市场资讯及洞察
February opens with a policy-heavy tone led by Australia’s RBA decision, while Japan provides the core macro anchors through GDP and inflation updates. In contrast, China’s calendar lightens due to the Spring Festival, shifting attention to liquidity and policy headlines. Across the region, a firmer USD and softer metals continue to frame cross-asset performance, especially for commodity-linked currencies.
Australia: RBA
Australia begins February with a policy-driven focus as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its monetary policy decision, setting the month’s initial tone for rates, currency, and equities. While markets had priced around a 70% chance of a hike as of 30 January, expectations remain highly sensitive to evolving data and RBA commentary.
Key dates
- RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 3 February (AEDT)
- Wage Price Index (WPI): 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
- Labour Force: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Aussie traders will gauge whether the RBA reinforces a data‑dependent stance or shifts more decisively toward tightening.
Wage and labour data will be central in testing inflation persistence, while the next CPI reading anchors positioning heading into March. A balanced or mildly hawkish tone could keep short‑term yields elevated and limit downside in the AUD.
Market sensitivities
AUD and ASX performance will primarily reflect the RBA’s policy tone and broader USD momentum, while resource‑linked sectors should continue to track metals and bulk commodity trends.
The February earnings season, highlighted by CBA and CSL (11 Feb), BHP (17 Feb), and Rio Tinto (19 Feb), is also set to reintroduce stock‑specific drivers once the initial policy focus fades.
Australia: CPI
Australia’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be a key post‑RBA event, offering the clearest read on whether domestic inflation pressures are easing in line with the central bank’s expectations.
The data following the RBA’s February policy decision and could quickly reset rate path probabilities reflected in ASX futures pricing.
Key dates
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will focus on whether trimmed‑mean and services inflation components show further moderation.
Persistent strength in non‑tradables or wage‑related sectors could reinforce expectations for additional tightening later in Q1, while a softer headline would support the view that policy rates have peaked.
Market sensitivities
A stronger‑than‑expected CPI print would likely lift front‑end yields and support the AUD, while a downside surprise could weigh on the currency and flatten the yield curve.
Equity sentiment may diverge and financials could find relief from a pause bias, whereas rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary would benefit most from a cooler inflation read.
Japan: Q4 GDP
Japan’s Q4 GDP release will be a key reference point for how firmly the recovery is progressing after recent quarters of uneven growth momentum. Arriving ahead of the Tokyo CPI print, it helps shape expectations for domestic demand, external trade performance, and how much scope policymakers have to adjust their stance without derailing activity.
Key dates
- Q4 GDP: 11:50 pm, 15 February (GMT)/ 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Investors pay close attention to the balance between consumption, business investment, and net exports to judge whether growth is broad‑based or narrowly supported.
A stronger‑than‑expected print tends to reinforce confidence in Japan’s expansion story, while a weaker outcome can revive concerns about stagnation and delay expectations for any meaningful policy shift.
Japan: Tokyo CPI
Tokyo’s latest inflation reading shows headline CPI easing to 1.5% year‑on‑year in January from 2.0% in December 2025, dipping further below the recent peaks seen during the post‑pandemic upswing.
The CPI release offers one of the timeliest reads on Japan’s inflation pulse and is closely watched as a lead indicator for nationwide price trends.
Coming late in the month, it serves as a check on whether the recent inflation upswing is sustaining at levels consistent with policymakers’ many objectives.
- Tokyo CPI: 11:30 pm, 26 February (GMT)/ 10:30 am, 27 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Attention centres on core measures that strip out volatile components, alongside services prices, to see whether underlying inflation is holding near target or drifting lower.
A firmer profile strengthens the case that Japan is exiting its low‑inflation regime, while softer readings suggest that price pressures remain fragile and dependent on external factors.
Market sensitivities
A hotter‑than‑expected Tokyo CPI print can push Japanese yields higher and lend support to the yen, often translating into pressure on exporter‑heavy equity names.
Conversely, a softer outcome tends to ease yield pressures, weaken the yen, and provide some relief to equity sectors that benefit from a more accommodative policy backdrop.
China
China’s February macro calendar is structurally lighter due to Spring Festival timing.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China notes that some releases are adjusted around Spring Festival timing, with the February PMI scheduled for early March leaving markets without major domestic data anchors for much of the month.
Key dates
- Spring Festival: 17 February to 3 March
What markets look for
Markets turn their focus to policy signals out of Beijing — think targeted stimulus or liquidity injections, as well as shifts in funding conditions and flows responding to global risk sentiment or USD moves.
Trade and tariff rhetoric, or surprise consumption measures like expanded trade-in subsidies and festive spending incentives recently flagged by the Ministry of Commerce, often spark sharper reactions than the usual data releases.
Market sensitivities
CNH and CNY pairs turn more reactive to USD flows and external headlines, often amplifying volatility in regional equities, commodity currencies like AUD, and China-exposed EM assets.
Holiday-thinned liquidity elevates headline risk, particularly in materials (iron ore, copper), tech hardware supply chains, and regional financials, where policy surprises or US tariff updates can trigger 1–2% daily index swings.
热门话题
昨天美国公布了最新的5月世界各主体持有美债情况。其中我们和日本，都继续连续减持美债。我们在5月是继续减持226亿美元的美债，连续6个月下降，这使得我们持有美债的规模，时隔12年首度跌破万亿美元大关。
美国之前公布的4月美债持有情况，出现前十大海外持有主体集体减持美债的罕见一幕。而这次公布的5月美债持有情况，就出现一些分化。日本作为美债海外第一大持有主体，5月继续减持57亿美元，仍持有1.21万亿美元的美债。
美元兑日元之前经历了一场逼空行情，最高来到139，收到美元加息预期的影响，目前仍在高位震荡，距离140只有一步之遥。
在这次日元大幅贬值之前，日元作为避险货币，依托于日本央行极度宽松的货币政策以及一些避险资金的青睐，想以此来支撑日债价格。而且这些大资金可以通过日本低利率环境，低息融资日元，然后兑换美元，去购买美债，这样就可以吃到日元和美元的利差，进行套利。这样的日美利差套利模式，要成立是建立在几个前提：1、日元汇率要保持稳定，不能大幅贬值。2、日本央行必须维持极度宽松的货币政策。但今年因为美联储为了降低国内的通胀，释放了激烈的加息预期，机构普遍认为美联储基准利率今年会达到3.5%以上。这使得导致以上两个前提都不复存在。这里出现一个恶性循环。只要抛售日债的资金越多，日本央行就要印更多的钱去给日债接盘，这会导致日元贬值压力越大，进而导致抛售日债资金越多。
以上的一个套利空间或者获利模式，在美元加息周期走完之前，很难被打破。这也是最近讨论热烈的安倍经济学包装的MMT货币理论被检讨的原因，因为即使安倍任内股市涨幅良好但是也带来了债务货币化的强烈副作用。
请看以下2图，2022年3月日元进入加速贬值，这个时间点刚好与日本大幅抛售美债的时间相近，相信并不是一个巧合，而是资产之间套利机会的驱使。
如果以上的逻辑成立，那么循此模式可以在日元和美债之间寻找机会，比较推荐的是CHDJPY，USDJPY和10年美国国债相关衍生品的组合。短线也注意欧元区的货币政策和经济情势带来的美元指数走势的不确定。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jason Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师
The S&P 500 has been battered and bruised in one of the worst first half of the years in history. However, there are some signs that it may be turning. A short term long buying opportunity on the SPY looks to be apparent.
With the recent bullish sentiment due to the market believing that much of the forecast slowing growth and interest rate hikes have been prices into the market already. The trading opportunity is a technical breakout of a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Firstly it is important to recognise that the S&P500 is still in a longer term down trend.
This can be seen on the chart below. Since December 2021 the SPX has been in a downward channel making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore it is important to understand that this opportunity will be against the longer general trend of the market.
The Chart On the chart the wedge at the bottom of the channel has broken to the upside. Without this break it could’ve been possible that this would've formed into a bear flag. However on the contrary, it looks to have developed into a reversal pattern, as the price has coiled.
Furthermore, and importantly, the price has broken above the 50 day average. This is also supported by the MACD. The MACD is not just showing a crossover.
To add support to the reversal, the MACD is showing a double bottom pattern of exhaustion as it looks to break over the zero line for the first time since April. A conservative target would be the convergence of the next level of resistance and also the top line of the channel. This is a 4100 target.
If the index can break through 4100 level and continue to rise to 4230. As stated previously the second move up will likely face a large amount of resistance as it is fighting the general trend and against a fairly strong resistance point.
The Australian dollar has begun the week relatively strongly after gaining some momentum from RBA's most recent meeting. The board pushed across quite a hawkish sentiment sparking the rise in the AUD. They found that the current slowing growth across the market and global sphere created that was “becoming skewed to the downside.” The board expressed their concern about the economic activity in China, particularly with the threat of Covid 19.
With lockdowns and a strict covid policy, the threat remains a key factor in the speed of growth on the mainland. Whilst overall business activity improved through May and likely June as well, recent lockdowns have the potential to pull back these gains. The low unemployment signalled Australia’s robustness and strength with record high participation rates in the economy.
Violent weather events like the floods in NSW and the Russian and Ukraine crisis also further added strain on the supply driving up prices and increasing the price of goods. Non-labour inputs also rose in price contributing further to inflation. The members did note the prices for base metals had begun to ease as recession fears had grown.
In addition, declining house prices and clearance rates as a sign that the speed of inflation is potentially slowing, however, they still expect inflation to continue rising for the remainder of 2022. Ultimately the members of the board agreed to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points instead of the alternative of 25 points. With particular emphasis on the strong labour market, the need to bring inflation under control trumped the need for stronger growth.
In response to the release of the minutes, the AUDUSD saw a little rise higher. After sitting near its 52-week lows at $0.6681 in recent weeks, the minutes provided a much-needed push. The price of the AUDUSD currently sits at $0.6845 which is its prior support level and has now become a level of resistance.
If the AUDUSD can push through this level the next resistance point is at $0.6967. As the market is still dealing with unprecedented global inflationary figures, it remains risky to go against the USD, however with effective risk management this risk can be mitigated.
Recent History The USD has been on a tear in recent months as volatile market conditions have sent the currency rocketing. Inflationary pressures and recession fears have seen investors turn to the USD whilst at the same time taking off risk from the AUD. The AUD's drop has also been further is largely due to a decrease in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Brent Crude, Wheat, and other key resources that rive much of the Australian economy.
In addition, the AUD is seen as a risk currency. This means that the currency performs well when the economy is growing and the market is bullish and conversely suffers during times of volatility and slowed growth. There has been some positive price action to indicate that a reversal in the AUDUSD may be imminent.
Technical Analysis From a long-term perspective, the weekly chart shows that going back since 2015 the AUDUSD has been trading in a relatively stable range between approximately $0.6680 and $0.8126. The one exception to this was the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic which acted as a ‘Black Swan’ type of event towards the pair and the wider market, (A). This caused a mass panic and a subsequent sell off the AUDUSD.
Once the initial panic began to subside the pair recovered and was able to recover back into the range. It is interesting to note that over the last few years the pair has reverted to its 50-week moving average, after aggressive moves in either direction. In recent weeks, a reversal does appear to be emerging.
The candlesticks also support this by showing a red hammer candle followed by a relatively strong green candle indicating potential exhaustion, (B). Looking closely at the daily chart can provide a few more targets in terms of potential price targets. The next most reasonable price target could be the 50-day moving average which is also doubles as the next level of resistance at $0.6970.
If the price is able to break through this point, then it may go further target the 200 Day average of $0.7190. However, it will likely have to soak up a fair amount of selling pressure. Ultimately the strength of this pair will largely depend on how accurately the market is pricing in inflation and a recession.
If the selloff in equities has maxed out, then it may positively effect the direction of the AUDUSD. However, if there is more pain to come then the pair may sell further down.
热门话题
就在昨天，欧洲公布了最新的6月CPI数据，与预测值和前值一样，8.6%。6月份核心CPI为4.6%，比美国的数据稍微好看一点。
在数据公布之前的两个小时，欧元兑美元涨幅超100点，在数据公布后，出现一点回落后再次维持在高位，目前EURUSD在1.0240附近震荡，等待欧元区利率决议。EURUSD在上一周跌破1：1，触及了20年来的低点，大家都见证了历史，不知道当时有读我们公众号的朋友有没有参与历史，”抄底“ EURUSD，目前距离近期低位EURUSD已涨超250个点，1手的利润大概在2500美元左右。目前欧洲的基本面不被大家看好，当下俄乌冲突所带来的各种地缘政治问题，北溪1号线路进入每年的例行休整期，市场担心俄方借题发挥，延长线路的休整时间，延缓天然气的供应，打断欧洲各国的储气计划；美国说好的天然气供应计划也是意外重重，地主家也没有余粮；乌克兰的难民涌入欧洲等等一系列的问题，都让市场对欧元的未来担忧。
但是从刚刚公布的CPI数据来看，似乎欧元区的通胀有所减缓。大家都知道，目前通胀上行的主要原因就是因为俄能源价格的上涨，欧洲的原油天然气来源又十分受限，能源价格更是高的离谱，全球天然气的定价是双轨制的，我们平时交易的天然气价格是美国交易所里天然气的价格，而欧洲的天然气价格更加昂贵，让6月的通胀没有再继续增加绝非易事。没有对比就没有伤害，美国是上帝的应允之地，有一望无际的平原，无论是产量还是运输都十分方便；有墨西哥湾和阿拉斯加富饶的油田成就了美国原油产量全球产量前三的地位等等等等，就这，通胀还是刹不住车的上涨。
回到交易，对于如何制定自己的交易计划，就不在这里赘述了，短期来看，比较合适的机会就是与欧元相关的货币对了，例如EURJPY，如果日本央行继续维持不加息的决定，那么日元还是相对疲软，做多即将加息的货币的思路仍旧可以继续。不要忘记数据公布后的市场情绪变化，再次提醒一下三分钟法则（在市场公布数据后的1-3分钟，短线的单子可以考虑择机离场），把握市场情绪才能不被市场左右。在经历了最近两三个月的各国的轮流加息之后，相信大家的实战水平也有所提高，也尝到了做多加息货币的甜，为了帮助大家更好的把握加息的节奏，我为GO Markets的客户准备了一份加息日历，有需要的朋友可以跟您的客户经理要一份日历，跟着日历提前布局，把握市场节奏。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Rick Shao | GO Markets 专业分析师
热门话题
我们知道澳洲虽然土地面积很大，但是因为人口很少，一直以来这个市场都在国际大型企业看来是一个不上不下的市场：说小吧，由于澳洲客户平均资产远高于欧美，因此总量还是很大的。但是说大呢，又因为这个人口的上限就摆在那里，而大部分的生意都聚集在悉尼墨尔本这两大城市中，因此导致了任何的产品，不论是金融还是实体，在悉尼和墨尔本为主的澳洲市场都会遭遇异常惨烈的竞争。汽车行业就是一个很好的案例，澳洲虽然人口不多，但是由于土地大，因此人均汽车拥有量超过日本和欧洲，但是又因为只有2400万人，因此每年的汽车销量也就是100万辆上下，和中国美国比起来连1/10都不到。但是依然吸引全世界超过50个汽车品牌进驻，可谓是竞争异常残酷。
而其他产业也好不到哪里去。就算是金融行业的全球老大美国，在澳洲的银行业里也几乎放弃了零售市场，花旗银行在今年正式将其澳洲的零售业务卖给了澳洲当地的国民银行。而目前我们看得到的国际银行，似乎也就剩下了汇丰和一些中资银行。就连日本三菱和美国银行这样的巨头也只能缩到写字楼里去做高端私人和对公业务。为啥呢？就是因为在澳洲开实体店，尤其是分行太贵了，而零售业务如果没有强大的基层网络几乎就是不赚钱的。因此世界巨头最终要不就是直接退出零售业务，要不就是干脆不做商业银行业务，只做投行业务，例如瑞银和摩根等等。说了这么多，就是为了给大家解释澳洲商业模式：澳洲的银行业看似开放，但是其实垄断的非常厉害。基本上所有的商业银行业务都被澳洲当地的巨头垄断，外来的要抢生意非常难。而在澳洲本地的4个巨头里，澳新银行的资产和规模都是最小的。虽然名字横跨了澳洲和新西兰两个国家，但是依然是4家里最小的一个。而从上一任CEO Mike Smith卸任之后，澳新银行就开始转变发展策略，全面从亚洲收缩，关闭了多个国家的分行，还卖掉了理财业务，准备专心做澳洲和新西兰当地市场。在这样的基础下，澳新如果想在短期内有质的发展，自然最快的办法就是收购澳洲其他已经有门店的小银行。因此在昆士兰规模排名第一的Suncorp就入了澳新的法眼了。
在一众地区性银行中，Suncorp和昆士兰银行主要做昆州业务，阿德雷德和Bendigo银行主要做南澳和维州乡下地区业务，西澳银行则主要做西澳业务。但是在这众多地区性银行中，绝大部分都已经被其他巨头收入囊中，阿德和Bendigo已经被西太收购，西澳银行被联邦银行收购，因此目前澳洲地区性银行只剩下了昆士兰银行和Suncorp.而在这两家中，毫无疑问不论是分行数量，还是资产规模，都是后者更多。因此澳新银行自然就看上了Suncorp这快速让其财务报表“致富”的好办法。总结来说，澳洲的金融市场总体金额巨大，但是人口上限低，零售市场运行成本极高，垄断严重，国外企业基本无力和本地巨头竞争普通商业银行业务。而四家澳洲本地银行相互内卷，大鱼吃小鱼，最终有可能变成澳洲的零售商业银行只剩下4家大银行和他们的附属小弟的局面。说完银行业，我们再来看看最近美国头痛的话题：通胀。大家都知道，物价上涨因素中一个很重要的环节就是运输和物流成本。而决定这个因素的关键就是油价。因此尽可能的压低油价，就成为了拜登这届美国政府目前要做的首要工作。为此他不仅仅连续释放了美国的战略石油库存，并且和美国国内的大石油公司开会要求增加产量，同时也飞去了中东，亲自会见了沙特的老大要求对方也配合增加产量。
但是非常打脸的是，在上周末的记者招待会上，当着拜登的面，沙特说他们已经全部使用完了产生能力，没有空余可以增加的产能。因此无能为力。我们知道美国一直以来都是沙特的铁杆盟友，就连几年前沙特王子陷入在土耳其谋杀记者的风波时，时任美国总统特朗普也是一直咬牙挺沙特。但是在最近几年，尤其是美国的页岩油产量越来越高之后，沙特为了维持其欧佩克组织对石油的定价权，已经不止一次和美国在石油问题上公开唱反调了。这次也丝毫不给美国面子。连傻子都知道，美国总统在出发去沙特之前肯定了解过对方的实际能力。要是真的已经很努力，没办法增加了，那就根本不用飞过去和沙特商量。就是因为美国知道沙特如果愿意，可以增加，才会老大远飞过去谈。当然了，沙特自己是产油国，你美国要压低油价就是让我少赚钱，那这种亏本买卖要是没有其他好处谁都不会干。因此势必美国必须在其他地方给与沙特承诺或者好处，来换得沙特的增产。但是在记者招待会上公开打脸来看，似乎沙特对于美国给出的好处并不满意。
当然了，之前土耳其也是公开反对瑞典和芬兰加入北约，后来条件给到位了，也就松口了。因此沙特这个事，其实也是一回事：美国别想打发叫花子，如果拿出诚意来，增加砝码，让沙特满意了，自然对方就会找个理由开始增产。但是油价的走势除了沙特增产以外，还有一个更重要的因素就是中国下半年的经济。毕竟我们知道目前作为全世界最大的石油进口国，中国一旦再次大规模疫情控制，就意味着对于汽油的需求将会大幅减少，而如果因为经常清零所导致下半年经济增长放缓，那就意味着对于石油的需求将会长期同步下降。这才是大事。比俄罗斯乌克兰战争对于油价的影响更大。所以下半年最大的不确定因素不是俄罗斯乌克兰战争，也不是美国通胀，而是未来六个月中国经济的走势。
免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监