
• AI 收入贡献：能否在 2025 财年内实现翻倍增长，将是投资者和分析师关注的重点。
• Experience Cloud 的渗透率：GenStudio 等产品能否成为企业营销日常工具。
• 定价调整效果：Adobe 在北美推出 Creative Cloud Pro，并提升 AI 配额，价格上调后的市场接受度仍待观察。

一句话总结Adobe 的商业模式就像“房东”，靠订阅模式获得稳定现金流；AI 则是它刚上岗的“新店小二”，未来贡献尚待验证；而 Figma 与 Canva 则是市场上不同定位的竞争者，后续发展仍需关注官方财报与市场反馈。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903