市场资讯及洞察

Gold's breakthrough above US$5,000 and silver's surge through US$100 signal this year could be one for the history books for metal traders (one way or another).

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Quick facts

• Elevated safe-haven demand lifts Gold targets from US$5,400 to US$6,000 after early-year US$5,000 breakout.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) and data-centre infrastructure ramp-up could help drive silver and copper demand.
• Continued geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy could trigger metal volatility throughout the year.

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Top 5 metals to watch in 2026

1. Gold

Gold's breakout over US$5,100 arrived three quarters ahead of some forecasts. With Bank of America quickly raising its end-of-year target to US$6,000 and Goldman Sachs projecting US$5,400, the safe-haven commodity remains the biggest asset in focus for 2026.

Key drivers:

• Central banks are currently buying an average of 60 tonnes of gold per month, compared to 17 tonnes pre-2022.
• Two Fed rate cuts are priced in for 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
• Trump tariff policies, Middle East tensions, and fiscal sustainability concerns are keeping safe-haven demand elevated.
• Gold's share of total financial assets hit 2.8% in Q3 2025, with room to grow as retail FOMO kicks in.

What to watch

• Jerome Powell is set to be replaced as Fed chair in May 2026. Actual policy direction post-replacement may differ from current market expectations for cuts.
• If geopolitical hedges into safe havens remain or if there is an unwinding like post- 2024 US election.
• The potential weaponisation of dollar asset holdings by European nations as a response to US tariffs.

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2. Silver

Silver is the metal that has benefited the most from the 2025 AI boom, with its surge to US$112 all-time-highs to kick off 2026 (70% above fundamental value as per Bank of America signal), demonstrating its volatile potential.

Key drivers

• Industrial demand from AI infrastructure, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors and data centres currently has no viable substitute for silver's conductivity.
• Six consecutive years of supply deficit, with above-ground stocks depleting and recycling bottlenecks limiting secondary supply.
• Policy optics may matter. The US decision to add silver to its list of “critical minerals” has been cited as a potential factor in volatility, including around trade policy risk.
• Retail participation can amplify price moves, particularly when the demand for gold becomes “too expensive”.

What to watch

• If solar panel demand continues its trajectory, or if 2025 was the peak.
• Whether the recycling supply responds to record prices by increasing silver refining and material processing capacity.
• How exchange inventory and lease rates move as potential signals of physical tightness.

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3. Copper

Copper's 2026 story hinges on continued data centre demand, renewable energy infrastructure growth, and China's struggling property market.

Key drivers

• Data centre copper consumption is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from 2025.
• Worker strikes in Chile and Grasberg restart delays are keeping the Copper market structurally tight.
• The US tariff decision on refined copper imports is expected in mid-2026 (15%+ currently anticipated), creating potential stockpiling and trade flow distortions.
• Goldman Sachs has forecast that power grid infrastructure and EV buildout could add "another United States" worth of copper demand by 2030.
• Current Chinese property weakness is creating demand uncertainty, potentially offsetting infrastructure spending.

What to watch

• Whether Grasberg ramps production smoothly or faces further setbacks.
• Chinese property market stimulus effectiveness.
• Actual tariff implementation timing and magnitude.
• Yangshan premium movements signalling real physical demand versus financial positioning.

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4. Aluminium

Trading near three-year highs of US$3,200, aluminium faces continued tightness into 2026 as China's capacity ceiling forces global markets to adjust.

Key drivers

• China's 45 million tonne capacity cap was reached in 2025. For the first time in decades, Chinese output cannot expand, potentially ending 80% of global supply growth.
• As copper prices increase, Reuters has reported that some manufacturers have been substituting aluminium for copper in certain applications as relative prices shift.

What to watch

• South32 has said Mozal Aluminium is expected to be placed on care and maintenance around 15 March 2026, thus removing Mozambique's 560,000 tonne significant supply.
• If Indonesian and Chinese offshore capacity additions can compensate for Chinese domestic ceiling.
• Century Aluminium's 50,000 tonne Mount Holly restart in Q2 could provide a signal for the broader industry as the smelter is expected to reach full production by 30 June 2026.

5. Platinum

Platinum's breakout above US$2,800 follows three consecutive years of supply deficit and increased adoption of hydrogen fuel cells (for which it is a vital component).

Key drivers

• The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has forecast a significant supply deficit of 850,000 ounces in 2026 which could drain inventories, with limited new production coming online.
• WPIC forecasts 875,000 to 900,000 oz uptake by 2030 for heavy-duty trucks, buses, and green hydrogen electrolysers.
• Palladium-to-platinum substitution in catalytic converters is increasing in EV production.

What to watch

• Supply response from producers. Platreef and Bakubung are adding 150,000 oz, but production discipline could limit a broader ramp-up.
• US tariffs on Russian palladium could create spillover demand for platinum in EV production.
• The pace of hydrogen infrastructure investment and heavy-duty vehicle adoption rates in Europe, China, and US.
• Chinese jewellery demand could come into play. Just a 1% substitution from gold could widen the platinum deficit by 10% of the global supply.

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在过去两周里，白银市场经历了极端剧烈的震荡与高位博弈：价格一度快速攀升至历史极高水平，随后出现剧烈回落，反映出市场在避险情绪、基本面需求与投机力量之间的动态平衡。这一阶段白银的表现不仅成为贵金属市场的焦点，也凸显出当前全球经济风险偏好和宏观预期的复杂变化。

一、价格表现：高峰与震荡并存

自年初以来，白银价格持续上涨，并在近期迎来非常显著的高点突破。本周一，白银价格在近段时间内冲高至历史高位——一度触及每盎司约 117.75 美元 的峰值水平，盘中涨幅一度接近 14%,创下自2008年以来的最大单日涨幅。上涨之后的价格快速回落，最终在震荡中收复1%涨幅收盘。反映出，在连续多日由动量推动、追涨情绪主导的行情之后，这轮上涨已经变得相对脆弱。

同一时间段内，黄金虽也创新高，但白银的价格波动要更加剧烈，表现出更高的弹性和交易热度。国内市场对应的沪银主连合约也在本轮行情中刷新了历史高点，盘中涨幅显著。

二、推动白银上涨的核心因素

白银价格在这两周内的大幅波动并非偶然，它是多重基本面与市场情绪因素共同作用的结果：

1. 全球供需高度紧张

从供给端看，全球白银市场已连续多年处于供给短缺状态。截至最近数据（约 2025 年末），白银产量约 3.18 万吨，而实际需求达到了约 3.55 万吨，现实中每年存在接近 8 亿盎司的累计缺口。供应端无法快速响应需求增长，因为全球大部分白银是伴生矿产品，其生产扩张依赖于铜、铅锌矿的开发节奏，且新矿开发周期长达 5–10 年。供给结构的僵化，成为白银价格持续上行的重要基本面支撑。

此外，即使在高价区间，工业消费仍保持强劲，特别是在新能源、光伏、电子设备等领域对白银的需求持续增长，这进一步加剧了供应紧张的局面。

2. 避险需求与宏观不确定性

宏观经济的多重不确定性是近期贵金属走强的重要逻辑背景之一。通胀预期、货币政策路径的不确定性、全球地缘风险等因素，使白银不仅具备避险功能，还因其对市场情绪敏感而呈现高波动性。今日，美国对韩国商品提高关税至25%，以及市场对美联储政策和主席人选的猜测，加剧了投资者的不确定性。此外，财政支出和货币政策压力也促使部分资金从债券和货币资产转向贵金属，形成所谓的贬值交易。

3. 美元与利率预期影响

美元走势与美国货币政策预期对贵金属价格影响显著。随着市场对美联储未来可能降息的预期升温，以及美元在多重政策不确定性下有所承压，白银作为非收益资产吸引了更多资产配置需求。这种“美元弱、避险升”组合在贵金属市场整体放大了资金对价格上行的共振。

三、短期震荡与风险提示

此次白银行情的一个明显特征是急涨之后伴随急跌与回撤，反映出市场对“过热状态”的风险意识正在增强。

分析人士认为，这种极端振幅表明白银部分上涨动力已接近短期极限，且高企价格开始对工业使用产生“挤压”效应，迫使光伏等行业加速寻求替代材料，从而削弱部分实需支撑。这种供需博弈下的潜在阻力，是当前白银短期回落不可忽视的风险因素。

虽然工业需求是白银的基本面支撑之一，但高价会对需求端形成反压。例如光伏等行业可能加快替代材料布局，减少对白银的边际需求，这在极端高价位很可能削弱部分基本面支撑，从而影响中长期供需平衡。

四、未来走势展望

从长期供需基本面来看，白银的结构性紧张、工业需求增长与避险功能并存，为其价格中枢提供了较强支撑。只要这些基本因素未发生根本性逆转，白银在未来阶段仍有潜力维持高位波动。

不过，从技术面和市场情绪出发，高位的急速上涨属于典型的“爆发型行情”，短线极易出现回调或震荡加剧，特别是在遇到宏观数据或全球金融风险事件时，价格波动可能进一步放大。

因此，在关注白银中长期上涨逻辑的同时，需要警惕短期波动风险，避免在高位盲目追涨，并重点关注供需基本面数据、美元走势和全球避险情绪的变化。

总结

基本面供需紧张、工业需求增长和宏观不确定性构成了白银中长期支撑，价格快速透支上涨动能，叠加高位获利了结与需求端压力，短期波动风险显著，需要投资者保持谨慎。

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FX markets enter an important window with a Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference, US ISM activity data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures all due.

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Quick facts

• The upcoming Fed policy decision and press conference are closely watched for guidance on the potential timing of rate cuts, with implications for US Treasury yields and USD direction. 
• Broad USD selling has intensified over the last 48 hours. The move has coincided with renewed tariff rhetoric and heightened sensitivity to FX intervention narratives. 
• ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday, 2 February, with ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, 4 February, providing timely insight into US growth momentum. 
• German CPI, euro area GDP and unemployment, China PMIs, and Australian labour data provide regional context, particularly for EUR and AUD crosses.

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USD/JPY

What to watch

The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent press conference are key events influencing US Treasury yields. 

Any shift in tone around inflation progress, economic risks, or rate cut timing expectations may affect yield differentials and near-term USD sensitivity. 

Recent broad USD weakness, reinforced by tariff-related headlines and intervention sensitivity, has added downside pressure to the USD. 

On the JPY side, Japan inflation signals, including Tokyo CPI, are relevant as indicators of domestic price trends and potential policy direction. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 30 Jan: Japan Tokyo CPI (January) 
• Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference 
• Mon 2 Feb: US ISM Manufacturing PMI 
• Wed 4 Feb: US ISM Services PMI 

Technical snapshot

USDJPY has broken lower from its recent consolidation zone, with downside range evident over the last 48 hours. Price has moved down to the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and is testing a level not seen since October 2025.

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EUR/USD

What to watch

The Fed decision and press conference may influence EUR/USD primarily through USD moves linked to Treasury yield reactions. 

On the EUR side, German CPI will show inflation trends, while euro area flash GDP and unemployment data inform the regional growth outlook. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 29 Jan: Germany CPI (preliminary) 
• Thu 29 Jan: Eurozone flash GDP, Q4 2025 
• Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve decision and press conference 
• Fri 30 Jan: Eurozone unemployment rate

Technical snapshot

EURUSD has extended above a prior resistance level, with expanded daily ranges and strong momentum. Price action in other USD crosses suggests the move may be reflecting USD weakness, rather than a material shift in euro area fundamentals.

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EUR/AUD

What to watch

Alongside euro area growth numbers, Australian employment data may influence near-term EUR/AUD sensitivity ahead of the RBA policy decision next week. 

China's official PMIs remain relevant, as shifts in Chinese activity expectations can influence AUD via commodity demand and regional risk sentiment. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 29 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Detailed (Dec 2025), 11:30am AEDT 
• Fri 31 Jan: China official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs 
• Tue 4 Feb: RBA policy decision 

Technical snapshot

EUR/AUD has decisively broken below its prior support zone, with price now testing levels not seen since April 2025. Momentum remains negative, consistent with a renewed downside phase rather than consolidation.

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Bottom line

The Fed decision and press conference, US PMI data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures are clustered in a short window. 

Markets will be watching whether the USD weakness evident over the last 48 hours extends further.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 29 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Friday, 30 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

iPhone

The iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on unit demand, product mix (including higher-end models), and any signals on upgrade momentum and regional trends.

Services

Investors are likely to focus on growth across areas such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other subscriptions, alongside any commentary on average revenue per user (ARPU). The size and engagement of Apple’s installed base remain central to overall performance.

Wearables, home and accessories

This segment includes products such as Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones, home-related devices, and accessories. Investors are likely to watch revenue trends in this segment as an indicator of discretionary consumer demand. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has flagged tariff and component cost pressures in prior commentary. Markets may remain sensitive to gross margin commentary and any signals of incremental cost pressure or mitigation strategies. 

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What happened last quarter

Apple’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q4 2025) highlighted record September-quarter revenue and EPS, alongside record Services revenue and continued emphasis on installed-base strength.  

The prior update also included discussion of holiday-quarter expectations and cost headwinds (including tariffs), which have influenced expected margins and management guidance.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$102.5 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.85 (diluted) 
• iPhone revenue: US$49.03 billion 
• Services revenue: US$28.75 billion 
• Net income: US$27.5 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Apple shares rose in after-hours trading following the release, as investors assessed the results against analyst expectations and management’s holiday-quarter commentary, including tariff-related cost pressures and regional demand considerations. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to year-on-year EPS growth, with markets also focused on the revenue outcome and gross margins, given the scale and importance of the holiday quarter for Apple’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$2.65 
• Revenue: about US$138 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$8.1 

*All above points observed as of 26 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Apple may be sensitive to any disappointment on holiday-quarter revenue, Services momentum, or margin commentary, given the stock’s large index weight and the importance of this reporting period. 

Listed options were implying an indicative move of around ±3% to ±4% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 25 January 2026.  Implied volatility was approximately 29% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Apple’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Asia-Pacific markets head into the week with Australia’s CPI as the key domestic catalyst, Japan’s month-end inflation and activity data keeping JPY and equities in focus, and China’s official PMI providing an important read on regional growth momentum.

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Quick facts

• China: NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December 2025. Consensus for Saturday’s release is 50.2. 
• Australia: CPI, Australia (Dec) is the key local catalyst, with implications for rate expectations and AUD pricing. 
• Japan: Tokyo CPI and month-end labour/activity data keep USD/JPY and Nikkei futures in focus following last week’s BoJ meeting. 
• Global backdrop: US earnings momentum, US CPI expectations and geopolitical developments remain secondary but relevant drivers for Asia-Pacific risk sentiment.

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China

Attention turns to China’s official PMI after December’s improvement saw the PMI move back above 50—a level commonly interpreted as expansion in the survey, though month-to-month readings can be volatile. 

Consensus suggests a rise to 50.2; if met, it may help reinforce the view that growth momentum is stabilising into early 2026. 

Key release

• Sat 31 Jan: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Jan)

How markets may respond

• Regional equities and risk: Sustained PMI readings above 50 could support broader Asia risk appetite and materials-linked sectors. A reversal below 50 may temper recent optimism.
• AUD spillover: China-sensitive assets, including the AUD and materials stocks on the ASX, may react alongside domestic CPI outcomes.

Japan

Following last week’s BoJ meeting, focus shifts to Tokyo CPI and month-end activity data. These releases late in the week may shape near-term expectations around Japan’s inflation trajectory and the tone of the dataflow.

Key events

• Thu 29 Jan: Tokyo CPI (Jan) (medium sensitivity) 
• Fri 30 Jan: Japan unemployment (Dec), retail sales (Dec), industrial production (Dec) (medium sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• USD/JPY: Month-end inflation and activity data can drive front-end rate repricing, with USD/JPY remaining a key transmission channel.
• JP225 (Nikkei futures): The contract has recently traded in a defined range. Market participants may monitor the ~54,250 area on the upside and ~52,250 on the downside as reference points, with price action around these levels often used to gauge whether the range is persisting. 

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the CPI release.  The outcome may influence rate expectations, with the next scheduled RBA decision still in the balance.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures imply around a 56% probability of a cash-rate increase at the next scheduled RBA decision (implied pricing can change quickly and is not a forecast). 

AUD pricing is likely to remain sensitive alongside broader global risk conditions. 

Key release

• Wed 28 Jan: CPI, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• ASX 200: Rate-sensitive sectors may react more to the policy implications than the headline CPI number, particularly given recent strength in materials.
• AUD/USD: CPI outcomes may influence whether AUD/USD sustains around/above its current zone or drifts back toward prior trading ranges. 

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.