市场资讯及洞察

今天我们不聊马斯克、不讲苹果，而是请出一位你可能没听说过，但每天都在用的“幕后英雄”——Figma！就在昨晚，他上市了！开盘当天股价重现了Circle的风光时刻，IPO定价为33美元，开盘价85美元，最终收于116.30美元，盘后一度涨到146美元。这哥们是谁？一句话概括：“网页上的设计神器，程序员和设计师的共同战壕。”你每天打开的App、网页，那些漂漂亮亮的界面、圆润的按钮、会动的动画，很可能就是某位设计师在Figma里点点点、拉拉拉、拖拖拖搞出来的。谁是Figma？Figma最大的看家本领就是：“设计不求人，远程协作一点就行。”传统设计工具，比如Adobe家的Photoshop、Illustrator，功能确实强大，但对新手极其不友好，一个界面能把设计小白劝退三轮；你想协作？只能发PSD传来传去，一边画图一边骂“谁又动了我的图层？！”Figma出来之后直接开大招：“兄弟姐妹们，来吧，一起在网页上画图，就像用谷歌文档一样！”于是设计师喜极而泣，打工人鼓掌叫好，老板也眼含热泪：“终于不用买高配电脑跑设计软件了！”疫情期间大家都居家办公，Figma这波“协作+云端+居家办公”三重Buff直接拉满，用户数飙升，成了设计圈的“顶流”。Adobe看上了它，结果——黄了！时间来到2022年，Figma实在太火，老牌设计巨头Adobe坐不住了：“这小子抢我XD和UI用户，我不收了它，还怎么维持我创意软件一哥的地位？”于是Adobe大手一挥，报价200亿美元现金+股票收购Figma，创下历史最大软件工具并购之一。Figma也收拾行李，准备入住Adobe的“大豪斯”。结果还没过门，“叮咚——反垄断警察来了！”欧美监管机构一拍桌子：“你Adobe都快垄断设计界了，还想把唯一的‘后起之秀’也收走？没门！”最后这桩世纪联姻胎死腹中，双方于2023年底官宣分手。表面上是监管反对，但业内八卦却认为，Adobe根本就没怎么认真争取，而是——变心了。AI来了，Figma哭了，Adobe也不爱了2022年底，ChatGPT发布，AI一夜之间站在了风口浪尖，Adobe当即悟了：“未来的设计，还画啥图？一段提示词搞定一切！”于是Adobe转身投入AI怀抱，Figma突然成了“过去式的投资”。收购的兴趣也冷了，像极了电视剧里那种“我妈不同意我们在一起”的分手场景。Figma很懵：“哈？你不是说好娶我的吗？”不过Figma也不是吃素的，立马反手来一句：“那我就自己上，IPO见！”财务成绩单：小透明也能硬刚巨头别看Figma被退了婚，它的财务成绩单相当能打：2024年营收达8.21亿美元，同比增长48%，自由现金流利润率高达28%（同行中位数才18%），全球用户超1300万，80%以上来自美国以外。这水平，已经是“赚钱界的清流”“设计界的尖子生”。所以说，不上市都对不起自己这成绩。AI是救星还是滑铁卢？当然，Figma也知道不能只靠旧模式吃老本，也要AI化，于是推出了Figma Make：“你说一句话，它就能生成一整个App原型，自动带交互。”听着很猛，结果刚上线就被网友吐槽：“你这不就是Vision Pro演示的翻版？”最后不得不下架整改，打脸啪啪响。与此同时，Framer、Cursor、Llama、Lilin、Penpot等一众AI设计工具早已杀疯，纷纷推出“自动排版”“智能设计助手”。甚至连完全不会设计的人，现在都能用AI拖个网站、拼个原型，三分钟出成品。有设计师表示：“我直接截图Figma里的草稿丢给Cursor，AI给我出高保真页面，比手动快十倍。”Figma有点慌，但还得装镇定。一边砸钱搞AI研发，一边祈祷用户别被别家AI工具挖走。那Figma会不会凉？说实话，现在的Figma就像一个聪明又努力的实习生，能干些活，也挺懂事，但离成为“AI时代的设计副驾”还有点距离。目前Figma的AI功能更多是试验性质，还达不到像微软Copilot那种全流程辅助的水平。而竞品在猛追、AI迭代飞快，能不能守住自己的C位，全看它能不能尽快把AI这张牌打明白。但有一点可以肯定——在这个人人都讲AI故事的时代，Figma至少在讲真话、干实事，不像一堆光说不练的“泡沫独角兽”。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

刚刚过去的24小时，对市场而言堪称“信息风暴”——经济数据、政策表态、企业财报与地缘消息接连释放，金融市场步入真正意义上的多线博弈阶段。首先是硬数据重磅落地。美国第二季度GDP年化增速达到3%，远超预期的2.4%，不仅显著反转前值-0.5%的表现，也彻底打消了市场对经济衰退的担忧。同时，二季度核心PCE年化增速回落至2.5%，显示通胀有所缓解的趋势。但需注意，通胀仍未明确转折，今晚即将公布的6月核心PCE（预期2.7%）将进一步验证通胀压力是否真正在消退。就业方面，非官方“小非农”数据显著高于预期，为周五非农数据“预热”。鲍威尔在美联储会议后重申，当前通胀控制优先于就业担忧，联储内部对于利率路径出现明显分歧，已有两位票委投下反对票，为30年来首次。尽管维持利率不变，鲍威尔未明确给出降息时间表，甚至在新闻发布会上“偏鹰”，导致美股后半段显著回吐涨幅。不过，高科技巨头撑起了市场信心。微软与Meta发布强劲财报后股价盘后大涨，提振整体股指期货上涨，今晚市场情绪有望延续向好。与此同时，苹果与亚马逊财报将在明晨公布，市场普遍持乐观预期。美元方面，受数据连续利好推动，强势上涨逼近100大关。此前我们提及的澳美、美日等美系货币对已出现波段性机会，黄金受压回落，人民币汇率受美元带动被动调整，澳元兑人民币顺势回落，整体逻辑均被验证。政策方面，白宫如期发布数字资产监管报告，未透露比特币储备计划的新增内容，数字货币板块整体波动有限；关税消息再起波澜，特朗普宣布对印度加征25%关税、对巴西加征50%关税，欧美协议遭法国公开批评，后续谈判空间仍存。市场正在迎来七月收官与八月布局的关键窗口期，建议投资者关注今晚核心PCE及重磅财报发布，同时留意美元强势周期下的交叉资产波动，合理配置仓位与节奏，控制情绪性交易风险。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

在这个信息爆炸的时代，炒股早已不是拍脑袋做决定的年代。面对成千上万只股票，如何从中筛选出真正有潜力的标的，成了每个投资者绕不过去的问题。靠消息？靠感觉？这些方法或许偶尔奏效，但注定难以长期稳定。这时候，一个强大的工具——TradingView，能帮你大大提升效率。作为全球领先的图表分析平台，TradingView不仅有丰富的技术指标和图形工具，更内置了强大的股票筛选器（Stock Screener），帮助你用数据说话、用逻辑选股。本文将带你一步步了解如何在TradingView上进行科学的选股操作，让你从海量股票中，快速定位符合你策略的优质标的。目前GO Markets已正式支持TradingView交易功能，连接账户后即可直接在图表上下单，省时又高效。还没体验过？快来注册一个试试吧！首先，打开我们的Tradingview筛选器平台：https://cn.tradingview.com/screener/

在页面上方的筛选选项中，我们可以根据一系列技术指标和基本面指标来筛选股票，也可以按地区进行分类。例如，如果我们想筛选出所有美国市场中、过去一天涨幅超过5%的大盘股，只需在筛选器中分别设置“市场”为“美国”、“涨跌幅”大于5%、“市值”选择“大盘股”，即可快速获得符合条件的股票列表。

我们也可以设置更复杂的筛选条件，例如：如果我们希望找出近期在底部放量，且放量前处于下降趋势的个股，该如何操作？首先，可以设定两个基础条件，来判断股票是否处于下跌通道中：-股价小于等于50日简单移动平均线（SMA50），说明当前价格仍位于中期均线之下；-年初至今收益率为负，进一步确认这只股票今年整体处于下行趋势。

接下来，我们可以通过点击筛选器中的“+”号，添加成交量相关的条件。具体做法是：设定最近一天的成交量要高于过去30天平均成交量的100%，也就是至少放大一倍。通过这个条件，我们可以筛选出近期出现明显放量的个股。

综合以上三个筛选条件：1. 股价低于或等于50日均线，2. 年初至今收益为负，3. 最近一天成交量大于30日均量的两倍，我们就能精准筛选出当前底部放量、此前处于下跌趋势的个股列表：

总的来说，这种基于条件组合的选股方法，简单高效，远比我们逐一手动查找个股来得省时省力。在如今这个信息密集、交易节奏加快的量化时代，掌握一套快速、科学的选股流程，已经成为投资者的必备技能。很多时候，快人一步入场，就可能获得更理想的收益；而犹豫迟疑，往往就与机会擦肩而过。TradingView提供的股票筛选器，不仅逻辑清晰、设置灵活，而且可以帮助我们在庞大的市场中迅速定位潜力个股。希望这篇文章能帮你开启TradingView筛股的第一步，让你的投资更高效、更有依据。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

美股周一高开低走，最终三大指数涨跌不一，标普和纳指微幅收涨，道指小幅下挫。市场对本周将公布的经济数据与贸易政策走向保持高度敏感情绪。虽然欧美方面达成部分关税协议，但并未有效带动市场情绪上行，投资者显然更关注后续执行与实际落地情况。在对外政策上，有关关税、朝核、能源等多重议题仍在发酵。市场当前聚焦特朗普提出的全球关税参考区间（15%-20%）及中美新一轮沟通动向。同时，美国对外政策立场趋强，地缘因素对风险资产的压制作用依旧存在。在板块表现上，美股走势分化明显。AI概念持续升温，受AI大会推动，超微电脑单日上涨超10%，英伟达再度创出新高，特斯拉与AMD也延续反弹走势。相对而言，核能板块全线回调，前期强势的电力供应类股仅维持小幅波动。数字货币概念仍处于整理阶段，受短期利空与估值调整影响，相关个股延续上周弱势。不过市场情绪有望在后半周得到修复——以太坊基金会将于月底举办成立10周年庆典，美国也将首次发布数字资产政策报告，此外包括Coinbase、MSTR与Robinhood在内的财报预期普遍乐观，短线回调或为波段机会。宏观层面，美元强势回归。周一美元指数大涨逾1%，重返98平台，主要受益于本周GDP数据与相关利好预期。黄金受压，但仍企稳3300美元上方；油价显著反弹，恐慌指数小幅下滑。汇市方面，美元领涨主导本轮节奏，美日站稳148，具备进一步上行空间；澳元整体仍具韧性，兑美元稳定在0.65上方，对人民币则回落至4.68附近；美元兑人民币升破7.18，整体延续强势格局。整体来看，市场在七月最后一周进入关键观察期，投资者宜重点关注即将公布的宏观数据及科技巨头财报，同时对高估值资产保持审慎布局，等待更清晰的政策与趋势信号。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

The setup appears to be perfect. You convince yourself that this is the trade. You execute the order, and within minutes, what seemed like a likely winner becomes another painful lesson in market donation.This all-too-common scenario boils down to a fundamental flaw in human decision-making under pressure. When we experience strong emotions, whether from recent losses, FOMO, or overconfidence, making consistently good decisions becomes increasingly difficult.The solution is not the use of complex trading EAs or expensive analytical software, but a simple behavioural intervention. Let’s call it “The 5-Minute Rule”.

The 5-Minute Rule

The 5-Minute Rule is a tactic that acts as a cognitive “circuit breaker,” designed to interrupt potentially damaging emotional decision-making that may begin to take over from that which you had originally planned to do.Its implementation is easy. You set in stone that before entering any trade, you take your mandatory 5-minute pause away from trading platforms. When it is done, then you reassess the opportunity using predetermined criteria from your trading plan.This intervention can allow your mind to shift from a reactive state, caught up in the heat of market action, to more analytical processing.Note: If the prospect of leaving a potential opportunity for a full 5 minutes seems mad, try a shorter time (e.g., 3 minutes) – it is the principle rather than the exact number of minutes that is the key here.

The Science Behind Emotional Trading

When experiencing intense emotions, your mind has a tendency to trigger a “fight-or-flight response” that can bypass rational decision-making. This can create several cognitive distortions, which result in a trader moving away from what they have written in their plan.Here are a few of the more common cognitive distortions:

• Loss Aversion: Investors value gains and losses differently — the emotional impact from a loss is much more severe than from an equivalent gain.

• Overconfidence Bias: Overconfidence in ability can lead to emotional and reactionary trading decisions.

• Confirmation Bias: Traders seek information that supports entering a trade, while ignoring signals against it.

• Recency Bias: Recent losses feel more significant, driving decision-making more than historical data suggests.

The 5-minute pause allows your mind to regain control — restoring access to logical analysis and learned trading principles and planning.

Trading 24/5 Markets

The continuous nature of forex, commodity, crypto, and index CFD markets makes emotional discipline particularly crucial. Currency pairs often present multiple "perfect" setups throughout the day, making revenge trading after EUR/USD or GBP/JPY losses especially tempting. The 5-minute rule can be particularly valuable here as these markets typically offer sufficient liquidity, so genuine opportunities don't disappear within minutes.

Physiological Changes During Your 5-minute Pause

During primary and increasing emotional trading states, several measurable physiological changes occur that impair decision-making:

• Elevated cortisol levels potentially reduce memory formation and logical processing
• An increased heart rate decreases fine motor control and attention span
• Shallow breathing reduces oxygen flow to the brain
• Muscle tension creates physical discomfort that reinforces emotional distress

Research indicates that stress hormone levels begin stabilising and heart rate will return to your usual level within a few short minutes of removing acute stressors, and put you back in a potentially improved decision-making state.

Making Your 5-Minute Rule happen

The key to putting this into practice is self-awareness of your trading state. Asking yourself if any of the following are where you are now as you watch price action on the screen:

• Revenge Trading Psychology: The urge to "get even" with the market after a series of losses

• FOMO-Driven Urgency: Fear that missing immediate entry means missing the entire opportunity of a potential price mover

• Overconfidence: Desire to increase position sizes (and so risk) after winning streaks

• Frustration-Based Forcing trades: Attempting to create opportunities when none exist
• News-Reaction Trading: Impulsive responses to rapid market-moving prices after information release

Systematic Stages

There are four initial stages to managing this situation:

1. Recognition Stage: Identify your current emotional state through self-monitoring.
2. Acceptance stage: Accept that your urge for action may not be consistent with the plan, and it is okay to NOT take immediate action.
3. Separation Phase: During your allotted distance minutes, you should be focused on calm breathing and light movement, or perhaps engage in something unrelated to trading.
4. Reassessment Phase: Return to your screen and evaluate the opportunity using your predetermined criteria.

Post-Pause Evaluation Criteria

After your pause is completed, you should re-assess the opportunity against specific questions:

• Does this trade entry match my written trading rules?
• Is the position size I intend to take appropriate for my tolerable risk level?
• Do chart patterns and indicators support my trading idea?
• Does the potential profit justify the potential risk of loss?
• How does this trade fit within broader market conditions?

Measuring the Success of Your 5-Minute Rule

As with any intervention within your trading, it is critical to objectively measure its success. This provides evidence as to whether it works and gives some motivation to continue implementing it — even in the toughest trading situations.Track specific measurements to evaluate the rule's effectiveness on your key trading metrics:

• Win Rate Changes: Percentage of profitable trades before and after implementation
• Average Loss Size: Maximum risk per trade and drawdown periods
• Trade Frequency: Number of trades per time period

Also monitor subjective improvements in your overall trading experience:

• Stress Levels: Daily emotional state ratings both during and after trading
• Sleep Quality: Rest patterns on trading days
• Confidence: Self-assessed decision-making certainty. E.g., confidence in your plan.

The Compounding Effect of Emotional Control

The 5-Minute Rule's benefits may extend beyond trading outcomes in individual trades. Each successful pause strengthens your belief in what you are doing and how you are doing it, as your emotional regulation can become easier and more automatic. Over time, you may find they need the formal pause less frequently as their default response generally shifts from being reactive to analytical, and it is only in the most extreme situations where it is needed.It is a journey that takes time to master and a number of trades to begin to see the overall positive outcomes of adopting this within your trader’s toolbox.

Final Thoughts

The 5-Minute Rule represents a practical application of behavioural science to trading performance. It may be of benefit irrespective of the type of trader you are, the markets you trade, and the level of experience you have.It is a tactic related to a recognised physiological response to stress, where short-term emotional factors may have a significant effect on decision-making.Markets will always present opportunities, but emotional discipline to follow through on your plan is likely to help with long-term success. Think of it this way: if it makes no difference to your outcomes, then you have lost nothing, but if these 5 minutes of patience can place you in a better trading state, then mastering this could prevent years of potentially negative outcomes.

Most people think Nvidia got lucky with AI. They made chips that were good for gaming, and it turned out those same chips were good for machine learning.But that's not what happened at all…What actually happened reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of technology markets, and why investors often misread them.

Nvidia’s data center revenue flipped gaming in 2023

Why Markets Misread Platform Plays

Markets consistently undervalue platform investments while they're being made, then overvalue them once they succeed. Platform plays often appear to be terrible business decisions for years before they become obviously valuable.CUDA — Nvidia's software platform that made it possible to harness graphics card compute power for general-purpose usage — is the perfect example of this.When Nvidia was spending heavily on CUDA in the mid-2000s, the market saw it as an expensive distraction from its core graphics business.The investment made no sense. They were giving away free software to sell hardware, in an industry where hardware margins were already under pressure.Markets tend to price such technology investments through the lens of existing applications rather than potential ones. They can see the current build cost but fail to factor in the potential future value.

The Economics of Platform Capture

Technology markets have the somewhat unique capacity to shift from competing products to competing ecosystems.If this shift from product to ecosystem wars occurs, traditional competitive analysis can become almost useless.In a product market, a 10% advantage might translate to a 10% market share gain. In an ecosystem market, a 10% advantage can translate to a 90% market share, due to network effects and switching costs.This is why established companies with superior resources often lose to platform challengers. AMD and Intel both had as much (or more) money and engineering talent as Nvidia during its CUDA development years. But they were competing in the wrong game. They were optimizing for product performance while Nvidia was building ecosystem lock-in.

The Platform Investment Paradox

Platform investments create a paradox for public markets. The companies that make the biggest platform bets often see their stock prices suffer during the investment phase.Product investments have visible, measurable returns that markets can model. Platform investments have uncertain returns that depend on market timing and adoption patterns that are impossible to predict.This is why markets consistently undervalue platform companies during their growth phase. Traditional financial metrics capture the cost of platform investment but miss the value creation occurring in the ecosystem.By the time platform value becomes visible in financial results, the strategic opportunity has usually already passed. The companies that capture platform markets are typically those that invest before the value is measurable, not after it becomes obvious.

Nvidia’s 25-year Annual revenue growth - image by Motley Fool

Ecosystem Network Effect

Every developer who learns CUDA makes the Nvidia ecosystem more valuable. Every model trained on Nvidia infrastructure increases switching costs for the entire AI market.Gaining a competitive advantage in platform markets is more about ecosystem momentum than building superior products. The platform that attracts the most developers and creates the most applications becomes increasingly difficult to displace.Markets often misinterpret this momentum as a temporary competitive advantage rather than recognizing it as a structural shift in the market. They keep expecting "competition" to erode platform dominance, not realizing that successful platforms tend to make competition irrelevant.

What This Means for Market Analysis

The Nvidia pattern suggests that technology market analysis needs to focus more on ecosystem dynamics and less on product comparisons. The companies that will dominate the next wave of technology markets are likely building platforms today for applications that don't yet exist at scale.This requires looking beyond current revenue and margins to understand what infrastructure is being built for the future. The most important question isn't whether a company has the best current product, but whether they're creating the ecosystem that future applications will be built on.Of course, such companies are unlikely to achieve the heights of Nvidia, but the ones that find success will likely follow the same pattern — years of patient platform building followed by explosive ecosystem capture when the market inflection point arrives.Trade Nvidia and thousands of other Share CFDs on GO Markets — starting from just US$0.02 per share with no monthly data fee.