数字货币CFDs 零隔夜费

Donald Trump has officially declared the Maduro regime in Venezuela a foreign terrorist organisation and ordered a "total and complete blockade" of the country's sanctioned oil tankers.

The U.S. has positioned 11 warships in the Caribbean to enforce the blockade, which could remove 400,000 to 500,000 barrels daily from global supply.

The move sent crude prices jumping over 2% and sparked renewed concerns about supply stability heading into 2026.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles succinctly summarised the situation as: “Trump wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle."

Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $60.33 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.6% to $56.69.

If crude maintains its $60 per barrel price, analysts project the blockade, combined with potential Russian sanctions, could push prices toward $70 as Venezuela's already-devastated economy faces collapse.

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Bank of Japan to Hike Rates to Highest Level in Decades

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to their highest level in three decades this Friday, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to lift the benchmark rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.

While modest by global standards, this marks a landmark step in Japan's departure from decades of near-zero rates and unconventional easing.

The decision comes amid significant market turbulence. Japanese government bond yields have surged, with 30-year bonds hitting record highs and 10-year yields reaching 19-year peaks.

The volatility stems partly from concerns under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who recently approved a $118 billion stimulus package with over 60% financed through borrowing.

While Friday's hike appears certain, policymakers have signalled caution as they push rates toward levels estimated between 1% and 2.5%.

Ueda's post-meeting press conference will be closely watched for signals about future increases.

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Micron Forecasts Blowout Earnings on Booming AI Market

Micron Technology is projecting second-quarter earnings of $8.42 per share, nearly double Wall Street's $4.78 estimate.

Micron shares surged 7% in after-hours trading as markets reacted to the news that the AI-driven memory chip race is showing no signs of slowing.

As one of only three major suppliers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, Micron sits at a chokepoint in AI infrastructure.

The HBM specialised chips are essential for training and deploying generative AI models, and current demand is dramatically outpacing supply.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra revealed that supply tightness will extend beyond 2026, with Micron expecting to fulfil only 50-70% of key customer demand in the medium term.

Micron projects revenue of $18.70 billion this quarter versus analyst estimates of $14.20 billion. The company has retooled their operations toward AI applications, even dissolving its consumer "Crucial" brand to concentrate on AI data centre demand.

HBM chips are now the bottleneck in AI system performance, and suppliers who can deliver at scale have the potential to capture large amounts of value over the coming years.

过去两年，贵金属市场给了投资者一堂非常生动的课。黄金一路新高，白银先按兵不动、再突然加速，走势看似分化，背后却是一条逐渐清晰的主线：一个是货币信用的锚，一个是新一轮工业周期的放大器。

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如果说黄金解决的是对未来不确定性的担忧，那么白银正在回答另一个问题：当AI、数据中心、新能源真正进入规模化阶段，哪些资源会成为瓶颈。

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答案里，一定有白银。

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白银的逻辑，正在从老故事变成新变量

长期以来，白银被视为黄金的影子资产，涨跌节奏更多取决于金银比、货币环境和投机情绪。但这一次不同，工业需求正在成为白银价格中越来越重要的一块拼图。

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过去十年，白银需求的核心增长来自三条线：光伏、新能源汽车和电子产业。但在2025年底，市场第一次真正意识到，数据中心和AI，可能才是下一阶段最具爆发力的增量。

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从全球数据看，自2000年以来，数据中心数量增长了11倍，但真正夸张的是IT电力容量，从不足1GW提升到接近50GW，增长超过50倍。这意味着什么？意味着单位数据中心里，塞进了越来越多高密度、高算力、高功耗的硬件。

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而这些硬件，有一个共同特征：离不开白银。

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为什么数据中心离不开白银？

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根据世界白银协会最新分析文章，白银并不是因为贵才被用在数据中心，而是因为性能上几乎没有替代品。

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第一，导电性。白银是所有金属中导电性最强的，比铜高约6%。在服务器、GPU、交换机这种全年不间断运行的设备里，哪怕损耗降低一个百分点，长期都是巨大的能耗差异。

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第二，热导性。数据中心最大的成本之一是散热。白银的高热导性能帮助芯片和电源模块更快把热量导走，降低对复杂液冷系统的依赖。

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第三，稳定性和耐腐蚀性。在高负荷、高温环境下，白银能保持连接可靠，延长设备寿命。

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具体到应用层面，白银广泛存在于电气触点、银镀连接器、GPU与服务器芯片的封装焊料、热界面材料中。AI算力越密集，这些部件用得越多。

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所以，哪怕我们暂时无法精确计算每个数据中心消耗多少克白银，只要知道算力在指数级增长，就足以判断方向。

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看白银，开始要盯资本开支

如果说过去看白银，主要看光伏装机、新能源车销量和库存数据，那么现在需要多加两个观察窗口。

一个在北美。Meta、Microsoft、Alphabet、Amazon、Oracle这几家公司的资本开支，是AI算力投资最直接的晴雨表。芯片、服务器、数据中心，本质都是对白银的间接需求。

另一个在中国。华为、阿里、腾讯、百度、美团、京东等公司的AI基础设施投入，同样值得持续跟踪。今年阿里提到的三年数千亿级别AI基建规划，本身就是一个重要信号。

当这些公司的资本开支进入持续高位，白银的工业需求弹性，会比很多人想象得大。

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黄金仍是底盘，但节奏会放缓

相比白银的结构性变化，黄金的逻辑其实非常稳定。

长期看，黄金锚定的是美元信用。全球主要经济体债务高企，财政赤字常态化，财政主导逐渐取代货币主导，这是支撑黄金的大背景。央行持续购金，本质上是在对冲主权信用风险。

中期看，黄金仍然受制于美债实际利率。只要实际利率下行，黄金就有空间；反之，上行压力会出现。

展望2026年，一个相对清晰的判断是：黄金不太可能复制过去两年的单边强势。上半年在降息预期和政策惯性下仍有支撑，但下半年随着政治周期、通胀政策调整、风险定价下降，金价更可能进入高位震荡，甚至阶段性回调。

这并不意味着黄金逻辑失效，而是它更适合作为配置资产，而非高弹性博弈工具。

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白银与黄金的策略差异

在实际操作层面，黄金和白银的策略应该分开看。

黄金适合的是长期持有和风险对冲。它的作用是压舱石，而不是发动机。越是在宏观不确定性高、资产相关性上升的时候，黄金的价值越明显。

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白银则更偏向趋势型和周期型资产。它同时受益于货币环境和工业扩张，但波动远大于黄金。金银比已经从高位明显回落，也提醒投资者，白银进入了更拥挤的阶段。

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因此，对白银更合理的策略不是一把梭，而是在趋势确认的前提下，控制仓位、动态调整。尤其是在短期快速上涨后，留足安全边际非常重要。

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如果用一句话总结当前的贵金属市场，那就是：黄金稳住底盘，白银开始走向舞台中央。

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黄金的故事，是关于信用、制度和长期不确定性；白银的故事，则是关于AI、电力、算力和工业升级。当这两条逻辑在同一个时间窗口共振，贵金属自然会成为资金绕不开的方向。

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但舞台再热闹，也需要节奏。接着奏乐接着舞，不代表要一直跳到天亮。看清逻辑，分清角色，控制仓位，可能比单纯判断涨跌更重要。

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希望这篇文章，能给你一些有用的参考。

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As December 2025 approaches its final trading days, investors are assessing whether seasonal factors may again influence year-end price action.

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• The Santa Claus rally has delivered gains in 70 of the past 97 years, but history is no guarantee.
• Technology, retail, and consumer discretionary sectors have historically led with 1.9-2.1 per cent average gains during the Christmas period.
• Recent market rallies, AI weariness, and a hawkish Fed put doubts around the Santa Rally.

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The seven-day Santa rally window runs from 24 December through 5 January 2026.

This period has historically outperformed average market conditions, driven by holiday optimism, thin trading volumes, year-end bonus spending, tax-loss completions, and institutional portfolio rebalancing.

5 assets worth watching this Christmas

1. Technology stocks

Technology stocks have historically been standout performers during the Santa rally period, averaging gains of 2.1 per cent across the seven-day window, although results vary significantly year to year.

The Nasdaq Composite typically posts stronger returns than broader indices, with an 82 per cent historical win rate for December-January performance.

However, tech stocks do currently face a challenging setup. The Nasdaq gained 19 per cent year-to-date (YTD) but has come under pressure in recent months, with AI-related stocks experiencing sentiment dips.

Key drivers:

• E-commerce momentum: Black Friday 2025 spending hit a record US$11.8 billion, with sustained demand through December as last-minute purchases drive revenue for Amazon and digital payment processors.
• Holiday infrastructure play: Cloud computing, semiconductors, and digital payments capture the backend of holiday spending surges, benefiting from both retail transactions and year-end enterprise spending.‍
• Concentration risk: Five companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon) account for 30 per cent of major index returns. Down periods for these companies, as seen during recent AI-sentiment-driven volatility, could bring down the sector as a whole.

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Source: Statista

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2. Gold

Gold enters one of its strongest seasonal periods from mid-December through February, having posted gains every year since 2015 during this window. 

The gold price is maintaining strength throughout December despite the dollar's resilience, positioning well as the Christmas jewellery season peaks.

Key drivers:

• Seasonal jewellery demand: Approximately two-thirds of annual gold production flows into jewellery fabrication. Christmas, Lunar New Year (February 2026), and the Indian wedding season create regular buying patterns as merchants stock up in December.
• Dollar weakness patterns: December has historically been the dollar's weakest month, with negative bias from 22 December onwards. Gold's inverse correlation to the dollar could provide upside momentum during this period.
• Real yields environment: With the Fed cutting rates to 3.5-3.75 per cent while inflation remains around 3 per cent, real yields stay relatively low, potentially supporting higher gold valuations.‍
• Central bank accumulation: Continued central bank purchases and year-end institutional portfolio rebalancing could provide additional support.

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3. EUR/USD

December has historically been the most bullish month for EUR/USD, with the world's most-traded currency pair posting an average return of +1.2 per cent over the past 50 years. 

The US dollar regularly shows clear weakness during the Santa rally period, particularly from 22 December onwards. However, the Fed's hawkish rate cut has provided some dollar support this year.

Key drivers:

• Holiday liquidity dynamics: Lower institutional trading volumes during the holiday period reduce dollar support as retail traders and smaller participants dominate. Thin markets can amplify moves in either direction.
• Year-end rebalancing: European and Asian investors often repatriate funds or rebalance portfolios at year-end, creating demand for non-dollar currencies that typically support EUR and AUD against USD.‍
• Dollar strength from hawkish Fed: The Fed's December rate cut came with guidance of fewer cuts in 2026. This has kept the dollar elevated despite lower rates, possibly limiting the ability of EUR/USD seasonal patterns to influence the market.

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4. Retail stocks

Consumer discretionary and retail stocks historically outperform during the holiday period, with the sector averaging 1.9-2.1 per cent gains during the Santa rally window. Holiday shopping accounts for 30-40 per cent of annual retail revenue for many companies, making this period crucial for full-year performance.

Key drivers:

• Record holiday traffic: A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday weekend, up from 197 million in 2024. November spending surged 3.8 per cent year-over-year, with total holiday spending projected to exceed US$1 trillion for the first time.
• High-income shoppers trend: Value-oriented retailers (TJX, Five Below) and those with strong omnichannel presence are capturing a disproportionate share of value over retailers targeting low-middle income earners.
• Post-Fed tailwind: The December rate cut provides marginal relief through lower borrowing costs, potentially extending holiday spending into late December as credit becomes more accessible.

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5. Bitcoin

Bitcoin's December performance has been highly inconsistent, with a median return of -3.2 per cent, contrasting with traditional Santa rally patterns. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around US$87,500, down approximately 30 per cent from its October all-time high of US$126,210. 

However, there are signals that the historically volatile asset could see a Santa-led bounce this year.

Key drivers:

• Institutional infrastructure in place: More than US$120 billion is now held in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which provides a framework that could support capital flows if risk sentiment improves, although inflows are not assured.
• Pro-crypto policy expectations: Discussion around potential developments such as a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and the CLARITY Act could influence sentiment going into 2026, although outcomes remain uncertain.‍
• Four-year cycle inflection point: The recent sell-off came roughly 18 months after the most recent Bitcoin halving, a point linked to turning points in some past cycles, with the four-year narrative potentially influencing market behaviour.

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Risks to watch

• The December Fed meeting delivered a 25 basis point cut, but the hawkish tone has set expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2026.
• The Nasdaq's 19 per cent YTD gain has pushed valuations to elevated levels as AI-stock sentiment begins to dip. 
• Five companies account for 30 per cent of index returns, placing portfolio concentration at concerning levels.
• Reduced holiday liquidity amplifies both moves and risks. Thin trading volumes can create exaggerated reactions to headlines, particularly around geopolitical events or economic data.

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Is Santa coming to town?

The Santa Claus rally remains one of the better-known seasonal patterns in financial markets, but a historical hit rate of around 72 per cent also implies meaningful years where it does not play out.

A more balanced way to view the Santa rally window is as one input among many. 

Seasonal observations can be considered alongside technical levels, fundamental drivers, and risk management — particularly given how quickly sentiment can change in thin holiday conditions.

And, if you can, take time away from the screens and enjoy the break.