GO Markets，让交易更进一步

近期全球市场的核心变化，并非单一数据或单一事件，而是风险定价逻辑的再平衡。中东地缘局势反复、美伊关系阶段性紧张，使市场对潜在冲突的敏感度显著抬升。尽管美国方面释放出“局势可控”的安抚信号，短期恐慌有所缓解，但相关不确定性仍然牵动着全球资产配置方向。

更值得关注的是，在地缘风险背景下，中美经贸与科技层面的博弈出现新的变量。中国通过关税、反垄断监管及部分技术与网络安全层面的审查措施，释放出更为明确的政策信号。这种变化并未引发市场剧烈波动，但正在悄然改变板块间的相对强弱结构。

从美股表现来看，风险偏好出现阶段性回落。科技板块承压，三大股指集体收低，其中以科技权重较高的纳指跌幅相对靠前。与之形成对照的是，国防军工、关键矿产与资源相关板块获得资金青睐，反映出在不确定性上升阶段，市场更倾向于防御属性与战略资源方向。

政策层面，美国近期密集出台行政指令，围绕关键矿物供应、芯片应用场景及产业安全展开部署。与此同时，最高法院对部分贸易政策的裁决进程仍存在不确定性，也为市场预期留下想象空间。宏观数据方面，PPI阶段性反弹、褐皮书对经济与通胀的表述偏中性偏稳，使得市场对短期货币政策转向的预期进一步降温。

整体而言，当前市场并未进入系统性风险阶段，但“高估值成长 → 防御与资源”的轮动逻辑正在逐步显现，资金配置思路更趋谨慎，也更注重现实约束。

年初美股在强势起跑后，并未出现单边加速，而是进入震荡上行、结构分化逐步显现的阶段。本周正处于年内资金重新布局的重要时间窗口，市场一方面消化宏观经济与政策预期的变化，另一方面也在重新评估风险资产的定价逻辑。在多重变量交织影响下，整体风险偏好维持在相对积极水平，但不同资产与板块之间的表现差异明显，轮动特征愈发突出。

从指数层面看，美股整体保持韧性，但波动并未消失。
截至 1 月 12 日，美股三大指数延续年初以来的上行趋势。道琼斯工业指数再创历史新高，反映传统蓝筹股在不确定环境中依然具备防御与配置价值；标普 500 指数同样刷新收盘纪录，显示资金继续向核心资产集中；纳斯达克指数表现稳健，科技板块在震荡中保持相对强势。12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示同比增速为 2.7%，核心 CPI 略低于预期，整体通胀未出现明显加速迹象，同时就业等数据延续稳健态势，这被市场解读为经济增长放缓，这一背景下，对货币政策继续大幅收紧的担忧有所降温，为风险资产提供了一定的基本面支撑。从市场定价来看，交易员依旧倾向于认为年中开启降息的可能性较高，当前预期集中在 6 月前后。

推动市场上行的核心动力，来自盈利预期改善与“经济软着陆”判断的强化。
一方面，随着新一轮财报季临近，市场对企业盈利前景的预期有所上修。部分科技巨头释放出的积极信号，增强了投资者对中长期成长逻辑的信心，尤其是在 AI、半导体等方向，资金持续加码，成为支撑指数的重要力量。另一方面，宏观数据整体呈现出“放缓但未失速”的特征，就业数据释放出经济降温却依旧稳健的信号，使市场对美国经济实现软着陆的预期进一步巩固，从而缓解了对激进紧缩政策的担忧。

风险偏好虽在修复，但市场整体仍保持克制。
本周行情并未演变为全面风险追逐，而是呈现出进攻与防守并行的特征。成长股、小盘股以及部分高弹性主题表现活跃，成交量放大反映出资金愿意在相对高位参与配置；与此同时，避险资产同样受到青睐，贵金属价格走强显示部分资金仍在为潜在不确定性进行对冲。这种“风险资产上涨、避险资产不弱”的组合，体现出当前市场情绪并非单边乐观。

结构性分化加剧，板块轮动成为本周主旋律。
从行业表现来看，金融与周期板块内部差异明显，部分受益于经济复苏与利率环境的子行业表现尚可，但在政策不确定性影响下，银行及信用相关板块波动加大。科技板块同样呈现分化特征，头部龙头继续为指数提供支撑，而估值偏高、基本面尚待验证的细分领域则面临阶段性回调压力。相比之下，小盘股和主题型资产表现更为活跃，显示资金正在从高度集中的权重股，向更具成长弹性和性价比的方向扩散。

政策预期依然是影响市场节奏的关键变量。
本周围绕美联储政策独立性的讨论，对市场情绪造成了短期冲击，也提醒投资者货币政策路径仍存在不确定性。尽管当前基本面整体尚可，但未来降息的节奏、幅度以及政策表态的变化，仍可能成为引发市场波动的重要触发点。随着财报季逐步展开，企业盈利能否兑现预期，也将对估值形成直接检验。

展望与策略思路

短期
CPI、PPI 以及初请失业金人数等数据，将直接影响市场对通胀走势和美联储政策路径的判断，可能成为短期波动的重要触发因素。

随着财报季逐步展开，企业盈利表现及管理层指引将对当前估值形成验证。

中长期来看，在风险偏好回升但不确定性仍存的环境下，投资策略更适合保持均衡：一方面继续关注具备长期逻辑的优质成长和 AI 相关龙头，另一方面留意小盘股与价值板块在政策转向周期中的阶段性机会，同时注重仓位管理与风险控制，避免过度集中。

‍

As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve. 

‍

Quick facts:

• US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
• JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
• Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
• President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
• Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.

‍

United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings

What to watch:

The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.

Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.

Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.‍

Key releases and events:

• Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
• Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
• Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
• Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
• Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
• Throughout the week: Fed member speeches

How markets may respond:

S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.

USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.

With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.

Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.

‍

UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength

What to watch:

In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.

In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.

Key releases and events:

Eurozone

• Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)

UK

• Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
• Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.

DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.

FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.

‍

US and Europe calendar summary (AEDT)

• Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
• Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
• Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
• Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue

‍

Bottom line

• If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
• If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
• If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
• For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.

‍