市场资讯及洞察

The "Santa Claus Rally" is a well-documented seasonal phenomenon in financial markets where stock prices often rise during a specific period at the end of the year. While widely discussed, it is frequently misunderstood or oversimplified. This article provides a detailed examination of the Santa Claus Rally, including what it is, why it happens, common misconceptions, its historical trends, and a close look at the factors influencing the markets in 2024.

What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus Rally refers to a pattern of stock market gains observed during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. This seven-day window, now an established market belief, was first identified by Yale Hirsch, who documented the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon in the 1972 edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

It has since become one of the most recognized seasonal patterns in financial markets, has historically delivered positive returns across major indices, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The phenomenon stands out because of its precise timing and consistent performance, making it distinct from broader year-end trends. Key Characteristics: Defined Timing: The rally occurs between December 26 and January 2, excluding earlier December market activity.

There is a common misconception that it may occur earlier we will discuss this later, Short-Term Nature: It is a brief but significant period, often viewed as a sentiment gauge for markets not only during but subsequent to this defined period. Predictive Potential: A strong or weak rally can sometimes hint at market behaviour in the early months of the new year. Why Does the Santa Claus Rally Happen?

The rally is driven by a combination of market psychology and market dynamics. While no single factor is definitive, the interplay of several influences creates favourable conditions for this pattern occurring. With these factors we will not only define each in turn but suggest the potential impact on such a rally.

Tax-Loss Harvesting Winds Down Definition: Tax-loss harvesting is when investors sell underperforming assets to offset capital gains, reducing their taxable income. Impact: This selling pressure, which weighs on markets earlier in December, subsides by the end of the month. With the selling completed, buying often resumes, pushing prices higher.

Holiday Cheer and Optimism The festive season fosters consumer and investor optimism. Strong holiday spending boosts confidence in consumer-driven sectors, and this optimism often spills over into the broader market. Investors may feel more inclined to take risks, leading to upward momentum in stock prices.

Institutional Repositioning Definition: Fund managers adjust portfolios at year-end to present favourable performance in annual reports. Impact: This often involves buying top-performing stocks, which adds upward pressure to the markets during the rally period. Low Trading Volumes Many institutional and retail investors take time off during the holidays, leading to lighter trading volumes.

In this environment, even modest buying activity can significantly impact prices. New Year Positioning As the year ends, investors reassess their portfolios, positioning for anticipated trends in the coming year. This activity often results in fresh buying, particularly in growth sectors.

Historical Performance relating to the Santa Claus Rally The Santa Claus Rally has proven to be a reliable phenomenon, delivering positive returns in most years. On average, the S&P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5% during this period. Historical Trends: The rally has produced gains in approximately 75% of years since it was first documented.

Its absence has occasionally been a precursor to weak market performance in January or even the full year. Key Examples: In 2008, amidst the global financial crisis, the Santa Claus Rally still materialized, providing a brief positive momentum during a challenging year. In 2015, the rally failed to occur, and markets experienced heightened volatility in January, highlighting its potential predictive significance.

Common Misconceptions about Santa Claus Rallies Despite its prominence, the Santa Claus Rally is often misunderstood. Some of the most common misconceptions include: Timing Confusion? Many believe the rally spans the entire month of December or starts before Christmas.

In reality, it is strictly confined to December 26–January 2. Any other December market move will be due to other market forces, Assumption of Guaranteed Gains? While historically frequent, the rally is not guaranteed.

External shocks or weak economic data can disrupt the pattern. Driven Solely by Retail Investors? A commonly held myth suggests that holiday bonuses or retail investor activity drives any such the rally.

In fact, as referenced above, institutional actions like window dressing and repositioning play a larger role. Overlap with Other Effects? Seasonal trends like the December Effect (general market strength in December) and the January Effect (small-cap outperformance in January) are distinct phenomena often conflated with the Santa Claus Rally.

Do we see a Santa Claus Rally Across World Markets? The Santa Claus Rally is most studied and reported for U.S. markets. While similar patterns may occur globally, their timing and drivers vary, but there is some evidence that may be of interest to those investing outside the US. 1.

European Markets United Kingdom (FTSE 100): The FTSE 100 has shown a tendency to perform well during the last week of December and the first week of January, much like the U.S. markets. A 2017 study by Schroders found that the FTSE 100 recorded positive returns in December approximately 78% of the time since 1986, with an average return of 2.4%. Germany (DAX): The DAX also tends to see year-end strength, reflecting broader European investor sentiment and repositioning similar to the U.S.

German equities benefit from strong consumer activity during the holiday season and institutional adjustments at year-end. 2. Asia-Pacific Markets Japan (Nikkei 225): The Nikkei 225 often experiences a "New Year Rally," which includes strong performance in the last few trading days of December and the first week of January. This trend is partially driven by institutional investors repositioning their portfolios for the new fiscal year (starting in April) and holiday optimism.

China (Shanghai Composite): While the Santa Claus Rally is less pronounced in Chinese markets, some evidence suggests a year-end rally occurs due to investor repositioning before the Lunar New Year (which falls between January and February). Australia (ASX 200): The Australian market often mirrors the Santa Claus Rally, with December being one of the best-performing months historically. Tax-related incentives also play a role, as Australia's fiscal year ends in June, leading to a broader seasonal trend than in the U.S.

Key Metrics to Watch Several indicators can help identify whether a Santa Claus Rally is likely or already underway, I have identified FIVE that may be particularly noteworthy: Market Sentiment Indicators Tools like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the VIX (Volatility Index) reveal investor mood. Declining fear levels, as measured by the VIX, often support rally conditions. Sector Performance Growth-oriented sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary tend to lead during this period, reflecting holiday-driven optimism.

Trading Volume Trends Low volumes are typical during the holidays. However, any surge in buying activity can amplify upward price movements. Macroeconomic Data Economic indicators such as inflation figures or employment data can heavily influence sentiment.

Positive surprises may bolster the rally, while negative shocks could dampen it. Market Breadth A strong rally typically sees broad participation, with a high percentage of advancing stocks. Narrow gains driven by a few large caps indicate weaker underlying momentum.

What About This Year? As we approach the Santa Claus Rally period for 2024, several factors suggest potential market behaviour: Federal Reserve Actions The Fed has been gradually lowering interest rates, with the target range now at 4.5%–4.75%. While this policy supports market liquidity, concerns about persistent core inflation (hovering around 2.7%–2.8%) may lead to cautious policymaking in December.

Future rate cuts remain contingent on positive economic data. Market Performance The S&P 500 has seen year-to-date gains exceeding 27%, recently achieving record highs. This reflects robust investor confidence, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading the charge.

Strong earnings reports, such as Lululemon's 15.9% surge, underscore the strength of consumer-driven stocks. Economic Indicators Employment remains resilient, with November adding 227,000 jobs, though the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2%. This stabilization signals a soft landing for the economy.

Holiday retail sales projections are strong, if there are additional indications that his may be widespread, it may feed into positive reporting of Q4 earning due in January, this may continue the buoyancy of current market sentiment over the festive period, Geopolitical Factors Trade tensions, including potential new tariffs, introduce uncertainty. These policies could lead to inflationary pressures, dampening consumer spending. Any escalation in existing global conflicts, notably the Middle East situation may also obviously impact quickly and significantly on sentiment.

Investor Sentiment Despite high valuations, optimism remains buoyant, supported by historical patterns favouring December as a strong month for equities. However, caution is warranted given current market highs and the potential for market participants deciding valuations are high enough for right now. Summary The Santa Claus Rally remains a fascinating and historically consistent market phenomenon, driven by a mix of seasonal optimism, institutional actions, and economic conditions.

To stay on top of what is happening during this interesting period in markets may offer opportunity as well as inform risk management, For 2024, the stage appears set for a potential rally, with favourable monetary policy, strong market performance, and resilient economic indicators providing support. However, investors should monitor inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment closely as the year draws to a close. Although primarily described in relation to US markets, there is evidence of similar phenomenon in other world markets which we have briefly referenced also.

Understanding the drivers and metrics of the Santa Claus Rally can help investors navigate this unique market period with confidence and insight.

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最近关注时事的朋友想必都目睹了韩国这场政治危机。韩国总统尹锡悦在10月3日晚间忽然宣布全国戒严，宣布要“肃清反国家势力”，这是自韩国1987年民主化转型以来首次由总统宣布戒严，并且还是在没有社会和政治动荡的和平时期。虽然仅6小时之后，总统被弹劾，被迫依国会决议解除戒严，但是这反映了韩国执政党和在野党的权力斗争已经达到极端程度，在总统府与政治丑闻关联的发酵下，政治的极化与军方的介入已经严重影响了民主制度和各项改革措施的推进。美国白宫当然第一时间表达关切，在全球化和政治联盟的背景下，韩国国内政治危机已经演变为国际焦点。

当然，我既不懂政治，也不敢妄议政治，但不妨大胆预测后面局势演变：整体上，大概率局势还是维持互相对峙，但不会全面升级，各方力量寻求微妙平衡点。但需要监控以下转折点：1.美国态度将影响危机走向，如果美国态度强硬，可能加速危机升级；2.政府与反对派的谈判进展，关系到本次危机是否能以表面上的和平化解；3.朝韩纷争的局势变化，会严重影响到韩国“攘外必先安内”的实施尺度。这次韩国政治动荡我们可能没有很强烈的感受，但却会影响金融市场波动从而影响我们的投资交易。

在韩国政局突变后，韩国金融市场出现明显的避险性抛售潮。从股市表现看，代表韩国市场的ETF基金大幅下挫，iShares MSCI韩国ETF单日跌超5%，创下近4个月以来最大单日跌幅。从市场结构来看，外资持仓比例较高的科技和出口导向型企业受冲击最明显。韩国作为全球最重要的半导体生产基地，控制约37%的10纳米以下的芯片生产，三星电子、海力士等龙头企业在伦敦市场的股价已经出现下跌。债市方面比股市反应更温和些，这与韩央行11月意外降息有关，但外资或理解为经济下行的被动降息而加速撤离韩国债市，从而推高韩国国债收益率。汇市方面，美元兑韩元飙到2年新高。从目前市场反应来看，在宣布戒严令之后，美元兑韩元一度升到1430，反映了当下市场对政局突变的即时反应和避险情绪的集中释放。相反日元、美元、瑞士法郎呈现避险特征被动升值。短期来看，韩元汇率仍面临下行压力，在局势彻底明朗化之前，市场避险情绪仍然浓厚，对黄金依旧是利好。区域市场方面呈现连锁反应，日韩之间紧密的供应链关系或对日本消费电子、半导体、汽车零部件等板块造成冲击，戒严事件发生后，日股和港股已经发生波动，国内北向资金出现净流出迹象，如果后续局势得不到有效缓解，可以采用超跌做空的对冲策略、或降低相关板块的风险敞口来回避过大风险。但需要特别注意的是，本次戒严事件引发的恐慌性抛售，主要源于市场情绪，而非基本面的恶化，尤其是一些优质企业，可能反而是阶段性补仓机会，随着局势不断明朗，超跌修复的可能性也会比较大。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

With 2024 fast approaching its conclusion we thought it best to have a really good deep dive into where the Australian economy sits and therefore where the opportunities and risks are for 2025. It's pretty clear that things are soft to say the least but there are signs the household is stirring. Government spending is remaining elevated, inflation is moderating but growth is poor.

So let's dig into the data that matters The Consumer Retail sales saw a solid lift in October 2024, growing by 0.6% month on month (MoM) and 3.4% year on year (YoY)—the strongest annual growth since May 2023 and that is before we see the full picture of Black Friday sales which are on track for a record print with estimates as high as $7.2 billion for the period. This improvement indicates that consumers are starting to spend some of the Stage 3 tax cuts introduced in mid-2024. We should point out that a significant portion of the Stage 3 tax relief appears to be going into savings rather than immediate consumption.

Household deposits surged by 8.3% YoY reinforcing the notion that Australians are prioritising financial security over spending. This has been reinforced by the latest GDP figures – more on that later However what’s also telling heading into the end of the year is consumer sentiment has rebounded although modestly. We will say it's not a high bar as consumer sentiment was at levels not seen since the pandemic.

But it is picking up and that must be seen as a positive. Wage growth appears to be slowing, a weaker signal despite continued strength in employment figures. All this creates a mixed picture of the consumer for 2025.

We expect a gradual recovery in spending as rate cuts are likely in 2025, the full effect of the Stage 3 tax cuts hit full levels ($23 billion to be exact which is about 0.8% of GDP) and the Federal Government gives out more handouts with an election at hand. This is likely to support consumption over the full year however it’s not going to create an immediate boom. We will be monitoring consumer staples and discretionary sectors for signs of movement in the early part of the second quarter.

The Private Side of credit Private credit growth continues to surprise on the upside, something that is likely to keep the RBA up at night. October’s 0.6% MoM increase was above expectations and that led to YoY growth being up a staggering 6.1%—the fastest rate since May 2023 and this after 13 rates over the previous year. This growth is mainly down to housing and overall credit growth picking up significantly.

However, credit growth appears to be nearing its peak, likely to plateau around 6.5% y/y in the coming months. Several factors signal moderation ahead: Business Investment: Surveys show a downgrade in capital expenditure intentions. Home Loans: Demand is likely to stabilise as dwelling price growth flattens.

But the RBA cutting rates may change the trajectory later in the year Personal Credit: Slowing household borrowing suggests cautious consumption and a switch back to savings which manifested in Household deposits growing by 1.3% MoM in October seeing the annual growth in savings to 8.3%strongest pace since mid-2022. Housing Market Shows Signs of Cooling Dwelling prices are clearly losing momentum. November prices edged up just 0.1% MoM—the weakest monthly gain since January 2023—while annual growth moderated to 5.5%, the slowest since September 2023.

The number of dwelling sales also weakened sharply, though some of this reflects temporary reporting distortions. Any sort of recovery is projected only after the RBA begins cutting rates, which again is likely to be in the latter half of 2025. This cooling trend aligns with broader economic signals of moderation in housing demand.

This is a problem for the Bank and REIT sectors. The multiples in these two sectors are at historically high levels. The fundamentals backing banks in particular are starting to look shaky as loan growth is stagnant and house prices are falling in 2025.

Will the bank lead recovery continue next year? That is our question for the market. The Economy and all the rest GDP – is faltering there is no doubt about that now.

Figures to the end of September showed, Australia’s real GDP expanded by just 0.3% QoQ and 0.8% YoY well below the consensus 0.4% and 1.1% expected. This is a materially disappointing outcome and has triggered a new cyclical low, not seen (excluding the pandemic) since December 1991. The questions from the GDP figures are vast and need to be unpacked.

Any recovery in subsequent forward quarters is expected to be modest. As we discussed earlier, households and businesses are grappling with structurally higher cost bases, the need for increased savings and a peak in credit - this cannot be fully offset by potential easing of monetary policy. The RBA has a forecast 1.5% YoY for the final quarter of 2024.

Achieving this would require a significant 0.8% QoQ expansion, which seems increasingly unlikely given current economic dynamics and even if we take into consideration the Black Friday sales. A miss on this target could force the RBA to revise down its short-term growth outlook. Key Drivers Behind Weak Economic Performance on the Headline.

Household Sector Strains: The household sector remains weak, with aggregate spending declining slightly in Q3. Rising costs and weak income growth are pressuring budgets, curbing consumption, and keeping the sector in a vulnerable state. Contributed 0.0% in the quarter.

Business Investment Slows: Business investment softened further, reflecting heightened caution amid economic uncertainty and higher operating costs and tight labour markets in areas of need. All saw 0.0% contribution in the quarter Surprising Uptick in Dwelling Investment: Dwelling investment provided an unexpected positive contribution, rebounding slightly from a weak base. However, this increase is unlikely to represent a sustained trend given broader headwinds in the housing market.

Public Sector Reliance: Countercyclical public demand was the sole driver of growth, accounting for all the economic expansion in Q3 and the past year. Think about that – the only reason Australia didn’t have a negative quarter was from government spending. While this has supported the labour market and provided a buffer to broader weakness, over-reliance on public spending raises major sustainability concerns.

Per Capita recession and Productivity Woes GDP Per Capita Declines: The headline GDP numbers mask a persistent decline in per capita growth. Q3 marked the seventh consecutive quarter of contraction, leaving GDP per capita 2.2% below its Q2 2022 level, that is a horrible story. Productivity Drag: Productivity remains a significant weak spot, further undermining economic resilience.

Falling terms of trade have compounded this issue, leading to a marked drop in living standards. Real net national disposable income per capita has declined in five of the last six quarters, echoing the negative income shock seen during past terms-of-trade retracements. Compensation Pressures: Weak productivity has translated into falling compensation for employees, which in turn is easing unit labour cost pressures.

However, this decline in compensation is exacerbating household financial challenges, limiting their ability to support growth through spending. Where does this leave the RBA? The RBA faces a complex balancing act.

Weak economic growth underscores the need for interest rate cuts to support demand. However, persistently high inflation keeps the central bank in a cautious stance, limiting its room to manoeuvre. Additionally, the labour market remains tight, partly due to public sector demand, which inadvertently keeps inflationary pressures elevated.

This dynamic complicates the RBA’s ability to deliver meaningful monetary easing in the near term. So where does this leave markets for 2025? Structural Growth Concerns The Australian economy remains heavily reliant on two unsustainable drivers: Public Sector Spending: While critical in the current environment, excessive dependence on government expenditure highlights a lack of private sector dynamism.

Population Growth: Expanding population numbers are bolstering headline GDP but masking underlying weaknesses in per capita terms. Without addressing these structural imbalances, along with improving productivity, achieving robust and sustainable economic growth will remain elusive. We are therefore mindful of sectors that have run ahead.

The ASX 200 has just printed 4 record all-time highs in the past 8 trading days. Momentum indicators are running hot and overbought signals are flashing. Couple this with the economy falling into the end of the year. 2025 is likely to be a story or two – a recalibration in the first half – followed by a recharge in the second half.

With geopolitics thrown in and other issues. Volatility is likely to be back with a vengeance in 2025.

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2024也终于走到了尾声，在经过了“黑五“和美国”网购星期一“后，圣诞消费季也如火如荼地来临了，这也代表着市场和投资者对于零售业的关注度即将达到了高点。从电商巨头到传统零售商，这一季节的表现直接影响相关企业股价，也反映了消费市场的复苏程度。

根据Adobe Analytics的数据，2024年“黑五”期间，美国消费者的在线支出达到103亿美元，同比增长3.5%，但低于去年的6.5%。与此同时，“网购星期一”在线消费额为121亿美元，同比增长5.2%，略超市场预期。这种增速放缓反映了高通胀背景下消费者行为的变化，尽管10月的CPI年率为3.1%，已较去年显著下降，但实际购买力仍受到一定通胀的影响。消费者更倾向于在打折力度大的促销活动中集中采购，而非持续性购买，类别上也更偏向于必需品而不是非必需品。如果我们关注美国零售业的几家龙头，就会发现他们的表现有着显著的分化：比如我们首先来看亚马逊（AMZN），亚马逊的股价自11月以来上涨了6%，Q3财报也显示第三季度营收同比增长13%，净利润大幅提升至94亿美元，而这些亮眼的表现主要是受益于其电商业务的强劲表现，以及AWS云计算服务的持续增长。并且分析师预计，亚马逊在圣诞消费季的在线销售额将同比增长8%-10%，但考虑到物流成本上升可能也会对利润率构成压力。

接下来我们看一看沃尔玛（WMT），沃尔玛股价在11月基本持平，显示市场对其作为防御性股票的认可。并且Q3营收增长5.3%，同店销售额也稳步上升。沃尔玛稳健的表现则是发挥了作为折扣零售巨头的优势，以大规模的打折促销在高通胀环境中吸引了更多价格敏感型消费者。另一家与之有着相反表现的就是塔吉特（TGT），同样作为大规模的连锁零售商，塔吉特的股价自10月以来下跌近8%，而主要原因就是库存积压和利润率承受的压力过大，这也是很多高利润依赖公司在高通胀现状下面临的难题，尤其是零售业，反映出消费者对非必需品需求的削减。Q3财报当中显示同店销售额同比下降5%，而公司决定通过大规模且大幅度的促销活动和供应链优化来挽回市场份额，如果可以在圣诞季落实这一策略，还是有机会带动短期收入的增长。

上面我们提到的这几家美国零售业龙头企业的特点在澳洲市场也有所体现，作为澳洲本土零售巨头，Coles（ASX:COL）和Woolworths（ASX:WOW）在食品零售领域的表现依然稳健。数据显示，Woolworths的节日食品销量同比增长约6%，Coles也在自有品牌产品推广方面取得了显著成效。而11月期间，两家企业的股价分别上涨3%和3.2%，反映了投资者对其稳定盈利能力的信心。但高端零售方面依旧受到不小的压力，像前文提到的高通胀导致的非必需品的需求减少使得Myer和David Jones都在节日期间面临挑战。但Myer通过更胜一筹的推广力度和消费者体验优化实现了销售额增长约3%，但David Jones因对奢侈品消费需求疲软，其销售表现逊于预期。除了个股的表现，零售行业相关的ETF的走势也成为投资者关注的焦点。SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Retail ETF都在过去的一个月形成了上涨趋势，反映了市场对于零售行业还是保持整体乐观的预期。即将到来的圣诞消费季的表现不仅是零售行业的年度指标，也是金融市场投资逻辑的重要参考。通过今天前文提到的内容，我们可以看到零售业的未来发展趋势可能会呈现以下特征：高通胀环境下，消费者的价格敏感性增强，更倾向于买打折力度大的商品，零售商将进一步依赖折扣和促销活动来吸引消费者，价格竞争加剧，但这也会压缩零售商们的利润空间。

无论是亚马逊的电商模式还是沃尔玛或者Myer的BOPIS模式（线上下单、门店提货），技术驱动与线上线下融合将成为零售商的核心竞争力。西方国家长时间以来的“黑五“，”圣诞季“等增长潜力趋于饱和，未来的增量可能更多来自亚洲等新兴市场。中国“双十二”电商节和圣诞消费的融合就是一个区域市场分化的典型案例。尽管高通胀和经济放缓带来了压力，但从数据中可以看出，消费者的韧性和企业的创新正在推动行业向新的常态过渡，在这种时刻对于投资者而言，及时洞察市场分化与企业策略是捕捉年末零售行业机会的关键。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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2025年会有很多不确定的因素。对于澳洲华人来说，首先就是降息，澳洲究竟什么时候开始降息，降多少，能对我们的信贷和消费力有多少影响。澳洲的经济结构是否继续转型，还是维持现状，毕竟全球都在奔向新一代生产力迭代，而澳洲的科技企业不太争气，制造业更不争气。中美关系紧张，可能间接对澳元产生负面影响，但是对中澳关系和贸易应该是利好的。宏观来说，2025年，澳洲概况我认为从政治经济和央行三个维度概况，政治上中澳贸易继续恢复。经济上，稳定的态势下，寻求一定程度的创新和转型，不继续把资金丢到房地产上，而是进入区块链、新能源等行业。央行持续降息，让老百姓有余钱消费，基础经济环境改善。

再看中国，中国目前面临严峻的经济传递问题，这种传递是70后把企业交给职业经理人或下一代，也是应该有更多的就业机会传递给更多的大学生的，是薪资水平逐年递增的传递，是新生儿水平逐年稳定递增的传递。所以，在特朗普上台开搞贸易战，中国经济的对外出口可能继续放缓，就好比一个内卷的压力炉，原来还有几个通风口，目前通风口一个一个的被堵上了。全球化的路径回不去了。同时，中国内部经济总量增速放缓，内外都有问题，未来的游戏规则将会变成存量市场，也就是再分配。因为创造产生超额价值的难度大幅度增加，就变成了再分配。过去改革开放30年，大家参与的是财富增长，未来3-10年，在经济结构和经营模式不变的情况下，大家参与的是再分配。避开投资中产消费或服务中产的行业或股票。中产陨落去开滴滴和送外卖，未来每年还有一千多万大学毕业生。因此，中国资产布局中，能参与的，一定是不得不涨的标的。这种不得不涨分为两部分，一部分是刚需，有定价权，有一点垄断能力的，比如中药材，部分成分被部分公司控制。另一部分是预期刚需，比如预期中国未来3年要达到什么样的芯片技术，有哪几家公司最有可能达到这个预期刚需，哪怕最终没达到，但没关系，预期能达到就行。其他各种债呀，房呀，中小企业呀，都会比较艰难，更建议大家投现金流比较安全稳定的资产，又具有不可替代性和一定的垄断性。

最后，看一下美国，特朗普上台后，金融市场波动率会继续增加。对于做短周期交易的投资者可能会是利好。而特朗普比较看重的几点，是美元强势，股市强势，以及推动经济改革，加快经济复苏和发展。最近很火的以为首席分析师付鹏说到，世界的经济运行机制，最顶层是意识形态，中间是政治，底层是市场和资产。他说的我是比较认可的。目前特朗普上台，就是意识形态的变化，在经济，利率，财政等各方面，全部达成共识，怎么让美国赚钱怎么搞，怎么让美国人有钱就怎么搞，很务实，这就是美国目前达成的新的意识形态。不管美国未来怎么搞，相对确定性高的几点，就是硅谷新贵们继续起飞，纳斯达克继续创出新高的概率很大。如果大家觉得科技股风险高，可以考虑高分红的股票，比如电信公司T，比如烟草公司MO，MO的分红一般超过8%，属于旱涝保收，不受加息降息和经济周期的影响。如果对特朗普的时代资产价格走势拿捏不准，那么垄断性的民生类企业，就是比较稳妥的选择。

最后，黄金大概率很难大幅度上涨，政治上，特朗普主张搞经济，少打仗。经济和央行上，企业降税，央行降息，买黄金保值的人就开始减少，大家更多开始从事生意和其他投资。另外，被更多的区块链和其他金融产品分散了一部分投资者。澳元人民币我认为大概率最终会上涨到4.9，或者中间要到一次4.9。理由是，无论美国政府还是中国政府，都不会离开矿产，因为核心都是要发展经济的。人民币贬值已经在进行中，所以一个稳定，一个贬值，自然澳元人民币升值概率更大。除此之外，还是要警惕市场波动率上升带来的不确定性风险和机遇。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

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12月交易正式开启，本周非农周又将影响市场走向，牵动美联储降息进程。鲍威尔将接受纽约时报采访，前些日子鹰派发言可能延续。黎以停战形同虚设，表面上停火实则危机四伏，以色列自身需要休整而已，随时可能再战，风险降级也在上周被市场消化。周五美股继续上涨，三大股指均收下阳线，周级别道指标普再创新高，纳指逼近前高，本轮罗素2000也没有掉队，美股牛市形态更为成熟。

AI板块可能依靠AI应用更为广泛有效而使得AI应用层公司绩效更高，进而带动新一波AI上涨。摩根大通撤销对特斯拉诉讼，特斯拉股价周五大涨，本轮上冲有望挑战$400大关。英伟达财报后连续回调已经完毕，技术形态符合前浪底支撑和反转十字星。美国核电概念周五普涨，尽管国际铀价未能走出反弹，但美国对核电的需求以及未来布局有目共睹，加上特朗普宣称对加拿大加征25%关税，或对已经遇到铀供应危机的美国更添隐忧，在俄罗斯限制对美国铀矿出口的前提下，若加拿大再因关税问题影响对美铀矿供应，那么铀价将迎来大幅上升，而美国本土的核电企业也将被大幅提振。NNE逐渐稀释增发利空，后期现金流充裕，加上SMR和OKLO是目前美国成长型核技术热门标的。美股周五的普涨也将带动今天澳指上行，本周澳大利亚GDP预计较上次公布数据有所反弹，若符合预期将来到1.1%增速，更为澳联储寻找更合适时机降息提供了宝贵的时间，但澳洲经济实际情况压力较大，不出意外25年初也将迎来首降。

美元指数继续稳步回落，符合中期预判，金价稳步反弹重回2650，黎以停战消息已被消化，后期只可能因突发事件增加走火风险，俄乌24年还看不到停战时机，因此12月金价已经缺乏利空因素。恐慌指数继续缓慢下行也符合预判，随着圣诞元旦临近，股市更加容易进入节奏性上升时期。原油继续回落，美油回到68美元平台，本周欧佩克将公布是否延长减产时间，不出意外的话老套路会重现，也就是继续保持减产，油价很有可能再次走出重回70美元的反弹波段。外汇方面澳美如期保持在0.65平台以上，美日兑现上周预判回到150以下，中期下行空间还很大，澳日也跌破了98平台，随着日元息差长期预计越来越小，美日和澳日震荡走低也越来越明显。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师