The week ahead – RBNZ rate decision, USD, AUD and JPY inflation data
Lachlan Meakin
21/3/2024
•
0 min read
Share this post
Copy URL
FX markets enter the new week with market sentiment firmly risk-on with all-time highs seen in US and Japanese indexes after a blowout earnings report from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) sent stocks surging. Ahead this week we have key inflation data out of the US, Australia and Japan along with a RBNZ rate decision which is certainly in play. The Charts to watch this week Gold – XAUUSD Despite the buoyant market sentiment gold gained last week as the USD chopped around without real direction.
XAUUSD finding good support at the 2020 USD an ounce level in the second half of the week. This will be a key level to watch coming into Thursdays PCE inflation data out of the US a cooler than expected reading could see the USD decline continue and likely to add to golds bullish recovery. USDJPY Japanese inflation data released Thursday is expected to show a sharp drop in January due to a high base last year this could impact the JPY even further, raising doubts around one of the Bank of Japan’s two conditions for policy normalisation and be bullish for USDJPY.
Though above 150 there is the specter of BoJ intervention such as we saw at these levels late in 2022. Currently 150 has become a support level for USDJPY, but upside in this pair seems capped with little upside momentum shown recently, FX traders no doubt cautious at these levels. AUDNZD Both AUD and NZD outperformed last week as market optimism and steps by Chinese authorities to support their stock market lifted both the Antipodean currencies.
NZD did outperform the Aussie though, with AUDNZD hitting new 9-month and 2024 lows. This week will be a big one for AUDNZD traders, with Aussie CPI expected to rise and a RBNZ rate decision where the bank is expected to hold rates both happening on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a 30% of a hike from the RBNZ, so whichever way they go expect some volatility in NZD crosses over this announcement.
Full Economic calendar of the week ahead at the following link: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
March’s foreign exchange (FX) markets could be shaped by several high-impact releases clustered around the first half of the month. China PMIs, Australia GDP, Japan GDP and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting could all influence FX sentiment as the month progresses.
Quick facts
US rate expectations remain stable, with CME FedWatch implying a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting.
China PMIs, CPI/PPI and trade data will help shape early-month regional risk tone.
Australia's GDP, RBA decision, labour force data and CPI create a concentrated domestic event window for AUD.
Japan GDP and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting may influence domestic yield repricing and JPY volatility.
Euro area CPI, industrial production and the ECB Monetary Policy Decision remain key for EUR stability.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm Payrolls: 12:30 am, 7 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 pm, 11 March (AEDT)
Retail Sales: 11:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve policy decision: 5:00 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve press conference: 5:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD remains primarily driven by inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve pricing.
CME FedWatch pricing indicates that markets are assigning a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests positioning is currently anchored around a pause, increasing sensitivity to any inflation surprise that could shift expectations.
With a pause largely priced in, USD direction may hinge more on inflation trajectory and longer-term policy expectations than the decision itself. Firmer CPI or resilient labour data could reinforce yield support.
Euro area CPI (flash estimate): 10:00 pm, 3 March (AEDT)
Euro area industrial production: 9:00 pm, 13 March (AEDT)
ECB Monetary Policy Decision: 12:15 am, 20 March (AEDT)
ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 20 March (AEDT)
Eurozone flash PMI: 8:00 pm, 24 March (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to inflation persistence and whether growth data stabilise expectations around ECB policy.
Sticky inflation or improved activity data could limit easing expectations and support the EUR. Softer inflation and weaker production data may renew downside pressure, particularly if US data remain firm.
EUR/USD daily structure shows consolidation following an upside extension earlier in the year. Short-term momentum has moderated, with price holding above longer-term support levels.
Japan GDP (Q4 2025, 2nd estimate): 10:50 am, 10 March (AEDT)
Bank of Japan policy meeting: 18–19 March (AEDT)
BOJ statement on monetary policy: 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic growth data and Bank of Japan policy decisions. Yield expectations and policy normalisation signals continue to influence USD/JPY and cross-JPY volatility.
The BOJ policy meeting and subsequent communication may influence short-term volatility and longer-term rate expectations, and by extension JPY sentiment.
Stronger GDP or policy signals reinforcing normalisation could support JPY via domestic yield adjustments. More cautious messaging may maintain yield differentials in favour of USD and AUD.
RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 March (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD faces a domestic calendar centred around the 16–17 March RBA meeting. Growth, labour and inflation releases cluster within a three-week window, increasing the potential for volatility.
Stronger GDP or persistent inflation could reinforce policy caution and support AUD. Softer labour or CPI outcomes may weigh on rate expectations and pressure AUD, particularly against USD and JPY.
Chinese data early in the month may also influence regional sentiment and commodity-linked currencies such as AUD.
The torch is lit in Milan, and public attention has moved from the opening-ceremony theatrics to the competition on the slopes.
But for forex (FX) traders, eyes are still on the euro (EUR) charts. With Italy at the centre of the sporting world, the eurozone economy is facing one of its most-watched moments of the year.
1. The home court advantage (Italy’s economy)
Some estimates suggest the Olympics could deliver roughly a €5.3 billion boost to the Italian economy, driven by direct spending and a longer tourism tail once the flame goes out. In practical terms, that can mean a front-loaded “direct expenditure” phase. Hospitality, retail and transport demand can peak as an estimated 2.5 million spectators move between Milan and the Dolomites.
Checklist task: Watch Italy industrial production (Wednesday, 11 February 2026). While the Games may support services activity, it’s worth tracking whether broader production data is keeping pace or if the Olympic impact is narrowly concentrated in tourism‑linked sectors.
At its 5 February meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) held policy settings steady at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. President Christine Lagarde signalled that while inflation appears to be stabilising, the ECB remains in “wait and see” mode.
Checklist task: Monitor speeches from ECB members this week. Any shift in tone, including a more hawkish tilt that suggests rates may stay higher for longer, could act as a potential tailwind for EUR/USD, especially if it contrasts with a more cautious Federal Reserve tone.
The most prestigious Olympic finals often land in the European evening. For traders, this lines up with the London to New York session overlap (typically 14:00 to 17:00 GMT). That’s when liquidity is deepest in EUR crosses and when positioning can whipsaw around data and headlines.
Checklist task: Expect possible peak liquidity and the potential for “false breakouts” during these hours. If a major US data point (such as Tuesday’s retail sales, or Friday’s CPI) lands while European markets are still open, EUR pairs may see a volatility pickup.
While the euro is the star of the show, the Olympics can still be shadowed by broader geopolitical noise. For example, gold is already trading around the US$5,000 mark after briefly breaking above it in early February, driven by central‑bank buying, expectations of a weaker dollar, and upgraded year‑end forecasts.
Checklist task: If sentiment turns risk-off, watch traditional haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and gold. Gold has seen large swings recently and is currently testing resistance near US$5,000. EUR/CHF may also see higher volatility if geopolitical headlines intensify during the Games.
The week wraps with the eurozone’s Q4 GDP (second estimate) on Friday, 13 February 2026.
Checklist task: The preliminary estimate showed 0.3% growth. If the figure is revised upward, it may reinforce the eurozone’s resilience and could support a late-week bid in EUR.
While the “Olympic boost” may offer a sentiment cushion for Italy, the euro’s direction is still likely to be shaped by whether the ECB’s “wait and see” stance is challenged by Friday’s GDP update or Wednesday’s industrial production release.
With gold hovering near US$5,000 and the US facing a calendar affected by rescheduled data, volatility could stay elevated into key overlap hours, right as prime-time events are taking place.
February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led.
Quick facts
USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning.
Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.
ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.
Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.
Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.
Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.
Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.
March’s foreign exchange (FX) markets could be shaped by several high-impact releases clustered around the first half of the month. China PMIs, Australia GDP, Japan GDP and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting could all influence FX sentiment as the month progresses.
Quick facts
US rate expectations remain stable, with CME FedWatch implying a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting.
China PMIs, CPI/PPI and trade data will help shape early-month regional risk tone.
Australia's GDP, RBA decision, labour force data and CPI create a concentrated domestic event window for AUD.
Japan GDP and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting may influence domestic yield repricing and JPY volatility.
Euro area CPI, industrial production and the ECB Monetary Policy Decision remain key for EUR stability.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm Payrolls: 12:30 am, 7 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 pm, 11 March (AEDT)
Retail Sales: 11:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve policy decision: 5:00 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve press conference: 5:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD remains primarily driven by inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve pricing.
CME FedWatch pricing indicates that markets are assigning a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests positioning is currently anchored around a pause, increasing sensitivity to any inflation surprise that could shift expectations.
With a pause largely priced in, USD direction may hinge more on inflation trajectory and longer-term policy expectations than the decision itself. Firmer CPI or resilient labour data could reinforce yield support.
Euro area CPI (flash estimate): 10:00 pm, 3 March (AEDT)
Euro area industrial production: 9:00 pm, 13 March (AEDT)
ECB Monetary Policy Decision: 12:15 am, 20 March (AEDT)
ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 20 March (AEDT)
Eurozone flash PMI: 8:00 pm, 24 March (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to inflation persistence and whether growth data stabilise expectations around ECB policy.
Sticky inflation or improved activity data could limit easing expectations and support the EUR. Softer inflation and weaker production data may renew downside pressure, particularly if US data remain firm.
EUR/USD daily structure shows consolidation following an upside extension earlier in the year. Short-term momentum has moderated, with price holding above longer-term support levels.
Japan GDP (Q4 2025, 2nd estimate): 10:50 am, 10 March (AEDT)
Bank of Japan policy meeting: 18–19 March (AEDT)
BOJ statement on monetary policy: 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic growth data and Bank of Japan policy decisions. Yield expectations and policy normalisation signals continue to influence USD/JPY and cross-JPY volatility.
The BOJ policy meeting and subsequent communication may influence short-term volatility and longer-term rate expectations, and by extension JPY sentiment.
Stronger GDP or policy signals reinforcing normalisation could support JPY via domestic yield adjustments. More cautious messaging may maintain yield differentials in favour of USD and AUD.
RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 March (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD faces a domestic calendar centred around the 16–17 March RBA meeting. Growth, labour and inflation releases cluster within a three-week window, increasing the potential for volatility.
Stronger GDP or persistent inflation could reinforce policy caution and support AUD. Softer labour or CPI outcomes may weigh on rate expectations and pressure AUD, particularly against USD and JPY.
Chinese data early in the month may also influence regional sentiment and commodity-linked currencies such as AUD.
The global initial public offering (IPO) market saw a resurgence in 2025. Proceeds increased 39% to US$171.8 billion across 1,293 listings, the sharpest annual rebound since the post-pandemic boom.
That momentum is now building into 2026 for what some financial analysts speculate could be the biggest IPO year in history.
A handful of mega-cap private companies, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are exploring going public this year, with combined valuations that could exceed US$3 trillion.
2025 IPO market data
Top IPO candidates in 2026
1. SpaceX - US$1.5T valuation
SpaceX revenue reportedly hit US$15 billion in 2025, with analysts projecting an increase to US$22-24 billion in 2026. The company has been cash-flow positive for years, driven largely by its Starlink satellite broadband network.
Following its February 2026 all-stock acquisition of Elon Musk's AI company xAI, the combined entity also encompasses Grok AI and the social media platform X (Twitter).
Leading financial analysts have reported SpaceX is targeting a mid-2026 listing. Its next funding round is estimated to raise around US$50 billion, putting its initial market cap at US$1.5 trillion, which would make it the second-highest IPO valuation of all time.
This valuation would mean SpaceX would trade at 62–68 times projected 2026 sales. A steep premium that requires massive growth assumptions around Starlink and longer-term space-based AI ambitions.
2. OpenAI - US$850B valuation
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, now reports more than 800 million weekly active users of its groundbreaking AI product.
Originally a nonprofit research lab, it has restructured into a for-profit entity developing large language models for consumer, enterprise, and developer applications.
OpenAI is reportedly targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, finalising a US$100 billion-plus funding round (its largest ever), which would put its valuation at US$850 billion.
However, OpenAI still needs to overcome some near-term hurdles to achieve the potential associated with such a high valuation.
It projects US$14 billion in losses in 2026 and does not expect profitability before 2029. It is facing intensified competition from Google Gemini and other AI startups cutting into its market share, and Elon Musk has filed a lawsuit against the company seeking up to US$134 billion in damages.
3. Anthropic - US$350B valuation
While OpenAI has leaned into consumer products, Anthropic has built its business around enterprise adoption. Roughly 80% of its revenue comes from business customers, and eight of the Fortune 10 are now Claude users.
Anthropic closed a US$30 billion funding round in February 2026 at a US$350 billion valuation, more than double its US$183 billion valuation from five months earlier.
Anthropic’s annualised revenue has been growing at 10x per year since 2024, well outpacing OpenAI’s growth of 3.4x per year. If this trend continues, Anthropic revenue could pass OpenAI by mid-2026. However, since July 2025, Anthropic’s growth rate has slowed down to 7x per year.
Anthropic projected growth if revenue trend continues | Epoch.ai
Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini to begin IPO preparations, and the recent appointment of former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell to its board signals a governance push ahead of a potential late-2026 listing.
The company is not yet profitable, but its enterprise-heavy revenue mix and rapid growth trajectory make it one of the most closely watched IPO candidates this year.
4. Stripe - US$140B valuation
Stripe processed US$1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, roughly 1.3% of global GDP. Half the Fortune 100 now use Stripe, and recent moves into stablecoins and AI-to-AI "agentic commerce" payments are expanding its addressable market.
Stripe remains one of the most anticipated fintech IPOs globally, but the company has shown a lack of urgency to list in the past. Co-founder John Collison said at Davos in January 2026 that Stripe was "still not in any rush."
Rather than pursuing an IPO, Stripe has conducted tender offers every six months at rising valuations, providing employee liquidity without surrendering control.
These frequent tenders effectively function as a private-market alternative to going public. However, a traditional IPO is still on the cards in 2026, with the company's February tender offer valuing it at US$140 billion or more, and profitability since 2024 removing one of the key barriers to listing.
5. Databricks - US$134B valuation
Databricks completed a US$5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a US$134 billion valuation.
The company's annualised revenue exceeded US$5.4 billion in January 2026, growing a massive 65% year-on-year, with AI products generating US$1.4 billion.
CEO Ali Ghodsi has said the company is prepared to go public "when the time is right," with most analysts expecting a H2 2026 listing. At US$134 billion, Databricks is valued at more than twice publicly traded rival Snowflake (~US$58 billion).
Bottom line
2026 has the potential to be the biggest IPO year by valuation in history. With the most likely candidates, SpaceX and Databricks, matching the total valuation of all 2025 IPOs on their own.
If major AI players like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as world-leading payment fintech Stripe, also list before the end of the year, 2026 could see over US$3 trillion in total value added to global markets through IPOs alone.
Markets move into the week ahead with inflation data across Australia and Japan, alongside elevated geopolitical tensions that continue to influence energy prices and broader risk sentiment.
Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation data may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy path, with the Australian dollar (AUD) and local yields sensitive to any surprise.
Japan data cluster: Tokyo CPI (preliminary) plus industrial production and retail sales provide an inflation-and-activity pulse that could shape Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalisation expectations.
Eurozone & Germany CPI: Flash inflation readings will test the disinflation narrative and influence ECB rate-cut timing expectations.
Oil and geopolitics: Brent crude has posted its highest close since 8 August 2025 amid renewed Middle East tensions, reinforcing energy-driven inflation risk.
Australia CPI: RBA expectations to change?
Australia’s upcoming CPI release will be closely watched for signals on whether inflation is stabilising or proving more persistent than expected.
A stronger-than-expected print could be associated with higher yields and a firmer AUD as rate expectations adjust. A softer outcome could support expectations for a steadier policy stance.
Key dates
Inflation Rate (MoM): 11:30 am Wednesday, 25 February (AEDT)
Japan’s late-week releases combine Tokyo CPI (preliminary) with industrial production and retail sales, offering a broader read on price pressures and domestic demand.
Tokyo CPI is often watched as a timely signal for national inflation dynamics and BoJ debate. Industrial output and retail spending add context on activity.
Surprises across this cluster can drive sharp moves in the JPY, particularly if results shift perceptions around the pace and persistence of BoJ normalisation.
Key dates
Tokyo CPI: 10:30 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Industrial Production: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Retail Sales: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Monitor
JPY sensitivity to inflation surprises
Bond yield moves in response to activity data
Equity reactions if growth momentum expectations shift
Energy and safe-haven flows
Oil prices have climbed to their highest close since 8 August 2025 amid renewed Middle East tensions.
Recent reporting on heightened regional military activity and shipping-risk headlines near the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced energy security as a market focus. The Strait of Hormuz remains a widely watched chokepoint for global energy flows.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation expectations and influence bond yields. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty can support the USD through safe-haven demand and relative rate positioning.
Flash inflation readings from Germany and the broader eurozone (HICP) will test whether the region’s disinflation trend remains intact.
Germany’s release can influence expectations ahead of the aggregated eurozone figure. If core inflation proves sticky, expectations around the timing and pace of potential European Central Bank easing could shift.
Key dates
Germany Inflation Rate: 12:00 am Saturday, 28 February (AEDT)
