市场资讯及洞察

2025年,拉丁美洲(LATAM)的加密货币交易量超过7300亿美元,同比增长60%,这使该地区约占全球加密活动的10%。
2026年,机构参与者开始认真对待该地区,监管正在具体化,2025年以来的结构性驱动因素没有减弱的迹象。但是该地区不是一个单一的故事,2026年将考验当前的势头是建立在坚实的基本面还是投机乐观情绪之上。
事实速览
- 拉丁美洲每月活跃的加密用户同比增长18%,是美国的三倍。
- 阿根廷的月活跃用户渗透率达到12%,占该地区加密活动的四分之一以上。
- 现在,超过90%的巴西加密货币流量与稳定币有关。
- 三个拉美国家进入全球前20名:巴西(第5位)、委内瑞拉(第18位)、阿根廷(第20位)。
- 秘鲁的加密应用程序下载量在2025年增长了50%,下载量为290万次。

从生存工具到金融基础设施
由于投机,拉丁美洲没有接受加密货币。它之所以接受它,是因为传统的金融体系一再让普通百姓失望。在过去的15年中,该地区五个最大经济体的平均年通货膨胀率为13%,而同期美国的平均年通货膨胀率仅为2.3%。
在委内瑞拉,这一比例在一年内达到了65,000%。在阿根廷,这一比例在2024年超过了220%。对于数百万人来说,以当地货币持有储蓄是一种缓慢的自我毁灭行为。稳定币成为了自然的反应。与美元挂钩的数字资产提供了可靠的价值储存、无国界的转移性以及无需银行账户即可访问。
与西方不同,在西方,加密货币更多地被视为一种投机工具,而在拉丁美洲,它已成为一种必要的金融工具。但是,该地区的采用驱动因素并不完全统一。巴西和墨西哥是机构故事,受监管的市场参与和成熟的金融参与者的推动。
阿根廷和委内瑞拉仍然是保值游戏,加密货币是抵御法币崩盘的直接对冲工具。秘鲁和哥伦比亚是更追求收益的市场,加密货币提供的回报是传统储蓄账户无法比拟的。

拉美采用加密货币的速度有多快?
2025年,拉美的链上加密货币交易量同比增长了60%。自2022年年中以来,该地区的累计交易量已达到近1.5万亿美元,在2024年12月达到创纪录的单月877亿美元的峰值。
2025年,拉丁美洲的月活跃加密用户也增长了18%,是美国的三倍。
稳定币是推动这种采用的主要工具。在2025年收到的7,300亿美元中,有3,240亿美元是通过稳定币交易转移的,同比增长89%。在巴西,超过90%的加密货币流量与稳定币相关,而在阿根廷,稳定币占活动的60%以上。
展望未来,根据IMARC集团的数据,到2033年,拉丁美洲的加密货币市场预计将达到4426亿美元,从2025年起将以10.93%的复合年增长率增长。
对于交易者而言,采用速度与其说是头条新闻,不如说是推动采用速度的原因:该地区有6.5亿人以稳定币为基础,实时建设平行金融基础设施。
机构转向
在拉美的大部分加密历史中,采用率是自下而上的。没有银行账户或银行账户不足的零售用户通过本地交易所推动了交易量。现在,高端市场的这种情况正在发生变化。
2026年2月,全球领先交易所运营商德意志交易所集团旗下的Crypto Finance集团宣布向拉丁美洲扩张,目标是寻求机构级托管和交易基础设施的银行、资产管理公司和金融中介机构。
传统银行和金融科技公司纷纷效仿。Nubank现在奖励持有USDC的客户。巴西的B3交易所于2025年批准了世界上第一只现货XRP和SOL ETF,领先于美国。自2024年初以来,包括梅尔卡多比特币、NovaDAX和币安在内的中心化交易所共上市了200多个新的以巴西雷亚尔计价的交易对。
2025年3月,巴西金融科技公司Meliuz成为该国第一家推出比特币增持策略的上市公司,目前持有320比特币。
“拉丁美洲已经在全球范围内采用加密货币。市场现在需要的是机构级治理,这正是我们来到这里的原因,” ——加密金融集团首席执行官Stijn Vander Straeten
加密汇款用例
拉丁美洲每年从海外工人那里获得数千亿美元,这使汇款成为该地区最具体、最可衡量的加密用例之一。传统的转账服务平均每笔交易收取6.2%的费用。对于300美元的转账,大约相当于20美元的费用。
基于区块链的基础设施可以更广泛地降低费用。比特币使每转账100美元的成本约为3.12美元。而像XRP或以太坊第二层基础设施这样更便宜的替代方案可以将其降低到0.01美元以下。
对于向秘鲁汇款1,500美元的移民工人来说,仅从传统银行转账就能节省的费用超过秘鲁每周平均工资。
LATAM 的加密监管环境
最能决定LATAM是否发挥其2026年潜力的变量是加密监管。在这里,情况确实好坏参半。
巴西的《虚拟资产法》在该地区处于领先地位,该法涵盖资产隔离、VASP 许可、AML/KYC 要求和资本标准。它还实施了国内 VASP 转账旅行规则,该规则于 2026 年 2 月生效。但是,一些更具争议的提案,包括对跨境稳定币交易设定10万美元的上限以及禁止自托管钱包转账,仍在积极磋商中。
墨西哥的2018年金融科技法仍然是世界上最早正式承认虚拟资产的法规之一。智利的2023年金融科技法为交易所、钱包和稳定币发行人设立了许可证,正式承认数字资产为 “数字货币”。
玻利维亚于2024年6月批准了受监管的数字资产交易,撤销了长达十年的加密禁令。阿根廷于2025年引入了强制性交易所登记。尽管取消了比特币的法定货币地位,但萨尔瓦多仍在继续扩大代币化经济举措。
该地区的十个国家现在拥有某种正式的加密框架。但是对于交易者来说,监管分歧仍然是一种现实风险,鉴于巴西获得的拉美加密货币交易量占拉美所有加密货币交易量的近三分之一,任何重大的政策逆转都可能产生巨大的后果。

交易者应该注意什么
巴西的制度势头是最重要的结构性趋势。到2025年,巴西的链上交易量为3188亿美元,实际上是拉丁美洲市场。
巴西稳定币磋商的结果可能会产生很大的影响。限制在国内支付中使用外国稳定币将直接影响该地区主导市场中交易量最大的资产类别。
阿根廷是波动率的玩家。2025年,月活跃用户渗透率为12%,加密应用程序下载量为540万次,这表明零售参与度不断提高。
哥伦比亚是一个值得关注的预警市场。2025年比索贬值5.3%,财政危机的加深正在推动稳定币流入,其模式反映了阿根廷早年的发展轨迹。如果哥伦比亚的宏观形势进一步恶化,加密货币的采用可能会加速。
交易所集中风险也在起作用。币安加密货币交易所是超过50%的拉丁美洲加密用户的主要交易所。如果交易所面临任何监管行动、运营中断或竞争冲击,可能会对市场产生巨大的影响。
底线
拉丁美洲的加密市场进入了一个新阶段。导致该地区最初出现加密需求的结构性驱动因素尚未消失:通货膨胀、汇款、金融排斥和货币不稳定都仍在起作用。
所发生的变化是建立在它们之上的图层。机构基础设施、监管框架、企业资金的采用以及流入直到最近还基本自给自足的地区的全球交易所资本。
巴西在2025年将近-250%的交易量增长及其占拉美所有加密货币的近三分之一的地位是决定性的市场发展。其监管轨迹、稳定币政策决策和ETF渠道将有效地为该地区在2026年定下基调。
对于交易者而言,总体增长数据是真实的,但其背后的集中风险、监管不确定性以及国家层面的分歧也是真实的。


在金融市场中,套利是一种通过利用相关资产之间价格差异获取低风险收益的常见策略。无论是跨期套利、跨品种套利,还是不同市场之间的价差交易,核心都在于对价差走势的准确监控与及时响应。传统上,交易者往往需要借助第三方工具来计算和分析这些价差数据,不仅流程繁琐,还难以及时反映市场变化。MT5平台针对这一需求,提供了自定义品种这一功能,极大地提升了套利交易的便利性。用户可以通过简单的数学公式,将任意已有品种组合成一个全新的衍生品种。例如,可以通过多个货币对构建美元指数,也可以计算不同期货合约之间的跨期价差,或是两种相关资产之间的价差关系。更重要的是,MT5能够将这些自定义品种生成标准的K线图,完整展示历史走势,让套利机会一目了然,便于技术分析与策略回测。为了更直观地了解MT5自定义品种功能的实际应用,本文将以布伦特原油(Brent)与WTI原油(West Texas Intermediate)之间的价差为例,演示如何在平台中创建一个用于套利分析的衍生品种。在能源市场中,布伦特与WTI作为全球最具代表性的两大原油基准,其价格波动常因地缘政治、运输成本、库存水平等多重因素而产生差异。这个差异,也就是所谓的价差,恰恰是套利交易者关注的焦点。接下来的内容将从如何选取交易品种、设定价差计算公式、创建新品种,到将其添加到K线图中进行观察与分析,逐步展示整个操作流程。通过这个实例,你将能清楚了解如何在MT5中高效构建属于自己的套利视图,提升策略执行的准确性与时效性。首先,打开MT5软件并登录对应的交易账户,此处我们以登录GO Markets的模拟账户为例。在界面上方的菜单栏中,点击“查看”选项,然后选择“交易品种”。

在弹出的窗口中,点击下方的“创建自定义交易品种”按钮。

接下来会打开一个新窗口,需要完成四项基本设置:
- 交易品种名称:为自定义品种命名,例如可输入 Crude Oil Spread,用于表示布伦特原油与WTI原油之间的价差。
- 合成工具公式:输入计算价差的公式,即布伦特原油减去WTI原油的代码(具体代码可根据平台定义填写,在GO Markets账户中对应的代码分别为UKOUSD和USOUSD)。
- 允许价格为负:建议勾选此项为是,以防价差为负的情况被误判为无效。
- 计算方式:在计算盈亏所用资产类型中选择期货,因为两个原油基准品种均为期货合约,其价差自然也属于期货范畴。

将以上四个选项全部修改后,结果如下:

完成以上设置后,即可点击确定并创建该自定义品种,进入下一步图表查看与分析操作。在“市场报价”窗口中,我们可以找到刚刚添加的自定义品种Crude Oil Spread。右键点击该品种,选择“图表窗口”,即可打开对应的K线图,结果如下所示:

从图表中可以看出,大多数情况下布伦特原油价格略高于WTI原油,目前二者的价差大约在3美元左右。我们可以进一步计算其历史平均水平,当价差显著高于或低于这一均值时,可考虑做空价差收敛或做多价差扩张,从而捕捉潜在套利机会。本文以原油价差为例,演示了MT5平台自定义品种功能的操作流程与实际应用价值。通过灵活设置计算公式并生成图表,投资者可以直观分析跨期或跨品种的价差走势。这一功能不仅适合套利策略的构建,也支持更复杂的分析与量化研究,是提升交易效率的有力工具。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部


随着澳洲小长假结束,全球金融市场在消息密集的推动下快速切换节奏。美股周一保持稳健,标普微涨守住六千点关口,纳指上涨0.31%,道指几近持平,整体延续震荡中趋稳的格局。尽管本周CPI与PPI数据预期偏高,但年通胀预期意外大幅回落,缓解了市场对通胀持续上行的担忧,也令市场对关税政策的敏感度明显降低。美国与中国间的关税谈判已重启,市场仍在等待实质性结果出台。与此同时,美参议院本周将推进税改法案修订,叠加新一轮的“全民投资计划”——为新生儿设立股票账户、政府配资启动,显示出刺激资本市场的意图。美元指数温和走弱,金价围绕3300美元震荡,恐慌指数继续下行,油价则因中东局势再度走强。科技领域,苹果WWDC25大会正式召开,尽管未能刺激股价上涨,但全平台视觉优化与AI能力整合成为关注焦点。AI板块继续火热,英伟达概念股全线走强,CRWV、NVTS双双大涨,医疗AI与大数据股如PLTR、TEM亦有不俗表现。核能板块全线提振,CCJ再创历史新高,澳洲相关个股有望受益跟涨。此外,美国稀土类股因出口政策变化全面反弹,数字货币方面,比特币重回11万美元大关,受益于机构持续加码及稳定币热潮,相关概念股如MSTR与Circle维持强势。美股股指期货早盘表现平稳,汇市则受美元温和震荡影响,整体波动有限。投资者关注要点:本周通胀数据影响市场情绪关键节点;AI与核电等结构性机会持续释放;美股短期维持震荡偏强格局,黄金与加密资产具备阶段性避险价值;税改法案与中美贸易消息仍是中期风险变量。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师


Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is a powerful psychological force that can completely derail your trading potential. It can alter meticulously planned trading decisions, right at the time you’re meant to execute.Having spent many years as a trading coach, FOMO is something I have seen far too often. It masquerades as an urgency to be “in the market” or a stated belief by traders claiming to “feel the market.” Unless you take a step back and honestly evaluate your market behaviour, FOMO can drive you into poorly-timed entries, premature exits, and revenge trades that send your account balance into an ever-decreasing spiral.
What Is FOMO in Trading?
FOMO is the emotional pressure that arises from the belief that you are about to miss out on a profitable opportunity. It is the belief that valid opportunities are few and far between, and if you miss out, it matters.This leads traders to ignore their rigorously tested strategies in favour of emotional reactions. The result is that their trades lack any sort of edge, are poorly timed, and carry too much risk.Many traders report feelings of regret, anxiety, and even shame after making FOMO trades. Over time, this can erode self-confidence and lead to even more impulsive behaviour, creating a negative feedback loop and compounding losses.
Why Does FOMO Happen?
Humans are hard-wired to follow the crowd. When you see traders posting big wins or hear about others catching great trades, your brain sees their success and equates this with missed opportunity.This social comparison triggers an immediate emotional response that can override rational decision-making. People never post their losses or the full context behind their winning trades, so you are only seeing a carefully curated highlight reel that creates a distorted view of success.Recency bias is another major factor in FOMO trading. The tendency to place too much importance on recent events, for instance, if a setup worked extremely well yesterday, you may irrationally believe it will work again today, even if conditions have changed.Recency bias and a scarcity mindset also fuel FOMO trading by making us overvalue recent wins and fear missed opportunities. When yesterday's setup delivered profits, we chase similar patterns today, regardless of changed market conditions. And the belief that profitable setups are rare leads to "itchy trigger finger syndrome" — forced entries driven by the fear that this moment might be our only chance.
How FOMO Shows Up in Trading
Chasing Breakouts
Seeing a strong price move and entering deep into a move (often near the top) is common FOMO behaviour. The trader convinces themselves that it’s better to get in late than miss out entirely, rather than simply accepting to leave it and wait for the next set-up opportunity. This mindset often leads to buying into exhaustion, right before the market reverses.
Overleveraging
The feeling of needing to "make up" for missed trades can cause traders to increase position size on the subsequent trades. While this may lead to larger gains on rare occasions, the fact that the mind is in this “revenge” state can lead to increased use of leverage and worse decision-making, significantly increasing the risk of major losses.
Ignoring Plans
When emotion takes over, traders often abandon their entry criteria, position sizing rules, trade confirmation filters and exit management. The result is a strategy that lacks consistency or any statistical edge from careful creation and evaluation over time of that plan.
Impulse News Trading
Another form of FOMO is jumping into trades during high-impact news events without a planned strategy. The fear of missing out on this visibly happening, large and fast move overrides the caution needed to trade volatile conditions.
Ignoring Take-Profit Targets
Even with predefined profit levels, traders may stay in trades longer, thinking the move potentially “has more legs”. This results in giving back unrealised gains, as rather than pushing further in your desired direction, it reverses and moves back from where it came.
Cancelling Trailing Stops
Traders second-guess trailing stops and move them further away, afraid of being stopped out too soon due to perceived market noise. This leads to worse exits than you may have had should you have left your trail stop as it was.
Holding Through Clear Reversal Signs
Emotional attachment to profit potential causes traders to ignore signals that a trend is reversing, hoping the price will resume its direction. Traders may convince themselves this is merely a retracement, ignoring other signs that a reversal is in progress, e.g. increased volume.
Skipping Partial Closes
FOMO can cause traders to avoid scaling out again despite the pre-trade plan of taking some of the table at specified points. This greed-based decision often results in missing the chance to lock in solid profits. We recently posted an article on mastering partial close that dives deeper into the topic.
How to Manage FOMO
The starting point of managing any psychological challenge in your trading, including FOMO, is to take ownership of it. This means acknowledging that FOMO is your responsibility. Accepting that FOMO impulses originate from within and are entirely under your control is the first step to moving from a reactive approach to a strategic one.Once you’ve come to terms with this, there are several structural and psychological tools and tactics you can employ to avoid future FOMO decisions:
- Realign with your Trading Plans: Every trade should have a specific setup, entry condition, risk limit, and exit plan. Relying on predefined rules helps remove emotional interference. Do a comparison of results when your plan was followed versus when it was not. The chance is that the difference will be obvious and add to the belief that your plan is what you MUST execute under all circumstances
- Controlled Position Sizing: Set out-of-trade limits and always adhere to them when tempted to take any trade. Know that you can ultimately scale, but only on a history of positive outcomes and in a measured way.
- Strategies to trade multiple market conditions: Missing out on a trade will seem less acute if you have a strategy to trade a breakout. Knowing you can bank profit now and simply re-enter a new trade when a break is confirmed is logically preferable to a cross your fingers approach.
- Scaling Out Plans: Having a structured scale-out process helps lock in gains and reduces the temptation to hold everything. Use previous trades and do a “what-if” analysis on a partial close to help build the conviction.
- Increase Journaling: Document details about your trades, including why you took them and how you felt before, during, and after. Pay attention to trades driven by urgency or impulse.
- 10-Second Rule: When you feel the urge to take or alter a trade, pause for ten seconds. Ask yourself: “Is this aligned with my plan or driven by FOMO?”
- Pre-Market Routines: Build routines to get into a focused, rational state before trading begins. Again, we recently published an article on pre-market preparation that may be worth a look.
SummaryFOMO may be a regular part of the human condition, but in trading, it can become one of the most dangerous emotional pitfalls. Without vigilance, it can creep into your trading without you realising. You do not need to catch every trade to be successful, another opportunity will be along soon. You should trade with consistency, discipline, and clarity. Mastering FOMO is not about removing emotion, but having the confidence to follow your strategy, not your fear.


背景2025年5月,美国参议院通过了《GENIUS法案》,标志着美国在稳定币监管方面迈出了关键一步。法案核心内容包括所有受监管的美元稳定币必须以现金、受保银行存款或短期美国国债形式全额储备支持。受美国监管的稳定币中市值最大是USDC,其发行公司Circle在昨晚完成上市,股价被定在31,上市首日即暴涨超168%。何为稳定币?稳定币就是一种“不会乱涨乱跌的数字货币”,它的价格通常固定在1美元左右,让你在使用比特币、以太坊这些“跳来跳去”的币时,有一个稳定的“中转站”或“数字现金”。举个例子,你在币圈里炒币,手里有比特币,就像你手里拿着“股票”,涨涨跌跌。但你不想冒险了,就把币换成稳定币,这就像你把股票变成现金装回钱包里,不会再跌。稳定币市场份额截至目前,稳定币市场总市值已超过2,460亿美元,占整个加密货币市场的约7.5%。其中USDT市场份额61.2%,作为最早的稳定币,在全球范围内被广泛接受,尤其在亚洲市场。USDC市场份额24.8%,在美国监管下运营,透明度高,受到机构投资者的青睐。DAI市场份额3.2%,是去中心化的稳定币,主要通过加密资产超额抵押生成。增长趋势:2025年初至今,稳定币市场增长了近170亿美元,显示出持续的增长势头。USDC增长迅速,市场份额不断增加,正在缩小与稳定币一哥USDT的差距。下面我们介绍其发行公司——Circle。认识CircleCircle成立于2013年,总部位于美国波士顿。最广为人知的产品就是USDC。商业模式:收入结构:高度依赖储备利息收入(99%),2024年总收入16.76亿美元成本结构:与Coinbase的分成协议导致分销成本占储备收入61%盈利表现:2024年净利润1.56亿美元,首次连续两年盈利Circle的护城河:Circle 发行的 USDC 是全球第二大美元稳定币被很多企业和机构信任。就像你出国旅游,用的不是某小国的代币,而是“正经美元”。Circle 让你在区块链上拿的是“正牌数字美元”。Circle 将USDC的储备大部分放在现金和短期美债中,由美国最大资产管理公司 BlackRock(贝莱德)协助管理。Circle的广告词就是“贝莱德帮我管钱,美国政府看着办事”。Circle 是少数能直接参与美国稳定币立法听证会、与国会和财政部沟通的加密企业。在别人还翻围墙找银行开户的时候,Circle 已经在国会喝咖啡和参议员聊政策了。可见Circle的护城河坚固无比,其不是一个普通的加密货币公司,而是全球数字金融基础设施的建设者。它通过USDC为全球提供可信、可审计、可编程的数字美元,让区块链不再只是炒币的工具,而是一个可以承载商业、支付与信用的全球金融网络。总结虽然USDC目前仍是稳定币老二,但是老大USDT不受政府官方承认,USDC凭借“贝莱德帮我管钱,美政府看着做事,国会喝咖啡”的优势正在飞速赶超一哥。尽管上市首日已暴涨168%,在USDC赶超一哥的过程中,Circle市值也将节节攀升,不出政策性意外公司前景还是稳定向好的。需要注意的是Circle的护城河是政府赋予的,股价可能受稳定币法案的变动而波动。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部


6月初公布的美国“小非农”数据令人意外:5月ADP就业人数仅新增37,000人,不仅远低于前值60,000人,更远逊于市场预期的110,000人。这一数据创下2023年3月以来的最低增幅,也标志着美国产业用工需求正在显著降温。这一指标很有可能带动市场做出反应,比如美元回落、黄金拉升,美债收益率下挫,美股震荡再反弹等等。但这并不只是一次简单的短线波动,更可能预示着美国经济进入“减速换挡”新阶段。一、就业数据滑坡:一次偶然?还是结构性转折?ADP全国就业报告由自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布,作为非农数据的“前瞻指标”,历来具有较强参考性。此次仅新增3.7万人,远低于2024年全年月均14.8万人的水平。分行业来看:- 服务业新增就业仅约26,000人,其中教育与医疗岗位基本持平;- 制造业与建筑业就业人数双双萎缩;- 科技与金融行业招聘全面收缩,显示高息环境对资本密集型企业施压加剧。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson指出:“年初招聘热潮正在退却。企业正变得谨慎,尤其是在利率高企与全球需求放缓的背景下。”从领先指标角度看,这种就业收缩不是孤立事件。我们注意到:- 美国ISM制造业指数连续两个月低于荣枯线(<50),反映制造部门整体收缩;- 职位空缺率(JOLTS)自年初高点持续回落;- 消费者信心指数(U.Mich)下行,显示居民对经济前景产生担忧。这暗示美国经济或已进入“滞涨边缘”:增长放缓初现、通胀尚未完全受控,经济动能正在减弱。二、对资产价格的启示:美元、黄金的跷跷板1. 美元:高位承压,结构性见顶?自进入2025年开始,美元的强势地位已经开始松动。走出了一路下行的趋势,在昨日ADP数据公布后,特朗普更是喊话鲍威尔说需要立刻马上降息,也体现出目前美元正在面临严峻考验:实质利差优势减少;欧洲央行与加拿大央行已开启降息周期,形成“美元独强”的套利压力;全球资金配置趋向平衡,美债吸引力下降。这些种种因素都让市场判断在未来中短期美元可能会依旧保持这种承压状态。2. 黄金:避险与政策博弈的受益者金价在ADP数据公布后也呈现出小幅上拉趋势,短期内可能依旧保留冲击3400平台的实力。若本周五非农进一步低于预期,金价有望挑战前高。目前黄金走势依旧强劲主要推动因素还是美元的走弱,和美国目前公布的数据都开始显现出经济增速放缓趋势。三、后市展望:美国进入“衰退缓冲区”?从ADP数据出发,我们可以作出以下判断:- 经济阶段: 当前处于增长动能放缓期,类似2019年Q3或2007年Q1的“滞胀预演”;- 政策路径: 若6月非农和CPI双双低于预期,美联储有望在9月降息25bp,年内或总计两次;- 市场资产轮动: 风险资产短期震荡,资金向黄金、债券、部分防御板块(消费、公用事业)集中。ADP的疲软只是第一块多米诺骨牌。接下来的6月非农、CPI、PPI、ISM服务业指数将共同构成市场对“经济是否拐头”的判断依据。当下投资者需要放下短期情绪波动的干扰,关注背后真正重要的变量:美国经济是否正在从高利率中“失速”?政策窗口是否已打开?现在手上持有的资产组合是否能够应对接下来的经济阶段。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部


Introduction: The Moment Before the MoveThere is one key habit that appears to separate consistent high-performance traders from the rest, i.e. they fully prepare before engaging in the “battle of the market”.Before a position is amended or a new order is placed, professional traders engage in a ritual or daily agenda (as many of you have heard me discuss on webinar sessions). This is a structured, repeatable pre-market process that puts YOU in the best place to maintain consistency with your trading plan in the context of current market conditions. Arguably, this should be part of your overall trading system or trading business plan.The Daily Market Prep Checklist, which you can download by clicking the button below, has been designed with exactly this in mind, to help traders like you start every trading day fully in tune with both the market environment and your internal trading state.Whether or not you want to take advantage of the free download, this article aims to not only explain each part of the checklist but also explain what to do and why it could be important in your decision-making process.Whether an experienced trader or less so, additional tips have been added so you can move towards fine-tuning your edge or looking to move to the next level.Click Here to Download your Free ChecklistReading the Market's MoodYour first task in your trading day is to understand the current market context.Looking at what happened overnight that may continue to shape the day ahead is vital, not only simply skimming headlines passively, but to actively engage with the flow of global financial information and current drivers. You are trying to build a picture of not only what has happened but what may happen next.This helps in assessing the day’s potential market bias, such as whether it is a bullish, bearish, or range-bound environment, there is generally a risk-on or risk-off narrative and what the flow is in and out of the major asset classes. Additionally, of course, an evaluation of volatility may help inform not only general risk but also how you may approach some of the positioning you may consider, e.g. where to place stops and take profits, as well as position sizing.What matters is that you are asking the right questions to help you form a strategy for the market NOW before you act. It is not about getting things right all the time; this is an unrealistic goal, but surely a considered opinion and approach of where the risks and opportunities may be is far better than going in “blind”.Pro Tip: Market bias is often seen with a review of major global futures; these are the gauges of sentiment. Their pre-market and movement can add weight to your overall market view.Intermediate Trader Tip: Observe whether volatility expectations (e.g., VIX or price action on longer timeframes) are aligning with any technical setups you may be seeing.Risk Framework and PositioningBefore you even open your trading platform, your approach to risk should already be mapped out. How many trades are you willing to have open today, and how much of your account are you prepared to risk per position are ESSENTIAL questions to answer at the start of a trading session.This step is not about limitation. It’s about removing decision fatigue and emotional interference once the market opens, particularly in the event of rapid and significant market moves across multiple positions at the same time. For example, knowing that you’ll only open a maximum of two trades today forces you to be selective and choose those with the strongest set-ups. In addition, “market-oriented” position sizing is a logical way to manage the emotional difficulties of increased account risk due to challenging markets.The Economic Calendar Moves PriceTraders often focus on the technical picture seen on a chart and miss the ticking countdown to scheduled economic events that may move prices in seconds. Whether a central bank decision, CPI data, if there is a significant move away from numbers that were expected, the market doesn’t just respond tamely, but may undergo a major recalibration.Of course, this is not only important in terms of opening new positions but managing the open trades you already have, and you are faced with three choices pre-data release:
- To ride it out
- To tighten trail stops/reduce positions
- Exit positions
Taking a few minutes each morning to scan for high and medium-impact events and making the decision on what action you will take and when will serve you well when attempting to manage risk more effectively in these situations.Intermediate Trader Tip: Start logging how your watchlist instruments react to specific events over time. Journal your chosen approach versus the alternatives to inform you in the future.The Key Levels That Matter: The current price is always interacting with the overall structure of price over time. This reality and a key part of your preparation is about identifying those price points where action is most likely to occur and sentiment changes become apparent. These might be recent highs and lows, clear support or resistance zones and of course, round numbers.Again being prepared through identifying these, particularly those which are approaching such important key price levels can be difference of you getting in or out of a trade at the optimum time as sentiment changes (or doesn’t change suggesting a trend move may be completed), rather than missing an opportunity to get in at the start of a move (rather than later) or taking profit rather than giving it back to the market.Pro Tip: Print your charts with levels marked or take a screenshot each morning. Reviewing these in hindsight builds your pattern recognition and potentially assists in the creation of EAs or informing strategy changes.Beyond the Charts – Knowing Market DriversNot every market move is tied to a pre-defined data release. Often, as we have seen many times of late, unscheduled events can be massively impactful on sentiment. Geopolitical tensions that may escalate, trade talks that may influence industries in the back of a “truth social” post, or policy meetings that may produce outcomes that could shift sentiment, e.g. new policy bills, OPEC meetings.If you can identify two to four potential market drivers beyond the usual data points this may be good information to have when creating your market “picture”, and although you may not have to act on these immediately, knowing that they exist puts you in a better position to respond appropriately rather than react emotionally has got to be a good thing,Pro Tip: Ask yourself: If this potential story escalates, which instruments are likely to move, and what does that mean to what I am going to do/not do today?Personal Readiness to tradeThis is the most overlooked and underrated part of pre-market preparation. As traders, we often feel that we “have to trade” rather than assessing the risk that we are bringing to the table if we are not in the optimum trading state (again, a topic covered in previous webinars).Logically, we need to be able to permit ourselves not to trade or to trade less, if we are not in the best place to make decisions at any time or day.Evaluate where you are at the start of the day with your emotional state, potential out-of-market distractions, and physical wellness. Markets and the potential opportunities that they can give will still be there tomorrow. You must be honest with yourself. If today isn’t the right day, you can reduce size, trade less, or don’t trade at all.Pro and Intermediate Trader Tip: Track your psychological state in a journal alongside trade results. Patterns will emerge. You’ll start to see which states lead to your best performance — and which sabotage it.Click Here to Download your Free ChecklistSummary: The Professional Begins Before the BellThis checklist is not just about technical steps; it’s about creating alignment between you and your interaction with the market. Having considered information that will help form your approach for the day, enables consistency in execution, and this will always be served well by consistency in preparation. Whatever and however you are trading, your process logically should be the same in that you need to do the things not just to prepare to trade but to prepare to perform at the next level you can.The real work starts before the market opens.If you have found the article and particularly the download useful, then we would be delighted with any feedback you can give. Please feel free to connect at any time at [email protected] with any thoughts you have about this or other things that may be useful to you on your trading journey.
