市场资讯及洞察
三家中央银行同时决定利率，布伦特原油在每桶100美元左右大幅波动，中东战争正在实时改写通胀前景。无论本周发生什么，都可能为2026年剩余时间的市场定下基调。
事实速览
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行（RBA） 周二宣布其下一次现金利率决定，市场目前认为第二次上调至4.1％的可能性为66％。
- 一些分析师警告说，到年底，伊朗战争可能会将美国的通货膨胀率推迟到3.5％，并将美联储的降息推迟到9月，这使本周的联邦公开市场委员会点阵图成为多年来最受关注的点阵图。
- 伊朗发起官方媒体称其为 “自战争开始以来最激烈的行动”，此后，布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶100美元。
澳洲联储：澳大利亚会再次加息吗？
在2025年下半年通货膨胀率大幅回升之后，澳大利亚央行在2月份的会议上两年来首次将现金利率提高至3.85％。
现在的问题是，在下一季度消费者价格指数公布之前，它是否会再次发生变化，该数据要到4月29日才能公布。
副州长安德鲁·豪瑟在会前承认，决策者面临着一个真正分歧的决定，这个决定是由国内相互矛盾的经济信号和国外日益加剧的不稳定性造成的。
金融市场目前认为再次加息的可能性约为66％，无论周一发生什么情况，5月份的加息几乎是肯定的。
关键日期
- 澳洲联储现金利率决定： 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 2:30
- 布洛克州长新闻发布会： 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月17日星期二下午 3:30
监视器
- 布洛克可能在5月提及进一步加息
- 澳元/美元立即做出反应。
- 澳大利亚证券交易所银行和房地产投资信托基金。
联邦公开市场委员会：可能持有，所有人都在关注点阵图
联邦公开市场委员会将于3月17日至18日举行会议，政策声明定于美国东部时间3月18日下午2点发布，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会定于下午2点30分。芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察显示，美联储将利率维持在3.50％至3.75％的可能性为99％。
真正的行动在经济预测摘要（SEP）和点图中。目前的中点显示2026年削减了25个基点。如果转为两次削减，那对风险资产来说是鸽派和利好的。如果转为零降息或在预测中增加加息，市场可能会朝另一个方向做出反应。
使事情进一步复杂化的是，鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月23日届满。凯文·沃什是接替他的主要候选人，他认为他在货币政策上更加鹰派。鲍威尔对这一转变的任何评论都可能独立于利率决定本身推动市场。
关键日期
- 联邦公开市场委员会利率决定 + SEP/DOT 图: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:00
- 鲍威尔新闻发布会: 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四凌晨 4:30
监视器
- 鲍威尔关于石油和关税通胀的措辞。
- 2年期美国国债收益率反应。
- 芝加哥商品交易所 FedWatch 会根据9月份减产概率的任何变化重新定价。
日本银行：可能会提前进一步收紧政策
日本央行将于3月18日至19日举行会议，预计将在东京时间周四上午做出决定。目前的政策利率为0.75％（30年来的最高水平），2026年1月的会议以8票对1票维持不变。
上田州长将三月份的会议归类为 “现场会议”，并指出，如果Shunto春季工资谈判得出强于预期的结果，进一步紧缩的时间表可能 “提前”。
这些结果将在本周开始公布，这使它们成为日本央行决定的关键投入。野村预计，2026年申通的工资将增长约5.0％，包括资历，基本薪酬增长约3.4％。如果结果证实了这一轨迹，那么3月份加息的理由就会大大加强。
复杂之处在于全球背景。日本大约90％的能源需求是进口的，而每桶约100美元的石油正在推高进口成本，并有可能增加通货膨胀压力。日本央行在全球石油冲击中加息将是一个异常大胆的举动。
大多数市场参与者仍然倾向于在本次会议上暂停，4月或7月被视为更有可能采取下一步行动的时机。
关键日期
- 日本央行政策利率决定（目前为0.75％）： 澳大利亚东部夏令时间3月19日星期四上午
监视器
- Shunto 的工资业绩是 3 月份加息的主要触发因素。
- 4月和7月的上田新闻发布会语言和前瞻性指导。
- 美元/日元的反应。
石油：持续波动
本周早些时候，布伦特原油短暂触及每桶119.50美元，随后下跌17％，至80美元以下，随后因华盛顿发出有关霍尔木兹海峡的喜忧参半的信号而反弹至95美元。
截至周四，由于伊朗对商业航运发动了新的攻击，而国际能源署的储备金未能带来有意义的缓解，布伦特原油价格回升至100美元以上。
在长期冲突对能源基础设施造成损害的情况下，分析师估计，到2026年底，消费者价格指数可能升至3.5％，第二季度汽油价格接近每加仑5美元。
在本周，石油充当宏观元变量。每一个地缘政治头条、停火信号、油轮袭击、储备金释放和特朗普的言论都可能实时影响股票、债券和货币。
监视器
- 任何恢复的霍尔木兹海峡油轮航行。
- 国际能源署紧急储备金发布。
- 特朗普关于伊朗的声明。
- 能源板块股票。
热门话题最近，油价一直在不断上涨，扰乱了美国应对通胀问题的计划。同时，欧佩克，尤其是沙特和俄罗斯的合作也使美国逐渐失去了对原油市场的控制权。在拜登政府的任期内，美国大幅减少了战略原油储备，这引发了一些共和党人的批评。因此，在即将到来的选举年里，拜登政府可能会小心谨慎，但供应缺口可能不会等待政府的调整。过去两年，高盛作为华尔街最大的能源推手，准确预测了2022年油价的历史性飙升，但今年油价大幅下跌，导致其明星分析师兼首席大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie辞职。然而，油价自年中以来反弹了30%，而摩根大通近期悄然接管了能源市场的领导地位。
摩根大通的能源分析师Christyan Malek在报告中表示，他们的“超级周期”系列报告再次强势回归。鉴于石油行业的投资逐渐减少，绿色能源单独难以满足全球能源需求，Malek预测中期油价可能会升至每桶150美元，比当前布伦特原油价格高出60%。Malek指出，自6月以来油价上涨超过30%，但能源股票一直表现不佳。摩根大通看好全球能源市场，重申每桶80美元以上的长期目标油价。在“超级周期IV”报告中，他们认为短期至中期油价可能会升至每桶150美元，长期保持在每桶80-100美元。支持油价上涨的主要因素包括：1.更长期高息率的前景减缓了资本流入新的供应；2.股权成本上升推动了布伦特原油的现金盈亏平衡点超过每桶75美元，因为公司向股东返还更多现金，从而提高了石油的边际成本；3.体制和政策导向压力推动了向绿色能源的过渡，并引发了对需求见顶的担忧。总之，这是一个在更长期内高油价前景下的能源宏观展望，因为该行业难以证明在2030年之后大规模投资的合理性。摩根大通预测，到2025年，全球石油市场将出现每日110万桶的供需缺口，到2030年，这个缺口将扩大到每日710万桶。这种巨大的短缺将需要油价大幅上涨。那么，全球能源股市还有增长空间吗？摩根大通提到，全球石油市场已从需求驱动的风险转变为供应驱动的风险，即风险从需求端转向供应端。分析显示，满足石油市场供需缺口只能依赖沙特的未利用产能，这将使他们能够在2025-2030年期间满足创纪录的约55%的边际需求增长。相比之下，2005-2018年期间的平均增长仅为18%。OPEC增加产量并用尽其未利用产能（约420-430万桶/日，沙特320万桶/日）可能会导致大约每桶20美元的供应风险溢价。此外，公司的现金收益不仅支持长期每桶80美元以上的油价，而且表明大型能源公司支付资本支出、股利、债务和现金回报所需的油价持续上升。
Malek将全球能源股的评级提升至“增持”，主要原因包括：1.更积极的宏观前景（他们更喜欢石油而不是天然气，因为前者具有结构性利好特征和OPEC减产导致的较低波动性）；2.企业的现金实际收支平衡（与远期相比），这意味着2024年的自由现金流收益率约为12%，如果油价达到每桶100美元，自由现金流收益率将升至约15%；3.每股收益（EPS）的上行风险。按照市场预期，2024年的油价高于约10%。此外，这些公司的现金回报率大于30%，支撑了相对于市场的有吸引力估值；4.如果全球库存继续下降，油价上涨到一定程度，OPEC可能在未来12个月增加产量。从历史经验来看，这对能源股有利，因为它通常意味着基本面（需求）正在改善。能源股往往在产量增加时与油价出现正向脱钩。尽管自从沙特在6月启动100万桶/日的减产计划以来，油价上涨了30%，但股票只上涨了约10%，也就是说它们出现了负向脱钩。尽管对油价持乐观态度，Malek仍向基本面投资者发出了一个安全预警。尽管认为该行业处于结构性牛市，油价应该正常化走高，但预计油价和能源股票将在更宽的价格范围内交易，而较高的“加权平均资本成本”（WACC）可能会加剧油价的波动性。未来几年，建立方向性多头头寸的投资者可能需要通过绝对价格修正来在综合能源市场中寻找方向，尤其是对于具有较高石油贝塔系数的股票。在供需基本面仍然紧张的情况下，能源板块应该能够跑赢股市大盘。此外，由于股票估值面临着“更长期高息”带来的风险，当整体股市下跌时，能源行业通常表现优于大盘，因为该行业可作为宏观对冲通胀、利率和地缘政治风险的工具。摩根大通认为全球经济能够承受三位数的名义油价，因为按实际价格计算，油价仍低于2008年和2011年的峰值，也低于“需求破坏区”（即石油在全球GDP中的比重大于5%，而目前仅约为2.5%）。针对电动汽车兴起对化石燃料的威胁引发的石油需求见顶问题，摩根大通则认为这是一种错误的看法。在投资期限内，即到2030年，他们认为石油需求不会见顶，因为需要大量燃料来弥补全球能源赤字。由于供应链、基础设施和关键材料的瓶颈，清洁能源系统在未来十年内还无法足够成熟，捕获技术也不够完善，也无法向终端用户提供足够的“清洁”电力。因此，这对传统燃料施加了更大的压力，以填补缺口并满足新兴市场带动的不断增长的需求。Malek警告称，如果不增加石油和天然气的资本支出，全球将继续面临能源短缺，并可能在未来十年内多次发生石油主导的能源危机，可能比去年欧洲发生的天然气危机严重得多。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
In the lead-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision this week, the market has seen significant turmoil. Firstly from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, followed by the news that Credit Suisse’s largest financial backer is unlikely to provide further financial support. This led to Credit Suisse stock plunging by more than 28% and taking with it, the Eurozone bond yields and the Euro.
President Lagarde from the ECB had been signaling to the market, on multiple occasions, since the previous meeting that the ECB will hike rates by 50bps at the March meeting. However, with the current uncertainty especially with the banking failures seen in the US, the market has begun pricing in the possibility that the ECB hikes rates with more caution by deciding on 35bps rather than 50bps at the March meeting. This has led the EURUSD to reverse all recent gains, turning down from the 1.0750 price level to trade along the key support level of 1.0540.
If the ECB releases a decision to hike rates by less than 50bps, this would be a major red flag to the market and also indicate a slowdown in its path of monetary policy tightening, which could see the EURUSD continue with the current downward momentum. If the price breaks below the current support level and the interim price level of 1.0440, the EURUSD could see significant moves downside, supported by the cross-over of the MACD, with the next key support level at 1.0220, which was the previous swing low in November 2022. Alternatively, if the ECB maintains its previous stance and decides to hike rates by 50bps at this meeting, the EURUSD could see brief relief.
However, it would be unlikely that the price would reverse significantly, with the current market uncertainties likely to maintain the downward pressures and the 1.08 resistance level likely to hold firm.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) announced the latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Walgreens reported revenue of $34.862 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 (up by 3.3% year-over-year) vs. $33.528 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.16 per share (down by 27.2% year-over-year) vs. $1.103 per share estimate. CEO commentary "WBA exited a solid second quarter with acceleration in February, adding to our confidence in driving strong growth in the second half of the year. With the closing of VillageMD's acquisition of Summit Health, WBA is now one of the largest players in primary care, with best-in-class assets across the care continuum.
Both Walgreens and Boots are performing well by delivering compelling value to consumers, playing a critical role as community health destinations, and successfully navigating a challenging environment. We will continue to take bold actions to create sustainable long-term shareholder value," CEO of the company, Rosalind Brewer said in a press release. The stock was up by around 1% in pre-market trading following the latest results.
The stock is down by 11.83% year-to-date at $32.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -7.29% 3 months: -14.02% Year-to-date: -11.83% 1 year: -31.12% Walgreens Boots Alliance price targets Barclays: $43 Evercore ISI Group: $35 Loop Capital: $45 Morgan Stanley: $37 Truist Securities: $42 JP Morgan: $40 Credit Suisse: $41 Mizuho: $41 Cowen & Co.: $54 Deutsche Bank: $50 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is the 605 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $28.41 billion. You can trade Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) announced Q4 and full-year financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain posted solid results for the quarter – beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported revenue of $164.048 billion (up by 7.3% year-over-year) vs. $159.759 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.71 per share for the quarter vs. $1.518 EPS estimate. Full-year revenues reached $611.3 billion (up by 6.7% vs. a year prior) and EPS at $6.29 per share. CEO commentary ''We’re excited about our momentum.
The team delivered a strong quarter to finish the year, and as our results in the last two quarters show, they acted quickly and aggressively to address the inventory and cost challenges we faced last year. We built momentum in the third quarter and that continues. We are well-positioned to start this fiscal year,'' Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart said in a press release following the latest results.
Stock reaction The results did not have a big impact on the share price Tuesday. The stock was up by 0.61% at $147.21 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +3.29% 3 months: -2.53% Year-to-date: +3.91% 1 year: +6.77% Walmart stock price targets Cowen & Co.: $180 Telsey Advisory Group: $165 Morgan Stanley: $161 Gordon Haskett: $155 Barclays: $159 Oppenheimer: $160 Tigress Financial: $176 UBS: $168 Credit Suisse: $170 Bernstein: $159 Walmart is the 18 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $397.31 billion.
You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The overall risk appetite in the market has increased this week following the news that the banking sector’s issues appear to have been resolved. As a result, the Japanese Yen’s status as a safe haven currency may have been hurt in this risk-on market environment. Paired with the renewed recovery in strength in the DXY, this has led to the USDJPY bouncing off the key support and round number price level of 130 to trade steadily higher.
This move higher was sustained as the price broke through the descending trendline, with the USDJPY rising toward the 133-round number resistance level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 100-period moving average (MA). While the USDJPY could retrace briefly at this resistance area, look for the USDJPY to break beyond the 133 resistance level and 100 MA to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the next resistance level of 135 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level a possible target level. However, watch out for the developing news from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following recent comments that the BoJ could tweak the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) if the economic and price conditions justify phasing out stimulus.
Widening of the target level or removal of the YCC could lead to a significant strengthening of the Japanese Yen.
The USDJPY had been trading steadily higher in February, from the 128.50 support level, up toward the 137 round number resistance level. This move was driven by a combination of fundamental reasons (strengthening of the DXY and overall weakness of the Japanese Yen) and technical setup (the golden cross, where the 50-period Moving Average crossed over the 200-period Moving Average). This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to release its latest decision on its Policy Rate and the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement.
The BoJ is expected to persist with its current stance, maintaining an ultra-lose monetary policy approach as it is the last BoJ policy meeting for Governor Kuroda. However, last week, the yield on the 10-yr Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) consolidated slightly above the 0.5% ceiling adjusted by the BoJ on 20th December 2022. Following the announcement of the increased yield limit, the Japanese Yen strengthened significantly, with the USDJPY trading down from 137.30 to 130.60.
The markets are now watching if the BoJ would take on a similar action again. As the DXY weakened toward the end of the week, the USDJPY was dragged lower, reversing from the 137 resistance level, down to the 135.80 price level to test the 50-period Moving Average. If the price breaks below the Moving Average support level, the USDJPY could trade down to the key support level of 134.50 which coincides with the 38.3% Fibonacci Retracement level.
If the BoJ were to further adjust the yield limits on the 10-yr JGBs, the USDJPY could see a continuation of the downside beyond 134.50, with the next key support level at the 133 price area, formed by the round number and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.