市场资讯及洞察

Today’s flash crash in the FX markets was surprising to many of us. The triggers behind the slump in the currency’s markets are vague, and everyone was left wondering about a reasonable explanation. First of all, we think it is important to note that we are in a low volume trading environment and any reaction/news can be exacerbated in such thin markets.

Manufacturing Activity A series of PMI reports released on Monday and Wednesday highlighted the weakness throughout the global manufacturing sector which has increased fears about the outlook for global growth. Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.7 German Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 51.5 EZ Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.8 to 51.4 Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.9 to 53.6 US Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.3 to 53.8 The heightened concerns brought additional turbulence in the stock markets when trading resumed on Wednesday, the first trading day of the year 2019. Apple’s Revenue Forecasts Apple’s move to downgrade sales on slowing iPhone sales in China fueled the fears about the global economy.

Investors fled to safety and sought safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen which surged through key support levels. Major currencies crashed against the Yen before paring some of the losses. The strong moves in the Yen pairs prompted speculators also to believe that Japanese traders were forced to exit their short yen positions.

USDJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY and EURPJY (Hourly Charts) Source: GO MT4 In the stock markets, given that Apple is the bellwether for the technology sector, the surprise announcement weighed on the technology stocks in the Asian session. The performance in Asia/Pacific region was mixed, and investors struggled to find a direction. Source: Bloomberg Ter minal We may see more downgrades in the months to come as slowing global growth and trade tensions will probably remain the key challenges in the financial markets.

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军形篇 - The Chapter of Tactical Dispositions Original Text: 善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜。 Translation: Good commanders first evaluate the possibility of being defeated and then wait for an opportunity to defeat the enemy. Don’t you think this sounds very similar to using a trading stop-loss? The concept of setting up a stop-loss is to estimate and prepare for the worst case scenario.

As a commander, Master Zhu would suggest you treat the money in your account as your soldiers and take care of their lives. Let's say you're on the battlefield and you strategize that a plan of attack might sacrifice 50% of your army, that's 50% of your soldiers' lives (i.e., 50% of your account balance), surely no respected commander would approve that kind of attack. However, in forex trading, some people will quickly lose 50% of their money in a short period.

In Sun Zhu's eyes, this would make for a very unqualified commander. Therefore, placing a stop-loss that could cause you to lose 50% in a single trade is a poor decision. Most experienced traders might suggest a 2%~5% stop is a wiser move.

Even a 10% stop may be considered quite extreme. Would you risk the lives of 10% of your infantry? Some might argue that it depends on the circumstances, either way, the same level of consideration must be given in trading to have any chance of success.

Also, most traders lose 50% of their account or more because they fail to place any stop-loss measures at all. Under the context of the Art Of War, this means you never bothered to estimate the worst scenario before you attacked. In Master Sun’s eyes, that is extremely unacceptable.

Original Text: 不可胜在己，可胜在敌。 Translation: The ability to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands. The opportunity to defeat the enemy is provided by themselves. A very remarkable concept.

Many investors believe they can actively beat the market, which is wrong. The market is far stronger and smarter beast than the average person. Instead of trying to "beat" the market, more time and effort should go into improving yourself.

For example, try focussing on how to better to defend, such as setting up suitable stop-losses as the previous saying suggests. Once you've developed the ability to protect your soldiers, then all you need is to do is wait for an opportune time to attack (you can observe it from chart patterns), then and only then, will you be trading like an intelligent commander, prepared to lose a battle and win the war. Original Text: 故善战者，能为不可胜，不能使敌之必可胜。 Translation: Thus, a good commander can secure himself against defeat but cannot make sure of defeating the enemy.

Master Sun corrects us here on another common misunderstanding. Nowadays many fund managers will brag about their “target profit” to attract your attention. As an individual investor, you might be vulnerable to being misled and start to think “maybe it's good to set a target profit for my investing too?.” Well, Sun Tzu would argue that this is wrong.

If you set a target return for yourself and you are unable to achieve it, you will most likely become hurried and vulnerable. Imagine your basketball team is losing and it's the last few minutes of the game. How many times have we seen teams abandon their defensive tactics, throwing caution to the wind and put everything they have into the final attack?.

Perhaps having Michael Jordan on the court may help, but ultimately, this scenario doesn't end well for those losing teams. With little to no defense in place, the opposing team will typically score more points and much more easily than before making matters worse. The same logic applies to the financial markets.

There is a general tendency to increase your position and attack more at the worst possible time, and the market will more often punish those who fail to defend their position adequately. Original Text: 故曰：胜可知，而不可为。 Translation: Hence the saying: You may know how to win, but sometimes you are not able to do it. Original Text: 见胜不过众人之所知，非善之善者也； Translation: To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.

Original Text: 战胜而天下曰善，非善之善者也。 Translation: Neither is it the acme of excellence if you win and the whole world says, “Well done!” to you. In this paragraph, Sun illustrates another common misunderstanding by the general public. You probably heard of the 20-80 rule, which states that roughly 20% of the population controls 80% of the global wealth.

You may have also heard that 20% of the population will win at trading while the other 80% will lose. When it comes to trading, this theory suggests the most popular idea about price direction will cause you to lose money in the long run. Thus, if your opinion falls within the common herd, then perhaps you need further training as a trader.

Many beginner traders will follow those famous pundits on the major television stations. You know the ones I'm talking about, those who claim they can predict the market direction with 80% accuracy and never fail. If we consider the 20-80 rule above, then this claim starts to sound quite absurd or should at least raise some internal alarm bells.

Most of these analysts have a claim to fame because they successfully predicted one or two big financial events, say the start of the 2008 crisis. Does this mean they can accurately predict every other upcoming event with such accuracy? Of course not, nobody can.

Hence, Sun Zhu said those who won the applause of the whole world might not be as good as you think. Original Text: 故举秋毫不为多力，见日月不为明目，闻雷霆不为聪耳。 Translation: To lift a hair is no sign of immense strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear. Original Text: 古之所谓善战者，胜于易胜者也。 Translation: Thus the ancients said an excellent winner is one who not only wins but excels in winning with ease.

Original Text: 故善战者之胜也，无智名，无勇功， Translation: Hence his victories bring him neither reputation of wisdom nor credit for courage. Original Text: 故其战胜不忒。不忒者，其所措胜，胜已败者也。 Translation: He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.

Here Sun describes for us what kind of person can be known as an “excellence winner.” This person has trading success based on defense. They make minimal mistakes (i.e., choosing the right time, trend and setting up sensible stop-losses) they also understand that some losses are inevitable while protecting their account for future battles. This kind of success is often very low-key.

It's unlikely to receive any applause or stardom because he or she is not looking to parade their wins in public as it's all part of a more important strategy. Original Text: 故善战者，立于不败之地，而不失敌之败也。 Translation: Hence a skillful commander puts himself into a position which makes it impossible for being defeated and does not miss the moment of defeating the enemy. Original Text: 是故胜兵先胜而后求战，败兵先战而后求胜。 Translation: Thus a victorious strategist only seeks battle after the defense is guaranteed, whereas a losing strategist first encounters a fight and then looks for victory.

These two sentences summarized what we had covered today. First, make sure it is impossible to be defeated (by managing your positions and stop-losses well). In essence, this means even though losses are possible, blowing up an account on a single trade is not.

Seek the most opportune time for a battle (Open a position). Don't just go with the crowd. Do your analysis and study wisely.

Once opened, closely monitor the five elements of the markets ( we covered this in part 1 of this series), then you are heading towards victory. By Lanson Chen – Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

What Is The Art Of War? The Art of War is an ancient Chinese book on military tactics and strategy who written by Sun Tzu around 500 BC. These writings are considered by many to be the most significant literature on military tactics and wisdom that can be applied to everyday life ever conceived.

In this multi-article series, we will be interpreting this ancient text, and exploring its application to modern day investing and trading. The whole book has 13 chapters and is only 6,000 characters long, which is relatively concise for such an old and complex language. I will be breaking this down into sections, explaining the meaning behind each phrase and how to apply this to your trading style or strategy.

Military Style Trading Imagine this. You're sitting in front of your screen opening a candlestick chart and trying to figure out the recent patterns and getting ready to place an order. What if you viewed this chart like a military map?

The money in your account is like the soldiers under your command, and the buy or sell orders are like attack or retreat orders. Can you see what I'm hinting at here? —— Trading and War tactics are both arts and similar in many ways. So why don’t we try absorbing some knowledge from the ancient masterpiece?

Perhaps we'll discover some inspirational gems that we can use in our approach to the financial markets. Chapter 1: Strategy Tips: As we progress through the following sections, whenever you see the word “War,” try to replace it with either “Investment” or “Trading” in your head. Explanation: In ancient society, the theory was those who fail to consider strengthening their military force will die.

Nowadays, modern society suggests if you ignore investment principles, you will also die, not physically, but perhaps perish in mediocrity. For example, we all know that since 2008, the wealth inequality gap has become much worse. A vast number of billionaires have emerged, while the middle classes are considerably poorer than one decade ago.

Different Class Different Mentalities One possible explanation behind this is because most rich people tend to invest their money into the stock market or high yielding assets in contrast to the general middle-class who's mentality is geared towards savings and consumption. If Sun Tzu were around today, he'd likely suggest investments over savings. The reason for this is because investing can amplify your wealth if managed correctly, but the method of saving money could be considered a slow death.

Death By Inflation In short, cash in the bank is devalued over time by the act of inflation. While saving money is not necessary a bad thing for some, failing to learn about investing might mean sacrificing opportunities or degrading one's wealth as its value inevitably starts to erode on the sidelines. (1) Tao Explanation: Tao could represent the basic, intrinsic rules of each investment product. For example, the movement of a currency pair (say GBPUSD) is often affected by the fundamentals, news events (such as Brexit) or even just human behavior.

So how can we trade the intrinsic values as the price is always changing? The answer is to find specific patterns or characteristics that are inherent to whatever product you are trading. To do this, you need to explore all the elements and try to make an informed decision as to the possible move in price.

However, given nobody can predict these moves with 100% accuracy, perhaps the only thing we can do is use the following four factors as a guide to help eliminate bad trading habits, and increase the probability of executing profitable trades. (2) Time You can think of this second factor as Fundamentals. As a qualified investor, you should understand what economic data means (such as GDP growth, unemployment, CPI, etc.), What types of events could cause the price to rise and fall (for example you should know how Bond-yield affects the value of USD) As with the cyclical nature of seasons or knowing the exact time of the sunrise and sunset, fundamentals can provide clues as to when we should place a trade based on the upcoming data. This idea is just like a weather forecaster predicting the chances of rain tomorrow.

Keep in mind that the weather, like markets, is not an accurate science and is subject to change. (3) Earth Ea rth or Topography would represent the field of Technical analysis because this method explores the “landform” of a price chart. For example, the highs and lows are like highlands and lowlands in battlefields, with support and resistance lines acting as potential grounds to set up an ambush or mount a defense. By mastering technical analysis, you will be like a commander, studying the geographical features of a map, navigating the terrain and using this knowledge to plan an attack or send reinforcements.

I will use a straightforward chart to illustrate all the factors that mentioned in Sun Tzu's original text. From the chart below, we can see the trend of oil prices is going up, and the most obvious move is to look for an area of value. The idea is to place a buy order while the level is relatively low.

When the price approaches the trend line, perhaps this is a safer place an order? On the other hand, when activity reaches the upper band, in the context of Sun Tzu, it might be considered “too far and dangerous” to keep attacking; thus the best move is to retreat (close your position and take your profit). We'll be discussing more on topography and technical analysis in further chapters. (4) Commander A commander (i.e., investor) should aspire to obtain the characteristics listed above.

If any of these traits are missing, Sun Tzu would perhaps suggest you are more vulnerable to trading losses in the future. Thus, Investment is also a process of exercising yourself to become a better person. (5) Discipline Discipline involves organizing a set of rules to follow while trading and the text would suggest you should not change these on a discretionary basis. Similar to military orders on a battlefield, it is imperative a commander's orders are followed and not disobeyed.

In short, without discipline and proper execution, the fundamental and technical analysis that you apply above will be meaningless. By Lanson Chen - Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: DB Global Markets Research, "The Art Of War" -Sun Tzu.

One of the worlds most profitable Hedge Fund Managers Paul Tudor Jones called it in Tony Robbins Money Master Book " my #1 Trading indicator " and some of my colleagues in institutions and banks have referred to it as a key barometer for where substantial money flow often occurs. I am referring to the 200-Day Moving Average on a Daily chart and as the charts will demonstrate below the 200 MA (moving average) not only has the potential to reverse a currency market but can also be a general guide to where the overall trend is. So how can you use the 200 MA to potentially improve your strike rate in the currency markets?

It is generally viewed by most professional traders that if price is above the 200 MA they will not attempt to short a currency and will generally only look to use their trading system to buy into the market they are trading. The opposite when price is below the 200 MA, they will generally look to only short the currency pair they are trading. Trading systems that appear to have an edge on a higher time frame such as a 4-hour or daily chart can potentially be enhanced by applying this rule of thumb.

Following are 4 charts showing the 200 MA on a Daily Chart. If you’d like to apply a 200 MA to your MT4 platform simply go to the Menu at the top of the page, click on Insert, then click on indicators and then trend. You will see Moving Average listed there for you to click on and load.

Make sure you input 200 into the Period box under Parameters. Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Connect with Andrew: Email

Aftermath of Brexit Today we'll take a look at the aftermath of the Brexit vote using point and figure analysis. As we begin to process the magnitude of last week’s ‘Brexit’ vote, it is important to understand that we are still not of the woods yet regarding event risk and market stability. It may well be the start of an extremely volatile period that leaves many areas of the financial markets vulnerable to liquidity issues and potentially large swings.

It could be some considerable time before the dust settles, but in the meantime, we’ll use the Point and Figure method to help identify any potential trading opportunities, and analyse the currency carnage that was ‘Brexit.' GBPUSD Click for larger view Let’s start with most affected pair on the day GBPUSD. Difficult to assess prices at a new 30 year low We saw an incredible 10% move from a high of 1.5017 down to a 30 year low of 1.3227. At this point, it becomes extremely difficult to assess when you have relatively little price action to compare it with.

One element that has remained constant is the bearish resistance line as shown in the chart above. This downtrend was tested at those 1.50 highs and held strong just before the referendum vote. Perhaps a ‘Bremain’ decision would have painted a much different picture, but in this case, the leave vote has only added fuel to the fire, giving the Pound Bears a huge boost in momentum.

While finding areas of support at this moment in time is a tall order, if we look at where the previous supply level ran out on the chart around the 1.40 mark, this provides us with a clue as to what price action could potentially do in the short-term should the Pound see an immediate recovery. I suspect any retracement will consider the 1.40 level as key resistance and possibly even a turning point should price regain some of this lost ground. XAUUSD Click for larger view The next chart we will take a look at is gold.

Gold is leading the charge for safe haven flows As expected during Friday’s referendum, we saw a rapid increase in safe haven flows. Currencies such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and also precious metals such as gold, all benefited from traders/investors attempting to park funds into assets that are perceived as financially safer amid volatile environments. Gold itself moved over USD $100 in price from the lows of 1250 up to the highs of 1358.

When we look at the point and figure chart above, it identifies an uptrend (Bullish Support line) that began back in January this year. It’s plausible to imagine that larger market participants have been positioning themselves ahead of this major risk event long before it even took place as gold is commonly used to hedge against these type of market moves. With the current uptrend firmly intact, an upside target appears to be located in the region of 1400 an ounce.

Last time the gold price was at this level was back in March 2014, and given the congested price structure since this period, I think we might see a some staggered moves up to test this area in the short to medium term. Key support for gold is suggested initially at the round number of 1300, but even below this level, 1260 is shown to have greater importance with multiple weekly pivot points as shown in the candlestick chart below. Also on a brief side note, the yellow line represents the 200 Day Moving Average.

As you can see, the price is trading well above this line which provides further confirmation of an uptrend in place. Click for larger view AUDUSD Click for larger view Finally, a quick look at where the Aussie stands after the onslaught of Brexit. With the US Dollar gaining strength, it was inevitable that the fate of the Australian Dollar would suffer.

Recent bullish moves have been slashed, replaced with the familiar sight of a bearish resistance line as shown above. Bearish pennant formation suggests downward pressure I’ve left the previous bullish support line visible too as I believe it helps highlight the latest pennant formation on the chart. This triangular structure suggests further downside pressure could be building and during the upcoming days or weeks, the price could test the levels of 73.75 and 72.00 respectively.

A daily close above the 76.00 level would test the current downtrend and is suggestive of a bullish signal. However, until price breaks the 78.00 mark, I’d be inclined to look for selling opportunities in light of recent events. The theme will be a continued flock to safety As I mentioned earlier, it will take some time for the financial markets to settle and fully digest what occurred over in Britain last week and many of the implications are still yet unknown.

Let’s not forget with the upcoming US and Australian elections and ongoing negotiations between the UK and Britain emerge, market volatility will more than likely increase and sizable price swings become a regular occurrence. I suspect we will continue to see continued interest in traditional safe havens like gold and the Japanese Yen, at least until the end of the year. Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies.

Adam Taylor | Senior Analyst Adam Taylor joined the GO Markets' team in early 2013 and has gone on to become a valued analyst on our Research and Trading team. Adam's key strength lies in his technical analysis skills, perhaps honed over his time as a Champion Chess player for his native Scotland. While Adam's primary role is concentrated towards risk management for GO Markets, he's a regular contributor to our News and Analysis team, using the highly regarded but rarely used, point and figure method.

Connect with Adam: Twitter | Email | Adam's posts

Last night the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England kept rates on hold, which was expected. The CPI data came out worst than expected but no big surprises. We also had the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which was much better than expected at 4.7.

As to what was expected at 1.1, so it was a good strong figure. Unemployment came out a bit worse than expected at 277k. Now European and US stocks had a very good rebound last night off lows.

So the US 30 bounced off its support line at 17470 and it is looking like it could be a possible reversal point but we need more confirmation. This is due to a Brexit figure coming out suggesting the stay camp had a lead. This had a very big impact on Gold.

Watch our full report by clicking play on the video below.