市场资讯及洞察

Yellowcake - a commodity that is loved and loathed all in the same breath. The questions we have been asking are - which is right and what’s the outlook? Because as traders and investors that dilemma is key, there is a gap here and that leads to volatility and incorrect pricing in the short and long term some may want to jump on.

Recent developments in the uranium market suggest we may be witnessing the beginning of a significant shift. After a prolonged period of downward pressure on prices, two key events over the past two weeks have kicked yellowcake back into the minds of traders. First is the geopolitical supply shock, the second are signals of increased long-term demand.

That is music to us in economics as this is a pure supply and demand thematic and suggests a potential reversal. Together, they could usher in a new phase of steady price appreciation, reminiscent of the market's bullish run in 2023. Point 1: Demand Side: U.S.

Energy Policy Could Lay the Foundation for Long-Term Growth The first major factor influencing uranium demand stems from the U.S. political landscape. The election of President-elect Donald Trump introduces a new energy agenda, one that could reshape the trajectory of nuclear power in the United States. While Trump's campaign rhetoric and early post-election messaging have heavily emphasised fossil fuel expansion - check last week’s piece on the "drill, baby, drill" thematic - it’s clear that nuclear power also holds a significant place in his vision for America’s energy future.

Trump has repeatedly voiced support for nuclear energy, particularly for small modular reactors (SMRs). These advanced nuclear technologies are seen as the next generation of clean energy solutions, offering modular, scalable power generation with enhanced safety and efficiency. In recent speeches and interviews, Trump has highlighted (in his view) nuclear energy is part of the solution needed in achieving sustainability, lower carbon emissions, and enhancing U.S. energy independence.

That last point is actually his biggest driver here being an America First ideal. This policy focus could mark a critical inflection point for uranium demand globally. While nuclear infrastructure projects are long-term endeavours and won’t generate immediate demand for uranium, the signals are clear: the U.S. government may soon prioritise nuclear energy investments in ways we haven’t seen in decades.

It also comes at a time when the likes of France and to some extent greater Europe moves in this direction. Either way as these plans materialise, uranium’s importance as a strategic resource will only grow. Moreover, Asia is also shifting its focus to this energy source as well.

Asian countries are increasing their reliance on nuclear energy to meet ambitious carbon neutrality targets. This international momentum could compound the effects of U.S. policy changes, creating a robust foundation for sustained uranium demand over the next decade. Point 2 Supply Side: Part 1 Russia’s Export Restrictions Tighten the Market The second major development is far more immediate and impactful.

That changes on the supply side of the equation. Last week, Russia announced new restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, escalating geopolitical tensions and significantly disrupting global supply chains. This move mirrors the U.S.’s earlier ban on Russian uranium imports, imposed in May 2023 as part of broader sanctions against Russia.

Historically, Russia has been a critical player in the global uranium market, supplying enriched uranium to numerous countries, including the United States. In 2023 alone, Russia accounted for 28 per cent of U.S. enriched uranium imports, a substantial share of the market. Although U.S. sanctions effectively ended these imports by August 2023, waivers remain in place for select companies, allowing limited purchases from Russian suppliers until 2028 such as Centrus Energy and Constellation Energy.

What isn’t clear is whether any imports have actually taken place under this exemption since the sanctions were tightened. Either way Russia’s new export restrictions will exacerbate existing supply chain constraints and are likely to push U.S. utilities to seek alternative sources of enriched uranium. This, in turn, should drive increased activity in both spot and futures markets as energy providers scramble to secure long-term supply agreements.

The ripple effects of these restrictions may also spill over into global markets, further tightening the balance of supply and demand. Part 2 Wider Supply Challenges: A Tighter Market Ahead The second part of the supply side equation is that Russia isn’t the only player and recent production reports, and other geopolitical issues are also driving shortages in uranium For example: Niger’s Production Halt: Orano, a major uranium producer, recently placed Niger’s only operational mine into “care and maintenance” code for moth balling due to logistical challenges. The catch with putting mines into care and maintenance is that once its down it takes months (sometimes years) to return to full capacity.

So it’s not just a here and now story. Be aware this mine, which has an annual capacity of 2,000 tonnes of uranium (tU), accounts for approximately 3 per cent of global supply. The halt underscores the fragility of the uranium supply chain in politically unstable regions.

Junior Miners Struggling: Smaller uranium miners are cutting their production targets for 2024 and 2025 due to a combination of slower-than-expected ramp-ups, lower ore grades, and resistance from local communities. Collectively, these issues have removed an estimated 2,600 tU from projected global supply—roughly 4 per cent of the market. Offsetting Gains Insufficient: While Cameco has announced a 1-million-pound (365 tU) increase in its 2024 production guidance thanks to improved performance at its McArthur River mine, these gains are insufficient to offset broader supply losses.

With supply tightening, producers struggling to meet commitments in the spot market, the pressure is building on the supply that is in circulation – and that is a price enhancer. Where does this leave Uranium? These developments create a powerful pinch point in the uranium market.

There is a promising long-term demand story evolving driven by potential shifts in U.S. energy policy and global momentum toward nuclear energy. On the flip-side, immediate supply constraints, driven by geopolitical tensions and production challenges, are tightening the market. The convergence of these factors could mark the start of a new cycle characterised by sustained price increases.

While it’s too early to definitively declare a bull market, the conditions are becoming increasingly favourable. For investors, this shifting landscape presents an opportunity. If supply disruptions persist, the uranium market could experience a strong rebound in the coming months.

Prices in both the spot and term markets are likely to reflect this tightening balance, creating a more attractive risk-reward dynamic for those positioned to take advantage of the trend. Big caveat - the uranium market is notoriously volatile and can see +/- 20 per cent moves in days or weeks. But the current setup suggests a potential turning point that could define the market's trajectory for years to come.

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作为经常在股市或金融市场里的朋友们一定听说过美国高盛银行这个世界第一大投资银行的名字。作为美国华尔街的扛把子，高盛有着整个投资银行界几乎最高的平均收入，也一直是世界各国高校金融科目学子心中的第一圣地。想当年我在澳洲大学本科毕业也希望可以进入其中当一个初级分析师。现在知道了，绝大部分澳洲的投行只招收两种大学毕业生：背后资源丰富和毕业生，或本身硬实力顶尖的毕业生。这个其实放在哪里都一样，先不说。

相对于高盛在美国投行界的高收入，其在另一个领域也是相当的出名，就是之前多年来全球闻名的反向预测灯塔：也就是说，在过去多年的实践里，在多个重要的时间结点，高盛凭借其几乎100%的错误判断，成功的帮助了很多投资人亏得血本无归。但是同一时期，高盛公布的财报却又是节节攀升，这就奇怪了：你推荐给别人的产品，别人亏得毛都不剩，但是你自己却越赚越多？这背后原因无非两种：1.高盛自己买的都是不公开推荐的。2.高盛故意给别人推荐，自己再反向交易。当然，有鉴于美国华尔街相互之间都下黑手，所以如果高盛到不敢真的估计和客户反着来，这样一旦被发现，会被美国证监会罚的破产。所以大概率，高盛的投研部，和交易部根本就不沟通：投研部写的报告，交易部根本不用。好了，说了这么多背景介绍，现在来说重点：高盛最新的推荐：说2025年，黄金会到3000美元，高盛又说，2025年美元会继续保持强劲走势。按照高盛一贯的预测准确率，我们是不是可以反向猜测，就算不是两个全错，按理说至少有一个是错的。当然了，我们先来看看高盛给出的理由：就在上周日，11月17号，高盛分析师发布2025年展望报告，表示将继续看好黄金，并对贵金属领域最具信心。高盛将做多黄金列为其2025年大宗商品顶级交易（Top Trade）。根据高盛的预测，其判断在美联储降息的周期性和其他国家不断增加购买黄金的支持下，高盛维持对黄金3000美元的2025年年底目标价判断。

也就是说，从上周五收盘价格到3000的目标价格，还有至少17%左右的空间。除了看黄金到3000以外，高盛还给出了两个潜在更高的可能性：1. 如果特朗普上台以后发生贸易战，增加全球不确定因素。2. 美国财政因为不断增发国债导致可持续性危机。这两种情况都可能导致黄金价格超过3000美元大关。之后再来看看高盛对于美元走强的判断依据：高盛认为，2025年的外汇市场可能以美元的持续强势为主旋律。美国新政府政策组合的调整、美国经济的相对优势以及全球资本的流入，都为美元提供了支撑。因此高盛的投研团队改变之前对于美元看空的判断，反过来，预测美元的强势地位将比此前预期更持久。换句话，就是先啪啪打自己脸。之前的说了不算，重新预测。我估计是他们投研团队换了领导，所以之前的全部推翻，必须按照新领导说的写。当然，按照惯例，毕竟不是给自己亲爹意见，所以高盛还是很社会的留了一手：两头都要押注。他们说，尽管对美元保持乐观，但也指出了一些潜在风险因素：如全球其他经济增长超预期可能重新平衡全球资本流动，削弱美元的吸引力。其次，更大幅度的利率削减也可能对美元构成一定压力。总结一句话就是美元有可能涨，但是也不排除跌。是不是很鸡贼？

所以如果我们看高盛的预测，看完之后都是一个感觉：他到底要表达的是涨，还是跌？但是不论是涨，还是跌，三个月后，他们都可以找出一个更加充分的理由来推翻之前的看法，重新给出“精准而专业“的预测。市场里有个传言说，高盛的判断一般等你看到了，就意味着几乎他们所有的大客户已经建仓完毕，等外面的散户买入，开始接盘了。毕竟，如果你是投了几个亿的超级大客户，不可能和外面拿免费报告的小散在同一时间拿到报告。说了这么多，高盛还是那个高盛，他高概率的反向指标，依然无法动摇其美国第一投行的地位。但是对于我们在金融市场里危险冲浪的小散户而言，千万不要因为某一个机构的规模或头衔大而全信。一定要做到兼听则明，多听，多看，加上自己的思维，才能做到一个相对全面的理性分析。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

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世界富翁马斯克最近喜事连连，不仅特斯拉股价暴涨140%，而且未来还可能成功跻身政坛，毕竟报恩的特朗普已经任命马斯克领导新一届政府下的“政府效率部”。虽然机构名称是“department”，但不是传统的内阁部门，更像是总统委员会（Presidential commission）。总统委员会是美国政府的外部建议机构，通常由外部专家组成，成立也比较简单，有总统行政令或备忘录即可，这意味着马斯克不用调整其在企业内的任职。马斯克虽然不进内阁，但是有总统的支持，他的权力不会小，市场上对于马斯克的政府工作宣传也很多了，总体来说，他的工作主要是削减联邦政府和支出。之前马斯克曾表示要削减2万亿美元支出，也就是砍掉约1/3的联邦政府支出，如果能成功实施，预计一定程度上可以抵消减税带来的赤字，不过可能会对就业造成影响。

马斯克不仅拥有特斯拉和SpaceX这两家科技巨头，还掌控着社交媒体平台X（前Twitter）。早在2021年，他的一个#bitcoin标签就让比特币在几小时内暴涨了19%；另一条“白银是新的GameStop”的推特甚至在短短几天内拉动银价上涨10%。而当他宣布要把特斯拉私有化时（尽管最终没兑现），TSLA股票当天大涨11%。但是到目前为止，马斯克对于黄金一直没有非常明确的态度。当马斯克全力为SpaceX铺平道路、甚至宣布了激进的火星计划时，他可能不得不关心黄金的价格，毕竟黄金不仅用于造飞船，火星上甚至可能有或可以合成黄金！首先我们来谈谈造飞船与黄金的关系。黄金是火箭和卫星的关键材料，可以帮助避免娇贵的电子设备生锈、腐蚀和损坏。黄金的高导电性可以实现信息在太空中的远距离传输，这对于卫星和空间站来说至关重要。由于黄金可以反射高达99.4% 的光粒子，因此它还可以用于降低太阳热量对航天器的热损耗，这也是为什么太空头盔的面罩上覆盖着一层薄薄的金子的原因，每个头盔的价格大约300 万美元，是地球上最昂贵的头盔之一了。哥伦比亚号航天飞机使用了约41公斤黄金，约合1,446盎司，而 SpaceX 与 NASA 签订了到 2030 年底的 50 亿美元合同，是仅有的与NASA签订商业补给服务（CRS-2）合同的三家公司之一。分析家预计全球航天工业到 2030 年将增长一倍，所以黄金需求将只升不降。

金矿作为一种稀缺品，需求越高，在地球就会越挖越深，就会越挖越少。根据世界黄金协会2024年最新统计，2023年地表黄金库存为212,582吨，大部分集中在1950年以后开采，而2024年三季度全球黄金需求总量（包括场外投资）同比增长5%，当然金价也连创新高，相信美联储降息前上车的朋友们收益不错。那么还有多少黄金可以挖呢？根据美国地质调查局研究，当前已探明储量约59,000吨，这意味着人类已经挖空了约3/4的金矿，结合金矿开采速度和各国金矿消耗速度粗略估计，剩余黄金平均只够挖20年了。

20年后，新增的黄金需求由哪里供给呢？SpaceX的火星计划或许给我们提供了无限可能。火星是一个巨大的红色星球，土壤环境和西澳矿山很接近，如果我们脑洞大开一下，“火星掘金”也不是完全不可能。

（火星地表图片）

（西澳矿山图片）科学家认为，外太空提供了火星合成黄金的环境条件：超新星爆炸、中子星合并和陨石撞击等宇宙事件会产生重元素，金就是其中之一。根据美国宇航局统计，火星每年遭受280到360 次陨石撞击，可能为金矿的产生提供了契机，而且火星上压力小，相比地球开采难度可能要低一些。

从SpaceX造价来说，马斯克显然希望金价越低越好，这样可以为SpaceX节省成本。但是我们认为，至少在实现火星采矿之前，黄金的需求仍是非常强劲的，至于20年之后会怎么样，就留给科技与科学吧！免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

There has been plenty of conjecture about where oil is going to go in 2025 and we would suggest that the recent climb in Brent crude oil prices above $80 per barrel reflects an intensifying mix of geopolitical uncertainty. The main 3 uncertainties driving oil have been the impact of the U.S. presidential election, the escalation of the Middle East tensions and anticipation surrounding the OPEC+ meeting on December 1. These factors are clearly shaping short-term oil price dynamics, although some uncertainties have begun to ease, namely the election and the Middle East, but they still hold sway.

Thus let’s explore revised demand and supply projections as the industry anticipates a potential surplus in 2025 and the enactment of the Trump administrations Drill. Drill. Drill policy. 1.

Middle East Tensions Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have posed a notable risk to the global oil supply particularly the conflicts involving Israel and Iran and the potential disruptions it would cause to OPEC’s 5 largest producers. However, so far, oil infrastructure in the region has largely remained intact, and oil flows are expected to continue without significant interruptions. While exchanges between regional powers remain a potential flashpoint, there is a general consensus that the two countries have stepped back from the worst.

The base case for this point is to assume stability in oil transportation routes and infrastructure. However, as we have seen during periods of unrest this year the consequences of a flare up for global oil prices can be considerable, underscoring the market's sensitivity to even minor shifts in Middle Eastern stability. 2. U.S.

Presidential Election – Drill Baby Drill The U.S. presidential election outcome has had a muted effect on oil prices – so far. This is likely due to President-elect Trump's policies regarding the energy being ‘speculative’. But there are several parts of his election platform that will directly and indirectly hit oil over the coming 4 years.

First as foremost – its platform was built on ‘turning the taps back on’ and ‘drill, drill, drill’. Under the current administration US shale gas and new oil exploration programs have come under higher levels of scrutiny and/or outright rejections. The new administration wants to reverse this and enhance the US’ output.

This is despite consensus showing these projects may return below cost-effective rates of return if oil prices remain low and the cost of production above competitors. Second, although President-Elect’s proposed tariff policies—ranging from 10-20 per cent on all imports, with higher rates on Chinese goods—could slow global trade, the net effect on the oil market is uncertain. Consensus estimates have the 10 per cent blanket tariff reducing U.S.

GDP growth by 1.4 per cent annually, potentially cutting oil demand by several hundred thousand barrels per day. If enacted, this bearish influence could counterbalance any potential bullish effects on prices. The third issue is geopolitics again – this time the possible reinstatement of the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was enacted in the first Trump administration.

If the Trump administration imposes secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, Iran’s exports could drop as they did during the 2018-2019 period, when sanctions sharply curtailed oil shipments. Such a development would likely tighten global supply and drive prices higher. These three issues illustrate possible impacts U.S. policy could have in 2025 and illustrate how contrasting economic and geopolitical factors could sway oil prices in unpredictable ways.

It again also explains why reactions in oil to Trump’s victory are still in a holding pattern. 3. What about OPEC? This brings us to the third part of the oil dynamic, OPEC and its upcoming Vienna convention on December 1.

The OPEC+ meeting presents another key variable, currently the consensus issue that member countries face - the risk of oversupply in 2025 and what to do about it. Despite Brent crude hovering above $70 per barrel, a price point that has normally seen production cut reactions, consensus has OPEC+ maintain its production targets for 2025, at least for the near term. We feel this is open for a significant market surprise as there is a growing minority view that OPEC+ could cut production by as much as 1.4 million barrels.

With Brent prices projected to stabilise around the low $70s, how effectively OPEC+ navigates this delicate balance between production and demand remains anyone’s guess and it's not out of the question that the bloc pulls a swift change that leads to price change shocks. December 1 is a key risk to markets. Where does this leave 2025?

According to world oil sites global supply and demand projections for 2025 suggest a surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels a day, and that accounts for the recent adjustments to both demand and OPEC supply which basically offset each other. With this in mind and all variables remaining constant the base case for Brent is for pricing to sag through 2025 with forecasts ranging from as low as $58 a barrel to $69 a barrel However, as we well know the variables in the oil markets are vast and are currently more unknown than at any time in the past 4 years. For example: Non-OPEC supply growth underperformed in 2024, which is atypical; over the past 15 years, non-OPEC supply has generally exceeded expectations.

With Trump sworn in in late-January will the ‘Drill, Drill, Drill policy be enacted quickly and reverse this trend? This may prompt a supply war with OPEC, who may respond to market conditions by revising its output plans downward, which would tighten supply and support prices. In short its going to be complex So consensus has an oil market under pressure in 2025 with a projected surplus that could bring Brent prices into the mid-$60s range by the year’s end.

But that is clearly not a linear call and the global oil market faces an intricate array of challenges, and ongoing monitoring of these trends will be essential to refine forecasts and gauge the future direction of prices, something we will be watching closely.

Why you need to understand this market concept to improve your trading: Market Correlation For new traders and experienced traders, it can be daunting trying to find the best assets to trade. Whether it be equities, foreign exchange or indices, traders should be trying to have as many factors pointing in their favour as possible when entering a trade. These factors can include, the general trend of the individual asset, the price action at the time of entering the trade, candlestick patterns, use of technical indicators, among many others.

However, one thing that all traders should know about and understand is correlation. What is Correlation? Correlation is the pattern or relationship of how one asset performs relative to another asset.

In statistics, there are mathematical measures of correlation including covariance, correlation coefficients and other terms to describe the relationship of one asset to another. These methods can also be used to quantify asset correlations. A correlation between assets can be positive negative or uncorrelated.

Understanding which relationship between different assets can help provide some indication of the way in which an assets price will go. Below is a diagram that shows how the return of assets can be plotted against each other and the potential relationship. For example, imagine that there are two gold companies Gold company A Gold company B Assume that the price of their shares is perfectly, positively, correlated.

This means that when gold company A’s share price rises by 1% company B’s share price will also rise by 1%. This same price action will occur in reverse if the price of company A falls by 1%. Now in practice no two assets are perfectly correlated.

However, two or more assets may be very strongly correlated. Therefore, identifying how correlated certain assets are and how the price of one impact on the other can be a powerful tool. What creates correlation?

Strong correlation between assets usually occurs because the price of the different assets is material impacted by very similar factors. For instance, two companies in Australia may be more correlated than one company in Australia and one company in the USA. This is because geographically the Australian companies will be affected the local economic conditions.

This may include things such as inflation, taxation policies and other geographical specific conditions. Other factors that can influence the correlation include similarity of the assets or a company’s business operations, being in the same sector or a range of other factors. For example, see the correlation between the ‘Big 4’ banks in Australia below.

It can be seen due to how similar the businesses are and the conditions of which they operate in the pattern on returns are almost identical. Index correlation An important phenomenon to understand is the law of averages and big numbers. Essentially, if large companies are grouped together then they act as a good proxy for the overall market or a specific sector.

This essentially is what an ETF or and Index is. Therefore, as it represents how most individual companies are performing, most companies will be to a degree correlated to the overall market index or relevant sector index or ETF. Size matters Another important thing to understand about how correlation works is that smaller assets or companies will tend to correlate towards the performance of the major players within the sector.

For instance, in the technology sector, smaller technology company’s such as zoom will likely be correlated to larger companies such as Apple and Microsoft by virtue of being in the same sector. Correlations do not just occur in equities and are prevalent in FOREX and commodities. Correlation can be found between growth assets such as the Nasdaq Index which is a technology heavy Index and growth currencies such as the AUD or NZD.

Similarly, more stable assets such as the Dow Jones will likely be more correlated to commodities such as oil, they represent more stable industry and manufacturing sectors. How does it improve your trading? By simply being aware of the direction of the correlated assets, a trader is better able to trade with underlying trend and momentum.

This is vital when trying to optimise edge and improve trading accuracy. It can also equally show when a stock is underperforming or overperforming. For instance, if the general trend of a sector leader is trading 5% higher over a certain period, and a smaller company in the sector is trading at 10% higher it is outperforming the ‘sector’ and understanding why this occurs is an important step into deciphering what is driving price action.

Having a good understanding of how assets correlate can also help find potential trading opportunities earlier than others. This is because by following a sector it becomes easier to see which assets still may have room to shift their price. Ultimately, if a trader can develop their identification of patterns of correlation and the reasons for the relationships between different assets it can provide a trader with a much stronger and accurate edge.

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在最新月报当中OPEC又一次将2024和2025年全球石油需求增长预期下调，这一举措引发了全球市场的高度关注；而另一方面特朗普上台后对于关税和战争的态度会对整个原油市场带来怎样的波动也被广泛关注。在这样的背景下，市场对未来油价走势的预期也更加复杂。OPEC之所以调整需求预期，主要原因在于全球经济增长放缓的压力，以及新能源的快速发展。OPEC在最新报告中将2024年石油需求增长从193万桶/日下调至182万桶/日，2025年则从164万桶/日下调至154万桶/日。这是OPEC连续第四个月下调石油需求预期，持续反映了对全球经济复苏的不确定性以及面临的能源转型的压力。

在OPEC开始持续下调石油需求预期后，市场对油价的下行风险表现出更高的关注。布伦特原油（UKOUSD)和WTI原油(USOUSD)四个月以来的价格都因此承压下行，市场的避险情绪明显上升，通过图像也可以看出来在这四个月期间布伦特原油和WTI原油整体都呈现出了下行的趋势。

除了OPEC调整预期需求以外，石油市场的另一大变量在于地缘政治风险。中东地区作为OPEC主要成员国的所在地，一直以来都是全球石油供应的关键，任何地缘冲突都会导致石油供应不稳定，影响全球油价。特别是在以色列和巴勒斯坦冲突等热点事件的影响下，石油市场的供需形势变得更加复杂，油价在短期内易受到政治风险的冲击而剧烈波动。但现在市场有很大一部分人认为中东地区战争冲突目前带来的影响不及全球尤其是亚洲地区经济持续放缓所带来的影响大。中国作为全球最大石油消费国之一，其经济增长疲软导致石油需求预期下降，成为压制油价的一个重要因素。此外，欧美经济体在高通胀和经济滞涨的压力下，石油消费增长预期受限。这些因素共同作用，使得市场对石油需求的长期增长信心不足。在OPEC下调需求预期的背景下，巴克莱银行也对未来油市的稳定性做出了预测，该行指出，即使特朗普再次上任，其政策在短期内也不太可能对石油市场的基本面产生重大影响。巴克莱认为目前市场情绪主要集中在需求侧的负面因素上，而忽略了油市中的风险平衡。为此，巴克莱建议投资者可以考虑2025年12月的布伦特原油看涨价差，即做多油价的未来上涨空间，特别是在油市的供需平衡和地缘政治的不确定性因素下。这一策略体现出巴克莱对中长期油价仍然抱有相对乐观的态度。OPEC的下调预期还反映了石油行业所面临的能源转型压力，随着全球向可再生能源转型的步伐加快，电动车的普及和新能源技术的进步正在不断压缩石油的需求空间。欧洲各国已经设立了禁售燃油车的时间表，美国、加拿大等主要经济体也在大力推动新能源基础设施建设。这意味着，未来石油需求可能进一步萎缩，OPEC和主要产油国将不得不在供应端调整政策以适应新的格局。能源转型虽为长期趋势，但其带来的石油需求疲软正在给市场传递出明确的信号，这不仅影响了油价的短期走势，更是对整个石油市场长期前景的警示。

总的来看，OPEC的预期调整、地缘政治因素、全球经济放缓和能源转型等复杂因素共同影响了未来油价的波动性。OPEC的需求下调和巴克莱对油市未来的乐观建议又共同形成了市场风险的平衡视角。尽管石油需求增长放缓对短期油价产生压力，但从中长期来看，巴克莱认为油市仍有上行潜力，尤其在市场关注过度的下行风险和地缘不确定性持续存在的情况下。对于投资者而言，保持灵活性、密切关注政策和地缘政治动态将是应对油市波动的关键。同时，随着能源转型的推进，油市的传统逻辑或将被打破，未来油价在多重因素的作用下将持续波动，这为投资者在全球石油市场带来了新的风险与机遇。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部