市场资讯及洞察
February opens with a policy-heavy tone led by Australia’s RBA decision, while Japan provides the core macro anchors through GDP and inflation updates. In contrast, China’s calendar lightens due to the Spring Festival, shifting attention to liquidity and policy headlines. Across the region, a firmer USD and softer metals continue to frame cross-asset performance, especially for commodity-linked currencies.
Australia: RBA
Australia begins February with a policy-driven focus as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its monetary policy decision, setting the month’s initial tone for rates, currency, and equities. While markets had priced around a 70% chance of a hike as of 30 January, expectations remain highly sensitive to evolving data and RBA commentary.
Key dates
- RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 3 February (AEDT)
- Wage Price Index (WPI): 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
- Labour Force: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Aussie traders will gauge whether the RBA reinforces a data‑dependent stance or shifts more decisively toward tightening.
Wage and labour data will be central in testing inflation persistence, while the next CPI reading anchors positioning heading into March. A balanced or mildly hawkish tone could keep short‑term yields elevated and limit downside in the AUD.
Market sensitivities
AUD and ASX performance will primarily reflect the RBA’s policy tone and broader USD momentum, while resource‑linked sectors should continue to track metals and bulk commodity trends.
The February earnings season, highlighted by CBA and CSL (11 Feb), BHP (17 Feb), and Rio Tinto (19 Feb), is also set to reintroduce stock‑specific drivers once the initial policy focus fades.
Australia: CPI
Australia’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be a key post‑RBA event, offering the clearest read on whether domestic inflation pressures are easing in line with the central bank’s expectations.
The data following the RBA’s February policy decision and could quickly reset rate path probabilities reflected in ASX futures pricing.
Key dates
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will focus on whether trimmed‑mean and services inflation components show further moderation.
Persistent strength in non‑tradables or wage‑related sectors could reinforce expectations for additional tightening later in Q1, while a softer headline would support the view that policy rates have peaked.
Market sensitivities
A stronger‑than‑expected CPI print would likely lift front‑end yields and support the AUD, while a downside surprise could weigh on the currency and flatten the yield curve.
Equity sentiment may diverge and financials could find relief from a pause bias, whereas rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary would benefit most from a cooler inflation read.
Japan: Q4 GDP
Japan’s Q4 GDP release will be a key reference point for how firmly the recovery is progressing after recent quarters of uneven growth momentum. Arriving ahead of the Tokyo CPI print, it helps shape expectations for domestic demand, external trade performance, and how much scope policymakers have to adjust their stance without derailing activity.
Key dates
- Q4 GDP: 11:50 pm, 15 February (GMT)/ 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Investors pay close attention to the balance between consumption, business investment, and net exports to judge whether growth is broad‑based or narrowly supported.
A stronger‑than‑expected print tends to reinforce confidence in Japan’s expansion story, while a weaker outcome can revive concerns about stagnation and delay expectations for any meaningful policy shift.
Japan: Tokyo CPI
Tokyo’s latest inflation reading shows headline CPI easing to 1.5% year‑on‑year in January from 2.0% in December 2025, dipping further below the recent peaks seen during the post‑pandemic upswing.
The CPI release offers one of the timeliest reads on Japan’s inflation pulse and is closely watched as a lead indicator for nationwide price trends.
Coming late in the month, it serves as a check on whether the recent inflation upswing is sustaining at levels consistent with policymakers’ many objectives.
- Tokyo CPI: 11:30 pm, 26 February (GMT)/ 10:30 am, 27 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Attention centres on core measures that strip out volatile components, alongside services prices, to see whether underlying inflation is holding near target or drifting lower.
A firmer profile strengthens the case that Japan is exiting its low‑inflation regime, while softer readings suggest that price pressures remain fragile and dependent on external factors.
Market sensitivities
A hotter‑than‑expected Tokyo CPI print can push Japanese yields higher and lend support to the yen, often translating into pressure on exporter‑heavy equity names.
Conversely, a softer outcome tends to ease yield pressures, weaken the yen, and provide some relief to equity sectors that benefit from a more accommodative policy backdrop.
China
China’s February macro calendar is structurally lighter due to Spring Festival timing.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China notes that some releases are adjusted around Spring Festival timing, with the February PMI scheduled for early March leaving markets without major domestic data anchors for much of the month.
Key dates
- Spring Festival: 17 February to 3 March
What markets look for
Markets turn their focus to policy signals out of Beijing — think targeted stimulus or liquidity injections, as well as shifts in funding conditions and flows responding to global risk sentiment or USD moves.
Trade and tariff rhetoric, or surprise consumption measures like expanded trade-in subsidies and festive spending incentives recently flagged by the Ministry of Commerce, often spark sharper reactions than the usual data releases.
Market sensitivities
CNH and CNY pairs turn more reactive to USD flows and external headlines, often amplifying volatility in regional equities, commodity currencies like AUD, and China-exposed EM assets.
Holiday-thinned liquidity elevates headline risk, particularly in materials (iron ore, copper), tech hardware supply chains, and regional financials, where policy surprises or US tariff updates can trigger 1–2% daily index swings.
Todays RBA policy meeting is expected by most analysts to result in a 50bp hike as the bank tries to play catch up and get on top of elevated inflation figures. The slightly lower Q2 CPI figures released last week has seen futures markets price out what was earlier feared could be a 75bp supersized move, a 50bp hike would see the bank able to respond further in September should the Wage price index data due on 17 August show an alarming increase in wage costs. A 50bp hike today will bring the cash rate up to 1.85% which means we would be looking at least a further 65bp of hikes coming to bring the cash rate to the neutral level of 2.5% indicated by RBA governor Lowe at the last RBA policy meeting.
Currently August rate futures are trading at an implied yield of 1.76%, pricing in a rise of 41bp which indicates traders are giving around an 80% chance of a 50bp hike. Bond traders are rarely wrong when this much is priced in so I expect a 50bp move today with the accompanying statement giving clues to Septembers meeting where it’s looking so far as a toss up between 25 or 50bp. Expected AUD reaction If a 50bp hike is announced, the most likely course in the short term for the AUD will be an initial spike up due to the markets only pricing in 80%, then volatility as the algos read the statement, and more volatility as humans get through it.
Followed by a sustained move in either direction depending on how markets re-price after digesting what the RBA has released. Keep an eye on our Twitter page for instant reaction to the RBA announcement Also please join us on our live webinar of the RBA meeting and market reaction, register at the link below RBA Live Webinar
PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) announced its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The US financial technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion in Q2, topping Wall Street estimate of $6.778 billion. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates for the quarter at $0.93 per share vs. $0.87 per share estimate. ''Our second quarter results were solid with currency neutral revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth exceeding expectations.
We continue to gain share as we execute across our key strategic initiatives, even as we drive operational efficiency across our business.'' Dan Schulman, President and CEO of PayPal said in a press release after the latest results. PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) chart Shares of PayPal were up by 1.20% at the close of trading on Tuesday $89.63. The stock rose by around 11% after better than expected Q2 results.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.47% 3 Month -1.19% Year-to-date -52.47% 1 Year -67.23% PayPal price targets Berenberg $145 Oppenheimer $101 Keybanc $100 Wells Fargo $97 JP Morgan $112 JMP Securities $100 RBC Capital $92 Piper Sandler $93 Truist Securities $80 Credit Suisse $95 Morgan Stanley $129 PayPal is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $103.79 billion. You can trade PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: PayPal Holding Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
热门话题
加息周期中，美股的表现可以分为两种情况：第一，美股面临盈利上行+货币紧缩的组合。此时美股通常会在加息初期出现 一定幅度的调整，持续时长也通常在几个月以内。随后盈利上行仍将支撑美股继续走高。直到盈利增速出现下行，或投资者对盈利的预期转弱，美股才会真正开启大级别的下跌行情，而这通常发生在加息周期结束之后。第二，美股面临盈利下行+货币紧缩的组合。美国经济处于滞胀状态，典型如20 世纪 70 年代。这段时期，美股通常在货币政策收紧之前就出现调整，因为经济下行压力已经开始显现。当估值达到低位，或滞胀结束时美股就走稳见底。
从 1965 年以来，美联储加息一般不会成为美股进入技术性熊市的触发因素。联储加息是为了应对经济增长过热的风险。所以在货币政策刚刚开始收紧时，美股面临着盈利上行和流动性收紧这两股相反的力量，更偏向于震荡。直到投资者对盈利走弱的担忧增强时，美股才会出现调整。典型如2018 年 9 月、2015 年 8 月、2000 年 3 月、1973 年 1 月等均是如此。较为特殊的情况是，美联储加息期间，美股同时面临其他利空，此时美股的表现不佳。如1972 年 4 月-1974 年 7 月，美国经济处于滞胀阶段，美联储加息以应对通胀问题。再如1977 年 4 月-1981 年 7 月，美元危机爆发、美元指数下跌、美国国际收支恶化等迫使美联储加息，但同时经济已处于下行期。整体上看，美股在加息期间大跌的概率不高，基本面下行才是核心利空。
目前的实际情况是，美联储加息进入中期阶段，经济停滞增长和高通胀基本表明美国陷入滞涨，美股也从年初已经经历了大幅度的回撤。目前其实企业的盈利都是偏好的，接下去美股进入反弹行情的概率远远大过继续下跌。
总的来说，每轮加息周期结束后，美国均会出现经济下行，并出现 15%-50%不等的大级别下跌，1970 年以来未有例外。这意味着，最大的风险并不是加息本身，而是加息之后的美国经济下行风险。
免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师
热门话题
近年来，碳中和的呼声越来越高，核发电被重新推上舞台，其原材料铀也是开始回到大众视野。澳大利亚作为资源大国，其铀储存量167.3万吨占世界的31%，但是产量仅仅占全世界的10%不到。在澳大利亚，铀矿的勘探和开采有着严格的法律约束，这样的情况下，澳洲是不太愿意建立新的油田，不仅不放宽开采限制，甚至还越来越严格。在对于资源的重点保护下，澳洲还有很大份额的铀未见天日。在近五年来，铀的价格波动性较大，造成了收入的不稳定性。在2011年福岛核电站核泄漏之后，核能源环境污染和较高危险性成为世界关注的话题，核电站的安全性再次被质疑。后果就是铀作为核动力能源的关键材料，需求骤降，价格出现暴跌，以至于之后五年铀的价格一直都一蹶不振。在近五年，渐渐地有一些好转。首先是俄乌战争的开启，铀的期货价格回到了每磅50美元以上，天然气和石油出现的限制问题可能会导致能源转型，特别对于欧洲国家，目前非常依赖于俄罗斯的能源出口。
在近期，碳中和的愿景成为了全球共识，未来达到这一目标，亚洲的核反应堆开始发展和逐渐重启，特别是在中国和印度，给予了核能发展一个很好的空间，因此也带动了铀行业的发展。而在澳大利亚，并没有核反应堆，所以，所有的铀都选择了出口。中国在2060年承诺的碳中和的目标中，核能源是其中的一个关键点。目前来说，60%的能源来自于燃煤电厂。我们可以算一个数据，为什么核能源是能源转型的关注重点。10辆卡车，大约可以运送25-30吨的铀核燃料，这些燃料足以支撑一座100万千瓦的核电站工作一年。而横向对标相同功率的燃煤发电站，每年的煤炭需求差不多要300万吨，需要1000列火车来进行运送。成本骤减的同时，也对于环境有更大的保护。不过，就安全性问题，一直都是一个问题，毕竟有不少的前车之鉴。根据世界核协会报告，铀需求将从今年的1.62亿磅攀升至2030年的2.06亿磅，到2040年还将进一步上涨至2.92亿磅。据统计，核电的使用在过去50年里避免了约740亿吨的二氧化碳排放，相当于近两年全球能源相关排放的总和。许多投资者认为，随着全球转向碳密集度较低的能源，对铀矿的需求将会持续上升。这就不得不提到一个铀矿公司，帕拉丁能源公司。Paladin Energy Ltd. 从事铀矿的开发和运营。它通过以下部门运营：勘探、纳米比亚、马拉维和澳大利亚。勘探部门专注于开发、勘探和评估项目。纳米比亚和马拉维部门涉及从位于这些地理区域的矿山生产和销售铀。澳大利亚分部包括其销售和营销、资金、公司和行政管理，还包括为完成销售订单而购买的股票收入。它持有Langer Heinrich、Kayelekera、Michelin、Mount Isa 和Manyingee 项目的权益。该公司由John Borshoff 于 1993 年 9 月 24 日创立，总部位于澳大利亚珀斯。其中随着铀的价格开始回暖，帕拉丁准备重启Langer Heinrich 矿，目前其股价0.715澳元，不过目前市场估值在1.07澳元左右，上方仍有不小的空间。表现来看，今年的更是跑赢了大盘，在未来值得关注。
林志颖驾驶特斯拉Model X发生车祸就在7月22日上午，林志颖驾驶的model X在桃园市中正北路撞上电线杆，车辆前盖几乎变形，并燃起了熊熊火焰。事故发生时候，车内当时有林志颖本人还有他的儿子。后来被路人救出，目前伤情已经得到控制。
其中有个问题点就是，特斯拉申明，Model X并没有可燃物质，那么是为什么瞬间会起那么大的火呢？这里就需要提到特斯拉方面回避的一个点，锂电池。特斯拉的Model X搭载的也是锂电池最为动力源，而锂电池如果隔膜破损，和空气接触后将迅速燃烧。理论上而言，只要是搭载目前搭载锂电池的新型能源汽车，都会有碰撞后燃烧的风险。目前来说，技术上无法规避这个问题。
然而在事件发生之后，特斯拉股价看上去并未受到影响，第一就是得益于上周五财报表现很不错，第二就是事件还没调查出结果，不能判断是否是特斯拉自动驾驶导致的事故。但是在未来，特斯拉自动驾驶的安全性，和锂电池新能源汽车的安全性仍然会成为大众关注的焦点。随着目前市面上与之竞争的电动车越来越多，一旦特斯拉出现信任危机，那么，将对其股价造成巨大影响。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported its Q2 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. World’s third largest pharmaceutical company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $27.742 billion in Q2 (up 47% year-over-year) vs. $25.487 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.04 per share (up by 92% year-over-year) vs. $1.72 per share estimate. Dr. Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO commented on the latest results: ''In multiple meaningful ways, we made significant progress this quarter on our strategies to bring value to our patients and shareholders, while also making commitments to prioritize the broader needs of the world, including those of the environment and our most vulnerable populations.
For example, we set an ambitious goal for ourselves to achieve the Net-Zero Standard for greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, ten years ahead of the timeline described in the standard. We also launched an initiative to help bring all of our current and future patented medicines and vaccines to the 1.2 billion people living in 45 lower-income countries around the world at not-for-profit prices, a first in the industry.'' ''Even while launching these initiatives to support a healthier, more equitable world, we remain equally committed to strong financial execution on behalf of our shareholders. In the second quarter, we recorded the largest amount of quarterly sales in our history.
We also presented potentially best-in-class data for etrasimod and announced the proposed strategic acquisition of Biohaven, both of which are closely tied to our purpose: Breakthroughs that change patients’ lives,'' Dr. Bourla concluded. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart Despite beating Wall Street expectations for Q2, shares of Pfizer were down by around 1% at $50.98 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -2.82% 3 Month +0.87% Year-to-date -13.72% 1 Year +19.07% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley $49 Wells Fargo $55 Citigroup $57 B of A Securities $70 Goldman Sachs $51 Pfizer Inc. is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $285.76 billion. You can trade Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Is it time to Capitalise on Short Squeezes ? Short Squeezes are one of the interesting price action patterns that can occur in the market. They can provide It can provide explosive momentum trading opportunities that can go on for days.
They can provide trading opportunities for scalpers, intraday, and swing traders. What actually is a short squeeze and why do they occur? To understand a short squeeze it is important to go back to the basics of trading and understand what an actual short is and why market participants go short on a product.
What is a short? A short is a position that a market participant takes when they expect the price of a market product to go down. This can include but is not excluded too, Securities, Commodities and Forex.
A trader may take a short position because they believe a company is overvalued, a currency will go down in value due to economic factors, to hedge or for a number of other reasons. Short positions can be taken in a range of ways, however, the most common method for shorting a CFD is quite simple. It involves borrowing units to sell with the short holder having to buy-back the units at a lower price and pocketing the difference.
Example A trader believes that company ABC is overvalued at $1.00 and decides to borrow 100 CFD units of ABC to short at $1.00 per CFD with a total value of $100. The price then falls to $0.50. The trader closes their position and buys back the CFDs at $50.
They are then able to pocket the difference of $50.00. The mechanics of a short squeeze. Due to the nature of a short position which requires a buying back of the stock to both close the position and lock in profit a trader will inevitably have to buy-back or close their position at some point.
This subsequently drives up the price. Most of the time in a trending market this process works without any issues. However, if the price stops falling and consolidates or to a stage where the market starts to see value in the price again, large short holders may decide to close out their position.
If big positions or institutions close all at once it can create an avalanche effect. Indicators of a short squeeze A stock, currency, or commodity that is highly shorted or is overextended to the sell side is often ripe for a squeeze. In addition, if the underlying asset is getting closer to an area of support or resistance it may show that the selling has dried up.
Shorters may then need to close their positions soon otherwise they risk holding losing positions If a stock is bottoming or basing it may indicate that buyers are beginning to take control of the price again. This shows that the asset has reached a point where it really can’t fall any further in price because buyers see too much value. A shift in the relative volume can indicate that either a big position is closing or buyers have found an area of value and that the price might be ready to reverse.
The large volume can also indicate that an institution is playing an active role in the price. It is usually good practice to follow where the big money is when trading. Squeezing in the current market A short squeeze can represent a great opportunity to profit for traders.
They can often be explosive moves and last for days. This means that whether you are a swing trader, day trader, or a scalper anyone can capitalise on a squeeze. In addition, with the current state of the market having one of its worst first half of the years in history, with bearish sentiment being very high.
The Nasdaq in particular and growth stocks in particular have seen their value smashed. As big short positions have been taken at some stage they will have to be closed and if the market can rally, then this phenomenon may become more regular. For instance the company ZIP a strong player in the Buy Now Player Sector had seen its share priced reduced to a fraction of its peak prior to just a few weeks ago.
However as seen in the chart below, a shift in volume was the first signal that the stock was about squeeze and shift strongly to the upside. In this instance, ZIP on the weekly chart saw a massive jump in volume, followed by an even larger jump in volume the following week. Importantly ZIP, according to (Shortman.com.au) had a short % of 7.34 on July 1 2022, prior to the breakout.
Looking at the daily chart underneath, the sheer volume of buying continued to get larger and larger which is indictive of a short squeeze as large positions began to close. The subsequent price action provided great consistent buying opportunities for traders.