市场资讯及洞察

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has been held since 1978. From 1978-1981 it was held at different locations but since 1981 it has been held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and this year is no exception. From 24 th – 26 th August 2017, the most influential central bankers, finance ministers, academics and other financial participants from around the world will meet again to discuss the issues facing economies around the globe.

About the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium The key feature of the meeting is discussion that takes place between the participants. Because of the high-profile participants and the topics that are discussed in the event, there is a considerable interest in the symposium, however, to help foster the open discussion that is critical to the event, the attendance is very limited. The topic for the upcoming meeting is "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy".

The event receives a large number of requests from media agencies worldwide, however, the press presence is also limited to a group that is selected to provide transparency to the symposium. Importance of the event The symposium is closely followed by financial markets participants around the world and over the past decade it has attracted more attention, this is mainly because what has happened in the past. Some of the biggest monetary policies were initially revealed at the event, although they were not formally announced.

During the event, any unexpected comment from any participants can influence the global financial markets. Here are some notable moments from Jackson Hole Symposium: 2005 – Raghuram Rajan (then professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of Reserve Bank of India) warned about risks that the financial system had absorbed throughout the years. Three years later, the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted into global financial crisis. 2012 – Michael Woodford (macroeconomist and monetary theorist, Columbia University) presented where he said that Fed’s stance on keeping its main interest rate near zero until a certain time would reflect pessimism about the speed of the economy’s recovery.

Later that year, the Fed announced it would keep rates near zero until unemployment fell to 6.50% and inflation did not climb above 2.50%. 2014 – Mario Draghi (ECB president) hinted that the ECB was edging closer to embarking on its QE path. During the event, Mario Draghi said that ECB could use ‘all the available instruments’. His announcement came just two months after ECB introduced negative deposit rates in the Eurozone, the financial markets rallied during his speech at the Jackson Hole.

The symposium is a must watch financial market event and it is worth keeping an eye on the discussions and speeches during the event as we may see statements from some of the most influential people from around the world, including FED’s Janet Yellen and ECB’s Mario Draghi, to name a few which could create some volatility in the markets. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets

Upcoming News » 10:30pm GDP - CAD » 10:30pm Advance GDP - USD » Sat 6:00am EBA Bank Stress Test Results - EUR, USD, JPY The JPY saw a wild trading session today as the BOJ boosts dollar lending and ETF purchases. Interest rates to be kept steady at this point. We found out on Wednesday the amount of the stimulus package.

This weekend we have the EBA stress test results, while today was important this could be critical. News has been emerging of the unserviceable debt the Italian Banks are holding. If we have very bad news emerging from these tests it could put real pressure on the European Union.

Some have spoken of a second financial crisis in the EU, lead by the collapse of the Italian banks. I hope we see levels not outside what’s known about currently. If there are very negative results released on Saturday we could see the USD open a lot stronger on Monday.

We had a wild Asian session today on the JPY with the JPN225 and JPY pairs all making strong moves. Today was a classic stay out and watch day. We had strong moves down but the counter rallies were deep.

The USDJPY had a 256 pip range. The JPN255 reached 16732 before dropping down to 16025 45 minutes later. Gold fell $9 and recovered back to a high of 1343 all in 30 minutes of trade.

The AUD, GBP,and EUR had smoother starts to the day all making ground on the USD. The AUS200 has pared early losses to be trading positively at 5575. I’m seeing 5585 as current resistance for the AUS200.

US30 is showing short-term support at 18385. JPN225 – You can see how strong the moves where today off the 15 min chart. Breakout type trades today could have been disastrous.

Two classic bull traps at the top of the range. The two largest moves all happened in under 30 minutes. We did have a nice bounce off the bottom of the range that produced a smooth rally.

I hope seeing this chart takes away the idea of trading events like today. While there was a lot of movement, catching it is the hard part and could have resulted in some good trades but possibly a lot of damage. AUDUSD – We had a very nice rally to start the Asian session.

Once.7544 was touched we have seen a turn..7500 is showing possible support on the 4H chart. This will need to be confirmed. The USD has started to show some strength early in the European session.

Good Trading. All times are in AEST Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies. Joseph Jeffriess, GO Markets Market Strategist

The newly-elected populist government in Italy will deliver its very first budget which will be pivotal to the Eurozone area. Italy has the second largest public government debt pile in Europe after the Greeks. The debt to equity ratio in Italy currently stands at 131.81% of its GDP, and market participants are questioning whether Italy will be able to repay its debt.

Debt to GDP ratio (%) [gallery size="large" ids=""] Why is the Italian budget a key event for the markets? The Italian Budget is crucial because it poses a potential threat to the stability of the bloc and the Euro. The Budget will dictate whether the new government will follow the European Union’s rules but most importantly, it will help to gauge whether the coalition parties are getting along well.

The Italian economy might not be able to support a massive spending bill. Investors will be most concerned about the fiscal roadmap of the country. The Five Star and the League have ambitious tax and spending plans which are the foundations of their respective party.

They have vowed to spend more, and for the coalition to work, the spending plans of both parties will have to be considered. The critical question that arises is: “Will the Budget blow the EU’s 3% deficit level?” Being one of the weakest links of the Eurozone, markets participants are wary of the possibility of a debt crisis. The EU has a ceiling level of 3% concerning a budget deficit, and investors are increasingly alarmed at the prospect that Italy might breach this limit.

The Budget will likely be focal in gauging its fiscal discipline. The budget proposals by the new Italian government has also placed Italy on the negative watch for Moody’s rating back in May. The evaluation has been postponed until further information on the budget is revealed.

The markets could see fresh turmoil if credit rating agencies flashed an adverse outlook on what the government is doing. According to the Minister of Finance, the Budget deal will be published in September, and we expect it to bring some volatility in the EUR pairs. Currently, the EURUSD is relieved from its selling pressure on the back on the US dollar weakness.

It is very probable that any noises about the Budget will cap any gains if there are rising fears that it will breach the EU Budget rules. Alongside any developments in the Italian Budget, EUR bulls might want to keep an eye on the Italian bond yields for fresh impetus!!

After being under a tremendous amount of pressure over the five past years, commodities, represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, finally started to show signs of relief when they rallied by some 11% (measured from close to close) over the past three months. This may not seem too much, but when you consider that since 1991 only 8% of the times the commodity index has rallied by 11% or more in any three-month period, and the fact that the size of this rally is almost twice the size of average three monthly rallies, then all of a sudden it becomes a meaningful one to watch. In previous articles, we have discussed why commodities, especially gold and oil have rallied so much, but the current question that traders face is whether this trend is going to continue or has it reached the exhaustion point?

In this article, we will look at history and try to answer the above question from purely price action point of view. To do this, we’ve looked for any historical returns that matched the current returns (plus or minus 10% variation to allow for random market fluctuations) and got the models to investigate what has happened to each commodity 1, 3 and six months after such events. The Commodity Index In total, there have been 15 other cases where the Bloomberg Commodity Index has rallied by around 11% over a three-month period.

Out of these, seven happened after the GFC (during the commodity boom), and the rest belong to periods before 2008 through to 1991. The table below shows what’s happened to the commodities each time they rallied by 11% in a three month period. The Commodity Index performance after an 11% rally in three months As you can see, an 11% three-month return doesn’t have much of explanatory power for the next 1-3 months as the number of positive and negative case over the next 1-3 months are almost equal.

While the next 1-3 months are not clear, trend direction in the next six months is in a much better position. Based on the table below, there is a 77% chance that commodities end up being higher over the next six months. Gold For the month ending 29/4/2016, gold was up by 21% compared to the closing price at the end of November 2015.

Since 1928, only 5.6% of the times gold has rallied by 21% or more in any five month period. During this period, gold’s average five-month positive return was around 12.6%. Therefore, the rally from the end of November 2015 to end of April 2016 is significant in both the size and the frequency of gold rallies.

The table below shows what’s happened to gold each time it has rallied by almost 19% over a five month period. Gold’s performance after a 21% rally in five months Like the commodities index, while the table above doesn’t have much to say about the direction of gold in the next 1-3 months, it suggests however, that over the longer term (August onwards) it may resume its rally. Oil As at the end of April 2016, Oil (represented by Brent) was up 39% from the January close.

Out of 331 three monthly returns from 1998 up to now, there have only been 12 cases where oil has rallied by 19% or more in any three months. With the average of positive three-month ret urns being around 14%, the recent rally is rare both in size and frequency. The table below shows what has happened to oil each time it has rallied by almost 39% over a three month period.

Oil’s performance after a 39% rally in three months According to this table, there is a 57% chance that oil keeps on trending higher from May to the end of July. However, this is not a great probability as it’s only slightly better than tossing a coin to predict the future direction of oil. Therefore, I won’t hold my breath on it.

Another concerning point in the short term is the sequence of monthly returns. If Brent manages to finish higher for May, then it would be the fourth consecutive month that oil has posted positive back- to-back returns. Historically, there is only a 40% chance that oil continues trending higher after it’s had four consecutive positive monthly returns.

Therefore, in the short term, I am not confident that oil can continue going higher (unless we get some new news about further supply disruptions which is a different story all together). US Dollar Since none of the above tables were able to give me a rather confident guidance for the direction of commodities over the next 1-3 months, I turned my attention to the USD index for some clues and this time I found something useful. In early May 2013, the USD index briefly dipped below the 93 support level.

However, it wasn’t long before the index rapidly rallied back up and went above its bearish trend line. According to the chart below, the last three times USD bounced back from the 93 support line, it easily rallied to 98 and once even touched the 100 area. Monthly USD index Chart The current rally also ended a three-month losing streak which began in February.

Based on historical data, once the greenback ends a three consecutive losing streak, it usually climbs by an average of 2% in the first month and keeps on appreciating by an average of 3% over the next 2-3 months. The table below suggests there is a 69% chance that the dollar keeps going up in the next 60 days. USD dollar performance after breaking a three month losing streak So no firm sign of exhaustion but… So far in this article, it is reasonable to conclude that while the current rallies in the commodities themselves have not yet reached a specific exhaustion point, due to a 69% chance of stronger dollar in the near term, one should adopt a rather bearish view or at least a conservative view on commodities.

Therefore, it may be the time to take some profits or at least not add any more long positions. Based on technicals, should the USD rally, I can see gold dropping to 1206 and then to the 1150 area. In the case of Brent, my first major support is around $43 with a possible extension to $41.

Weekly AUDUSD Chart Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks.

Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies. Ramin Rouzabadi (CFA, CMT) | Trading Analyst Ramin is a broadly skilled investment analyst with over 13 years of domestic and international market experience in equities and derivatives. With his financial analysis (CFA) and market technician (CMT) background, Ramin is adept at identifying market opportunities and is experienced in developing statistically sound investment strategies.

After eight long years of crisis whereby Greece endured stringent budget austerity programs, the country’s bailout will finally come to an end. Greece will therefore have to finance itself by borrowing on international bond markets. Before the bailout Greece was battling massive debt, loss of investment and huge unemployment.

Nearly €300bn were provided in “emergency loans” in three consecutive bailout packages. A long period of austerity helped Greece to avoid Grexit and started to grow again. Even though the exit is a big positive “milestone”, Greece is going to remain under enhanced surveillance given the unpopular amount of the bailout.

Government Gross Debt as a % of GDP Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook There are hopes that Greece might be a “success story” just like Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Cyprus but the debt problems in Europe are far from solved. A huge debt in Greece and Italy will remain the lurking financial threat to Europe. Net ECB Lending (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) Source: Bloomberg Terminal Aside from debt problems, the European Union is also facing other key challenges: Anti-austerity Government in Italy The debt problem in Italy has now turned into a political one.

The rise in anti-austerity government is a political crisis that calls into question the survival and stability of the European Union and its shared currency. It shows that the Eurozone problems had not be laid to rest. Brexit Brexit had elevated fears that other countries might follow the same step which is a crucial threat to the bloc.

The recent elections within Europe had revealed a rise in European populist parties. This created a situation that feeds fears that all is not well in the Euro. Trade Tensions The EU’s divided union prevents the EU to act in unison to fight the US on trade-related matters.

A wobbly European market due to the current trade risks coupled with geopolitical risks are constant threats for the common currency as European members with a fragile economy will suffer. Investors are indecisive on whether to return which might explain Europe eagerness to paint Greece as a “comeback story”. Greece’s bailout coming to an end is good but it still has a long way to go.

Debt problems in Europe remain a big threat and the political situation in Italy is an even bigger issue than Brexit.

Creating New Monthly Highs Yesterday gold reached a three-month high of $1,239.68 which, as we head into the final quarter of 2018, is once again stirring up price speculation and talk of a change in directional bias. While the fundamental aspects appear to be related to hiccups in global stock markets, we'll focus on the technicals for clues as to how these moves might pan out in the medium to long-term. Before we examine charts on the daily timeframes, I want to highlight something interesting on the hourly which is unfolding at the time of writing.

Looking at the chart below, notice that price action is finding short-term support around the current weekly pivot around the 1225.00 level. You can also see this predominantly sideways pattern which we will discuss further, prompting many analysts to suggest this price region as a sticking point for the metal. XAUUSD Hourly - Candlestick Chart On to the daily chart below, one thing that I am looking for here is some validation for a shift towards a more bullish sentiment, and even from a quick glance, evidence for this scenario is thin on the ground and limited at best.

First up, price action is still trading well below the 200-day moving average (gold line) which suggests the longer-term trend remains bearish. Next, we can see the formation of a bullish flag which initially sparked my interest yesterday, but now looking more like a false breakout with the price rejecting those levels above 1230.00. Of course, the potential is still there for this pattern to develop further.

It would be wise to remain cautious though. XAUUSD Daily - Candlestick Chart The last two aspects of this chart worth noting are that the current RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing signs of heating up again, pushing up towards those overbought levels seen around the high. We also have a missed weekly pivot at the 1208.00 level which I think may present the next best support level in the short-term.

Both of these elements are arguably bearish for gold. I've included some Ichimoku analysis below, as I believe it showcases the bullish flag pattern a bit clearer than the previous chart. The other reason is to recognise that although price action has managed to punch above the cloud suggesting little resistance, the lagging span (purple line) paints a more subtle story, one of quiet indecision as it sits within the cloud.

This indicator spells a mixed bias from a directional perspective and leads me to believe we could be in for additional sideways moves longer-term. XAUUSD Daily - Ichimoku Chart Depending on which chart you analyse, the general sideways theme is persistent in all of them. In similar fashion to how the Ichimoku chart best illustrated the bullish flag pattern, the point and figure chart below captures this overall sideways movement in my opinion.

XAUUSD - Point & Figure Chart Delving further, we find another potential clue for the recent bullish momentum. Notice the recent sell-off, there was a considerable increase in supply following a rejection of the key resistance area (triple top) at 1350.00 so what we may be witnessing here is the price attempting to consolidate. So, do I believe stock market jitters are causing buyers to step back into gold as a potential flock to safety?

In short, no. While there is undoubtedly a case for this type of activity, I think it's too early to tell. I've also mentioned in previous articles that gold hasn't been behaving as a traditional safe-haven asset of late.

The technical picture is clear; the gold market is uncertain and somewhat confused as shown by the sideways tendencies. At this stage, only a convincing break above 1350.00 would give credit to a more substantial change in overall sentiment and another bullish run. For the time being at least, no doubt the meandering will continue, but overall I remain bearish on the precious metal in the medium to long-term.

By Adam Taylor This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: TradingView.com