市场资讯及洞察

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10月26日早盘时段，美元指数在110.90附近震荡，目前处于近三周以来的低点，因上周旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示“美联储应避免加息过度而让美国经济陷入主动低迷，现在试试后开始讨论放慢加息速度了”。对加息过猛同样感到不安的还有美联储副主席布雷纳德以及芝加哥联储主席等人，他们更加支撑稳健而缓慢地提升利率。但是，美联储之内也不乏鹰派的声音，也有多个地方联储主席主张机遇目前通胀毫无进展的情况下应该延续激进的加息方案。

可见，不光是市场，美联储内部也有较大的分歧。市场在得知了美联储可能会放缓加息的可能性之后，美元指数连续两周下跌，不过目前仍在109.5-110支撑带之上，等待陆续公布的经济数据得以参考。

明天也就是周四，将会在23:30公布美国第三季度的GDP数据，目前市场的预测值教上一季度有所增长；周五将迎来另一个有关美国通胀的关键数据---PCE物价指数，也是在23:30 公布，PCE以及核心PCE的预测值都高于前值。

本周最后两天公布的数据将会极大的影响到下月初公布的美联储利率决议。如果GDP数据好于预期，并且PCE指数高于预期，那么大概率加息力度不会明显放缓，11月很有可能继续维持75个基点的力度，但若GDP数据大幅不及预期，那这一剂猛药是否敢用也要打个问号了。

回到交易上，目前从日线级别，美元虽有回调，但仍处于上升通道长当中，即将触及0.382的斐波那契回调位置，对于思路清晰，止损坚定的交易者来说，这是一个值得考虑的进场位置，盈亏比划算，有事件推动（通胀数据不好的概率更大），以及利率决议即将来袭，无论是短线还是长线都有进场的理由。保守的止损看在前低的位置附近，更加激进一些的止损可以考虑0.5的斐波那契回调位之下。

当地时间10月24日，英国的执政党 保守党的党首竞选结果公布，前财政大臣苏纳克作为唯一一名候选人，自动当选英国首相，他是英国历史上首位亚裔首相，也是英国两个月以内的第三位首相。苏纳克出任首相后，镑美出现一定回暖，一方面是政策混乱的特拉斯不再执政，另一方面，作为前高盛分析师出任约翰逊政府财政大臣的苏纳克相对于特拉斯来说应该更懂得如何带领英国重振经济。但是对于一个政党来说，团结也是各类政策得以推行的重要因素，许多医院认为他对前首相约翰逊的下台负有责任，苏纳克被质疑是否能够将分裂的保守党团结在一起。

虽然目前英镑出现了阶段性反弹，但是鉴于美元的加息周期并没有结束以及欧洲各类风险事件的潜在威胁，镑美的反弹空间比较有限。目前4小时级别，上方阻力在1.1600-1.1700附近，并且任然处于下行通道当中。若美元继续强势，仍然可以考虑逢低做空的策略。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Rick Shao | GO Markets 专业分析师

The EURUSD is showing some signs of a potential short term break out on the daily and 4-hour time price charts. This is largely a technical breakout, although it is also supported by a shift in sentiment towards growth assets and away from the USD in the last week. Technical Analysis The daily cart shows a long term down trend with the price respecting the trend.

On the daily time frame, the price has broken through the trend line. In addition, the price has broken above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This represents a short-term support level and a good position for a trailing stop loss or hard stop loss.

Looking at the 4-hour chart provides a more direct profit target and entry trigger. The chart shows that the candle sticks are forming into what may become a flag. An entry based on the current price action may be triggered by a breakout of the flag past 1.000 which is also the parity level.

This level also presents as the neckline for a double bottom. This further indicates a potential bottom, or a reversal is about to take place. Using the 50-day Exponential moving average as the position for the stop loss at 0.9914, and the next resistance as a profit target at 1.0200 gives the trade yields a Risk Reward ratio of nearly 2.7.

With volatility surrounding the market being relatively high there is still risks with this trade and traders should be aware of potential macro factors that may impact on the trade.

The UK has had to deal with recessionary fears, sky high energy prices, a cost-of-living crisis, and a breakdown in political leadership. This has caused the GBP to fall to lows not seen since the last century. The British economy has also had to deal with a potential liquidity crisis caused by some of the large UK retirement funds almost bringing down the UK economy however with some support from the Bank of England the situation has in the short term been resolved.

The political pressures have also eased somewhat with Liz Truss stepping down and Rishi Sunak taking over the role of Prime Minister, which may further support the potential for a reversal and show o strength in the pound. With the price so beaten down at some stage it will have to turn around. The question is this reversal about to occur?

Technical Analysis On the weekly chart, the price has been ranging between 1.4369 and 1.1985. Earlier this year the price dropped below the bottom of the range for second time with the only other time being the initial stages of the pandemic. The lower bounds of the range present a potential target if the reversal is validated.

The price has finally started higher and the strength of the weekly candles and the volume supporting the price action indicates that supply is being depleted. The risk for a potential reversal is just how aggressive the long-term moving averages are to the sell side. Both the 50- and 200-week moving averages are still pushing to the downside.

The daily chart shows an interesting picture. The price of the pair is clearly coiling and almost ready to break out of its consolidation. If the price can break out it may provide a short-term target of 1.19853 may provide a potential price to take profit.

With volatility seemingly settling around the UK's economy, the potential for a reversal remains, which may only improve the prospects for the Pound.

Coca-Cola tops Wall Street Q3 estimates The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) reported Q3 financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating Wall Street analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Revenue reported at $11.063 billion (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $10.52 billion expected.

EPS at $0.69 per share (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $0.637 per share estimate. ''Our strong capabilities and consumer insights continue to help us win in the marketplace,'' Coca-Cola CEO, James Quincey said in a press release. ''Our business is resilient amidst a dynamic operating and macroeconomic environment. We are investing in our strong portfolio of brands, which is a cornerstone of our ability to deliver long-term value for our stakeholders,'' Quincey added. Shares of Coca-Cola were up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at $58.49 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +3.39% 3 months: -7.78% Year-to-date: -1.55% 1 year: +7.01% Coca-Cola price targets Deutsche Bank: $59 Wedbush: $63 Morgan Stanley: $68 Credit Suisse: $64 Wells Fargo: $66 HSBC: $76 UBS: $72 JP Morgan: $70 Coca-Cola is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $251.88 billion. You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题

大家都知道，从今年初美国正式开始加息之后，世界股市就几乎进入了下跌——轻微反弹——再下跌的循环。不但美国如此，澳洲也是一样。而在一众下跌板块中，科技股和某些创业初期，现金流依然是负数，依靠借债的股票下跌尤为严重。即便是美国科技板块龙头特斯拉，也从曾经高点下跌超过一半，而其他的一些依然没有实现盈利的电动车企业的下跌更为明显。

对于整个投资界来说，似乎去年还在到处鼓吹的电动车时代，新能源时代一下子又变成了市场嫌弃的臭棋，就连去年名震一时的“木头姐”也在今年黯然被迫辞去了基金经理一职。当年的年华400%的收益率，如今也变成了一年跌40%的悲剧收场。一切似乎都是坏消息，一切似乎都不好听。那是不是所有的板块都是这样呢?当然不是，要不然我还写啥？就当房地产下跌，科技股下跌，银行股下跌，消费股下跌，万物下跌时，却有一个板块奇葩的在过去半年依然逆势上涨，甚至创下历史新高。也正是在这个板块的带动下，帮助澳洲指数成为了目前西方主要国家中下跌比例最低的国家之一。这个板块就是目前被称为澳洲矿业里的下一个时代宠儿：新能源相关矿产企业。其实过去几年我一直在说，澳洲是地球上最幸运的国家，如果一定要谦虚一点，那就加上一个“之一”：相比于欧洲的寒冷和资源贫乏，澳洲有着温暖的气候（墨尔本不算）和极其丰富的资源储量。而如果对比同样资源丰富的美国和加拿大，澳洲也依然丝毫不落下风：澳洲没有美国糟糕的治安和差劲的医疗体系，也没有加拿大寒冷的气候和绝大部分难以挖掘的冻土。虽然澳洲中部和西部内陆地区气候炎热，但是不影响挖矿的运行和开采。从2000年开始至今，澳洲依靠着中国高速的城市化建设，输出了大量的铁矿石，也帮助澳洲自己国内的经济建设取得了很大的成就。但随着目前中国房地产的停滞，未来很难再继续保持对铁矿石需求的连续增加。虽然也许总量需求依然会很大，基数很大。但是增速不在。那怎么办？其实澳洲的矿业企业比我们投资者更精明100倍。

从5年前开始，必和必拓BHP就开始其转型之路：简单来说，就是仅保留其铜，铁，煤，油四大支柱业务，将其他金属开采集中剥离，成立新的S32矿业公司。并且在过去2年继续将石油业务剥离，与Woodside合资成立新的澳洲最大的石油及天然气企业。那脱离出去的那么多业务，以后BHP和中心在哪里呢？一句话形容就是：靠铁和铜吃饱，靠新能源吃好。BHP的策略其实也反映了澳洲矿业的转型：从传统的铁矿石，煤炭，为主，向锂，镍，锌，等电池材料矿业的转型。全世界都知道，未来电动车占据新车销售的比例会越来越高，但是大家也知道，这需要时间，而在这变化的过程中，会有很多新能源车企诞生，也会有很多车企倒闭。可唯一稳赚不赔的，就是给电动车电池供货的原料商了——只要电动车生产的越多，那对于锂矿，对于镍矿的总需求就会越高。甭管你这电池是来自宁德时代，还是三星LG，都需要一样的原材料。所以，本周一澳洲电池板块的暴涨也很好的说明了问题：在其他板块下跌或盘整的时候，市场依然有着足够的机会可以给投资者带来盈利空间。不论是PLS, AKE,还是WHC（当然这个是煤炭）这些我们GO Markets在过去几个月多次提到并推荐的公司，很好的给2023年的加息环境下的客户朋友一个很大的惊喜。

当然了，包括我本人在内我相信，大部分朋友们都不可能最低买入，最高卖出。其实我们做投资，做交易，不用太在意一单的盈亏多少。毕竟，多赚1万也不能改变你的命运。我们不妨把每一次的投资和交易当成是，你在人生中每一次的选择，在每一次的选择中，你为什么会选择向左，而不是向右，为什么是看涨，而不是看跌。而这之后的股价走势，其实不仅仅是在金钱上对你每一个判断的结论。更多的，在我看来，是我们对于事务，对于社会，对于未来风向，和对于自己内心的一个预判。我很享受每一次我做出判断，并且等待验证结果的这个过程。就如同是人生中每一个选择，都会对你的未来产生小小的影响一样。每一次交易，就是在选择。每一次输赢，都是人生的一个过程。今天说的有些玄乎，但是确是我有感而发。也许和实际操作没有太大关系，希望大家海涵。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its Q3 financial results after the closing bell on Wednesday. World’s largest automaker exceeded earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter but fell short on revenue. Revenue reported at $21.454 billion (up by 56% year-over-year) vs. $21.982 billion expected.

EPS at $1.05 per share (up by 69% year-over-year) vs. $1.001 per share estimate. ''The third quarter of 2022 was another strong quarter with record revenue, operating profit and free cash flow. In the last 12 months, our free cash flow exceeded $8.9B. Our operating margin reached 17.2% in Q3.

We achieved an industry-leading operating margin' while encountering material headwinds YoY. Raw material cost inflation impacted our profitability along with ramp inefficiencies from Gigafactory Berlin- Brandenburg, Gigafactory Texas and 4680 cell production. Also, the U.S.

Dollar (USD) continued to strengthen compared to all other major currencies in our markets.'' ''We remain focused on increasing vehicle production as quickly as possible, by increasing our weekly build rate in Fremont and Shanghai and progressing steadily through the production ramps in Berlin and Texas. Logistics volatility and supply chain bottlenecks remain immediate challenges, although improving. We continue to believe that battery supply chain constraints will be the main limiting factor to EV market growth in the medium and long terms.

Despite these challenges, we expect to continue to deliver every vehicle produced while maintaining strong operating margins,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Bank of America raised its price target for Tesla from $315 to $325 on Wednesday. "In light of capital markets volatility, we would note that Tesla’s self-funding status is a notable advantage versus some start-up EV automaker competitors," the bank said in a note to investors. The stock was down by around 3% on Thursday, trading at $214.80 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: -26.10% 3 months: -21.51% Year-to-date: -39.46% 1 year: -28.44% Tesla price targets Bank of America: $325 Deutsche Bank: $355 Wedbush: $300 RBC Capital: $325 Wells Fargo: $230 Morgan Stanley: $350 Mizuho: $370 Goldman Sachs: $333 Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $668.42 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Twitter