市场资讯及洞察

随着伊朗冲突的重塑 能源市场,中央银行转为鹰派,尽管混乱不堪,黄金仍处于自由落体状态,2026年的避险手册比以往任何时候都更加复杂。
事实速览
- 尽管中东战争活跃,但黄金已从历史最高水平下跌了20%以上
- 新加坡元兑美元汇率接近自2014年10月以来的最高水平
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 由于伊朗推动的油价推动澳大利亚通货膨胀率上升,2026年3月将利率上调至4.10%
1。黄金(XAU/USD)
黄金仍然是全球交易最广泛的避风港。它受益于地缘政治压力、美元疲软和负实际利率环境。但是,它在2026年的短期行为需要解释。
尽管中东战争活跃,但黄金仍大幅抛售。可能的原因是美联储下调了2026年的降息预期,理由是生产者通货膨胀率高于预期, 霍尔木兹海峡-油价推动了通货膨胀的持续性。
归根结底,黄金的牛市取决于实际收益率下降和美元疲软,而目前这两个条件都不具备。交易者应意识到,在像伊朗冲突造成的通货膨胀供应冲击中,黄金的表现并不总是如预期。
但是,如果你缩小视野,长期前景将巩固黄金的避险地位,到2025年成为有记录以来最强劲的年份之一。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储指引、实际收益率和美元方向。
2。日元 (JPY)
由于日本是世界上最大的净债权国,日元长期以来一直是避险货币。在压力时期,日本投资者倾向于汇回资本,推动日元走高。
但是,到目前为止,这种动态似乎在2026年发生了变化。日元同比下跌6.63%,接近2024年7月以来的最低水平,石油进口成本的飙升正在打压该货币。
但是,日元的避险作用并未消失。在股票大幅抛售和流动性事件中,它往往会重新站稳脚跟。但是在石油驱动的通胀冲击中,它面临着结构性阻力。
值得关注的关键变量:日本央行的利率决定、美日收益率差异以及日本当局发出的任何干预信号。
3.瑞士法郎 (CHF)
瑞士的政治中立性、账户盈余和强大的机构框架使法郎成为反身避险货币。与日元不同,瑞士法郎在当前环境中保持不变,2026年法郎兑美元汇率上涨,欧元/瑞郎保持稳定。
对于欧洲和中东的交易者来说,瑞士法郎通常是压力事件中的第一停靠港。
值得关注的关键变量:瑞士国家银行的干预语言、欧洲的地缘政治发展和全球风险指数。
4。美国国债 (US10Y)
在正常情况下,美国政府债券是世界上最大、流动性最高的避险工具。但是 2026 年不是正常情况...
收益率一直在上升,而不是下降,这意味着对于任何寻求安全的人来说,债券价格都朝着错误的方向发展。
当避险事件期间收益率上升时,这表明市场将债券视为通货膨胀风险而不是安全资产。
但是,像票据和2年期国债这样的短期国债则是另一回事。与长期债券相比,它们可能提供更高的收入和更低的期限风险,这就是为什么一些投资者在动荡时期更能防御性地使用它们的原因。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储通讯、消费者价格指数和个人消费支出数据,以及10年期国债收益率是否突破4.50%或回落至4.00%以下。
5。澳元兑美元(澳元/美元):反向竞争
澳元被广泛认为是一种风险货币,与全球大宗商品需求和中国的增长密切相关。
在避险环境中,澳元/美元通常会下跌。澳元/美元下跌可以作为更广泛全球压力的主要指标,这对于具有区域风险敞口的交易者来说可能是一个有用的背景。
澳洲联储的加息周期(自2026年初以来两次加息)为澳元提供了一些下限,但在持续的全球避险走势中,这种支撑是有限的。
值得关注的关键变量:澳大利亚央行前瞻性指导、中国采购经理人指数数据、铁矿石价格以及石油对澳大利亚通胀预期的影响。
6。美元指数(DXY)
在急性压力期间,美元充当世界储备货币和反身避风港。当流动性枯竭时,无论潜在趋势如何,全球对美元的需求往往会激增。
在过去的12个月中,由于全球对美国财政轨迹的信心动摇,美元已经下跌。但在过去的一个月中,在鹰派美联储和地缘政治风险上升的支持下,它已经走强。
在避险环境中,美元继续吸引避险资金流动。但是,油价上涨会增加通货膨胀风险,使美联储的政策预期复杂化。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储利率路径、美国通胀数据和全球流动性状况。
7。新加坡元 (SGD)
新加坡元是当前环境中最具弹性的货币之一,在全球范围内鲜为人知,但在整个东南亚都具有很高的相关性。
在避险资金流和投资者被新加坡AAA评级债券、股息密集的股票市场和可预测的政府政策所吸引的支持下,新加坡元已升至接近2014年10月以来的最高水平。
新加坡金融管理局通过名义有效汇率区间而不是利率来管理新加坡元,使其具有与其他避险货币不同的性质。
对于有印尼、马来西亚、泰国、越南和更广泛的东盟地区敞口的交易者来说,美元/新加坡元可以作为区域风险偏好的实用基准。
值得关注的关键变量:新加坡金融管理局的政策区间调整、区域贸易流动以及更广泛的美元/亚洲动态。
8。现金和短期固定收益
有时,最有效的避风港可以简单地减少暴露。由于主要经济体的中央银行利率仍处于较高水平,现金和短期政府债券可以在不受市场风险影响的同时提供可观的收益率。
澳洲联储在3月份的会议上将现金利率提高至4.10%。英格兰银行维持在3.75%,而欧洲央行将其存款便利利率维持在2.00%,主要再融资利率维持在2.15%。 在所有主要经济体中,短期政府票据多年来首次提供了实际回报。
在动荡的环境中,资本保值有时比回报最大化更重要。
值得关注的关键变量:所有主要经济体的中央银行会议日历,以及利率路径前瞻性指导的任何变化。
接下来要看什么
美联储通胀数据。 核心个人消费支出是目前黄金、债券和美元最重要的单一数据点。任何一个方向上的任何惊喜都可能同时移动所有这三个方向。
日元干预风险。 日元接近此前引发日本当局行动的水平。具有亚太地区风险敞口的交易者应密切关注。
澳洲联储的下一步行动。 澳大利亚目前为4.10%,通货膨胀率仍高于目标,问题在于徒步周期是否还有更长的路要走。下一次澳洲联储会议将于5月5日举行。
地缘政治轨迹。 任何缓和中东局势的举措都将迅速减少避险需求,并将资本转回风险资产。反之亦然。
中国的增长信号。 中国复苏强于预期,可能会提振大宗商品货币,降低整个亚太地区的防御地位。
长期镜头
2026年的环境表明,避险资产的有效性取决于 类型 令人震惊,而不仅仅是其严重性。
伊朗冲突造成的通货膨胀供应冲击是传统避风港最困难的环境之一。
随着实际收益率的上升,黄金下跌。随着通货膨胀预期的攀升,债券抛售。随着日本进口成本的飙升,即使是日元也可能贬值。
无论宏观条件如何,都保持着机构信誉、管理框架和充足流动性的资产。瑞士法郎、新加坡元和短期现金工具比目前的黄金或多头债券更符合这种描述。
在2026年,交易者面临的问题不是 “哪个避风港?”它是 “避风港,避开什么?”


Facebook has had a fair share of negative news headlines in recent times with lawsuits filed against the company and calls to improve the monitoring of information that is posted on the social media platform. Despite that, the share price of Facebook hit an all-time high this week after trading at above $314 per share for the first time during the trading day on Thursday. With the negative headlines, there is also a level of optimism about the future of the company with revenue numbers expected to increase in 2021.
Q4 2020– revenue growth Last year, the company saw a substantial slowdown in revenue growth in Q2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic when it saw a significant reduction in its advertising side of the business. However, Q4 revenue rose by 33% year-over-year, a significant increase from 22% growth in Q3 and 11% in Q2. ''This was a strong quarter for our business, as the acceleration of online commerce we’ve seen during the pandemic continued into the holiday season. Our total revenue for Q4 was $28.1 billion, which is a 33% year-over-year increase.
Our fastest growth rate in over two years. After a really difficult year for so many businesses, this holiday period was important. And while many businesses are still struggling, the good news is that Q4 was stronger than expected for retail'', Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s COO explained Q4 performance during its earning call back in January.
The share price is up by around 14% since the beginning of the year. Facebook – YTD Source: TradingView Price target increase Deutsche Bank recently increased their price target for Facebook from $355 to $385 and maintained a ''buy'' rating for the social media giant following positive feedback from advertisers and Mark Zuckerberg’s positive comments about more e-commerce moving onto the platform. Deutsche Bank data checks show that advertisers have continued to spend on the platform in Q1 of 2021.
Facebook report Q1 2021 earnings on 28 th April. You can trade Facebook (FB) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

2020 was a good year for electric car space. We have seen shares of most electric car makers surge considerably and take steps to take the industry to the next level, most notably Tesla and NIO. Top 5 automakers by market cap* Tesla at $790.53 billion Toyota at $209.83 billion NIO at $97.21 billion BYD at $94.21 billion Volkswagen at $92.80 billion *As of 13/1/21 Source: Companies Market Cap Tesla The share price of the World's largest electric car maker (by market cap) Tesla rose above $700 at the end of last year, and it has continued to climb up to above $800 per share.
The recent price surge made Elon Musk the richest person in the World at $202 billion, passing Amazon owner Jeff Bezos. Goldman Sachs recently raised their price target for the stock from $455 to $780, keeping its rating at ''neutral'' despite the price target upgrade. ''We believe that the shift toward battery electric vehicle adoption is accelerating and will occur faster than our prior view'' they added. On the other hand, JPMorgan sees the share price plummeting by 87% to 90% a share in 2021.
Tesla stock is "in our view and by virtually every conventional metric not only overvalued but dramatically so," a team of JPMorgan analysts led by Ryan Brinkman said last month. The share price is currently trading at around the $854 level, up by 16% since the beginning of the year. Tesla are set to report earnings on 2/2/21.
NIO Tesla was not the only electric car maker making headlines in 2020. NIO, the Chinese electric car manufacturer also made moves in the electric vehicle (EV) space. The share price of the ''Chinese Tesla'' rose by around 1,110% last year, making it one of the best performing large-cap stocks of the year.
There are a few reasons why the stock has risen recently. The company recently announced its first luxury sedan - ET7. The new model will start at $69,000 and have will an estimated driving range of 620 miles on a full charge, according to the company.
NIO also announced that it is teaming up with Nvidia and Qualcomm. Following the latest news, JPMorgan announced that they have increased their price target for the ''Chinese Tesla'' from $40 to $75 per share. The share price is currently trading at around the $62 level, up by 16% since the beginning of the year.
Tesla are set to report earnings on 9/3/21. The electric vehicle industry is expected to grow in the coming years with many countries around the World announcing bans on selling new petrol and diesel cars in the next decade. You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Capital at risk.

The US Dollar is the most traded currency in the world and paired with all other major currencies. It acts as the intermediary in triangular currency transactions, held by almost every central bank around the world. Unofficially, US Dollar utilization occurs in over 30 countries worldwide and officially; it gets used as a legitimate currency in eight other places around the world.
Let’s find out who those countries are. East Timor East Timor is a sovereign state in Maritime Southeast Asia, north of Australia. It became a sovereign state on 20th May 2002.
Capital: Dili Population: 1,242,000 (2017) Official language(s): Tetum, Portuguese Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $2.9 billion (2017) Ecuador Another country that uses the US Dollar as an official currency is Ecuador. The South American nation adopted the US Dollar as the official currency in January 2001. It is the seventh largest economy in South America, and it is also a member of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Capital: Quito Population: 16,390,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $103 billion (2017) El Salvador El Salvador, the smallest and the most densely populated country in Central America is another country that is using US Dollar as an official currency. It has the largest economy in Central America and the only Central American nation without a Caribbean coastline. Capital: San Salvador Population: 6,345,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $24 billion (2017) Palau Historically knows as Belau, Palaos and Pelew the country is made up from around 340 islands and is located in the western Pacific Ocean.
It is the 180th largest country in the world at 465 square kilometres, and it has one of smallest economies in the world. Capital: Ngerulmud Population: 21,503 (2016) Official language(s): English, Palauan Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $291 million (2017) Marshall Islands The Republic of the Marshall Islands is an island country near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. It is worlds 189th largest country regarding land area with 181 square kilometers.
The islands have a few natural resources, and their imports far exceed their exports. Capital: Majuro Population: 53,066 (2016) Official language(s): English, Marshallese Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $199 million (2017) Micronesia The Federated States of Micronesia is an independent sovereign nation and the United States associated state, so it is no surprise they use the Dollar as an official currency. The area is made up from around 600 islands, and it does not share any land borders.
Capital: Palikir Population: 104,937 (2016) Official language: English Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $336 million (2017) Panama Officially known as the Republic of Panama is a country in Central America bordering Columbia and Costa Rica. Panama has two official currencies – Panamanian Balboa (PAB) and the US Dollar. Since 1904, the Dollar has circulated in the Central American nation.
Capital: Panama City Population: 4,043,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $61 billion (2017) Zimbabwe Zimbabwe is a landlocked country in the south of Africa, bordering Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana, and South Africa. The African nation experienced significant economic downfall under their previous president Robert Mugabe, and their currency was virtually worthless. In 2008, in the midst of a financial crisis, Zimbabwe got rid of their money and adopted the American Dollar.
Capital: Harare Population: 16,150,000 (2016) Official language(s): 16 languages including English, Chewa, and Shona Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $17 billion (2017) By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Canada News Flying Under The Radar Canada has been a predominant feature in financial news in the recent few months, with many discussions centered around the NAFTA and ‘new NAFTA’ agreement, the USMCA trade deal. But despite being such a significant story, it has arguably been overshadowed by the big moves in equity markets, Brexit negotiation drama and the trouble in emerging markets, i.e., Turkey, Brazil, and even Italy’s budget woes. So with the Canadian central bank, BoC, expectedly hiking rates a by 25 basis points on Wednesday 24th October, we decided to give Canada its time in the limelight it deserves and take a look at the Canadian economy.
For more information on the BoC rate decision, take a look at our Analyst Klavs’ article right here - > The Bank of Canada Rate Decision. USDCAD Chart - BoC Tax Hike causes 100pip drop before trend continues Canadian Currency Moves And Economic Stance Perhaps the best place to start would be to address the most recent price swings in the Canadian Dollar and some of the driving forces behind it. In the chart above, we saw a 100pip push lower in the USDCAD (USD weakening, CAD strengthening) on the back of the BoC’s decision to hike rates by a further 25 basis points to 1.75%.
Now despite the highly anticipated nature of this announcement, it’s the overtly hawkish comments from the executive committee members that perpetuated the move lower in the pair. So what was said and what does it mean for Canada going forward? Let’s begin with rates as that was the initial stimulus in the move.
BoC’s Wilkins, the Senior Deputy Governor, stated that “Policy Rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve inflation target” that the BoC “Don’t have a preordained rate path” and that the “pace of rate hikes is dependent on the inflation outlook.” In short, this translates to the stance that most Central banks seem to be adopting and that is an accommodative and data dependent bias. Meaning that while their long-term goal remains the same, i.e., raising the rate to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low, stable and predictable, the timing with which they are willing to make changes is flexible and the comments from both Wilkins as Governor Poloz support this. Poloz went on to state that the removal of the word ‘Gradual’ from monetary policy forward guidance “Permits us to raise rates at a faster or slower pace depending on developments.” This statement helped to perpetuate the move higher in the Canadian Dollar because it demonstrated that Canada’s government is taking the action it needs to maintain its mandate and not blindly sticking to a set term of rate hikes regardless of momentary data blips.
Canadian Dollar Crosses Overlay - Shows Canadian Strength across the board during comments Trade Agreements And Policies The next aspect we’ll take a look at is the elephant in the room, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Our analyst Deepta takes an extensive look at USMCA here - USMCA - NAFTA 2.0 – and what it means for Canada, so what I want to focus on is BoC’s Wilkins’ comments. She states that the Canadian “Economy is becoming more resilient.” And that “USMCA reduces uncertainty,” and that fact alone is good news, Governor Poloz does also state the caveat that “Tensions between US & China could hit Canadian export growth.” Since the comments, the USD/CAD rate has seen quite a bit of activity however it has not moved much from where it was beforehand.
The market seems to be interpreting the hawkish comments from the BoC members regarding both rates and USMCA as positive for the Canadian Economy and is pricing it in accordingly. Are Canadian Stock Markets In Trouble? Amid the recent ‘Global Stock Rout’ the S&P TSX ended October down 6.51% following a somewhat hard month.
However, during this risk-off flight to safety, the S&P TSX Index may have had its pain exacerbated by the heavy makeup of energy companies populating the Canadian index. As discussed in previous articles - Oil - Can basic Economics be responsible for an 11% decline – Oil has seen some very aggressive sell-offs. Current market conditions have the commodity breaking below the $50 a barrel level amid supply concerns and growing global tensions.
Keep in mind with Canada’s energy companies occupying an 18.6% weighting of the S&P TSX; undoubtedly this has been a weight around the Index’s neck dragging it lower. Contrary Views To The Health Of Canada's TSX Index Chief Investment Strategist for BMO Capital Markets, Brian Belski stated that the similar declines were seen in 2012 & 2014 (of 11.5% and 12.5% respectively) on average saw rebounds of 18.22%. And he considers this particular sell-off as no different given that it was a flight to safety out of equities and that the major US indices led the TSX's decline.
RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Eric Lascelles mirrored this sentiment and stated that despite the reason decline and consumer concern over rising interest rates, the Canadian Economy is healthy and he cannot see it declining further into bear territory. Lascelles also says that instead of fearfully selling off, investors should seek opportunities to buy as the stock market dips since the financial crisis have typically unwound quickly. So with proactive steps being taken by the Canadian central bank and consensus for a turn around in the Canadian stock market, we could be looking a further strengthening in both the Canadian Economy and potentially the Canadian currency crosses — certainly ones to consider for the watchlist over the coming months with the next BoC decision taking place on December 6th.
For more information or any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter – @Alex_GoMarkets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

All the talk about whether Mark Carney will leave the Bank of England in 2019 or not has ended, the current Bank of England governor has extended his stay at the central bank until January 2020 as Chancellor Philip Hammond announced it on Tuesday. So it is now time to focus on the upcoming Bank of England rate decision at on Thursday. Who Decides The Rates?
Interest rates, set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, is made up of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks' Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Expectations It is highly unlikely that the interest rates will rise from 0.75% in the following meeting. However, it will be essential to keep an eye out about the latest UK labour market data, which released by Office of National Statistics for any indications on the central bank's further moves.
UK Economy & Brexit Update On 10th September, the Office of National Statistics released the latest data which showed that the UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in May to July, up from 0.4% growth in three months to June and highest since August 2017. Some positive news on the Brexit negotiations - the European Chief Negotiator for the UK Exiting the EU stated that a Brexit deal could be reached in 6 to 8 weeks. However, as we know from the Brexit process so far, anything could happen in the coming weeks, so it is still vital to keep an eye on comments coming from both sides to see if reaching a deal is even possible.
Financial Markets We saw the Pound strengthen this week against the US Dollar after the latest GDP figures and comments from the EU’s chief negotiator to its highest level since the beginning of August. GBP/USD is currently trading at around 1.30 level. GBP/USD Daily Chart As the Pound strengthened, we saw the FTSE100 fall to its lowest level since April.
Currently trading at around 7270 level. All eyes will be on the Thursday’s decision and comments from Mark Carney. FTSE100 Daily Chart The upcoming rate decision is set to be announced at 1.30 PM London time (GMT +1) Remaining Bank of England Rate Announcement dates for 2018: 1st November 20th December By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4

Just over a month ago Apple became the first company to reach $1 trillion market cap after its shares closed at $207 per share. Now Amazon has become the second company to hit the historic milestone after its share price rose to $2,050 per share. In case you didn’t know, Amazon offers a range of products and services through its websites.
The Company operates through three segments: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Company's products include merchandise and content that it purchases for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices.
Not many people expected Amazon to reach $1 trillion this quickly. Back in March, Brent Thill an analyst from Jeffries stated that Amazon would reach the milestone in 2022 when the share price was at around $1585 per share. But since then, we have seen the share price increase by around 28% and Amazon become world’s second company to reach $1 trillion market cap.
With Amazon continuing acquiring new companies, we could see the share price rising in the future. The Worlds Richest Person It is worth pointing out that Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s CEO is world’s richest person with total net worth of $166 billion. He has increased his net worth by $66 billion just this year alone, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Interestingly, if you bought $10,000 worth of Amazon shares back in September 2008 at $80 per share, they would now be worth around $253,750 USD at the share price of $2,030. You might not be the world's richest person had you made this trade, but perhaps pleased with the overall profit margins. So has the market topped out or is this just the beginning of further growth for the Nasdaq stock?
The jury is still out on this one. By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: TradingView, Google.
