市场资讯及洞察

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随着人工智能（AI）技术的快速发展，全球范围内AI专利的数量呈现爆发式增长，尤其是在AI芯片和大模型领域。OpenAI、英伟达（NVIDIA）等科技巨头通过专利积累，巩固了市场地位，但这也引发了关于市场垄断的担忧。近期，OpenAI进行了高层管理的调整，并在最新更新中披露了其对欧盟AI法案的核心承诺，这些变动为AI领域的未来走向增添了更多的不确定性。一、AI专利激增：推动创新还是形成垄断？近年来，AI领域的专利申请量急剧上升，特别是在大模型训练和AI芯片开发方面，OpenAI和英伟达通过技术优势形成了显著的市场主导地位。据华尔街分析师估计，AI芯片市场在未来五年内可能突破千亿美元。这种专利的积累不仅帮助公司在市场中站稳脚跟，也使新兴企业很难进入这一领域。OpenAI与微软的合作进一步巩固了其在大模型领域的领先优势。尽管专利可以推动技术进步，但集中在少数企业手中的专利池也可能抑制市场竞争。华尔街的分析指出，如果专利壁垒过于坚固，创新速度可能会减缓，尤其是中小型企业在面对巨头的垄断时，创新机会可能被限制。

二、OpenAI的高层换血与公司转型近期，OpenAI经历了重要的管理层变动，首席技术官（CTO）离职，CEO山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）获得了7%的公司股份。这一变化标志着OpenAI正加速向盈利机构转型。奥特曼在掌控更多股权后，公司的战略重点也变得更加明确——不仅要继续在AI领域保持技术领先，还要将技术更有效地转化为商业价值。这次高层调整反映了公司内部战略的转型。OpenAI从一家非盈利性质的研究机构逐渐转向更商业化的模式，并且将大模型技术推向更多的行业应用。根据业内分析，OpenAI未来可能会在医疗、金融等垂直领域探索新的商业机会，而这些领域的技术应用也会带来更多的专利布局。三、OpenAI的AI法案核心承诺：规避风险还是顺势而为？在OpenAI最近的一次更新中，公司透露已签署了《欧盟人工智能法案》（EU AI Act）中的三项核心承诺。这些承诺包括推动AI治理战略、确保AI系统的合规性，并加强员工的AI素养。这标志着OpenAI正在积极应对全球监管环境的变化，特别是在欧盟等地对AI系统提出的严格要求下，OpenAI展示了其对合规和透明度的重视。欧盟AI法案旨在通过立法手段规范AI技术的开发和应用，防止大型科技公司滥用市场优势。OpenAI的举措不仅是响应法案的合规要求，也表明公司愿意在未来与欧盟保持密切合作，以降低潜在的法律风险。尽管如此，行业观察者认为，这类监管措施能否真正遏制科技巨头的垄断还需要时间观察。

四、市场展望与金融机构的看法在金融市场中，OpenAI的转型与其对监管的应对措施引起了广泛关注。华尔街分析师指出，尽管欧盟的监管压力增加，但OpenAI等公司凭借其技术和市场积累，仍然能够在未来几年继续主导AI领域。低利率环境为这些科技巨头提供了更多融资机会，推动了研发和技术扩展，特别是在大模型和AI芯片方面的投资。与此同时，投资者也在密切关注全球各大经济体的监管趋势，特别是在AI专利集中与市场竞争公平性之间的平衡问题上。OpenAI的高层变动和欧盟AI法案的核心承诺让市场看到了这些公司在技术创新之外，还在积极寻求与监管框架的融合。这也意味着，未来AI市场的竞争将不仅仅依赖于技术优势，合规和治理能力也将成为决定企业成败的重要因素。

结论：科技巨头的未来是创新与监管的博弈AI领域的专利积累既推动了技术进步，也带来了潜在的垄断风险。OpenAI通过高层换血和加速商业化转型，展现了其在未来市场中的竞争力。而欧盟AI法案的监管措施则对这些科技巨头提出了更高的合规要求。未来，市场将继续观察这些公司如何在创新与合规之间找到平衡点，以适应日益严格的全球监管环境。尽管面临挑战，OpenAI和英伟达等公司仍然有望凭借其技术积累在AI领域保持领先，在长期发展来看，依旧是潜力很大的一个板块。投资者应密切关注监管政策的变化，以及这些企业在应对挑战时的灵活策略，以更好地把握未来市场机会。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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美光科技（ MU.NAS）今早在美股盘后发布了2024财年Q4也就是最后一期财报，整体业绩超出公司指引以及华尔街预期，盘后股票大涨14%报109美元，美光在6月份触及历史新高156美元左右后进入下降调整阶段，9月中旬日线图MA50穿破MA200形成死叉，股价触及85美元支撑位后反弹，本次优秀财报进一步提振了股价。

2024财年收官季度财报要点如下：股东回报方面，第四季度稀释后EPS $1.18 ，助推公司全财年稀释后的每股盈余达到$1.3，全面超预期。电话会议中提到，在加大2025年资本支出的前提下，经营现金流（季度34亿美元，全年85亿美元）中44亿美元将继续用于股票回购，加上股息总计59亿美元将回馈股东，这也反映出管理层对于未来盈利能力和规模经济优化的信心。收入方面，美光公司2024财年总收入达251亿美元，同比暴增62%。第四季度总收入78亿美元，同比上升14%，好于公司指引（76亿美元）。本季度收入继续回升，主要还是受公司核心业务DRAM和NAND业务增长拉动，其中供需环境改善带来的存储芯片价格提升是主要因素。利润方面，美光公司在第四季度实现净利润13.4亿美元，高于市场预期，毛利率36.5%，好于市场预期最高值35.5%。本季度毛利提升主要由于产品定价有15-17%的改善，所以我们可以看到存货绝对值虽然增高，但存货周转率的提升也推动了毛利改善。净利润增长167%达到8.87亿美元，经营费用中的刚性费用（主要指行政费用）占比仍然较低，侧面助长净利润增长弹性。分业务板块来看，DRAM和NAND仍然是公司最重要的两大收入来源，两者收入合计占比高达99%，本季度两项业务都有不同程度的回暖。细分来看，DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）是公司最大的收入来源，占比达7成；NAND（闪存）包括SSD和U盘，占比约3成。公司预计2025年由于AI需求旺盛，HBM市场规模将由2023年的40亿美元增至250亿美元，2025年初公司将加大量产HBM3E 12H产品。美光公司带有明显的周期性，主要体现在存储芯片市场的供需关系直接影响产品的定价走向。供不应求时，产品价格高，营业收入就高；供大于求时，产品价格下滑，营业收入不佳，但由于固定成本，利润下滑更显著。从2022财年Q4开始，美光DRAM价格暴跌，导致营收急剧缩窄，2023年9月，随着DRAM价格企稳恢复，公司基本面逐年改善， 2024财年Q1美光营收才开始大幅增长（17.86%），然而直到2024财年Q3公司净利润才扭亏为盈，也推动股价创下新高。

所以分析美光公司股价潜力的时候，需要特别关注：1. 行业周期性变动趋势；2. 市场份额争夺情况。行业方面，根据TrendForce研报显示，AI驱动下的HBM前景良好，预计DRAM和NANA产业2024年营收年增幅75%和77%，到2025年，营收还可能有51%和29%的增长。根据IDC统计，2024年第二季度全球智能手机连续4个季度正增长，PC出货量连续2个季度正增长。2023年中各大芯片巨头宣布减产而导致的存储芯片价格飞涨，花旗预测2024年DRAM ASP (平均价格) 全年将上涨65%，2025年还会上涨14%。中长期来看，存储芯片增长态势由AI接棒，HBM带来了新的支撑点。

其次，存储芯片市场竞争激烈，从DRAM产业整体来看美光的市场份额是万年老三，第一第二分别是韩国的三星和SK海力士；而在HBM领域，海力士和美光是英伟达HBM的主要供货商，三星刚通过质量认证，预计明年1月才可以进入英伟达的供应链，结合三家的产能规划来看，美光仍然只能拿到1成左右的市场份额，机构预测带来10亿美元的收入增量，收入占比不足5%。电话会议中公司并没有直接回答高盛分析师关于未来3家公司共同竞争造成的影响。我们分析当前市场HBM仍相对短缺的主要原因是三星新品还未实现量产，而随着海力士和三星的产能爬坡、良率提升，市场供需关系可能会由供不应求向供大于求转变，届时，美光市场份额可能会受到挤压，需要继续保持技术创新并提供超预期的表现来催动股价上升。总体来看，美光本财年的业绩表现可以说是力挽狂澜，当前给出的2025年Q1业绩指引也振奋人心，而且美光当前的估值并不高，是性价比不错的选择。按照目前市场上对英伟达四季度Blackwell芯片出货的节奏和销量的不错预期，仍然是值得考虑的标的。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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投资成功的人，是顺势而为，投资困难的人，往往在逆水行舟。

智者不入爱河，出自迪伦，意思是太理智的爱情就不是爱情了。股市也是如此。智者不入股市，愚者为股所困。太理智的股市，只存在于书本中。2024年9月25日，中国股市大反攻，牛市开启，像极了一见钟情，马上步入热恋的新人，不要去做所谓的分析，判断，通通丢到脑后，爱情来了就是来了，感觉对了就对了。A股启动，港股跟随，像是单身久了的小伙子，突然被爱情点燃了，这个时候的我们，要敢于追求，才会有可能性。二者很相似：股市：股市充满了波动和不确定性，价格不断波动，投资者无法完全预测未来的走势。爱情：爱情也同样充满了情感的波动和不确定性，情感的起伏和关系的变化都难以完全掌控。共同点：在这两者中，人们都需要学会应对变化、控制情绪，并保持冷静。股市：成功的投资者往往关注长期价值，忍受短期的市场波动，不轻易被市场情绪左右。爱情：成功的关系需要长期的投入和耐心，过程中可能会有矛盾和挑战，但坚持和沟通是维系关系的关键。共同点：两者都需要耐心和长远的视角，而不是被短期波动影响决策。

股市：高风险带来高回报，但也可能带来巨大损失，投资者需要平衡风险和回报，做出理性的选择。爱情：进入一段感情关系也充满风险——情感投入可能会带来幸福的回报，但也可能面临失望和伤害。共同点：两者都需要平衡风险和回报，并在决策时保持理性，同时也接受可能的失败。股市：在股市中，选择买入和卖出的时机至关重要，买在低点、卖在高点是每个投资者的目标。爱情：爱情中，合适的时机同样重要。对的时间遇到对的人，往往决定了关系是否能成功走远。共同点：在股市和爱情中，时机把握与决策判断能力往往决定最终的结果。

投资与爱情，不存在100%的理性，强扭的瓜不甜，都要顺势而为。感觉对了，要勇于追求，不要犹豫不决。如果担心追的太猛被伤害，可以先试探一下，拉扯一下，投入一点点看看反馈。9月25日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜和证监会主席吴清，国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽等重量级人物纷纷给出重大政策利好，一行一局一会政策组合，一天拉涨China50幅度超过2个月的下跌幅度。具体的政策内容，大家可以上网搜到，核心是：1. 降息2. 降准3. 降房贷利率、降首付利率等4. 货币政策支持股市，共计近万亿资金5. 央行买卖国债6. 提高上市公司价值权重7. 鼓励中小型和各类金融公司参与资本市场整体来说，就是有几万亿资金会进入资本市场。我们小散户，自然是开开心心的坐着国家资本的大船，乘风破浪。感觉牛市要开始了，却好像一个非常钟意的另一半突然出现，对你示好，而你手无足措，这个时候，就试一试，没准就成了。所以，当下的环境，市场流言蜚语很多，大环境不好，好比我们会有疑问，为什么这么优秀的人会喜欢我，会对我有感觉，这是真的吗？不要内耗，跟着感觉走。我们不知道这次的政策刺激，能持续多久，但我们知道，他/她已经在努力的示好，勇敢的表达，并且展现了自己优秀的一面，在情感类的投资中，不试探、不付出，就无法体会到爱的美好，无法体会到投资成功的喜悦。即使经历过挫折，爱与被爱依然是人生中最珍贵的体验。敢于敞开心扉、付出真心，勇于尝试，不论结果如何，都能为人生增添色彩。当然，量力而行，正如感情一样，投资世界中的每次经历都是财富。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its interest rate policy this Thursday. Market participants are widely expecting the rate to remain on hold, but most importantly, the “language” and the “tone” of the statement will be closely watched. It is unlikely that there will be any surprises from the ECB policy meeting and they are expected to maintain the current guidance about ending bond purchases and keeping rates on hold.

Despite being mostly uneventful, it should stay on the Euro traders radar as policymakers have been slightly more hawkish on the underlying inflation pressures recently and some have even highlighted the possibility of bringing forward the timing of the first rate hike. The growing uncertainty around the Italian budget and fiscal position will be the main significant issue that investors will be keen to watch. This week, the European Commission officially rejected Italy’s budget proposal.

The proposal of the deficit is definitely below the 3% EU deficit ceiling, but the EU was hoping that Italy will curb its massive debt given that they are the second largest public government debt pile in Europe after the Greeks. The debt to equity ratio in Italy currently stands at 131.81% of its GDP, and market participants are concerned on the country’s ability to repay its debt. European leaders have ramped up pressure on Italy over its public spending plans and gave unprecedented warnings.

Source: National Institute of Statistics All eyes will, therefore, be on the President Draghi’s comments on Italy’s budget woes to gauge the thoughts on the developments in Italy and the possible effects it may have on the Eurozone economy. Investors will also closely watch how the ECB is balancing the “external” risks that have become more prominent over the coming months: Threat of protectionism Vulnerabilities in the emerging markets Financial Market Volatility

Ideally, as traders, our aim is often to identify potential entries at the start of a new trend (so “first in the queue”) and exit at the end of that trend. Of course, we often will identify a price move where a trend may already be established and are therefore faced with the decision as to “join in” mid-trend (we hope) with the aim of catching the rest of a trend move. The concern of this approach is of course the fear of potentially entering just prior to that trend changing.

There are “clues” we can use, such as candle body/wick size and volume which may help, but also there is a group of indicators termed ‘oscillators’ which work on the idea that there are points in a price move which the underlying asset (be it a Forex pair or CFD) may be overbought (and hence a long trade could be deemed riskier), and oversold (where a short trade may be termed riskier). Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which we covered previous in an article (review "Adding the RSI to your entry or exit trading plan? "), is possibly a more commonly used oscillator for determining oversold and overbought situations, the stochastic although possibly seen as being slightly more complex, does appear to be frequently used by more experienced traders. This article aims to shed some light on how this indicator is used and what it may be showing you relative to price movement.

What is the stochastic trying to tell us? As with the RSI the Stochastic is an oscillator (whose value can theoretically lie between 0-100) which has identified key levels which may indicate whether a particular asset is overbought or oversold. A move into either of these two “zones” may suggest a trend change is more likely to be imminent.

The key levels are below 20 (oversold) and above 80 (overbought). See below a 30-minute chart for GBP/USD with the stochastic added using the default system settings (we have added horizontal lines from the drawing tools to make the key levels clearer. We will discuss settings later and the additional line but at a simple level, taking the blue line on the stochastic if it moves below 20, then you would be cautious and perhaps avoid entering a short trade (examples A and B), and perhaps avoid entering a long trade if it moves above 80 (see example C).

And the other dotted line? There are two lines that form the stochastic namely: %K (usually a solid line) – In this case blue as previously referenced above. %D (usually a dotted line) and is a moving average of %K (often set as an exponential) Slowing periods may also be set (default is 3). As a rule, the slower (bigger number the less “noisy” i.e. you will see less overbought and oversold conditions).

And how can it be used? a. As an additional entry criteria “tick” As referenced earlier, for entry, traders may use this as an additional tick (when other indicators may suggest entry) to make sure they do not enter a long trade on an overbought currency pair/CFD, or short trade on an oversold currency pair/CFD. b. As a warning to prepare for exit action in an open trade Though less commonly discussed, it would appear logical that if in a long trade for example and the Stochastic moves into an over-bought position this could be a warning to consider exit (more commonly used as a signal to tighten a trailing stop loss) c.

As a primary reversal signal Additionally, some traders may look to buy when moving out of an oversold situation when the EMA dotted line crosses the solid blue line. (and of course, the reverse when overbought). It would be rare to use this in isolation with no other indicators, using increasing volume, and candle change recognition would often be used also. The relatively fast default settings (5,3,3) may merit some review anyway but particularly in this case.

Which settings? As with any indicator you are in control of the settings and what you use for you is of course your choice. With the chart below, we have used the default 5,3,3 and added a 21,7, 7 to illustrate the difference of a less noisy set of perimeters.

In Summary Ultimately, and to finish, it is of course your choice as to which criteria you use for entry and exit. Remember, whatever these are for you, the key lessons of: a. specifically identifying how you are to use the criteria within your plan, b. the importance of forward-testing (as well as back-testing) of any system change, c. and of course, the discipline of following through are ALL critical whether you use the Stochastic, RSI or neither.

The Bank of England on the 3 rd August, will announce whether they will increase, decrease or maintain the key interest for the United Kingdom. In this article we will look ahead with some industry experts and see how the UK economy performed last quarter. Who decides the rates?

Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which is made of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks’s Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Expectations According to Bank of England’s Deputy governor Ben Broadbent it is unlikely that the current interest rate of 0.25% will be raised on 3 rd August as the directions of the UK economy remains unclear. Mr Broadbent is a close ally to the Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who in a recent interview said he was not ready to raise interest rates. “In my opinion, it is a bit tricky at the moment to make a decision (to raise the interest rates).

I am not ready to do it yet”. Bank of England rate history in the last 10 years [caption id="attachment_57430" align="aligncenter" width="445"] Source Bank of England[/caption] Economy The UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 (April to June) 2017. The growth in Quarter 2 was driven mainly by services, which grew by 0.5% compared to 0.1% growth in Quarter 1 (January to March) 2017.

The largest contributors to growth in services were retail trade and film production and distribution. Construction and manufacturing were the biggest downward pulls on quarterly GDP growth after two consecutive quarters of growth. GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.1% during Quarter 2 2017. [caption id="attachment_57414" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: Office for National Statistics[/caption] Financial Markets The Pound The Pound has been at a steady level for the past few weeks, on 16 th July reaching its highest level against the US Dollar since September 2016.

Most experts predict the rates to remain at the same level in the upcoming Bank of England meeting. The markets would have priced in the outcome already. [caption id="attachment_57416" align="aligncenter" width="600"] GBP/USD Source: Go markets MT4[/caption] Since reaching record highs back in May, the FTSE100 has remained around the same level with no major movement in the Index in the recent weeks. [caption id="attachment_57417" align="aligncenter" width="600"] FTSE 100 Source Go Markets MT$[/caption] Remaining Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates in 2017 The New Note On 18 th July 2017, the Bank of England unveiled the new £10 note which will be issued on 14 th September 2017. The £10 note which features author Jane Austen, will be larger than the new £5 note but smaller than the current £10 note and will is made of plastic and has traces of animal fat.

Speaking at Winchester Cathedral, the resting place of Jane Austen, the Governor Mark Carney said “Our banknotes serve as repositories of the country’s collective memory, promoting awareness of the United Kingdom’s glorious history and highlighting the contributions of its greatest citizens”. [caption id="attachment_57421" align="alignleft" width="435"] The New Ten Source Bank Of England[/caption] The new £10 note celebrates Jane Austen’s work. Austen’s novels have a universal appeal and speak as powerfully today as they did when they were first published. The new £10 will be printed on polymer, making it safer, stronger and cleaner.

The note will also include a new tactile feature on the £10 to help the visually impaired, ensuring the nation’s money is as inclusive as possible. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets