市场资讯及洞察
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上周我们看到美联储在十月的利率决议一如市场预期的进行了25个基点的降息操作,在决议公布后全球的金融市场波动较为平淡;但是重点集中在鲍威尔和记者在一些尖锐问题上的看法和一些话外音当中。利率决议重要信息总结:预期管理方面:
- 全面否认12月必定降息的预期,美联储官员内部存在分歧
- 利率已经接近中性利率,在这个观点上相较于九月来说有所提升
- 在风险平衡方面表示通胀问题暂时比就业问题影响要大
就业数据方面:
- 就是市场放缓,但是病危显著恶化
- 将主要因素归功于劳动力供给下降
通胀
- 9月CPI表现温和,剔除关税核心PCE 2.3-2.4%
- 服务通胀(除住房)“横盘”,将逐步回落
资产负债表
- 将在12月1日起停止缩表,已达“充裕储备”
- 未来再投资短期美债,缩短久期
- 准备金将随现金增长自然下降,但“不会太久”
其他方面答记者问:
- AI投资对利率不敏感,对AI泡沫化表示不是工作重点
- 车贷和商业地产的次级贷违约局部、可控,未系统性蔓延
- 银行资本十分充足,整体金融体系稳健,压力测试并无风险
对鲍威尔讲话的数据交叉验证尽管从鲍威尔本次的利率决议中我们发现市场并没有过度敏感,甚至在鲍威尔口中一切欣欣向荣,数据空窗期只给美联储的决策带来了小部分影响,但是并不会对整体经济走势带来大的逆转,所以全球市场并未表现出任何的过度恐慌和逆向交易,在短暂波动中便产生了震荡的收敛,但是事实也许并无那么乐观。就业方面:根据已知数据,美国现阶段就业“稳固”:失业4.3%(BLS数据),随后陷入了数据真空期,而我们也可以从图表中看到,失业率数据在2025年整体上呈现上升态势,也许现在的真空隐藏了数据中最会促使市场衰退恐慌的一面,而鲍威尔通过一句整体稳健维持市场对美联储决策方向的信心;恰巧利用了该真空期对市场进行议论新的预期管理。

通胀方面:如果对美国通胀进行长期的观测会看到实际上美国通胀水平已从疫情期间回归常态,而逐渐在现水平出现下行放缓的迹象,尽管鲍威尔提及了关税可能带来的影响,但是随后中美会谈对关税带来的通胀影响实际上是多方利好,从通胀角度看,美联储的压力将会逐步缩减,但是也从长期中可以关注为何鲍威尔会重点强调中性利率的攀升,而这也会对市场对长期的利率预期产生一定程度的影响。

美国现在的次级贷问题:近期市场十分关注的二手车暴雷事件在两周前引起了一波小范围的恐慌,本次利率决议记者也就该问题对鲍威尔进行了相关问答,美联储主席在该话题上表现得非常含糊粉饰太平,基本上话语中处处透露本次事件影响范围较小,不会带来较大范围的扩散和金融市场的整体压力,但是实际数据并非如此支持。

从真实数据上看多重数据显示房地产由于受到了08年的教训影响,整体违约率水平处于低位看起来并不存在大范围暴雷的潜在危机,但是二手车和商业地产确实实打实的在数据上已经亮起了黄灯。如果接下来出现中等银行的挤兑和暴雷那将是对金融系统带来真正意义上的考验。结论来看:从近期中美更新合作协议,降低关税来看,美国的通胀压力或将不会过度挤压美联储后续的政策空间,但是美国的失业率真空也许会在公布后给美国带来一定程度的惊吓,而鲍威尔尽管言辞已经极其谨慎仍然在次级贷近期的问题上表态过于乐观,各类型数据并不支持该市场不存在隐患的定论,对于风险偏好类的投资,也许赛道的拥挤或将拱火危机进行进一步发酵,所以在投资偏好和风险均摊上投资者应进行更进一步的风险管理。
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
联系方式:
墨尔本 03 8658 0603
悉尼 02 9188 0418
中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903
作者:
William Zhao | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - G Gapping Gapping is when the price of an asset moves higher or lower without any price activity in-between the pre-gap and post-gap prices. Learn more about Gapping. GDP Also known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is the total value of goods and services manufactured in a country over a period of time.
It can also be used as the size and health indicator of a country's economy. Gearing ratio Gearing is a measurement of a company's financial leverage. In this context, leverage is the amount of funds acquired through creditor loans – or debt – compared to the funds acquired through equity capital.
Gross margin The amount of profit a company makes from its revenue is termed as Gross margin. GTC order This stands for `good `till cancelled` and is an instruction to buy or sell an asset at a specific limit. The order will remain valid and working in the market until it is either filled or cancelled.


热门话题
熟悉中国历史的朋友们应该都听说过一句俗话,叫做盛世古董,乱世黄金。其字面意思就是说当经济发展强劲,民众手里资金充裕时,那大家对于古董的投资热情就会相应增加。而古董不论是字画还是瓷器雕刻,都属于不便于携带的“易碎品”因此需要一个较为稳定的收藏和保存环境。在经济稳定的社会环境下,人们就会有更多的时间和经济区追求精神文化需求,而古董作为历史、艺术和文化的结合体,往往更能满足人们的精神文化需求,更是对历史和文化的一种热爱和尊重,同时,古董的价值也会随着时间的增长而增长,这也是另一种的投资。而当时局混乱,战火纷飞时,百姓一般都会收拾金银细软,以便于随时变现。人们在经济萧条的社会环境下,经济非常动荡,战争随时的到来让各种货币充满了不确定性,而黄金是有避险属性的贵金属,具有高度流动性和普遍接受度,成为了人们重要的财富储备和保值手段,因此那时相对可以随时流通的黄金就成为了大家在不稳定时期追求稳定的一个安全选择。

但是其实这只是一个字面意思,其意思并不是简单的告诉我们盛世应该买古董瓷器,乱世买黄金首饰,更多的是告诉我们的一种观念:就是在面对生活中的不确定性和挑战中,我们需要灵活的转变思维,才能更好的保护自己的财产,避免因为在社会经济环境的不同,给我们带来损失。所以延申到目前国际社会环境上,似乎在俄乌,以色列和中东等地的战争依然在持续,而且看似短期内很难会有结果。因此在乱世这个基本条件里,目前的世界格局依然处于较为动荡的时代。而另一方面由于美联储即将开始对美元的降息,因此以美元作为计价的黄金在美元的降息周期里如果保持其内在价值不变的情况,也势比会因为计价货币的相对贬值而出现标价的上涨。而作为投行反向指标的明灯,散户投资者的冥灯,美国华尔街割韭菜第一投行的高盛,则在今年4月,和本周两次调高了对于黄金今年的价格预测。在4月时,高盛预计黄金今年会达到2400到2700附近。而在短短4个月后,本周高盛给出的预测则达到了2700-3000美元。虽然我本人也是长期看涨黄金,但是高盛这个预测冥灯长期的反向结果,让我现在也很担忧它的乌鸦嘴又说反了。

好了。不开玩笑。我们来简单看一下美国华尔街最新对于黄金价格可能超过3000美元背后判断的依据。根据美国知名财经媒体CNBC采访一位华尔街小基金公司分析师的反馈。他认为,不确定性就是刺激黄金一直上涨最大的动力。而如今这个世界上同时有三件事存在巨大的不确定性,那就是2024年底的美国大选,俄乌战争到底会升级到什么阶段,以及还在日益升级的中东国家之间的关系。这些因素在他看来都是影响今年不论是黄金还是其他资产走势的重要因素。自从以色列刺杀了伊朗的军事高官以来,两国关系就日益禁止。而且伊朗已经公开承诺将会回以加倍的反击。而美国也派遣了航母和核潜艇前往该地区。一旦双方动手,很有可能会严重影响石油运输路线,进而导致油价和其他能源价格的上涨。这也是美国不希望看到的。毕竟我们知道西方国家如果想要压低国内的物价,那石油价格就是第一个需要控制住的商品。而美国如果计划9月加息,那8月的数据就异常关键,因此现在这时一旦动手导致油价上涨,将会使得9月美联储的加息计划可能会进而搁浅。如果美国不降息,意味着股市可能会大跌,进而现在拜登民主党的支持率也会随之大跌。因此在此时关键时刻,美国更希望通过展示其压力和优势来让伊朗觉得没有胜算进而避免战争爆发。而华尔街除了在国际政治上押宝黄金以外,就像我刚才提到的一样,如果中东战争不要扩大,那9月或10月美国就有可能进行第一次降息。那时对于任何的流动交易产品而言都是一个利好。不论从地产,股市到大宗商品和黄金。那对于我们澳洲投资者而言,包括我自己,如果你觉得未来有一些不确定性,那就可以考虑配置一部分的黄金资产,可以是黄金的现货,也可以是黄金的ETF,但是尽量不要买实物,一是容易被盗,二来实物黄金买卖一次的交易成本几乎是10%,极其不划算。因此网上的纸黄金,或者黄金上市基金,就是相对实物来绝不会丢了找不到的理想替代物。

但是我还是重复开头的那个观点。盛世古董,乱世黄金。其实并不仅仅是让我们在动荡的时候投资黄金,因为那时黄金上涨的可能性大。其背后想表达的其实是我们投资者在选择产品时,应该根据社会经济和环境的变化而改变。决不能一成不变。我本人也非常看好黄金可以在2025年中左右达到3000美元高点,但是现在行业冥灯高盛也看好,那我就真的有点犹豫了。。。毕竟,几十年来的反向指路专家的辉煌历史可不是吹的。相信聪明的你,应该会有自己的判断。免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:
Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - W West Texas Intermediate (WTI) West Texas Intermediate (WTI, also referred to as Texas Light Sweet) is an oil benchmark that is central to oil commodity trading. It is one of the three major oil benchmarks used in trading, along with Brent crude and Dubai/Oman. Working Order A Working Order typically refers to either a stop or limit order to open.
Working Orders are used to advise your broker to execute a trade when your desired tradable asset reaches a specified price. Learn more about Working Orders

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - V Variable costs Variable cost refers to an expense which is subject to change when a products sales volumes change. Costs will typically increase or decrease when sales drop or rise, respectively. VIX Short for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the VIX is used to track S&P 500 index volatility.
It is arguably the most well-known volatility index on the market. Learn more about VIX Volatility A market’s volatility is its likelihood of making major, short-term price movements at any time. A high level of volatility can provide opportunity to make profitable trades in a short period of time.
Learn more about Volatility Volume Volume in trading refers to the amount of a particular asset being traded over a certain period of time. It's typically presented alongside price information and offers an extra dimension when examining the price history of an asset. Learn more about using Volume in trading.
Volume-weighted average price VWAP is a technical analysis tool which shows the ratio of an asset's price to its total trade volume. the VWAP provides traders with a measure of the average price a stock has traded at over a given period of time.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - U Unborrowable stock The stock that no one is willing to lend out to short sellers is known as an Unborrowable stock. The traditional means of short selling is impossible, when shares in a company are unborrowable.

Trading terms glossary A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - Y - Z - T Take profit (TP) Learn more about Trading with a Profit Target (Take Profit) Strategy. Tangible assets Tangible assets are a companies physical assets, such as real estate holdings, machinery, manufacturing or computer equipment, and raw materials of value, e.g. timber, ore, etc. Technical analysis Technical analysis is the examination and prediction of price movements in a financial market.
Analysts aim to form accurate predictions of future price movements using information such as historical data, market statistics, trader sentiments and current events impacting a given market. Tom-next Short for ‘tomorrow-next day’, Tom-next is the process of rolling a Forex position from one spot day to the next. This is also sometimes referred to as "the cost of carry" or "financing adjustment".
Trading floor Also referred to as a "trading pit", the trading floor is the area in an exchange where assets are traded. This is most commonly associated with stock and futures exchanges. Trading journal Learn more about using a Trading Journal.
Trading plan A strategy used by individual traders to evaluate assets, risk management and types of tradings. A trading plan will typically be composed of the expected term of trading, and how to accomplish the traders objectives in that time frame. Learn more about Trading Plan Trailing stop A trailing stop is modified type of stop-loss order that automatically follows positive market movements of traders asset.
If the traders position moves positively but then reverses, a trailing stop will lock in the current profit and close the traders position. Learn more about using a Trailing Stop strategy. Treasury stock Treasury stocks are a portion of a company’s shares that it keeps in its own treasury.
These shares do not pay dividends - because a company can't pay itself - and do not count towards the number of shares listed. Trend A sustained upward or downward movement of a particular market or asset. Identifying the beginning of a trend as the time to purchase/open a position, and forecasting the end of trends as the time to sell/close a position, is a key part of market analysis.
Trending shares A company's stock is considered a "trending share" when it moves significantly in comparison to its underlying index; the trend can be up or down, and can represent significant gain or loss.