市场资讯及洞察

市场回顾

• 澳洲股市本周二因为国庆放假没有开盘。
• 亚洲股市下跌较多，上证指数下跌1.5%，香港恒生则下跌2.6%。日本也下跌超过1%。
• 欧洲表现不错，普遍上涨。
• 黄金，澳元，石油基本不变。波动很小。
• 比特币从29000回到32000。
• 美国疫苗蒙德纳公司宣布对英国以及南非变种疫苗依然有效。

热门话题

我们知道最近中国以及香港的部分股票涨势非常凶猛，像A股里的茅台已经达到了2000元一股，而香港上市的腾讯也达到了700港币。但是大多数的中小上市企业在过去12个月却并没有什么变化，很多股票还在下跌，这差别这么大，是为什么呢？众所周知，虽然自从2020年5月中国率先控制住疫情之后，启动了大规模的经济及货币刺激政策以重振经济。期间中国股市里的头部板块，尤其是中证300的前50只龙头企业，纷纷进入了牛市开始了为期长达半年的大涨。然而，大部分的中小上市企业，尤其是私营上市企业，却依然无法改变股价连续下跌的命运。最近网上有一副比较搞笑的图片，是牛的头，但却是熊的身子和腿，称之为牛头熊。

的确，中国和美国以及其他主要国家一样，都增发了天量的货币来帮助企业和其他实体经济度过难关。然而在真正的落实过程中，大部分的商业银行在选择放贷对象时会优先考虑的是国企上市企业，也就是同时满足国有，以及上市两个条件。如果没有上市的，国企也可以。但是如果不是国企，那就算是上市的私企，也优先考虑行业龙头以及市值排名前100的企业。对于大部分的中小上市私企，其实依然面临着贷款难，利息高，周期短等等不利条件。所以正像我之前反复强调的，中国的股市里，头部企业占据了太多了资源，从金融资源，到政策资源，到人才资源等等，从而导致真正留给大部分小型上市企业的已经是非常之少。但是我们知道，为了帮助经济恢复，供应了这么多额外的人民币，达到几十万亿的规模，这么多的资金，绝大部分是不能去海外的，因此我们想，这么多钱，能去哪里？房地产吗？不行了，限价限买了。那只有去股市。

但是如果去股市，谁都怕跌，谁都怕停盘下市，那怎么办？那就都去头部企业，前50，前100的企业就这样吸纳了大量的资金。前几年价格跌到不到1000一瓶的茅台，这几年又涨价到了2500，甚至3000。为什么？也许有的人觉得这是刚需，和房子，学校一样，送礼自己喝都可以。现在茅台的股价也从3年前的700一路上涨到现在的2000。而上证指数却依然还是在3600点。之前网上笑话说其他股价到1000了所有人都不敢买，怕有泡沫，但是茅台不怕，因为它是酱香型白酒，没有泡沫。其实对于大部分散户包括我们生活在澳洲，经济实力不错的朋友们，我依然强烈建议，不要去买消息股，尤其是小股票。对于我们个体和散户而言，我们只需要跟着行业龙头，跟着国有上市占大多数的A50指数即可。

有朋友可能会问，那既然你说这么多的大盘，到底你自己看好哪个？是中国A50，香港恒生，还是日本日经，或者是美国英国欧洲？这么多，我们怎么选的过来？我自己对于这个问题有三个原则：1. 看他们背后各自有多大的政策支持。比如如果同样是量化宽松印钱，那到底是印多少，是1万亿美元，还是10万亿美元？这是有巨大差别的。2. 这些国家，哪些是依靠传统产业或者第三产业，哪些是依靠高科技行业板块的？比如如果同样发行一样的资金，日本和法国，我会毫无犹豫选择日本。同样英国和德国我会选择德国。3. 哪些已经涨了，哪些还没有涨这么多。其实2020年，以及2021年对于大部分投资者来说，都是行情较为单一的一年，因为整个人类社会遭遇了巨大的考验，因此在这特殊的时期，股市的稳定至关重要。我一直在强调一点就是，金融市场是目前拯救经济和振奋信心的最后稻草，这最后的防线被打破的可能性有多大，咱们可以自己做一个判断。

图形分析

香港恒生指数：虽然周二恒生有2.5%的下跌，但是我们可以看到目前恒生依然保持在从2020年12月底开始的上涨趋势线之上。从技术上来看，只要恒生保持在29200以上，那目前的上涨趋势就暂时还没有被打破。其实如果我们用更长时间的日线图来看，那恒生距离打破长期趋势线那还远得很。我还希望恒生能回到27000点，那就是更好的进场点。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

市场回顾

• 恒生指数冲上3万
• 美国权力完成交接
• 国内疫情出现反复
• 日本央行维持政策不变

热门话题

周四澳股的行情可谓是继续稳中求进，澳股大盘站上6800大关。在上涨排行榜之上，支付板块表现优秀，支付二哥Z1P使用超过20%的涨幅成为昨日的先进标兵，恭喜在5块时抄底支付二弟的朋友们，这份恭喜来自只认大哥被啪啪打脸的Allen。对于Z1P而言，下一阻力是在8块左右。科技股WTC继续上涨，但没有能够站稳早上短信当中所提及的阻力大关，因此谨慎起见可能不宜大举追涨。而稀土LYC则是继续优秀，其距离5块的目标价格只剩一步之遥。对于现价的澳股而言，在我个人看来，有的板块可能已经不再便宜。要成功先发疯，头脑简单向前冲，从来都不是我的风格，我宁愿错过，不能爱错，大家酌情参考。而在货币方面，澳元兑美元迟迟卡于0.78的价格大关，买涨澳元可能仍需更多耐心等待。而考虑到美元存在短期反弹可能，因此澳元在攻破大关之前会有下探0.75区域风险。

讲到财经消息，今天有两条信息与大家交流一下。第一条是昨天澳大利亚刚刚出炉的最新一期的失业数据。根据数据显示，与11月相比，12月我们的新增就业人口达到了5万，我们的失业率下降到了6.6%。即便澳洲并未完全扑灭疫情，但显然在与疫情的这场战斗当中，最危险的时刻可能已经过去。而在全球市场之上，大宗商品与能源价格的走高，为澳大利亚经济的基本盘提供了最根本的支撑动力。大宗商品全新繁荣期的到来并非是在一夜之间，但目前从各种数据来看，它的脚步声可能正在临近。与大家分享的第二条信息是，昨天世界四大中央银行之一的日本央行宣布其货币政策维持不变。作为常年宽松的日本，这条信息可谓枯燥乏味。而另外四大当中的两大央行，在不发生恶性通胀的情况下，在我个人看来美联储与欧洲央行的货币政策，可能同样也只有宽松这华山一条路可走。我们翻看过去的10年历史，次贷危机之后美联储开创量化宽松政策先河，而随后时任美联储主席，现任美国财政部长的耶伦在2015年底，才真正叩响加息的扳机。当时的环境背景是，美国的经济情况在数据之上已经彻底从次贷危机中得以恢复并且企稳。而今时今日，经济环境显然不允许宽松这剂猛药停下来。而与之相对的是，在遭遇疫情冲击之后，不惜以停掉全国机器等重大代价以抗击疫情的中国，在货币与财政政策之上表现克制。这点可见设计者们改革之努力与决心。那这样的横向比较对于咱们投资者有何意义？结论就是对于中国的资本市场而言，如今仍然是处于抢车位时期，而下个10年的中国股市是大有可期。

从去年11月份疫苗进展消息让全球股市出现跳涨之后，讽刺的是直到现在疫苗的有效性还难有定论，但疫苗消息的最大作用是在一夜之间，让世界看到了战胜疫情的曙光。疫情终将过去，但在我个人看来，疫情对于我们社会的影响跟疫情对我们生活的改变将会是持续的。2003年的非典事件，让电商淘宝实现质的突破。而始于2019年的冠状病毒除了带来困难与挑战之外，对于我们澳大利亚投资者又会有怎样的机会呢？因为时间与篇幅关系，因此今天在这里我们只以淘宝案例来作为参考，那毫无疑问最直接的答案是澳洲的本土电商可能也已等来自己的闪耀年份，于是对于以KGN与JBH为代表的本土电商而言的股票可能会是中长期投资者们的不错买入目标。

图形分析

WTC：今天与大家分享的是主角是澳洲科技股WTC。不论是科技股属性，还是所处的物流行业都是目前大环境的受益者。从K线图形来看，昨天继续上涨的WTC股价行至趋势阻力区域。对于WTC而言，短期之内能否突破阻力价位让我们拭目以待。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

市场回顾

• 澳洲股市昨天上涨1.2%,再次爬上6700大关。
• 香港恒生指数昨天大涨2.7%，逼近到3万点。
• 美股在澳洲昨天收盘时盘外上涨0.5%.
• 黄金报价1845，石油价格则稳定在52.5美元。
• 澳元维持在0.77和美元汇率。
• 今晚拜登将正式宣誓当选新一届美国总统。

热门话题

首先来说恒生指数，我们看到本周二香港股市出现了巨大的上涨，其代表恒生指数更是几乎冲到了30000点的高位，对比2个月之前的价格几乎累计上涨了25%。这是有什么好消息或者新闻，导致恒指在最近有这么大的涨幅呢？

我们之前说过，2020年因为疫情的缘故，全球各大央行政府均采用大放水，低利率，等强烈的货币和财政刺激，全球几乎所有的资产类别都实现了上涨，无论中美股票，澳元加元欧元日元，黄金，数字货币，还是大宗商品。唯一的例外，纵观全球主要市场，似乎就是港股！港股2020年全年下跌，表现几乎在全球主要市场最差。究其原因还是美国在2020年相继出台了很多对香港不利的政治和经济政策，所导致了大量资本市场的资金害怕之后会有更多不利政策而撤离。那么，为什么最近港股又可以能重新开始上涨呢？就是因为美国总统要换人了。去年11月，随着美国大选特朗普的失败，港股和A50指数纷纷开始了一波强劲的上涨。虽然之后他一度努力想翻盘，但是推着时间的推移可能性越来越小，这样一来中美博弈今年就会进入阶段性缓和期，也就是暂时不会继续恶化。而拜登即将于当地时间1月20日中午正式就任美国总统。从此前的消息来看，拜登上台之后，将会推翻特朗普政府的政策。所以综合来说，港股到去年11月为止严重落后于其他主要国家的股市涨幅，过去一年，受到疫情和中美关系不确定的影响，港股基本是“跟跌不跟涨”，其他国家都上涨了，只有港股还在跌。也正是因为这样，港股的估值低于了其他主要资本市场，出现了明显的价值洼地，因此一旦局势转变，只要有好转的迹象，那大量资金就会通过港股通投资港股。另外一点，也是最重要的一点，就是中资与外资对于香港资本市场话语权的争夺战，这几乎来说不是经济问题，而是政治问题。所以我们看到过去2个月南下资金持续增加，港股定价权未来将很有可能从外资主导逐步转向内资主导。另外我们来说说石油。我们知道2020年的4月当时石油价格一度出现了负数，那今年石油价格还有可能会出现负数吗？这未来的油价是会继续上涨还是下跌呢？

首先，去年的下跌主要的原因就是百年难遇的疫情。别说咱们这代人了，就算我们的爷爷辈估计也没赶上西班牙流感。因此谁也不知道这次疫情会持续多久。因此当3，4月欧美全面爆发，英国第一次封锁时，给人们产生了巨大的恐慌。才会发生很多资产价格严重失真的情况。但是我们都知道石油的基本开采成本在5美元到50美元之间，但是大部分国家，特别是产油国，他们的综合成本需要价格超过70美元以上国家财政才能盈利，所以就算是现在的52美元，长期来看也不算高，而是低。石油曾经可是100美元一桶的。那至于未来石油价格将会如何走，很大程度上就需要看这疫情何时能控制住。大家肯定觉得这是废话，为什么呢？不仅仅是疫情控制住以后像英国，法国这些在封锁的国家汽车使用量会增加，更重要的一点是，疫情控制住，或者大部分国家打完疫苗之后，各国政府都将会开始各种政策来恢复经济，主要来说就是大兴土木，大力基建等等。这对于生产资料的需求将会在相当长一段时间内持续保持高需求。因此我个人认为，一旦主要国家的疫情得到控制，那石油价格将会继续保持在稳定上涨的趋势里。

图形分析

美国石油：正如下面图形显示一样，石油价格在过去5年里从100美元下跌到负数（只存在几个小时），又从负数上涨到现在的50美元，简直是弹弹球啊。但是我们需要知道，对于未来，我们知道的是2021年疫情依然凶猛，经济依然疲软，还需要靠央行放水，政策续命，所以大量货币增发所导致的资产泡沫膨胀，势必会影响到各个产品。一句话，我觉得2021年，疫情这么凶猛，还没压下去，泡沫不能破，还得继续吹。就算要破，也不能今年破。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。

Mark Austin ( LinkedIn ) is the Co-Founder of Magnetic Trading, a trading coaching and services business. With experience across prime institutions such as The Royal Bank of Canada and EFG, Mark’s unique insights have helped many discover what it takes to trade with a principled approach. In this episode we covered: Life in Thailand How he got into trading Magnetic Trading Technical vs. fundamental Publishing results with transparency; and Trading principles & mindset - Transcript: Disclaimer: Go Markets is a derivatives broker and Jordan Michaelides is the managing director of Neuralle Media.

All opinions expressed by Jordan and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Go Markets, an AFSL license holder. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for financial decisions nor as an indication of future performance. Clients of go markets may hold positions in the derivatives mentioned.

A financial services guide and product disclosure statement for our products are available at the www.gomarkets.com website. Jordan Michaelides: In this episode we spoke with Mark Austin. Mark is the cofounder of Magnetic Trading, a trading, coaching and services business.

With experience across prime institution such as the Royal bank of Canada and EFG Capital, Mark's unique insights have helped many discover what it takes to trade with a principled approach. In this episode we covered life in Thailand, how he got into trading, Magnetic Trading and what it actually does, technical versus fundamental analysis, publishing results and transparency, and a course, trading principles and mindset. If you liked the episode, do leave a rating on your podcast app or share with your friends, post on your Instagram story tagging @gomarkets.

Show notes and all previous guests are available at www.gomarkets.com/podcast. With that being said, let's get into the episode. Mark, how are you?

Mark Austin: Great. At the moment I'm in Ko Samui and it’s a lovely day, looking forward to having a good conversation with you. Jordan Michaelides: Now, why move to Thailand, how did that come about?

Mark Austin: So from my earliest career I've always been in finance, and I got out of finance during the credit crisis back in 2008, 2009. I decided to leave the banking industry, I just viewed that I didn't want to be part of that industry anymore. I viewed, you know, pay was going to be reduced, bonuses were going to be reduced, and there was so much red tape coming into the banking institutions that I decided to leave.

At the time I was making as much money with my personal trading as I was actually working the bank, so the decision wasn't actually that difficult to make. I just took my laptop and my skillset and I headed off a to do a bit of traveling. The idea was actually to come down to Australia and maybe do some work down there.

I came to Ko Samui initially with a view of just spending a few months here. I was trading and I met a guy down there and he asked me what I was doing, and I said trading, that's how I'm making an income at the moment. He had a financial list and he wanted me to send my trades to him initially, and then his client list.

So I kind of ended up just slipping into this helping other clients make money on trading and with a lot of people following my trades purely by accident. I just fell into it really. I didn't really have any desire to go and do that.

I was just going to trade my own money. So that's how I ended up staying in Thailand. I set up that business and, you know, I travel a lot but Thailand is still my home, and has been for the last 10 years.

Jordan Michaelides: What do you think of the expat community there? There’s an area in particularly for Australians, I think, is it Chiang Mai? There are so many coworking spaces and tech companies there now, but, Ko Samui is also another one where you just hear of a lot of ex-pats linking up there.

How have you found it? Mark Austin: It has changed very rapidly over the last few years, actually. When I first came here there were a lot of Westerners, but actually the expat community has started to diminish.

I think that's because of the strong baht. Cost of living and the strong baht is not helping a lot of expats who are earning in their own currencies, be it the Pound, US dollar, or the AUD with the baht going up. So, we are seeing quite a few expats leave unfortunately at the moment.

Even if you look at the visitors coming into Thailand now from tourism it’s predominantly Chinese and Korean. A lot of Chinese tourists now visit Thailand. Jordan Michaelides: We have that here in Australia where, I think recently they just crossed over to the Chinese ex-pat in terms of, not in terms of visas yet, but, definitely tourism where they've overtaken the British.

The British were like the biggest bunch of tourists that we had. It's the old cliché, I work with so many people in finance and they come over and the first thing they do is they go work on these farms so they can stay in Australia a little bit longer. A couple of years later they wind up working in the finance industry because the weather is typically better than London, normally, if you're in somewhere like Sydney, the lifestyle is often better, now it's increasingly becoming more and more Chinese.

I think that will happen over time as their middle class grows as well. It's interesting that it's affecting, affecting there. I was in Vietnam a few years ago and noticed it seemed to be crossing over from mainly US and French tourists to large groups of Chinese tourists.

I guess it's just an overwhelming trend in the region. Mark Austin: Yeah, it's close as well, it's not too far away and as you said, the middle class is growing rapidly now so that they will have a lot more money. It's interesting, I find the Chinese stay more on the resorts, so, Thailand kind of feels quieter, but actually tourism is increasing here year by year, but it feels quieter because they tend to stay in the resorts or in their villas that they're renting instead of going out as much as the Westerners.

Jordan Michaelides: The analogy I've been thinking about recently is how in the of sixties and seventies you would have large groups of American tourists, tourists, that middle class was developing and they’d always go out in groups, now tour companies are the biggest beneficiary of tourism in Australia at the moment, particularly from that Chinese market because they come in groups of 20 or 40 and they come out as that group. I wonder over time though if their behaviors will become more like the Western tourists when it comes to the 90s where you get people just traveling on their own, and that'll be the key thing I think for tourism in Australia in particular. They're saying that tourism in the next 10 years could easily overtake mining.

I've got to ask, what do you miss the most from home? Mark Austin: Obviously I miss family and friends, they are the key drivers really. It's a struggle out here as well, I mean, I do speak some Thai but I'm by no means fluent.

Sometimes it's a struggle just to get by trying to deal in a foreign language, so it's nice to go back home, even if you're doing businesses, it's very easy getting something done back home. Things take five minutes whereas in Thailand it can take days. I don't miss the weather.

Summer’s in the UK are actually getting better, I went home in August for a month this year and that they had a great summer in the high 20s, probably as good as Australia really. Winters are a struggle, certainly they don't have the nicest winters, a lot of rain. I remember when I was working in the banks, you get up at six o'clock in the morning, you go to work in the dark and then you'd come home in the dark.

You don't see any daylight. Jordan Michaelides: Where did you grow up? Mark Austin: I was fortunate enough to grow up in Jersey.

Not New Jersey, whenever I say where I'm from people thing America, no, Jersey is in the Channel Islands, which are actually very near France. They are crown dependency, they use the pound there, very near France. Jordan Michaelides: Was your family local there or had your parents moved there for work?

I remember in my accounting job there were quite a few accounts that had worked in Jersey, accounting, banking, financial services in general. There's quite a large economy for that. Mark Austin: My father was actually in offshore finance, hence where we were.

I've literally grown up in offshore jurisdictions, so I'm used islands actually. Hence why I always spend some time in cities, but I'm always drawn back to the ocean. I do like to be close to the ocean.

Jordan Michaelides: Do you have any particular fond memories as a kid growing up? Mark Austin: My, my earliest memory as a child was in a place called Nauru. Given you’re Australian you would know Naura.

It's a very small Pacific Island, my father was based out there. I must live in around four, maybe four years old and I just remember the backyard and being on my bike there. I went to school there, or kindergarten, and I was the only white child there.

I can't remember the experiences there, but I remember my mother saying it was a little bit difficult for me there. Jordan Michaelides: Nauru is an interesting one. There's a funny relationship that Australia has with Narau.

Originally it was used for processing asylum seekers, but Nauru as an economy actually became very smart at acquiring land in Australia. Some of the largest REITs in Australia are predominantly owned by a sovereign wealth fund out of Nauru. There's all sorts, like Nauru house in Sydney is quite a massive building, quite an old buliding as well, The government's done pretty well.

Not many people know about it unless perhaps you're from Australia. Going back to your early career, you we're talking about waking up at 6:00am returning home at night, in the dark. Before we get to the GFC, I was fascinated by your career, you worked in the client services space for the Royal Bank Of Canada.

You worked at UBS, obviously you left it around 2008. What area did you typically work? Mark Austin: I started off with offshore tax planning, so trusts, and I moved into wealth management looking after very high net worth individuals.

I had a portfolio of clients in the middle East, predominantly Dubai at that time. Things were booming at that time and there was a lot of money and I think maybe you remember that property was, it was really hot at that time, but just before the crash and you know, people were making, you know 5% in a week on their properties even before it had been built. It was a huge bubble out there at the time which ultimately blew up.

That was another factor for me deciding to leave because not only was there was a financial crash, also the market that I was focusing on, in the Middle East, in Dubai, the property market just fell out, so a lot of people lost a lot of wealth who had invested in property there. Jordan Michaelides: And where you based out of London at the time when you're working with those clients in the middle East? Mark Austin: Yes, London and also Jersey, and I used to do a lot of business trips to Dubai.

Jordan Michaelides: And where did the trading come into it? For myself, before I even got into the industry, I was trading oil futures at university. Funnily enough I lost absolutely everything because, you know, you do when you think you know everything at the age of 19, and it was a very, very valuable lesson, but it's got me thinking about where your first entry into the world of trading.

Mark Austin: I got into it very early as well, also while at university at 20, 21 years old. My mother used to trade stocks, well known stock. She used to buy BHP Billiton and some of the big mining companies and she used to make really good money on it.

One day she said do you want to come in on this and learn it? I said why not? So as soon as I started to research this and I placed my first trade I was hooked, I wanted to just do that, really.

That's how I sort of fell into it and I was just obsessed with trading. I went into banking, but I was still always trading my own personal account. Jordan Michaelides: What did you learn from her mom in particular about trading?

Mark Austin: A lot of technical analysis at that time, that was the main factor I was using for my decisions to buy and sell stocks at the time. We'll talk about this later, but, technical analysis these days, it's one small component, I don't rely on that by any means now but back in those days it was just that, so it was kind of hit and miss. I think you'll agree it's actually better to get into trading before you've made any money.

I’ve known a lot of people that made a lot of money and then they come into the trading and they think it's really, really easy. They don't have any discipline and they end up losing a lot of money. I was like you, I lost small in the very early days while I was learning, which was good.

Jordan Michaelides: I definitely lost a small in comparison to what I would play with these days, I think I lost about four grand at the time, which for me was like all the money I'd saved and about a year or so, it was a very valuable lesson. The book I read after that was ‘What I learned Losing $1 million dollars, and you’re absolutely right about that point because this book is basically a profile of a guy who became a key member of the CME, or key trader at the CME, and how he had continued success and believed that the movement of the market and his ability to pick trades was really him and not just the market and got to a point where this guy was a multimillionaire and then in this space overnight, he'd lost absolutely everything. His marriage, house, it's one of the most fascinating books I've ever, ever read because this guy showcases that you have to have a system and a to be a trader.

You can't just go off status or previous successes. Mark Austin: That's the thing that we trading, it's not only a skillset of making money, but you really find out about yourself. All those weaknesses of your personality, you’re going to know straight away what they are; if you're not disciplined, or you don't like to lose, or if you're very competitive, it’s all going to be highlighted in a very painful way if you're losing a trade or losing money.

Jordan Michaelides: What horror stories have you got from the GFC? You moved into full time trading after that, we spoke to a previous guest, Tom, who works at go markets and he was talking about how he worked down the road from Lehman, and on the day that they went bankrupt, the chaos down at Canary Wharf was absolutely nuts. I guess I'm curious as to what that period was like from your perspective.

Mark Austin: Before we have the chaos, and we'll come back to that, I was right in the booming time. I was working actually in my very early twenties for a firm called Abacus, in Jersey. They managed the pension funds for the big traders, the big traders would get these bonuses and a lot of these traders were living in London, trading in London, but they were from different countries.

They would be able to put a very large proportion of this bonus money into these tax rapids and invest in them, and we were there to advise on which investments they should put it in. I was getting taken around and meeting some of the top traders in Canary Wharf at the time, and, in Lehman's predict particularly, so you have these guys who’ve just been paid 10 or 2 million dollars in bonuses, if you can imagine, and I remember at the time the guy who was the director I was going around with saying to me, you are never going to get access to this again in your life, never meet these top traders and the amount of money, you'd never been able to get near them. And he was right.

And, of course, five years later it all came out and it all crumbled. I remember the day Lehman's went down, the stock market, everyone, was just in panic. Nobody had ever seen anything like it.

But at the time it was also very exciting. Jordan Michaelides: Yes, if you're individual that can understand the markets and isn't overly exposed in certain asset classes or maybe you've got a nice pile of cash it was definitely an interesting time to be alive. I remember I'd just left high school and was super intrigued.

I remember I’d just got the sack from a hospitality job because the restaurant owner was paranoid that we were going to have a recession here and he wanted to pre-emptively make some measures, then lo and behold, nothing happened in Australia. We were so lucky, absolutely nothing happened. I mean, obviously the markets fell, but there was no recession.

We’ve not had a recession in 30 years, so I guess so locally that's what everyone's paranoid about at the moment. So, you left banking and financial services, you started trading on your own accord. We heard about moving to Thailand, how far from moving to Thailand did you meet Cameron?

Mark Austin: Cameron came to one of my seminars, actually. I was doing a seminar in London, I met Cameron and we just sort of hit it off and I really liked his ideas. He was from a business background, he used to run a multi-million pound distribution company supplying all the big supermarkets.

He got out of that for various reasons, a lot of stress, a lot of time, and he really focused on trading at that point in time. He came into my seminar to see if he could extract any more information to give him more of an edge in trading. At the time he was trading the American markets and I didn't really have any good contacts at that time of any traders that could successfully trade that markets, so we basically started a service for Cameron.

It was called Excelsior and that was trading the Dow Jones giving signals and on the Dow Jones. Jordan Michaelides: What have you learned working together with him? I'd say that any business is almost like a marriage these days.

Speaking from personal experience with the cofounder, what have you learned from working together? Mark Austin: It is like a marriage, yeah… a honeymoon period *laughs*. We were lucky enough that we get on well, we're pretty laid back and we're kind of aligned as to where we want to go.

Fortunately we just don't really disagree on too much or have any, you know, big arguments which a lot of business partners can do. Then they fall out which makes life very difficult. I think, from both sides, we were quite lucky to combine and I believe why we were quite successful with the Magnetic Trading.

We’ve both got the same focus of what we want to achieve. Jordan Michaelides: And I think as well, because you seem to both have unique skill sets, like yours is clearly coming from financial services where his is clearly from that business background. So you can see that if you guys get into an argument about XYZ topic, the person who's more passionate about it will obviously lead on that topic and you can just sort of move over it.

I think that's a key thing that a lot of co-founders is having someone that has an opposite skillset or complimentary skillset to you is crucial I think. Mark Austin: We do have very different skill sets, that's why it works so well, for sure. Jordan Michaelides: Now, magnetic trading, you guys run three programs now.

I know over the years it would have taken much time to develop these distinct programs in your mind. What were the early days like? Mark Austin: So the early days I used to just send an email out saying Buy, Sell, Target, that was it really, maybe with a little bit of analysis.

That was fine, but the problem with that is the reaction time, you'd have that time lag, so, someone would get an email, maybe they wouldn't have time to match the same entry as I was getting. That's why I moved into the live room where people can actually log in, see our trading screen and hear us, and they can react exactly the same time and we can give them a lot of information as to why we're taking the trade. I don't believe that someone should follow a trader blindly, I think they need to understand why they're taking a trade in the first place.

That's why the training room works so well. Jordan Michaelides: Did you start off with the trading room itself? I'm guessing you were still doing events on the side as well as that, right?

Mark Austin: The early days were just the emails and seminars in the background, maybe twice or three times a year. I think we've been doing the live room now for six years now. Six years ago we decided to transition from email alerts into a live training webinar, and it's far more successful and people can, can duplicate our results as well.

Jordan Michaelides: You now have three areas. You've got the live trading room, the whale trading program and the pro trader program. How do they differ, and what's the key thesis through structuring these three different areas?

Mark Austin In the live trading room we specialize predominantly for the first 30 minutes of the opening of the indicies. For those markets we trade the DAX and the FTSE which actually is pretty handy in Australia because it's in the early evening you guys. In the UK it can be tricky for some people because eight o'clock in the morning isn't the most convenient time in the UK, you might be going into work or you're taking the kids to school.

That's where people will just follow our trades, and those trades will be a mix of technical analysis, a bit of fundamental, and price action. We’ll trade for about 20 minutes really, when volatility is quite high. That's the live trading room.

Our whale trade, they are our nine highest probability trades over various index markets. For that program you don't need to log into a live room, an alert is pinged to your email and it says this particular trade is setting up. People know the rules, so they just log into the trading platform and then execute the trade.

Some of those trades have a 90% probability which is extremely high in trading. People really love that program and it's good if you're busy, we designed it as a lifestyle program, really. We believe that you shouldn't just be sat in front of the screens all day hunting for signals.

I think we'd all agree, there's more productive things to do in life than just stare at price action all day. That’s the basis of the whale program, for people that don't really have time for the live room and just want to be pinged two to three high probability trades a week get a really good return on them. Regarding the pro trader, that was set up because we noticed there was a void in the market for those clients that really wanted to take trading to full time, to become a professional trader.

I am against people that try and sell a program, a weekend course or a two day event and say, right, you can come here and then you'll have the skillsets become a trader. It doesn't work like that at all. So pro trader is really where clients work with us over the course of a full year.

Day in, day out, at least an hour to an hour and a half we will be touching base with our clients every day, teaching them or conversing in what we're going to do, or why we're taking a trade, and over the course of the year they basically learn everything that we know, they extract all the information we have taken out of the markets over the last combined 20 years, and we give it to them. That’s the way to learn, really. It's the old analogy that if you study for an hour a day over the course of the year, you'll become a master at that field.

And pro trader is exactly the same. That's why we set it up. Jordan Michaelides: It sort of seems like it's one on one coaching in a way, you're helping this person, keeping them accountable, that's the biggest thing.

It's almost like having a personal trainer, isn't it? Mark Austin: Yeah. It's someone looking over your shoulder.

We’ve had a lot of traders, bank traders, who have joined our program because they didn't have the discipline. Just knowing that someone is examining their accounts is quite important. Jordan Michaelides: From my own experience working on the market making side and managing liquidity, at the end of the day you've always got a boss and a boss will hold you accountable and it's very useful, even though everyone likes to whinge about their boss.

I find that whether you're a business owner, just having someone else there to hold you accountable and get you away from that sort of introspection illusion where you think that everything you see is correct and infallible. I think that that is really, really useful. Even if you're one of the top traders or bankers in London.

I love those sorts of programs because they really help with that. What sort of the overall asset classes that you're focusing on? It seems like it's primarily indicies?

Mark Austin: It is indicies, yes. It's the NASDAQ, your local ASX market, it’s the DAX, the FTSE, and we do a little bit of Dow as well. Not so much now, that market ist rickier to make consistent money out of because there's so many algorithms and institutional money manipulating that particular market, but yes, just the indices that we focus on.

I have traded Forex and commodities and shares in the past, but I found that I made consistent money more out of the indices than I did on other asset classes. I find it's a lot easier, more predictable. Jordan Michaelides: That's a key thing that we wanted to talk about, is technical versus fundamental.

With the indicies, at the end of the day you’re trading the underlying value of the businesses, so, there is an underlying value there. Whereas when I used to trade things like oil and gold, it's just an object that someone may use for something, but typically most of what it's used for in the real world is it's hedging out an exposure of some client, whereas in indicies there's actually something there. In some indicies as well, let's say you hold like a Vanguard of the world, they're actually paying out dividends.

I think it makes a lot more sense for whole bunch of reasons. I'm curious as to where you sit on technical versus fundamental analysis. Mark Austin Just coming back to the indices though, you're right, there are many reasons to trade the indices and A is because of the risk.

You know, if you're just trading one stock, you have the risk exposure to something going wrong with that stock. Whereas at least with the indices, you're trading a basket and really spreading that risk. But in terms of technical and fundamental analysis we actually have a third prong.

A lot of people, the mainstream media focuses on just those two areas. At magnetic, we focus on something called market function. Market function is actually the reasons why particular trades or particular movements in the market happen behind the scenes, what is going on behind the scenes with the banks and investors to make a market move outside of technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

If you take the example of the dividend you just talked about, the FTSE for example, will declare that a substantial dividend quite a few times a year. If you bought the index, you will be rewarded with that, you'll get paid that dividend. When there's a dividend of over 10, generally we'll get our clients long in the market.

There was a particular time in the day that we know the market is going to go up because investors are going to come into the market and get that dividend. We're literally taking advantage of that, and that's got nothing to do with technical analysis, nothing to do with fundamentals is just market function. I think a lot of people these days are focusing too much on fundamental and technical and really a retail trader does need that additional edge, which I believe is market function.

Jordan Michaelides: It sounds almost like market function is talking around structural issues in that specific market and things that may feed into that, whether it's interest rates or dividends or something like that, would that be right? Mark Austin: Yeah, and just the way funds operate. For example, we have another trade, it happens at the end of the quarter, so at the end of the quarter a lot of farmers will get rid of bad performing stocks or they'll take profits on their portfolio of stocks, so, you'll notice that there will be some profit taking and sometimes there'll be a squeeze as well at the end of the end of the session.

And again, we're just taking advantage of that because we know that the funds are going to get involved during the last half an hour of that session at the end of the quarter. Again, that’s nothing to do with technical analysis and nothing to do with fundamental. Jordan Michaelides: I completely agree, and it's a really interesting area because having moved into the cryptocurrency space now, the advent of futures for hedging your book and whatnot, and you can start to see it now in the movements of the market, when actual contracts are rolling over it can impact the market for that day and for that rollover period.

It's been very interesting. I’d just never thought about market function as a part of a key way of analyzing the market. You assume that's just the market and that's how Mr Market likes to move.

Mark Austin: That's what the whale program is all about, it's all about market function. It's got no fundamental or no technical analysis embedded in those trades. Actually, we do have an expiry trade as well, you just talked about futures rolling over.

When they roll over the markets will do something which we take advantage of. Every month at a set time for five minutes. And again, that's a trade which has a 90% hit rate.

Jordan Michaelides: Yeah, that high probability hit rate. You publish your results as well, which I found fascinating, it's great to see that. It's so rare to see someone who runs a program do that.

I don't think I've ever seen that before, what made you come to that decision? Jordan Michaelides: In the early days there weren’t too many scams around, but, unfortunately these days the internet is littered with people trying to sell programs or educational courses and the sad reality is a lot of these programs are run by failed traders or people that don't even trade; they're just marketers, so we really wanted to move into the space of complete transparency and real. We are real traders, so it's just how to get people to believe our results because that's a problem.

We have really good results but people who don't know us come and see these results and think, oh, that mustto be a scam. That's why we publish our results, and actually, going forward we’re going do a video log YouTube channel where every single trade we take on our own personal account, we're going to record, put it on YouTube, the good, the bad and the ugly. So people have complete transparency and you know we are real.

Jordan Michaelides: That would be fascinating. I was checking out your YouTube channel the other day and I quite enjoyed watching through it. To watch a vlog would be fascinating, even if it was on a weekly basis, it wouldn't have to be daily has a lot of logs are, but to see that on a weekly basis and the before and afters would be quite interesting I think.

That's what's great about the results, there are some days that are negative, some days that are positive. My favourite traders that I follow on Twitter nowadays do the same thing. They publish their results, they keep themselves socially accountable, which I think is the best way to do it.

When you think about trading plans, managing risk, I think that's sort of a key element of any strategy. How do you think about those overall principles in the way you approach trading? Mark Austin: Certainly the main principles we find with our successful pro traders are A: don't run losses.

The problem with the markets is they can move in a very tight range and a lot of time you can get away with not using a stop, but it's just that one time, that one time, I'm sure you've been there, I've been there certainly in the early days, that you don't have a stop. The market just takes off and you end up blowing your accounts. So number one principle, we all know it is never run losses, accept you're wrong.

The second principle is patience, be really patient for those easy trades because they're always there. Let the market come to you. A lot of people chase the market, they're trying to get instant results and they want instant money, we live in this world of instant gratification these days and everything happens so quickly.

But in trading, it's quite the opposite. If you're really patient, the money will come to you. I think the other thing for risk as well is, record all your trades because if you record all your trades, you can look back at your trading journal and say, right, this is working, this isn't working, and you also have some stats.

You'll be able to say this trade has an 80% chance of winning, I've been trading it and it works 80% of the time, that will give you a lot of confidence in your trading and that confidence is extremely important when placing trades. Jordan Michaelides: You touched on something there, instant gratification. I think practicing delayed gratification is becoming more and more important.

How do you manage your mindset, I guess you’re probably the generation just above me, gen X, so you wouldn't have grown up as much with these stupid phones and their addictive behaviour, but nonetheless, I'm sure you would find it just as addictive as I can at times. How do you think about that and how do you manage scanning over social media, looking at screens all day long and the like. Mark Austin: As you said it is, phones are addictive because.

It’s like your emails, you know, there'll be the odd chance that you'll get something that comes in, which is great, but then you'll have a load of issues that come in but you get addicted to those emails which are giving you positive rewards, and again it's linked to feelings. I just try and manage myself, but I do slip sometimes, it is too easy too to just keep looking at your phone. I saw some stats recently, I can’t remember exactly what they were but it was about how many times people look at their phone, it could be something like 400 times a day, something crazy!

Jordan Michaelides: I've been trying this a attention diet of late, where I’m only allowed to check my emails at certain times of the day unless it's relevant to a meeting or podcasts that we have coming up. Also social media, I've switched to documenting as opposed to believing that I'm there for consuming, I can only go on it four times a day. You'd be surprised how hard that is to instil.

It's that system one system two thinking, automatically we've become attuned with system one where we just jump on your phone, you'd know where the app for Instagram is and you jump into that. If you actually move it around into random folders that you can't remember, you actually then start to notice how much you're just going on your phone and wanting to click into stuff. I can see in a couple of years from now that you guys could have a program just specific to mindset, because I think more and more that stuff is becoming important.

For sure. Mark Austin: We already have it actually. We have a trading coach within our Pro Trading program, he specifically focuses on mindset and psychology because you right, it's 80, 20.

Everything in life is 80% psychology and mindset. And then the other 20% is your tools, your strategies. It is vitally important to your mindset.

I've always found the 1% rule fascinating, I’m almost obsessed with it. Why do 1% people excel over everything? I'm sure we've already heard about, you know, it's the top 1% of traders that make all the money, but then actually the 1% rule applies to everything.

You go into in the banks, it's the top 1% in the best jobs, getting them the best money. If you go into the world of sports, it's the top 1% excelling and at the top, whereas 99% of sports people are struggling. And again, for me, that is all because of this psychology and mindset.

Jordan Michaelides: I think the Pareto principle is always working. I remember reading recently someone had proven in biology how it exists or why it exists. I'm going to have to go back and find that.

I completely agree, it's always the top individuals that behave in a certain way and this is why I love profiling people around this sort of stuff. What does the future look for you guys, what does Magnetic Trading have planned for the next few years? Mark Austin: I'm really excited that we're starting this video blog where we are going to record every single trade that we do for our own trading account.

I think that will give people a lot of confidence that it can be done, there's always a lot of haters now on the internet saying that you can't make money in trading and that's not case. I'm quite excited just to show everyone that it can be done, and a lot of our clients have a lot of success now, we're changing lives. I went to a Tony Robins event recently actually, I've always, always been a great fan of him, he was saying that once you've made in money and you you've got your goals, what is actually going to give you fulfillment?

I know it sounds a bit cliche, but it's giving back, it really is giving back. We just really want to build our success stories, change lives and give back to the community. Jordan Michaelides: I think he's definitely right about that.

When you achieve around that $70,000 to $100,000 a year mark, not much else is going to give you fulfillment and all that's going to happen is you're going to build lifestyle inflation into your life. I think helping people is really where you get the greatest fulfillment. No doubt about that.

Mark Austin: 100%, I'm totally in agreement with that. Jordan Michaelides: Now, we're going to get into some rapid fire questions to finish off. First, what does your morning routine look like?

Mark Austin: Morning routine… Well, if I am in Ko Samui I will wake up, I will generally have a green drink, detoxify the body, go for a swim, do a bit of a workout. That wakes me up. I’m into health as well, I believe that you’ve got to start from the inside and that helps the mindset as well.

Certainly that morning swing really helps. If I'm in the city, my morning routine isn't as good generally as I'm rushing around, but I'll try and squeeze in a quick workout in the morning. Jordan Michaelides: And in the evening, how do you sort of decompress at night?

Mark Austin: The usual really. Chilling out with friends, go for dinner, movies, have a few glasses of wine. Jordan Michaelides: If you had to give the book to the audience for Christmas coming up, what would the book be and why?

Mark Austin: For trading it would definitely be trading in the zone by Mark Douglas, talking about the mindset. I would also highly recommend the Tony Robbins' books. He’s got Money: Master The Game… Jordan Michaelides: Awaken The Giant… Mark Austin: Unshakeable.

Money: Master The Game is a really good one. It gives you the strategies for growing your wealth and highlights why the majority are struggling to grow their wealth out there, the things to put in place, and highlights a lot of myths as well from the investing world. So that's a really good one.

Jordan Michaelides: I think if people are stuck on where they are going in life, Awaken The Giant Within in a brilliant book as well. Last question for you, what's been the best purchase for you under $200? Mark Austin: Again, it’s going to have to be a Tony Robbins course.

I find that it's given me to so much inspiration and helped me through throughout the last 10 years. Jordan Michaelides: Did you originally buy one of his tapes when they first came out? Mark Austin: It would have been an audio but it was downloadable.

It wasn't all early as cassettes. It was books and then audio. Jordan Michaelides: Everyone always talks about the cassette tapes, the CDs, the audio programs in general.

It’s a very common thing amongst people who've achieved something in their life is they all reference at an early age finding Tony Robbins or the ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ guy, that they obviously grew out of it as time went on but that opened their mind a bit. I guess that's what those guys do so well, is that they put it in lay terms and they make it quite simple. Right.

Thank you so much, Mark, for joining. Mark Austin: It’s been a pleasure. Jordan Michaelides: It's been very interesting.

For those listening, where can they find you? Mark Austin: They can search for the Magnetic Trading website, they can sign up to our newsletters and they can follow us on social media. Certainly check out the YouTube videos we’re going to start with our funds and trading accounts, displaying all our trades.

Jordan Michaelides: Mark, thanks so much for joining

Chris Tate is an Author, Trading Mentor, Co-Founder of (Trading Game), and Founder of Talking Trading. With a penchant for applying the scientific method to most elements of life, Chris (along with his co-founder Louise) is one of the longest standing mentors in the trading business – weathering all the fads that have passed through the industry. And don’t forget to pick up your free trading plan template from Chris’s website – tradinggame.com.au.

It will help you trade like a professional, and give you the focus you need to excel in the markets. In this episode we covered: Averages, statistics & people Technical analysis, simplicity & complexity Delaying gratification & FOMO How he got into trading Working with Louise Bedford; and Managing downsides

Louise Bedford is an Author, Trading Mentor, Co-Founder of ( Trading Game ), and Founder of Talking Trading. With a penchant for psychology and mindset, Louise is one of the longest standing mentors in the trading business – weathering all the fads that have passed through the industry. In this episode we covered: What Talking Trading and Trading Game are Deprogramming yourself and Imposter Syndrome Dealing with people’s presumptions How she began teaching Positive mindset and dealing with negativity