市场资讯及洞察

市场回顾

• 澳洲股市因为铁矿石下跌拖累矿业股，最终大盘下跌0.8%。
• 中国A股终于不再继续下跌，上证和深成都以轻微上涨收盘。
• 美股基本稳定。欧洲普遍上涨。
• 黄金回到1715价格。石油从高点回落到63美元。
• 澳元小幅回升到0.7670。比特币价格再上5万美元，达到54000美元。

热门话题

有关澳洲央行可能提前结束经济刺激而重新开始加息的声音在最近越来越多。这话还要从去年3月澳洲央行连续降息拯救经济说起，而众多专家对于澳洲房价的预测也从下跌30%改为下跌10%，在改口到基本不变，最后到2年可能会上涨12-22%。这一系列的变化其实也见证了澳洲疫情的逐步好转。根据数据显示，仅仅在过去3个月，悉尼和墨尔本的房产拍卖均价上涨幅度分别达到了惊人的11%和8.7%。大家注意，这是3个月，不是1年的涨幅。可想而知目前的地产市场有多火。自然，这快速上涨的房价势必将会拉大贫富差距，以及巨大的社会负面情绪。简单来说，如果你现在买不起房，那3年后将会更加买不起。而如果现在手里有房有钱的人，3年后将会有更多的房和更多的资产。毫无疑问，任何一个国家的央行都不希望短期内出现这么大的社会差距，如果没有疫情这个因素，毫无疑问，100%，如果三个月房价上涨10%，马上第四个月就加息。可惜，没有如果。澳洲央行行长在昨天悉尼召开的会议上重申，在澳洲工资加快增长以前，澳央行不会考虑加息。他说到，目前市场预期澳洲可能会比预定要提早加息，就需要在那时通胀率持续高于2%-3%的区间，工资增长也需要持续高于3%。但澳洲央行的判断是，在2024年之前，澳洲不太可能看到与通胀目标相一致的工资增长。澳洲央行行长指出，目前澳洲工资增幅只有1.4%，为有史以来最低的增幅。在疫情发生之前，工资增幅就很低，但疫情导致了工资增长进一步放缓。这种放缓意味着，现在离工资增长达到3%以上还很远。

简单的说就是，按照目前的数据和趋势推测，澳洲央行再次确认3年内不会加息了。那不加息意味着什么？这意味着房产和股市将会在未来3年内持续收益于0.25%这超级低的贷款成本。就像我说过很多次，钱多的，今年买房加股票，钱不够买房的也要买股票。要不然三年之后你和别人的差距就此拉开。再说回澳洲本地股市，大家知道澳洲最出名的所谓的科技互联网行业先购买后支付板块在过去几年是出尽了风头，其行业龙头afterpay也是从1澳元发行价一度达到150澳元一股，短短几年增长150倍，创造神话。但是在过去一个月时间里，由于美国科技股带头下跌，拖累了澳洲的小弟们也一起跌。Afterpay从最高的160附近跌到100澳元，几乎跌去了40%。Zip也没有好到哪里去，从高峰时期接近15澳元，跌到现在的8澳元多，下跌也超过35%。为什么他们跌这么多？除了因为之前上涨过快以外，另外两个重要原因是：1. 这两个公司至今依然不赚钱，虽然客户和市场不断增加，但是依然是需要不断融资输血。2. 澳洲证监会再次盯上了这个行业，并且向联邦检察官递交了两份刑事案件起诉证据。其原因就是大量澳洲年轻人在这类几乎无门槛，不需要收入就能获得小额贷款的过程中积累了很多负债，并且一旦不能按时支付就要偿还大量利息和罚款，甚至比信用卡还要高。这也让澳洲证监会非常担心年轻人的消费习惯容易让他们在疫情的背景下更可能积累负债，并且长期无法还清。

当然，由于目前已经有国际资本涉足这两个公司，况且就算是打官司，一直到最高法院，至少需要3-4年时间，因此这两家公司短期内不会因为输官司而遭遇损失。但是毫无疑问，目前他们的运营模式将会收到越来越严格的监管和审查。我个人不喜欢烧钱抢市场的公司，因为中国的共享单车就是前车之鉴，烧钱到最后投资者是需要看到盈利回报的。当然，如果你追求的是短期盈利，短平快出场，那是另当别论。

图形分析

英镑/美元：我从去年开始一直说，英镑和英国指数是发达国家里表现最差的，被严重低估了。大家要关注。因为英国不可能因为疫情亡国的，所以只要最后疫情好转了，那英镑和英国股指都会回来的。这话现在来看还是很长脸的。如果错过的朋友，最近可以考虑英镑重新进场的机会。过去一周回调不少，未来如果能上涨超过1.3930，那可以考虑继续进场看涨。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

热门话题

这次股市下跌中国股市跌幅是最大的，美国道琼斯股指不跌，反而创出历史新高了，这是什么原因呢？

我们之前提到过，目前的全球资本市场里面，两个地区的股市起到主导作用。第一就是传统的老大哥美国资本市场，美国的股票市场涨，基本上全球的市场都会跟着涨。另一个就是中国股市。中国的崛起，在经济和政治地位上，在对世界的影响力逐步加深。现在由中国股市率先引发的快速下跌和回调，带动了全球其它股票市场回落。中国股市为什么下跌速度这么快？其中非常关键的一点，跟海外不太一样的，就是中国目前处在政策上的信贷紧缩。中国房地产市场在过去的半年到一年的时间里面价格快速上涨，像深圳房市在去年底到今年3月份中间，每个月平均上涨幅度都超过了2%，部分地区达到了4%。北上广深等这些一线城市或超一线城市的房价上涨接近了20%甚至更高。这对中国政府调控房地产市场是一种负面的反馈。政府一看现在房子涨这么高，老百姓住不起了怎么办？会不会引发社会问题，这是政府需要首要考虑的。必须要抑制房价的上涨，中国政府在这件事情上是非常强硬的，就是房住不炒。信贷紧缩的主要逻辑是什么？其实就是停贷。

目前由于新的通知落地之后，按揭贷款的政策走向发生了改变。1月29号到31号，关于信用紧缩的政策通知发出来了，上海银保监局和北京银保监局，先后发布了加强个人住房信贷的通知，加强监管。在2月1号北京要求各银行对2020年下半年发行的个人消费贷和个人经营贷款以及房贷进行彻查。在短短几个半个月或者几个星期时间，紧缩的效应就产生了，大家手里没有钱了。比方说你买房子在北京或者上海买一套1000多万的房子，首付三四百万，后面如果房贷紧缩了，你可能要多拿出来一两百万放在房地产市场上去，因为银行原来你可以贷出来七八百万，现在少了一半，你要补齐这两三百万。你就要从别的地方去凑钱，不然这个钱就还不上了，因此市场上的资金快速紧缩，自然大家要从流动性比较好的资产上，股票市场上抽钱出来，去弥补房地产上资金亏损或者资金的流动性不足。因此中国市场开始率先下跌，传递到香港市场，进而传递到美国和欧洲市场，尤其像中概股，比如拼多多，此前我们非常看好这一类中概股，在最近的下跌幅度就非常大了。

美债收益率继续走高，很多人再次提出来经济停滞和通货膨胀可能会同时发生，你认为这一情况会不会到来，有没有解决的方案呢？答案是有可能到来的。目前我们的经济在通过政治政策上和财政政策，货币政策来加速复苏。但是实际上人们的信心以及储蓄的能力和投资的能力的恢复是需要时间来递延的，并且它的资金或者是我们社会财富从上端传递到下端，是需要时间和过程的，并且需要通过一些商业方式来转换价值或转换资产。政府推出来的对直接对上游进行的信贷支持和流动性支持，就是通过银行来放贷。通过上端和下端在打通整个商业环境和资金在整个社会结构里面流动，它需要时间，他要比方说我们拿到这4万亿美金，我们到底是去消费还是怎样，我要这个钱要转起来，那么在运转的过程中才会创造出社会价值，如果这个钱我们只是存在银行里，我拿到政府发的400美金，我不去用，他其实最后也没有是对社会形成任何的价值，它只是一张纸币。在目前的这种信心不足以及失业率较高，大家对工作没有信心，对未来的收入预期没有信心的情况下，其实我们是不愿意去过多消费的。因此从中长期来讲，滞涨是有可能来临的，就是经济的停滞和通胀。通胀前提是收入，居民收入要增加，我们的消费信心增加，消费增加，然后进而大家的劳动力换来的价值就会增加，所以说它是一个正循环，合理的通胀对经济是有利的。在未来很长一段时间，我们的经济复苏不会像07年08年那样产生一个V型复苏，虽然同样是搞大型的设基建以及货币宽松，但是我们现在更多像是k型复苏，因为我们社会正在产属于一个技术革新以及技术更替的过程中，以前我们10年20年的经济体系不变，是基于我们的传统劳动力的劳动价值不变，什么意思？就是我们在大学学的那些东西学的，我通过5年的上学，学来的东西在社会上是直接能为我们个人为家庭产生价值产生收入。但是在未来不一定的，我们在大学里学了4年，学了8年的知识，可能对社会没有任何价值，你找不到工作，或者是你所学的东西已经被时代淘汰了，那么我们就需要再重新在社会上从零开始学习，因此时间成本就会继续增加，所以就会产生k形复苏，k形复苏的本质就是它会根据你所选择的学业和行业，然后享受到行业的红利，比方说我们选择了一个IT类的或者是芯片制造类的，这个行业就会随着行业的整体发展，你所学的专业就会马上创造出巨大的社会财富和生产力。

比如，现在到电动车造特斯拉的倒车都需要芯片，挖矿矿机挖比特币需要芯片，所以说这个行业就非常好，那么k线复苏的它就是k线的上面的线，它会一直往上高起。我们在大学学了这4年就直接能够运用到社会实践中，但是 k线的下半是什么？就是我们传统的所学的这些行业，可能被IT代替的，可能被计算机软件代替的。比方说司机，未来如果是电动车自动驾驶产生的，那么我们学的是这些驾驶类的工作，就可能不会有那么好的回报。所以说k型复苏它使行业加速分化，预计未来5-10年，哪一些行业能够给我们带来更多的社会性的创新和财富，然后选对行业。选对方向，然后我们再去努力，选择比努力重要。

图形分析

AUDUSD（澳元兑美元）：澳元价格跌落至0.7720下方，原有支撑变为阻力，向上动力缺乏。短期可以关注逢高做空的机会，止损为前方高点0.7800。止盈可以设置在0.76下方。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

Almost every country in the world has a stock exchange with some countries having multiple exchanges. There are over 60 major exchanges across the globe with the total market cap of over $85 trillion. But only 18 of those are in the so-called ''$1 trillion club''.

The top 18 stock exchanges have a total value of $77 trillion which makes up around 90% of the total global stock exchange market cap. United States The United States has two of the largest stock exchanges in the world - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ). NYSE is the largest with a market cap of just over $23 trillion, that’s around $12 trillion more than second largest stock exchange NASDAQ.

Some of the biggest companies listed on NYSE include the tech giants Apple, Google, Microsoft and world’s 4th largest company by market cap - Amazon. Asia The largest stock exchanges in Asia are located in Tokyo (JPX) and Shanghai (SSE), with total market caps of $6.06 and $4.53 trillion respectively. Some of the largest companies on the JPX include automotive manufacturer Toyota, SoftBank, Mitsubishi and NTT DoCoMo.

Europe The largest European based stock exchange is based in Amsterdam (Euronext) with a market cap of around $4.34 trillion, closely followed by the London Stock Exchange (LSE) at $4.32 trillion. Some of the largest companies listed on Euronext include American multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris, Procter Gamble and HSBC Holdings. South America Brazilian Stock Exchange (Bovespa) is the largest in South America and 20th largest in the world with a market cap of around $783 billion, followed by the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) at $393 billion.

Africa Largest stock exchange in Africa is based in Johannesburg (JSE), South Africa with the market cap of just over $1 trillion. It is worth pointing out that it was the first stock exchange to reach $1 trillion market cap in Africa. Australia At $1.45 trillion market cap the Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) is the largest in Australia with not much competition to the top spot on the continent.

Some of the largest companies include Commonwealth Bank, Westpac Banking Corp, and CSL Limited. The financial sector makes up around 40% of the total market cap of the ASX. Map of the Largest Stock Exchanges by Continent Source: Google Maps Getting Close To A Trillion The closest stock exchange to join the ''$1 trillion club'' is the Spanish Stock Exchange (BME) at $851 billion market cap.

Some of the biggest companies listed include Spain’s two largest banks - Banco Santander and BBVA and global energy company Repsol. Brazilian Stock Exchange in Sao Paolo is second closest the $1 trillion market cap at $783 billion. If it does reach the $1 trillion market cap, it will become the first South American stock exchange to reach the milestone.

Other two exchanges closest to the milestone include the Singapore (SGX) and Moscow (MOEX) stock exchanges at $727 and $621 billion market cap respectively. By Klāvs Valters This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

The 7.95% downward move on the British Pound (GBP) on the back of the Brexit vote was definitely one of a kind. The black line in the chart below shows the daily closing prices for the cable all the way back to 1975. The red line is the daily net changes (measured from close to close) during the same period.

As you can see, never in the past 41 years have we seen a daily move like the one that occurred on the 24 th of June 2016. Despite the uniqueness and magnitude of such a move, many analysts, led by the famous financial mathematician and author of “Fooled by Randomness” and “Black Swan” (which are both highly recommended for serious traders), Nassim Taleb, believe the Brexit move was within the boundaries of statistical properties, which is another way of saying it was not an outlier. Nassim Taleb’s Twitter account a few days after Brexit: Regardless of how you chose to see the Brexit events, in this article I am going to crunch some numbers to see if such extreme price actions can potentially have any explanatory power that can be used by medium and short term traders.

Analysis of GBP returns from 1975 - 2016 For this analysis, I first needed to define what makes a price change normal and what makes it extreme. To do this, I gathered the daily, weekly and monthly returns for the cable since 1975 to today (excluding the Brexit day) and constructed the table below. This table shows some of the statistical attributes of the cable over the study period.

For example, under the Daily column, you can see that historically 52% of the times the Pound has had a positive return and 48% of the times it has seen price depreciation on a day to day basis. Furthermore, this table shows that the average of positive and negative returns across all time frames is around zero. This is quite normal and holds across many markets (including stock indices) and goes to show how difficult it is to predict the direction of the market.

From here, I want to draw your attention to where it says “1% largest”. These are the returns that have only occurred 1% of the times and have all been equal or greater than the number that appears in front of them. For example, the under the daily column, it says that only 1% of the times, the sterling has recorded a daily gain of 1.56% or more.

Said differently, this line item shows that 99% of the times, the daily Pound return has been less than 1.56%. On the flip side, the “1% smallest” means that only 1% of the times, the GBPUSD has dropped more than 1.69% a day which is the same as saying that 99% of the times, the Pound’s daily return has been greater than -1.69%. From these two lines, I constructed the “Extreme” range which is one of the thresholds used for this analysis.

An extreme day is when a daily return is either greater than 1.56% or less than -1.69%. If a daily return falls between those ranges mentioned in the above, then I call that a normal day. Please note that just because of the way I have defined my normal range, I expect 98% of the times the Pound’s daily return falls in the normal range.

You can extend the same terminology for the weekly and monthly returns. For example, looking at the monthly range, if any one month’s return is between -7.34% to 6.33%, you can call that month a normal month. However, if it moves outside of those limits, then that is going to be an extreme month.

The last line in the table above shows another range which I call the Super Extreme range. These are the observations that have only happened 0.1% of the times. For example, for a daily return to be superextreme, it has to be either greater than 2.92% or less than -2.94%.

Now that we have established the thresholds, let’s turn our attention to the Brexit. The table below shows sterling’s return on the Brexit day, week and month. As you can see from the table above, Brexit was an extreme move in all time frames.

However, with the exception of daily prices it cannot be accounted as a super extreme move. Analysis of GBP’s extreme moves Now let’s turn our attention to the negative extreme moves and see what’s happened each time the cable has come across such extreme moves in the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The results for the daily observations are reported in the following tables.

As you can see under both extreme and super extreme scenarios, the market has usually bounced back in the first 10 days, and from there onwards the future direction of the market over the next 20 and 40 days has been a 50-50 game. Therefore, it appears that purely based on the historical daily data, we cannot draw any meaningful conclusion from an excessive down day. Daily Performance Next I looked at the weekly data and summarised the required information in the table below.

As you can see, there is a bit of an edge in the first 4 weeks after a large negative event. According to this table, 55% of the times the Pound has resumed its downward trend 4 weeks after an extreme negative event with an average price fall of -3.7%. From there onwards, the model does not have much to say.

Weekly Performance Looking at the monthly data, things start looking much better. According to the table below, in 100% of the times, once the sterling posts a negative extreme month, it continues downwards for the next 4 months where it drops by an average of 12.3%. Monthly Performance While the above finding is great and shows a future direction with a notable profit potential for medium term short sellers, it comes with a catch.

If you look at where it says “Total observations”, you will notice that there have only been five cases in the entire study period where the Pound has posted an extreme negative monthly return. So our sample size is too small. What makes the matter worse is when you realize that all of these five cases are either in relation to the Pound crash in 1992 or GFC in 2008.

Therefore, unless you believe the GBPUSD is fundamentally in the same situation (1992 or 2008), then it would be really hard to draw a meaningful comparison. Extreme Monthly negative returns since 1975 Beware of extreme price actions Based on the information provided in this analysis, unless you believe that the UK is in a similar situation today compared to where it was in 1992 or GFC, drawing conclusions based on outliers or extreme price actions seems to be a risky business. Also in a more generic term, it appears that extrapolating past events in the daily (higher) frequency is less informative compared to when lower frequency (i.e, monthly data) are brought to the picture.

The third point that I want to make is that big one day or one period moves should not be the basis of your trading systems. They may look compelling, but when you do some simple objective tests, they won’t pass. Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies.

Ramin Rouzabadi (CFA, CMT) | Trading Analyst Ramin is a broadly skilled investment analyst with over 13 years of domestic and international market experience in equities and derivatives. With his financial analysis (CFA) and market technician (CMT) background, Ramin is adept at identifying market opportunities and is experienced in developing statistically sound investment strategies. Ramin is a co-founder of exantera.com which is a financial website dedicated to risk analysis and quantitative market updates.

Connect with Ramin: Twitter | LinkedIn | Ramin's posts

Last week's ATR: 95-96.1 From the daily chart below, we can see that the US Dollar Index is currently testing its right shoulder, and I have marked the left and right shoulders by two red rectangles. It will take weeks for the price to tumble around the rectangle area, and there might be a lot of fake movements occur, thus it is still too soon to determine a directional bias. While waiting for the outcome to reveal, we should bear in mind that a candlestick chart under larger time frame (i.e., daily or weekly) is like looking at the larger picture.

By keeping daily or weekly chart as your main chart to look at, it should help you to try and avoid some of those fake breakouts on smaller time frames such as 4 hours chart. Last week, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive week, and the Fed’s interest rate hike news continued to support this trend. Federal Reserve Powell pointed out on Wednesday: "Interest rates are still loose, but we are gradually moving towards a neutral level, which means neither blocking nor stimulating economic growth.

Interest rates may exceed neutral levels." In his fourth public speech in a week, Powell reiterated his optimistic expectation of the US economy. He also pointed out that the US economy is in a very stable, low inflation period accompanied with extremely low unemployment. This week, the market will focus on the US CPI report for September, which will be announced on Thursday (October 11).

The survey shows that the US CPI annual rate in September is expected to increase by 2.4%, the previous value is 2.7%; the core CPI yearly rate in September is expected to grow by 2.3%, the last value is 2.2%. By Lanson Chen – Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

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Markets are rattled by US- North Korea tensions as Trump vows to respond to North Korea nuclear threats with “fire and furry”. The senior administration officials and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson tried to find different ways to explain the President’s comments and play down the tough talk. Trump reinforced his threats stating “they should be very nervous, because things will happen to them like they never thought possible”.

The standoff has unsettled the financial markets worldwide. The DOW dropped by 200 pips and S&P 500 fell to sessions lows. The CBOE Volatility Index, the best gauge of fear in the market spiked by 45%. [caption id="attachment_58085" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: GO Markets MT4[/caption] The demand for safe havens has increased with the rising tensions.

Investors have switched to gold, yen, swiss franc and government bonds. USDJPY dropped to record low and Gold rose to its highest level in almost 2 months.. [caption id="attachment_58086" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: GO Markets MT4[/caption] The risk sentiment gets hit by the escalating geopolitical tensions as Japan and South Korea also warned of a strong response if North Korea launches missiles toward Guam. Trump intensifies its warnings to North Korea as he believes that even if Russia and China are backing the UN sanctions, it would not be enough or effective as negotiations have been going on for years.

The Nikkei index fell since the “war of words” started. [caption id="attachment_58087" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: GO Markets MT4[/caption] Chinese media warn that the US is engaging in dangerous confrontations. “The US is more powerful than North Korea, but in a real showdown I don’t think they would beat North Korea. There is a Chinese saying: ‘ A man with nothing to lose, doesn’t fear a man with something to lose ” Hu Xijin, outspoken editor of the Global Times said. The coming days will be crucial.

Investors will be looking for a “diplomatic outcome” rather than militaristic conflict. By: Deepta Bolaky GO Markets