市场资讯及洞察

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最新数据显示，美国上周EIA原油库存意外增加54.5万桶，远超彭博社预期的减少62万桶，美国战略储备石油库存达到2022年11月18日当周以来最高。21日晚间，乌克兰基辅空军称俄罗斯首次从阿斯特拉罕地区发射了一枚洲际弹道导弹，消息一出，WTI石油和布伦特石油价格均短线上扬，战争不歇、油价不跌的逻辑再次得到强化。但是自从特朗普当选后，其执政风格使得市场上原油增产预期升温，油价一直处于承压状态。展望2025年，原油价格仍然可能受到供需关系挤压，但是我们认为，油价仍然是美元霸主的基础，油价很难跌破60美元/桶以下。

首先谈谈油价下行压力来源，就是众所周知的供需关系：一是供给侧扰动成为主导，地缘政治仍然。2025年能源市场的主要变动将来自供给侧，而需求相对平稳。当前原油价格的上行风险主要来自于中东地缘冲突，随着以色列对伊朗的打击目标由石油设施转向军事设施，这一风险边际在逐渐收窄。然而，如果OPEC+在12月转向增产，可能导致市场供过于求，布伦特原油价格或降至 60-70 美元/桶区间。二是OPEC+减产力度减弱，市场份额持续下滑。自 2022 年 10 月 OPEC+启动新一轮减产以来，其市场份额持续下降。截至 2024 年 9 月，OPEC+产量减少340 万桶/日，而非 OPEC+国家的产量增长 219 万桶/日，OPEC+市场份额由50.2%降至 46.5%，创下成立以来新低。同时，美国市场份额从 16.1%升至 17.5%。OPEC+的减产协议包括两部分：2023年 4 月宣布的每日 165 万桶减产延续至 2025 年底；2023 年 11 月宣布的每日 220 万桶减产已延续至 2024 年底，但未来走向尚不明朗。尽管如此，OPEC+内部减产执行力度减弱，部分成员国像阿联酋和伊拉克的实际产量高于配额，减产成效有限。在石油增长预期被下调及油价中枢下移的预期下，OPEC+延续现有减产协议可能是最优解。但是如果美国面临再通胀压力，特朗普可能施压中东国家增产，并放宽国内石油开采限制，进一步压低油价。

三是需求增速有限，供需平衡难以维持。2025年全球石油需求增长将大概率保持平稳，与全球经济增速密切相关。根据IMF 的预测，2024 年和 2025 年全球经济增速均为 3.2%。OPEC、IEA 和 EIA 分别预测 2025 年石油需求将增长 128 万桶/日，略高于 2024 年的123 万桶/日。同时，EIA 预计 2025 年非 OPEC+产量将增加 111 万桶/日，与石油需求增长接近。一旦 OPEC+转向增产，市场将面临更加供过于求的局面。四是市场对于特朗普执政促使俄乌停火的预期压低油价。特朗普可能通过谈判缓和俄乌冲突，进一步稳定俄罗斯石油出口。参照2017-2019 年特朗普任期内WTI 原油价格保持在50-60 美元/桶的低位，未来油价或将显著低于拜登任期内的 80 美元/桶水平。

然而，我们仍认为未来油价的跌幅是有限的，支撑油价的几个简单逻辑：第一，油价是石油美元全球霸权的基础。油价主要由三大石油交易所决定：伦敦洲际交易所（ICE）、纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）和迪拜商品交易所（DME）。其中，纽约商品交易所的WTI原油期货价格完全在美国的掌控之下。2023年，WTI原油与布伦特计价体系接轨后，伦敦洲际交易所的布伦特原油期货价格也被美国实质性掌控。同时，通过参股迪拜商品交易所，美国间接影响阿曼原油期货价格，实现对全球石油市场的深度干预。油价如果太低，打压到50美元/桶以下，甚至20-30美元/桶，将动摇石油美元全球强势的根基。第二，共和党有深厚的“石油血统”。如今的美国，是全球最大的石油生产国，也一度超过沙特成为全球最大的石油出口国，所以说， 美国打压油价就是削弱自己的执政基础和砸自己的饭碗。特朗普当选前就向石油产业界大亨争取10亿美元选举赞助，当选后更是提名石油大亨克里斯.赖特担任能源部长予以回报，油价太低，大佬们可能带头不答应。

第三，OPEC+会全力维护石油定价权，与美国展开激烈博弈。沙特依靠石油收入支撑“2030愿景”，实现财政平衡需油价接近95美元/桶；俄罗斯受战争与制裁影响，底线为65美元/桶。低于这一价位，俄罗斯难以支撑战争，沙特的经济转型也将受阻。65美元/桶是OPEC+的“生存线”。综上，2025 年能源市场将受供给侧影响，未来油价高低走向取决于OPEC+沙特、俄罗斯与美国斗争激烈程度，但总体来看，油价中枢下行中仍存在有力支撑，投资者要注意对冲风险。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

There's been plenty made this year about gold's incredible rise to new record levels. A point that gold bugs love to point out. As we sit here gold is trading at around US$2700oz having reached an all-time high that was just shy of US$2900oz.

Thus the question has to be asked: where is the limit? And where too from here for the inert metal? The movements over the last five years clearly suggest there is a structural change going on inside the very definition of what gold is. 14.7% in the last six months. 29.4% year to date. 34.2% in the last 12 months A staggering 82.3% in the last five years.

That is telling a story that is different to the original fundamentals we were taught at university and then as fundamental traders. Let's look at that theory: gold usually trades closely in line with interest rates, particularly US treasuries. As an asset that doesn't offer any yield it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher and usually more desirable when they fall.

That still technically holds true, However what has changed is how much central banks are interfering with that fundamental. Since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine one of the main reactions from the West was to freeze Russian central bank assets. Since that point the Russian central bank particularly has been buying gold as a form of asset store/reserve.

It has also allowed it to avoid the full force of financial sanctions placed on it. But they're not the only ones doing this; emerging market central banks have also stepped up their purchasing of gold since this sanction was put in place and are rapidly increasing their own central bank reserves. Then we look at developed markets central banks.

The likes of the US, France, Germany and Italy have gold holdings that make up to 70% of their reserves are net buyers in the current market. That suggests something else is afoot. Are they concerned about debt sustainability?

Considering the US has $35 trillion of borrowings which is approximately 124% of GDP, do central banks around the world see risk? Considering that many central banks have the bulk of their reserves in US treasuries coupled with the upcoming unconventional administration in the Oval Office this certainly puts gold’s safe haven status in another light. There are truly unknowns with the upcoming trump administration and gold is clear hedging play against potential geopolitical shocks, trade tensions, tariffs, a slowing global economy, deft defaults and even the Federal Reserve subordination risk So what is the outlook for Gold over the coming years and just how high could it go?

Consensus over the next four years is quite divided: by the end of 2024 the consensus is for gold to be at US$2650oz and then easing through 2025 to 2027 to $2475oz. However there are some that are calling for gold to reach the record reached in September this year before surging towards $2900oz the end of 2025 and holding at this level through most of 2026. And right now who could blame this prediction - Gold bugs believe the confidence in gold’s enduring appeal amid a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is a bullish bet.

Expectations for sustained diversification and safe-haven flows do appear structural and with central banks and investors seeking to mitigate risks in an environment characterised by persistent uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and economic volatility. And it's more than just the demand side that's leading the charge. The supply side of the equation further supports our bullish outlook.

Gold mine production is inherently slow to respond to rising prices due to long lead times for exploration, development, and production ramp-up. Furthermore, major producers avoid aggressive hedging strategies, as shareholders typically prefer full exposure to gold’s upside potential. The supportive fundamental backdrop reinforces that demand from both the official sector and consumers will remain robust, while supply-side constraints provide a natural tailwind for price appreciation.

What we as traders need to be aware of is many investors actually believe they've missed the rally and are wary of buying gold at all-time highs. There are some that believe gold is due pull back even a correction as they struggle to make sense of gold in the new world. The divergence away from yields coupled with unknowns out of China and the US has made them nervous to buy this rally.

But we would argue the pullback has probably already happened. If we look at the gold chart, since the US presidential election gold has moved through quite a reasonable downside shift. Dropping from its record all time high to a low $2530oz.

That decline has clearly been cauterised and the momentum now is clearly to the upside. We can see from the chart that spot prices are now testing the September-October consolidation period. Any clean break above these levels would see it going back to testing the head and shoulders pattern at the end of October-November.

This will be the keys to gold for the rest of 2024. But whatever happens in the short term the long-term trend suggests there is more for the gold bugs to delight in.

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11月20日盘后，英伟达（NVIDIA）发布了备受关注的2025财年第三季度财报。公司再次交出亮眼成绩单，营收和盈利均超市场预期。然而，尽管数据优异，这次市场反应却显得冷淡，收跌将近0.8%，但盘后股价一度下跌4%以上。那我们今天的文章就是来多角度看一下英伟达这次财报透露出的信息和这种现象发生的原因。

首先根据财报数据，英伟达第三季度营收达到351亿美元，同比增长17%，超出市场预期的347亿美元。净利润则同比激增至193.12亿美元，反映出其强大的盈利能力。数据中心业务成为增长主力，收入高达308亿美元，同比增长112%，这一表现再次巩固了英伟达在AI芯片市场的领导地位。游戏业务方面，营收达33亿美元，显示出稳定的市场需求。此外，英伟达的毛利率高达74.6%，刷新了历史记录，这得益于其高端AI芯片的定价策略和强劲需求。然而，公司也警告称，供应链瓶颈可能会在未来几个季度影响Hopper和Blackwell芯片的供应，这一消息的发出也导致市场对这次超出预期的财报并没有过于热情的反应。

所以我们看到英伟达的股价在盘后交易中下跌4%以上，这也反映出投资者的复杂情绪。那么我们认为以下几个因素可能导致这一反应：高估值的压力英伟达当前市值接近1万亿美元，其股价已经包含了市场对未来增长的高度预期。尽管Q3财报超预期，但与上一季度的爆发式增长相比，增速明显放缓，投资者担忧这种趋势可能成为常态。供应链隐忧英伟达在电话会议中提到，Blackwell芯片的出货将在2025财年第四季度开始，但供应链限制可能持续至2026年。这一消息增加了投资者对公司未来营收增长的不确定性。短期业绩压力尽管数据中心业务表现强劲，但市场对未来几个季度的增长路径表现出谨慎态度。部分分析师认为，市场已经透支了对英伟达短期增长的预期，投资者期待看到更多新的增长点。尽管这次盘后的反应并不强烈，但是在人工智能浪潮下，英伟达仍然是最大的受益者之一。公司Hopper和Blackwell系列芯片的强劲需求，以及AI技术在更多行业的应用扩展，为其未来增长提供了坚实基础，比如我们所熟知的花旗银行就上调了英伟达2025财年、2026财年和2027财年的EPS预期，并把目标股价从150美元上调至170美元。

并且根据期权市场的数据我们会发现市场对英伟达财报的反应比对下月的非农、CPI和FOMC利率决议更为敏感，表明英伟达财报对市场（比如S&P500)的影响可能超过其他比较重大的经济事件了，这也表明英伟达的市场地位已经不容小觑。当然除此英伟达也在面临一些挑战：首先是面临的竞争压力，随着AMD、谷歌和亚马逊等巨头加速布局AI芯片市场，英伟达需要不断创新以维持其领先地位。此外，竞争对手在价格和性能上的追赶可能会对英伟达的市场份额和定价策略构成威胁。而放眼全球的宏观经济，全球经济增速放缓和高通胀可能压制企业对AI基础设施的投资，尤其是在利率高企的背景下。英伟达的增长依赖于数据中心和云计算领域的持续扩张，而宏观经济环境的不确定性可能对其增长产生拖累。以及我们前面提到过的供应链压力都可能在不同程度上影响英伟达未来的表现。

总体来说，这次英伟达的Q3财报再次证明了其在AI和芯片领域的强劲实力，但市场对其未来增长路径的期望已达极高水平，在高估值的背景下，短期的增速放缓和供应链隐忧成为压制股价的重要因素。未来，英伟达需要在技术创新、供应链优化和市场拓展方面继续发力才能保持行业领先地位。同时，投资者也是需要关注全球宏观经济环境、竞争格局变化以及AI技术的应用拓展，这些都将成为影响英伟达股价和增长的重要变量。当然了，我们还是认为无论是短期调整还是长期潜力，英伟达作为芯片界的领头老大，未来很长一段时间仍将是全球科技行业的风向标之一。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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在巴西二十国集团峰会期间举行的双边会晤中，澳洲总理阿尔巴尼斯和中国国家主席习近平讨论了两国关系的改善。为什么说近期是两国关系的转折点呢，核心是，特朗普重返白宫，承诺对所有进口到美国的商品征收高额关税，引发全球担忧。澳洲和中国在这个情况下，可能要加强双边贸易合作，将美国减少的市场份额，分配到其他国家和地区。如果我是澳洲总理，在特朗普上台的背景下，我会利用其贸易保护主义政策和全球经济格局的变化，推动澳大利亚实现更具战略性和多元化的国际贸易布局，同时在对中国态度和经济合作上采取灵活务实的策略。目前，总理阿尔巴尼斯宣布，和中国的“葡萄酒、木材、煤炭、大麦、海鲜等多个行业的贸易障碍已经消除，约 200 亿美元的贸易已经恢复。”

其实澳洲能做的，可以做的事情有很多，只要澳洲“公务员”稍微勤劳一些。当然，澳洲生活本来就是自由且缓慢的。但我们作为居民，仍然希望澳洲的经济能够更加繁荣。所以，借助特朗普全球战略收缩布局的背景，应该加强澳洲国际贸易领域的地位。首先扩大市场合作，减少对单一市场的依赖，包括对美国和中国部分领域的集中式出口或进口。最简单的就是加强与东南亚和南亚国家的合作，利用东盟的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP），通过双边和多边贸易协议深化与东盟国家的合作。扩展与越南、泰国等制造业快速崛起国家的经贸关系，构建替代市场，降低未来输入性通胀的风险。借特朗普对欧洲盟友的疏远契机，与欧盟深化自由贸易协议（FTA）谈判，增加高附加值产品（如清洁能源技术和教育服务）的出口。在北美地区推动与加拿大和墨西哥的贸易合作，避免完全依赖美国市场。

其次，利用地缘优势，打造区域供应链枢纽。利用澳大利亚在印太地区的地理位置，主动融入全球供应链重组。澳洲到目前连个自己的汽车品牌都搞丢了，在制造业领域非常惨淡。但是中高端的供应链，可以加大国际人才和资本的吸引力度，鼓励国际企业在澳洲设立区域性物流、制造和数据中心，特别是在特朗普政策使供应链从中国转移的背景下。对中国方面，将中国作为战略贸易伙伴，但合作重点从资源出口转向高附加值领域。在清洁能源技术（如太阳能、电池存储技术）、农业科技和医疗设备方面寻求合作。鼓励中国对澳大利亚基建和高科技产业的投资，同时确保国家安全审查的透明性。大家想一想，如果澳洲几个城市，能够有高铁连起来，那么大家的出行，经济的发展，都会更进一步。当然，只是设想一下。在政策上，平衡中美关系，在对华政策上采取“不选边站”的态度。既通过与美国的盟友关系保护澳洲国家安全，又通过与中国的经济合作获取实惠。将中澳贸易争端诉诸世界贸易组织（WTO）等多边平台，避免双边摩擦升级。发展经济，藏富于民，增加人民收入和幸福指数，加强澳洲的综合实力，才是硬道理。在经济结构上，趁着美国回笼战略辐射范围的背景下，应该 推动国内经济转型，减少资源依赖：加大对高附加值产业（如人工智能、数字经济、农业科技）的支持，推动经济转型。加速清洁能源经济：发展澳洲丰富的太阳能、风能等清洁能源资源，将其出口至能源需求国（如日本、韩国）。建立出口多元化基金：为出口企业提供资金支持，帮助其开拓新兴市场。优化出口商服务：通过简化手续、税收优惠等措施，提升澳洲出口企业的国际竞争力。把美国放弃的合作，争取挖过来。填补美国退出的市场空白。

所以，总的来说，澳洲未来能够在经济领域，快速走出澳洲，用全球视野，做产业和经济结构转型和升级，引进国际人才和资本，输出本国特殊的经济产品，能够快速在国际社会上提升影响力，同时增加本土居民收入水平，降低单一合作伙伴或经济结构的潜在风险。金融领域，我认为中长期澳币还是要上涨，基于澳洲未来的经济机遇和大宗商品的推动，包括央行利率水平的稳定性，相比于特朗普，澳洲降息会滞后。同时，股票市场，目前情况下，BHP等矿业巨头股票，可能会在未来国际贸易中获益。大家可以关注中澳双边关系改善带来的贸易和投资机会。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

Yellowcake - a commodity that is loved and loathed all in the same breath. The questions we have been asking are - which is right and what’s the outlook? Because as traders and investors that dilemma is key, there is a gap here and that leads to volatility and incorrect pricing in the short and long term some may want to jump on.

Recent developments in the uranium market suggest we may be witnessing the beginning of a significant shift. After a prolonged period of downward pressure on prices, two key events over the past two weeks have kicked yellowcake back into the minds of traders. First is the geopolitical supply shock, the second are signals of increased long-term demand.

That is music to us in economics as this is a pure supply and demand thematic and suggests a potential reversal. Together, they could usher in a new phase of steady price appreciation, reminiscent of the market's bullish run in 2023. Point 1: Demand Side: U.S.

Energy Policy Could Lay the Foundation for Long-Term Growth The first major factor influencing uranium demand stems from the U.S. political landscape. The election of President-elect Donald Trump introduces a new energy agenda, one that could reshape the trajectory of nuclear power in the United States. While Trump's campaign rhetoric and early post-election messaging have heavily emphasised fossil fuel expansion - check last week’s piece on the "drill, baby, drill" thematic - it’s clear that nuclear power also holds a significant place in his vision for America’s energy future.

Trump has repeatedly voiced support for nuclear energy, particularly for small modular reactors (SMRs). These advanced nuclear technologies are seen as the next generation of clean energy solutions, offering modular, scalable power generation with enhanced safety and efficiency. In recent speeches and interviews, Trump has highlighted (in his view) nuclear energy is part of the solution needed in achieving sustainability, lower carbon emissions, and enhancing U.S. energy independence.

That last point is actually his biggest driver here being an America First ideal. This policy focus could mark a critical inflection point for uranium demand globally. While nuclear infrastructure projects are long-term endeavours and won’t generate immediate demand for uranium, the signals are clear: the U.S. government may soon prioritise nuclear energy investments in ways we haven’t seen in decades.

It also comes at a time when the likes of France and to some extent greater Europe moves in this direction. Either way as these plans materialise, uranium’s importance as a strategic resource will only grow. Moreover, Asia is also shifting its focus to this energy source as well.

Asian countries are increasing their reliance on nuclear energy to meet ambitious carbon neutrality targets. This international momentum could compound the effects of U.S. policy changes, creating a robust foundation for sustained uranium demand over the next decade. Point 2 Supply Side: Part 1 Russia’s Export Restrictions Tighten the Market The second major development is far more immediate and impactful.

That changes on the supply side of the equation. Last week, Russia announced new restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, escalating geopolitical tensions and significantly disrupting global supply chains. This move mirrors the U.S.’s earlier ban on Russian uranium imports, imposed in May 2023 as part of broader sanctions against Russia.

Historically, Russia has been a critical player in the global uranium market, supplying enriched uranium to numerous countries, including the United States. In 2023 alone, Russia accounted for 28 per cent of U.S. enriched uranium imports, a substantial share of the market. Although U.S. sanctions effectively ended these imports by August 2023, waivers remain in place for select companies, allowing limited purchases from Russian suppliers until 2028 such as Centrus Energy and Constellation Energy.

What isn’t clear is whether any imports have actually taken place under this exemption since the sanctions were tightened. Either way Russia’s new export restrictions will exacerbate existing supply chain constraints and are likely to push U.S. utilities to seek alternative sources of enriched uranium. This, in turn, should drive increased activity in both spot and futures markets as energy providers scramble to secure long-term supply agreements.

The ripple effects of these restrictions may also spill over into global markets, further tightening the balance of supply and demand. Part 2 Wider Supply Challenges: A Tighter Market Ahead The second part of the supply side equation is that Russia isn’t the only player and recent production reports, and other geopolitical issues are also driving shortages in uranium For example: Niger’s Production Halt: Orano, a major uranium producer, recently placed Niger’s only operational mine into “care and maintenance” code for moth balling due to logistical challenges. The catch with putting mines into care and maintenance is that once its down it takes months (sometimes years) to return to full capacity.

So it’s not just a here and now story. Be aware this mine, which has an annual capacity of 2,000 tonnes of uranium (tU), accounts for approximately 3 per cent of global supply. The halt underscores the fragility of the uranium supply chain in politically unstable regions.

Junior Miners Struggling: Smaller uranium miners are cutting their production targets for 2024 and 2025 due to a combination of slower-than-expected ramp-ups, lower ore grades, and resistance from local communities. Collectively, these issues have removed an estimated 2,600 tU from projected global supply—roughly 4 per cent of the market. Offsetting Gains Insufficient: While Cameco has announced a 1-million-pound (365 tU) increase in its 2024 production guidance thanks to improved performance at its McArthur River mine, these gains are insufficient to offset broader supply losses.

With supply tightening, producers struggling to meet commitments in the spot market, the pressure is building on the supply that is in circulation – and that is a price enhancer. Where does this leave Uranium? These developments create a powerful pinch point in the uranium market.

There is a promising long-term demand story evolving driven by potential shifts in U.S. energy policy and global momentum toward nuclear energy. On the flip-side, immediate supply constraints, driven by geopolitical tensions and production challenges, are tightening the market. The convergence of these factors could mark the start of a new cycle characterised by sustained price increases.

While it’s too early to definitively declare a bull market, the conditions are becoming increasingly favourable. For investors, this shifting landscape presents an opportunity. If supply disruptions persist, the uranium market could experience a strong rebound in the coming months.

Prices in both the spot and term markets are likely to reflect this tightening balance, creating a more attractive risk-reward dynamic for those positioned to take advantage of the trend. Big caveat - the uranium market is notoriously volatile and can see +/- 20 per cent moves in days or weeks. But the current setup suggests a potential turning point that could define the market's trajectory for years to come.

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作为经常在股市或金融市场里的朋友们一定听说过美国高盛银行这个世界第一大投资银行的名字。作为美国华尔街的扛把子，高盛有着整个投资银行界几乎最高的平均收入，也一直是世界各国高校金融科目学子心中的第一圣地。想当年我在澳洲大学本科毕业也希望可以进入其中当一个初级分析师。现在知道了，绝大部分澳洲的投行只招收两种大学毕业生：背后资源丰富和毕业生，或本身硬实力顶尖的毕业生。这个其实放在哪里都一样，先不说。

相对于高盛在美国投行界的高收入，其在另一个领域也是相当的出名，就是之前多年来全球闻名的反向预测灯塔：也就是说，在过去多年的实践里，在多个重要的时间结点，高盛凭借其几乎100%的错误判断，成功的帮助了很多投资人亏得血本无归。但是同一时期，高盛公布的财报却又是节节攀升，这就奇怪了：你推荐给别人的产品，别人亏得毛都不剩，但是你自己却越赚越多？这背后原因无非两种：1.高盛自己买的都是不公开推荐的。2.高盛故意给别人推荐，自己再反向交易。当然，有鉴于美国华尔街相互之间都下黑手，所以如果高盛到不敢真的估计和客户反着来，这样一旦被发现，会被美国证监会罚的破产。所以大概率，高盛的投研部，和交易部根本就不沟通：投研部写的报告，交易部根本不用。好了，说了这么多背景介绍，现在来说重点：高盛最新的推荐：说2025年，黄金会到3000美元，高盛又说，2025年美元会继续保持强劲走势。按照高盛一贯的预测准确率，我们是不是可以反向猜测，就算不是两个全错，按理说至少有一个是错的。当然了，我们先来看看高盛给出的理由：就在上周日，11月17号，高盛分析师发布2025年展望报告，表示将继续看好黄金，并对贵金属领域最具信心。高盛将做多黄金列为其2025年大宗商品顶级交易（Top Trade）。根据高盛的预测，其判断在美联储降息的周期性和其他国家不断增加购买黄金的支持下，高盛维持对黄金3000美元的2025年年底目标价判断。

也就是说，从上周五收盘价格到3000的目标价格，还有至少17%左右的空间。除了看黄金到3000以外，高盛还给出了两个潜在更高的可能性：1. 如果特朗普上台以后发生贸易战，增加全球不确定因素。2. 美国财政因为不断增发国债导致可持续性危机。这两种情况都可能导致黄金价格超过3000美元大关。之后再来看看高盛对于美元走强的判断依据：高盛认为，2025年的外汇市场可能以美元的持续强势为主旋律。美国新政府政策组合的调整、美国经济的相对优势以及全球资本的流入，都为美元提供了支撑。因此高盛的投研团队改变之前对于美元看空的判断，反过来，预测美元的强势地位将比此前预期更持久。换句话，就是先啪啪打自己脸。之前的说了不算，重新预测。我估计是他们投研团队换了领导，所以之前的全部推翻，必须按照新领导说的写。当然，按照惯例，毕竟不是给自己亲爹意见，所以高盛还是很社会的留了一手：两头都要押注。他们说，尽管对美元保持乐观，但也指出了一些潜在风险因素：如全球其他经济增长超预期可能重新平衡全球资本流动，削弱美元的吸引力。其次，更大幅度的利率削减也可能对美元构成一定压力。总结一句话就是美元有可能涨，但是也不排除跌。是不是很鸡贼？

所以如果我们看高盛的预测，看完之后都是一个感觉：他到底要表达的是涨，还是跌？但是不论是涨，还是跌，三个月后，他们都可以找出一个更加充分的理由来推翻之前的看法，重新给出“精准而专业“的预测。市场里有个传言说，高盛的判断一般等你看到了，就意味着几乎他们所有的大客户已经建仓完毕，等外面的散户买入，开始接盘了。毕竟，如果你是投了几个亿的超级大客户，不可能和外面拿免费报告的小散在同一时间拿到报告。说了这么多，高盛还是那个高盛，他高概率的反向指标，依然无法动摇其美国第一投行的地位。但是对于我们在金融市场里危险冲浪的小散户而言，千万不要因为某一个机构的规模或头衔大而全信。一定要做到兼听则明，多听，多看，加上自己的思维，才能做到一个相对全面的理性分析。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监