市场资讯及洞察

2025年,拉丁美洲(LATAM)的加密货币交易量超过7300亿美元,同比增长60%,这使该地区约占全球加密活动的10%。
2026年,机构参与者开始认真对待该地区,监管正在具体化,2025年以来的结构性驱动因素没有减弱的迹象。但是该地区不是一个单一的故事,2026年将考验当前的势头是建立在坚实的基本面还是投机乐观情绪之上。
事实速览
- 拉丁美洲每月活跃的加密用户同比增长18%,是美国的三倍。
- 阿根廷的月活跃用户渗透率达到12%,占该地区加密活动的四分之一以上。
- 现在,超过90%的巴西加密货币流量与稳定币有关。
- 三个拉美国家进入全球前20名:巴西(第5位)、委内瑞拉(第18位)、阿根廷(第20位)。
- 秘鲁的加密应用程序下载量在2025年增长了50%,下载量为290万次。

从生存工具到金融基础设施
由于投机,拉丁美洲没有接受加密货币。它之所以接受它,是因为传统的金融体系一再让普通百姓失望。在过去的15年中,该地区五个最大经济体的平均年通货膨胀率为13%,而同期美国的平均年通货膨胀率仅为2.3%。
在委内瑞拉,这一比例在一年内达到了65,000%。在阿根廷,这一比例在2024年超过了220%。对于数百万人来说,以当地货币持有储蓄是一种缓慢的自我毁灭行为。稳定币成为了自然的反应。与美元挂钩的数字资产提供了可靠的价值储存、无国界的转移性以及无需银行账户即可访问。
与西方不同,在西方,加密货币更多地被视为一种投机工具,而在拉丁美洲,它已成为一种必要的金融工具。但是,该地区的采用驱动因素并不完全统一。巴西和墨西哥是机构故事,受监管的市场参与和成熟的金融参与者的推动。
阿根廷和委内瑞拉仍然是保值游戏,加密货币是抵御法币崩盘的直接对冲工具。秘鲁和哥伦比亚是更追求收益的市场,加密货币提供的回报是传统储蓄账户无法比拟的。

拉美采用加密货币的速度有多快?
2025年,拉美的链上加密货币交易量同比增长了60%。自2022年年中以来,该地区的累计交易量已达到近1.5万亿美元,在2024年12月达到创纪录的单月877亿美元的峰值。
2025年,拉丁美洲的月活跃加密用户也增长了18%,是美国的三倍。
稳定币是推动这种采用的主要工具。在2025年收到的7,300亿美元中,有3,240亿美元是通过稳定币交易转移的,同比增长89%。在巴西,超过90%的加密货币流量与稳定币相关,而在阿根廷,稳定币占活动的60%以上。
展望未来,根据IMARC集团的数据,到2033年,拉丁美洲的加密货币市场预计将达到4426亿美元,从2025年起将以10.93%的复合年增长率增长。
对于交易者而言,采用速度与其说是头条新闻,不如说是推动采用速度的原因:该地区有6.5亿人以稳定币为基础,实时建设平行金融基础设施。
机构转向
在拉美的大部分加密历史中,采用率是自下而上的。没有银行账户或银行账户不足的零售用户通过本地交易所推动了交易量。现在,高端市场的这种情况正在发生变化。
2026年2月,全球领先交易所运营商德意志交易所集团旗下的Crypto Finance集团宣布向拉丁美洲扩张,目标是寻求机构级托管和交易基础设施的银行、资产管理公司和金融中介机构。
传统银行和金融科技公司纷纷效仿。Nubank现在奖励持有USDC的客户。巴西的B3交易所于2025年批准了世界上第一只现货XRP和SOL ETF,领先于美国。自2024年初以来,包括梅尔卡多比特币、NovaDAX和币安在内的中心化交易所共上市了200多个新的以巴西雷亚尔计价的交易对。
2025年3月,巴西金融科技公司Meliuz成为该国第一家推出比特币增持策略的上市公司,目前持有320比特币。
“拉丁美洲已经在全球范围内采用加密货币。市场现在需要的是机构级治理,这正是我们来到这里的原因,” ——加密金融集团首席执行官Stijn Vander Straeten
加密汇款用例
拉丁美洲每年从海外工人那里获得数千亿美元,这使汇款成为该地区最具体、最可衡量的加密用例之一。传统的转账服务平均每笔交易收取6.2%的费用。对于300美元的转账,大约相当于20美元的费用。
基于区块链的基础设施可以更广泛地降低费用。比特币使每转账100美元的成本约为3.12美元。而像XRP或以太坊第二层基础设施这样更便宜的替代方案可以将其降低到0.01美元以下。
对于向秘鲁汇款1,500美元的移民工人来说,仅从传统银行转账就能节省的费用超过秘鲁每周平均工资。
LATAM 的加密监管环境
最能决定LATAM是否发挥其2026年潜力的变量是加密监管。在这里,情况确实好坏参半。
巴西的《虚拟资产法》在该地区处于领先地位,该法涵盖资产隔离、VASP 许可、AML/KYC 要求和资本标准。它还实施了国内 VASP 转账旅行规则,该规则于 2026 年 2 月生效。但是,一些更具争议的提案,包括对跨境稳定币交易设定10万美元的上限以及禁止自托管钱包转账,仍在积极磋商中。
墨西哥的2018年金融科技法仍然是世界上最早正式承认虚拟资产的法规之一。智利的2023年金融科技法为交易所、钱包和稳定币发行人设立了许可证,正式承认数字资产为 “数字货币”。
玻利维亚于2024年6月批准了受监管的数字资产交易,撤销了长达十年的加密禁令。阿根廷于2025年引入了强制性交易所登记。尽管取消了比特币的法定货币地位,但萨尔瓦多仍在继续扩大代币化经济举措。
该地区的十个国家现在拥有某种正式的加密框架。但是对于交易者来说,监管分歧仍然是一种现实风险,鉴于巴西获得的拉美加密货币交易量占拉美所有加密货币交易量的近三分之一,任何重大的政策逆转都可能产生巨大的后果。

交易者应该注意什么
巴西的制度势头是最重要的结构性趋势。到2025年,巴西的链上交易量为3188亿美元,实际上是拉丁美洲市场。
巴西稳定币磋商的结果可能会产生很大的影响。限制在国内支付中使用外国稳定币将直接影响该地区主导市场中交易量最大的资产类别。
阿根廷是波动率的玩家。2025年,月活跃用户渗透率为12%,加密应用程序下载量为540万次,这表明零售参与度不断提高。
哥伦比亚是一个值得关注的预警市场。2025年比索贬值5.3%,财政危机的加深正在推动稳定币流入,其模式反映了阿根廷早年的发展轨迹。如果哥伦比亚的宏观形势进一步恶化,加密货币的采用可能会加速。
交易所集中风险也在起作用。币安加密货币交易所是超过50%的拉丁美洲加密用户的主要交易所。如果交易所面临任何监管行动、运营中断或竞争冲击,可能会对市场产生巨大的影响。
底线
拉丁美洲的加密市场进入了一个新阶段。导致该地区最初出现加密需求的结构性驱动因素尚未消失:通货膨胀、汇款、金融排斥和货币不稳定都仍在起作用。
所发生的变化是建立在它们之上的图层。机构基础设施、监管框架、企业资金的采用以及流入直到最近还基本自给自足的地区的全球交易所资本。
巴西在2025年将近-250%的交易量增长及其占拉美所有加密货币的近三分之一的地位是决定性的市场发展。其监管轨迹、稳定币政策决策和ETF渠道将有效地为该地区在2026年定下基调。
对于交易者而言,总体增长数据是真实的,但其背后的集中风险、监管不确定性以及国家层面的分歧也是真实的。


在使用MT5进行技术分析时,你是否也遇到过这种情况:想快速知道某一段K线之间的波动区间、点数变化或时间跨度,却只能手动一个个数?其实,MT5内置了一个简单但高效的小工具,只需轻轻一点,就能立刻显示两点之间的详细数据。今天就带你解锁这个新手常忽略、高手常用的小技巧,大幅提升你的分析效率!简单一拖,关键数据一目了然。首先,打开MT5交易软件,并选择任意一个品种的K线图。在默认设置下,当我们将鼠标悬停在图表上,想查看某个点的具体位置时,往往只能依靠目测来对齐右侧的纵坐标获取价格数据。这种方式不仅难以精确定位,还容易出现偏差。对于横坐标上的时间信息,同样需要用眼睛去比对时间轴,既不准确,又非常耗时。为了提升图表分析的效率,我们可以启用十字光标功能。你可以通过点击上方工具栏中的十字光标图标来开启,也可以使用快捷键Ctrl+F进行快速切换。

这样通过十字光标的横竖两条直线,我们可以快速定位到鼠标所处位置的时间和价格。如果想要关闭十字光标,只需用鼠标左键点击图表任意位置即可。除了十字光标这个显而易见的功能,MT5中还隐藏着一个非常高效的实用工具——它可以帮助我们快速测量两点之间的距离,并自动计算所选区间内的涨跌幅。具体怎么操作呢?启用十字光标后,先将光标定位在你想查看的起始点,然后按住鼠标左键,拖拽到目标终点。此时,图表上会出现一组数据,展示这两个点之间的统计信息。

例如图中所示:3251.49:终点对应的价格40 bars:起点到终点之间包含的K线数量32335 points:两点之间的价格差,以点为单位+11.04%:该区间内的涨跌幅,正值为上涨,负值为下跌通过这个功能,我们可以在几秒钟内快速查看任意区间的价格变化,显著提升K线图分析的效率。总的来说,MT5中的十字光标不仅能精准定位图表上的价格与时间,更隐藏了一个强大的区间测量功能,让我们可以高效地获取两点之间的K线数量、价格差以及涨跌幅。这一简单操作,大大节省了分析时间,也让图表阅读更加直观。下次在看K线图时,不妨试试这个小技巧,也许你会发现,提升效率,其实就是从这些细节开始的。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部


刚刚过去的周末,几则重磅消息已为本周市场走势埋下伏笔。从宏观数据到国际政策,再到大宗商品与热门板块,投资者迎来一个“不能忽视”的开局。✅ 核心数据释放积极信号上周五公布的美国核心PCE物价指数如期放缓,前值上修进一步凸显通胀回落的趋势。同时,GDP修正值较初值小幅改善,基本面边际好转,三大股指周线均录得上涨,市场情绪略显回暖。⚠️ 关税摩擦再起波澜周末,美国政府在贸易政策上动作频频。一方面,提高部分钢铁进口关税至50%,引发多方关注;另一方面,贸易代表办公室却延长了部分对华商品的301条款关税豁免至8月底,显示政策内部仍存在一定平衡考量。与此同时,相关关税调整也引发了欧盟与加拿大的回应预期,贸易摩擦有升温迹象。避险情绪随之上升,黄金价格早盘快速拉升。 油市反应反常,OPEC增产未压价格尽管OPEC+宣布小幅增产41.1万桶/日,国际油价却出现逆势上涨,反映出市场对供需结构紧张的持续担忧。在大宗商品价格波动加剧的背景下,通胀路径仍存在不确定性。 非农在即,降息预期再起本周市场将迎来美国非农就业数据。目前预期显示就业增长或显疲态,若数据显著回落,美联储在降息问题上的博弈或再度升温。考虑到前期数据偏强的“修正期”效应,本周将成为政策预期的重要观察窗口。 板块表现:防御属性更受青睐AI及其应用、核电、量子科技等热门题材在上周均有不俗表现。但若美股整体转弱,相关板块可能面临短期回调风险。相对而言,公共事业成为短期防御方向,电力股如杜克能源等或具备一定交易机会。稳定币概念下,CRCL上市预期也值得关注。 澳股及汇市表现:依旧偏弱本周澳股开局可能偏弱,缺乏强劲驱动。汇率方面,澳元早盘小幅走强,澳美短线反弹,但持续性存疑。美元保持稳定,美日小幅震荡,市场整体仍以稳为主。 数字市场方面比特币维持在10.5万美元附近小幅上行,短线企稳迹象初现,但整体仍缺乏强劲推动力。 小结:PCE回落、GDP好转,提供了温和利好;但关税升级、就业隐忧与油价反弹又使得市场信心承压。在多空博弈加剧的背景下,美股本周大概率维持震荡整理格局,结构性防御配置建议优先考虑公共事业类资产。保持谨慎,静待非农落地,是本周应对波动的不二之选。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师


IntroductionAs any experienced trader has seen in the reality of the market, knowing when and how to exit trades is arguably as important, if not more important, than knowing when to enter. We have invested a lot of time on Inner circle webinars discussing exit approaches not only in terms of management of potential capital risk i.e. the potential to lose on a trade, but equally as impactful on overall outcomes the approaches you can implement in reducing the amount of “giveback” when in a trade that goes in your desired direction i.e. profit risk.One such approach is to use an incremental method, rather than closing an entire position at once, to lock in profit through the use of a partial close. This, in simple terms, allows a trader to close a portion of their trade, so banking some profit, while keeping the rest open.As with any approach in your trading decision making, and in the quest for consistency in action so you can see what works and doesn’t in your trading system, this should be planned and of course executed with consistency, as through this, discipline you will be able to find the approaches that are a best fit for you and your trading style and objectives.Unfortunately, although many may have dabbled with the concept of partial close, often this is not backed up with that required consistency, rather occurring as a ‘heat of the moment’ ad-hoc decision that may not serve you well for a lifetime of trading.This article aims to help you develop this part of your trading plan exit strategy, defining what partial closes are, how to make them happen with consistency to enable informed system refinement, and the options you can explore for managing the remaining position.What Is a Partial Close?A partial close is a profit risk management approach where a trader exits only a portion of their position prior to a final ultimate profit target being hit. For example, if a trader enters a trade with 1.0 lots, should the trade moves in the desired direction, they might choose to close 0.5 lots once the trade reaches a predefined profit level, allowing the other 0.5 lots to continue running.This technique is commonly used across all trading styles and timeframes and can also be actioned manually or coded within an automated trading system, e.g. with an EA.Advantages of Using Partial Closes
- Lock in Profits: By securing some profit early, traders can realise some of the gains in a position, both the psychological pressure of holding the full position, reducing overall market exposure, as well as locking in some “banked” profit into their trading account.
- Reduce Risk: In practical terms, lowering exposure in a position (and so also the account market exposure) means that if the market reverses, the trader has less monetary risk. In addition to the percentage movement towards a take profit, partial closes can also be used to reduce risk in situations where market risk may be increased, such as prior to economic data release, while still preserving some upside potential if the data comes in favourably compared to what was expected.
- Increase Flexibility: Partial closes can be combined with other exit strategies, including trailing stops or time-based exits, allowing a strategic approach to profit risk management.
- Better Emotional Control: Traders may find it easier to stay disciplined with the remainder of the positions if they know part of their profits are already ”safe”.
Limitations and Challenges
- Capped Upside Potential: Exiting a portion early can reduce overall returns if the trade continues strongly in your favour.
- Complexity: Managing multiple exit points adds layers of decision-making, especially in discretionary trading. This reinforces the advantage of having written “when and how” guidelines for taking action as a formal part of your trading system.
- Trader Knowledge Limitations: Of course, there will be specific ways in which to action partial close on your trading platform. This does require some knowledge on the part of the trader to make sure these are actioned as planned. Methods to do this will differ from one platform type to another, so no assumptions can be made that just because you have done this on a different type of platform that it will be obvious on another. Of course, this can be learned easily through practice on a demo account before implementation on a live account.
Key Components of a Partial Close StrategyThere are three components to any partial close strategy, namely, when to act, how much to close, and your approach to managing the remaining portion of the trade that is still in the market. Let’s consider each of these.
- Timing: When to Perform your Partial Close
There are four common methods used:
- Target-Based: Close part of the trade at a specific reward-to-risk milestone, such as 1R (where R is the initial risk). In this case, it would not be uncommon to have multiple partial closures. e.g. at 1R, 2R etc.
- Technical Level: Exit a portion at known support/resistance or Pivot level to lock in profit at a potential pause or reversal point.
- Progress towards take profit: As referenced earlier, as one of the most common approaches, a preset take profit provides an opportunity to implement a partial close at a percentage move towards your take profit. E.g. you action this at 50% towards your take profit.
- Time-Based: Although less common, set time rules may be the action point. Often, closing part of the position after a certain number of candles or hours may be considered, or as previously referenced, a risk management approach when significant data release is imminent, e.g., CPI, jobs data
- Sizing Adjustment: How Much to Close
There are three potential approaches to this.
- Fixed Size: A predetermined percentage (e.g., 50%) of the position when the specified price target is hit. This is probably the most common and easiest to implement
- Scaled Reduction: Slightly more involved is the approach to gradually close smaller chunks of your position, such as 25%, then another 25% at later levels. The practicalities of this are more difficult to implement, not only in working out what the multiple closes may be in terms of overall position, but also could be difficult to implement with some strategies where a relatively small move is the overall target. In other words, the larger the distance between entry and final expected reversal or pause point, the easier this will be to act on.
- Dynamic Approach: For advanced traders, the option of basing the size of the partial close on trade conditions like volatility or market structure could be considered. In practice, this may take a considerable amount of time and a critical mass of results data to action consistently and may require multiple refinements to achieve such and demonstrate better outcomes than other approaches. For this reason, this is not common.
- Managing the Remainder of the Trade
Once a partial close has been executed, the remaining position still requires management.Options for management include:
- Leave the Stop Loss Unchanged: Allow the remaining portion to play out as per the original plan, maintaining your original full stop-loss distance. The advantage of this is that you still give the market a chance to move rather than the remainder being taken out by “noise”. Those who advocate this method would suggest that it can potentially create a no-lose situation where your partial close has covered your stop, BUT this values your net worth in a position at the entry price, NOT the value after a move in your favour.
- Structure-Based Trail: Move the stop behind recent swing highs/lows, so on each retracement on a move in your direction, you continue to lock in some more profit with the remainder of the trade.
- Move to Breakeven or Beyond: To eliminate the risk of the remaining portion and to improve the potential outcome that the best your partial close does in that described in the first scenario would be to move the stop to the entry price or above (e.g., breakeven +1 ATR) once part of the trade is closed.
Combining With Other Exit MethodsPartial closures do not exist in isolation. They can work alongside other experts such as”
- Fixed Take Profits: Set targets for final exit.
- Time-Based Exits: Exit the remainder if the trade stagnates.
- Trail Stop methods: Exit on reversal candlestick patterns or other dynamic trailing stops e,g, Price vs Moving average
The key is to ensure all components, including those associated with your partial close, are part of a consistently executed and tested strategy.Final Thoughts and SummaryPartial closes offer traders a way to blend some security with the opportunity of locking in gains while keeping the door open for a continued move in your desired direction.They can be particularly effective in volatile environments where prices can swing rapidly between technical zones and in the management of pre-data release situations.Without wanting to labour the point too much as with any trading method you use during the life of a single or multiple trades, the key is having a plan articulated that facilitates consistency, discipline in execution, and evidence-based decision-making following thorough testing of not only this approach but in comparing it against other “what-if” scenarios.We trust that as a minimum, this has given you food for thought it not only whether partial closes could be a fit for your trading but also some guidance about how to action this if you choose to follow through on an evaluation of this exit approach.


In the words of Bjork’ 90s indie hit “Oh So Quiet” –It's, oh, so quiet Shhhh, Shhhh, It's, oh, so still Shhhh, Shhhh, You're all alone Shhh, Shhh And so peaceful until…Until… that is the question, and considering it is ‘peaceful’, it's probably best to review the minutes from the Fed as it is signalling that the quiet time is not far from ending soon.FOMC: The Pressure BuildsThe May 6th to 7th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes reaffirmed the Fed’s cautious stance, with Chair Powell keeping to the “wait and see” script. But under the surface, the outlook has become more complicated as event risk is getting louder.Clearly, Trump’s Tariffs have created new complications for the Fed’s dual mandate.As the minutes note:“With uncertainty higher due to ‘larger and broader’ than expected tariffs, the Committee may ultimately face a more difficult trade-off between its price stability and full employment mandates.”And this was well before the Trade Court’s decision that the Liberation Day tariffs are illegal under the Economic Emergency Act of 1977, and then it was subsequently overturned 24 hours later by the appeals court.The Fed has flagged increased downside risk to real activity and now sees the probability of recession as nearly equal to its baseline forecast. At the same time, inflation risks for 2025 have been revised upward, though longer-term projections remain skewed to the upside, particularly as inflation expectations creep higher.Seen in these quotes from the minutes:“The staff continued to view the risks around the inflation forecast as skewed to the upside, with recent increases in some measures of inflation expectations raising the possibility that inflation would prove to be more persistent than the baseline projection assumed.”“Many participants reported that firms planned to partially or fully pass on tariff-related cost increases.”To paraphrase Milton Friedman, “Tariffs are not a tax on the sovereign, they are a tax on the consumer.” And this is what is being missed by government officials and the President himself.A counterargument to higher cost is that Fed officials suggested there is a chance of weakening demand, lower immigration driven housing inflation, and competitive pricing tactics. Which would feed back into the risk of recession as mentioned above, and signal that the US is entering a new stagflation era.Seen here:“Several argued that there might be less inflationary pressure for reasons such as reductions of tariff increases from ongoing trade negotiations, less tolerance for price increases by households, a weakening of the economy, reduced housing inflation pressures from lower immigration, or a desire by some firms to increase market share rather than raise prices.”On employment, the labour market remains tight but is potentially vulnerable to hiring pauses as policy and trade risks weigh.“The labour market was seen as ‘broadly in balance’ and the unemployment rate as ‘low.’”“Participants were concerned that tariff uncertainty could lead to a pause in hiring and the labour market to soften in the coming months.”Financial market signals were mixed. Several participants noted an unusual pattern: long-term Treasury yields rose even as the dollar weakened and equities sold off, raising concerns about shifting correlations and safe-haven perceptions.“Some participants commented on a change from the typical pattern... with longer-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating despite the decline in the prices of equities and other risky assets... [noting] that a durable shift... could have long-lasting implications for the economy.”Monetary framework discussions continue as well. The Fed appears to be reconsidering its post-COVID commitment to flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT). The minutes state:“Participants indicated that they thought it would be appropriate to reconsider the average inflation-targeting language in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.”An interesting development is putting more rigidity into the mandate currently, suggesting the Fed is looking to ‘safeguard’ policy changes from external political forces.Where does this leave the US and the Fed in the short term? Don’t expect any near-term policy change, but the longer the Fed delays, the steeper the eventual rate cuts may need to be as the risks of a tariff-induced recession lead to the monetary brake being released.The consensus is that by January 2026, a possible 125 basis point will come out of the Federal funds rate, some even are forecasting 175 due to the need to stimulate the economy rather than restrict it. The consensus figure would see the Federal Funds rate landing on the terminal rate of 3.00% to 3.25%, the unknown is when, the size and velocity of reaching this point will be.It is oh so quiet, but it won’t be for long if the Fed is anything to go by.


六月美债即将到期,国际贸易法院裁定特朗普征税越权,马斯克离职DOGE5月29日,美国国际贸易法院作出重大裁决,认定前总统特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)实施的全球性关税行为,缺乏法律依据,构成越权。受此影响,美股三大股指走高,黄金价格走弱,市场高度关注事件后续发展。一、发生了什么?美国国际贸易法院三位法官联合裁定,叫停特朗普此前依据IEEPA征收的所谓“解放日”关税,并宣布这一行为越权无效。具体而言:法院裁定特朗普无权基于IEEPA向他国加征关税,即总统不能将该法用于施加贸易惩罚。被叫停的关税包括:今年4月2日生效的“解放日”关税,以及此前对中国、墨西哥和加拿大施加、以打击芬太尼流入为名的进口关税。法院认为,这些关税违反了IEEPA的立法初衷,因为IEEPA从未被用于设立对外贸易壁垒,而主要针对资产冻结、金融制裁等紧急经济行为。需要注意的是,该裁决并不影响目前根据《贸易扩展法》第232条征收的汽车、钢铝制品等25%关税。二、事件的法律与政治背景关税征收权原属于国会,但自1974年《贸易法》修订后逐步赋予总统更大权限。特朗普任内频繁以国家安全、公共卫生等理由施加关税,开启了贸易政策“总统化”的先例。然而,IEEPA从未被用于常规征税,法院本次裁决为贸易权力的合法边界划出红线。三、后续可能发展目前白宫尚未回应该裁决。根据法律程序,特朗普团队可以向联邦巡回上诉法院或直接上诉至最高法院。尽管保守派在最高法院占据6:3多数,但历史表明其判决并非全然站队保守政治人物。这意味着,美国的贸易政策合法性审查很可能会成为2024大选年后又一次“国运之争”。四、市场影响初显近期美股处于震荡整理阶段,此次裁决如同“催化剂”,市场解读为减缓贸易紧张局势的利好:美股三大股指上扬,尤其是科技与消费类板块;黄金价格走弱,反映避险需求下降;投资者风险偏好回升,短期对全球市场情绪构成正面影响。五、马斯克“退出政坛”:政府效率改革告一段落另一重磅新闻是,埃隆·马斯克正式宣布退出特朗普政府的“政府效率部”(DOGE)工作,将专注回归特斯拉及个人商业帝国。马斯克任内主导削减联邦支出,原计划削减1万亿美元,实际仅节省约1600亿美元;其政策触动众多既得利益者,受到民主党和媒体的激烈批评,也影响其企业管理时间,导致特斯拉一度信心受损。可以说,马斯克的“政务试验”虽初衷为改革,却在现实利益中寸步难行。六、“大美丽法案”与美债困局特朗普政府推行的“大美丽法案”可能加剧当前财政负担:该法案包括大规模减税、削减福利、增加军费,短期内刺激经济,但长期扩大赤字;即便关税等手段带来部分财政收入,但很快就被高额支出吞噬,财政压力持续上升。七、债务悬崖在六月爆发可能性虽然美国政府将在6月初迎来大额国债到期,但大多数分析人士认为违约概率依然极低,原因包括:提高债务上限仍可作为手段;发行稳定币的监管框架逐渐明朗,要求其资产支撑为美债或现金,有望增强国债流动性;通过降息或债务再融资降低偿债压力;最终底牌是:美元的铸币权仍在美联储,若无其他办法,美方可选择容忍通胀,通过印钞应对。虽然长期美债问题确实存在系统性风险,但今年6月违约的可能性极低。总结美国国际贸易法院对特朗普全球征税行为的叫停,标志着总统贸易权力再次受到司法审查。市场短期利好,美股提振。与此同时,马斯克“卸甲归田”,专注商业回归,给特斯拉带来利好。尽管美债风险仍在,但在众多缓解手段下,6月危机暂时无虞。真正值得关注的是——长期财政赤字与美元信用的系统性考验,远未结束。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Mill Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部


IntroductionAs many of you will know, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and an increasingly wide range of other cryptocurrencies have become one of the most closely followed asset classes globally by investors and traders alike. This, combined with the ability to trade these assets using CFDs, has simply added not only to their popularity but also provided you, as a trader, the potential to add something new on top of what you already trade.Its rise to a multi-trillion-dollar asset class has captured the attention of traders, investors, institutions, and even governments, as evidenced by daily updates within mainstream financial media.Crypto's appeal lies not just in its potential for speculative gains, but in its revolutionary structure, which means you are potentially trading a decentralised and borderless asset that operates outside traditional finance. Whether seen as digital gold, an inflation hedge, a future payment system, or simply a volatile trading opportunity, Bitcoin and its peers continue to attract attention.As stated before, more than ever, traders can access Bitcoin and other cryptos easily through a variety of instruments, including crypto CFDs. These allow participation without needing to open dedicated wallets or directly handle tokens, particularly convenient for those already using MetaTrader platforms (MT4/5), where Bitcoin CFDs and other crypto products are increasingly available. GO Markets is leading the way, adding to its crypto offering and as with an asset class, we aim to provide not only the products themselves but also some assistance to those looking at these either for the first time or to expand their exposure into some of the lesser-known cryptocurrency CFDs.As with any new instrument, there are essential things you must know, such as what moves the market, how the product is priced and traded, and how to manage the unique risks that crypto trading brings.On a point of definition, it is worth referencing the term “Altcoin”. This simply comes from combining "alternative" and "coin", and essentially groups together a broad and diverse group of cryptocurrencies with varying functions, technologies, and market purposes.So, whether you're just getting started or reassessing how you trade Bitcoin and crypto, this article aims to provide practical tips, insights into trading system development, and helpful resources to approach crypto markets with more clarity and control.Cryptos versus Crypto ETFs, or Crypto CFDs – Why Trade CFDs?So now onto market issues that may mean CFDs could be for you.Extended Trading Hours: The crypto market on the GO Market MT5 platform is open 24/7, unlike traditional markets, there's no downtime. Trading crypto CFDs lets you access this round-the-clock action without needing to hold the actual coins or use crypto exchanges. Importantly, with CFDs, your trading platform can be your single point of access for not only what instruments you trade already, but you can add crypto CFDs to your toolbox as easily as trading an FX pair or Share CFD.Direct Exposure to Price Action: Unlike ETFs or crypto-themed stocks, which are influenced by broader market factors or business performance, crypto CFDs allow you to trade the price of the asset directly. You’re trading exposure to Bitcoin or Ethereum itself, not a blockchain company's management effectiveness or an ETF's structure.Short and Long with Ease: Crypto CFDs allow you to go long or short easily. For traders looking to take advantage of changes in trader sentiment in EITHER DIRECTION, this is a major advantage of CFDs.Lower Capital Requirements: CFDs offer fractional trading, so you don’t need to buy a full Bitcoin (or even a whole altcoin token). You can start small, even at a 0.1 lot size and scale your position as your strategy begins to show positive outcomes and confidence grows. Your leverage and margin requirement will be dependent on account type, and it is worth emphasising that, as with any margin trading, the risks are exaggerated as well as the opportunity. As with any trading, capital protection and appropriate trade position sizing must remain at the forefront of any trading approach.What Moves the Price of Cryptos?As with gold, which we covered in a recent article, understanding what drives crypto prices helps you trade proactively rather than reactively, with the ability to perhaps see the potential for risks and opportunities early so you can be ready if a set-up or time to exit may be imminent.Before going into the major factors that move cryptos, it is worth briefly looking at the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins generally, i.e. does a movement in Bitcoin necessarily mean a move in Altcoins?As a rule, most altcoins are positively correlated with Bitcoin (BTC), meaning when BTC goes up, altcoins tend to go up too, and vice versa.There may be a delay in altcoin movement, with BTC leading the way, especially in sharp market moves, although such moves may differ in relative % terms, particularly in lower-cost Altcoins.Additionally, it is worth referencing the potential for changes in specific Altcoins should there be regulatory or protocol-specific news (e.g., an SEC intervention or reports of hacking, for example).It is worth pointing out that some research should be undertaken on individual coin types prior to trading (as arguably you should ALWAYS do with any asset that is new to you).The key factors are as follows:
- Macroeconomic Sentiment: Bitcoin has increasingly behaved as a “risk-on” asset. It tends to rise when confidence returns to markets and fall during macroeconomic fear or liquidity stress. In good economic times, when perhaps investors have more available liquid cash and are happier to speculate, this could be a good time for cryptos. Also, in certain conditions such as increased inflationary concerns, Bitcoin as like gold, may be seen as a potential hedge. These narratives can shift quickly, but being in tune with financial news as well as what you are seeing on a chart may give clues as to how the market is viewing cryptos at any time.
- Regulatory Headlines: As referenced above, Bitcoin and altcoins are highly sensitive to regulation. News from the SEC, European Commission, or Asian regulators can trigger massive market moves as the perception of risk changes. A single statement from a central bank, policymakers or rulings on ETF approval (As we saw with recent increases in crypto ETF offerings) can spark short-term volatility.
- Institutional Adoption and Rejection: Any announcements of crypto being added or removed from payment platforms, ETF funds, or treasury holdings by major companies such as Tesla, BlackRock, or PayPal can sharply influence price in the short term.
- Network Activity and On-Chain Data: Particularly for altcoins, rising transaction volumes, developer activity, and user adoption can signal health and long-term viability. These metrics are often used by crypto-native traders to assess potential.
- Government Sentiment and Narrative: Clearly, and as seen since the inauguration of the recent US change in Government, any change in policy or inferences that regulation may be changed be whether tightened or relaxed, is likely to impact investor sentiment.
5 Practical Steps to Ease into Crypto CFD Trading
- Start with a Demo Account: Just like with gold CFDs, crypto's volatility is real and fast. Use a demo account to observe how Bitcoin or Ethereum behaves during major market sessions and how CFD pricing reflects this.
- Start Small on Live Trades: Begin with minimum lot sizes. Crypto price moves can be significant even on small trades. Slippage, spread widening, and gaps (especially over weekends or during system upgrades) are not uncommon.
- Understand Crypto-Specific Risk: Unlike gold, cryptos are (albeit rarely) vulnerable to hacks, chain outages, and delisting. While less relevant for CFDs, sharp price action can still result from these risks.
- Watch the Clock Differently: Crypto doesn’t sleep, but some hours are more active than others. Overlaps of US and European sessions, as with many asset classes, tend to see higher volumes. Major moves will often happen around US economic data as overall risk-on, risk-off sentiment shifts.
- Evaluate Altcoins Cautiously: If trading lesser-known coins, you need to be aware that these are often more volatile and news-driven. Lower liquidity and more retail speculative exposure can contribute to this, which can, of course, work both positively and negatively on price. Mitigate for this in your trading plan and intra-trade management.
Strategy and Risk Management ConsiderationsDefine Your Strategy: Are you trend-trading based on technical levels or swing-trading based on macro narrative shifts? Crypto, of course, may suit, but trading consistency ALWAYS requires clear entry and exit criteria as well as discipline in the execution of your plan.Adjust for Volatility: Use tools like ATR to set more realistic stops and targets. Bitcoin, for example, can EASILY move 3–5% in a standard day even without a major headline. Your system needs to reflect this.Incorporate Trailing Stops: Once in profit, use volatility-based trailing stops to protect from profit risk. i.e. giving too much back to the market with a successful trade.Use Breakout Confirmation: Altcoins, especially, are prone to false breakouts—often pumped and dumped quickly. Use volume, RSI/MACD divergence, or candle confirmation before acting.Avoid These Common MistakesOverleveraging: The temptation to “bet big” on a small move is real. But the reality of a 10% intraday swing should be enough to convince any trader to manage size carefully, as of course, risks are magnified with leveraged trading as stated previouslyChasing Hype Coins: Many traders lose by buying at the peak of any ‘hype cycle’. If you see price trending for some time or just hit a MASSIVE gain, you could be too late to the party. Have a plan to manage this potential risk.Ignoring Broader Markets: Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. Its correlation with Nasdaq, yields, and USD strength is growing. Don't ignore these intermarket relationships.Trading Every Coin You See: Focus on 1–3 cryptos, learn what they are, what specifically moves them and anticipated usual price action. Once you have mastered these them perhaps add one at a time. Random entries based on “this coin might go to the moon”. This is not a strategy, it is a gamble.Summary and Final ThoughtsCrypto CFDs offer exciting opportunities, but they also demand discipline, structure, and adaptability to manage risk effectively. The lessons from other markets still apply, including knowing what moves your market, having an unambiguous plan, and building confidence slowly as you execute both entry and exits.Whether you're trading Bitcoin or branching into altcoins, the goal isn’t just fast profits, but consistent, well-managed decisions over time with consistency in action so you can see what is working and what perhaps isn’t. As with all trading, performance evaluation is critical; only through effectively doing this can you refine what you are doing to move towards the crypto trade you can become.
