Venezuela At number one, we have a country which has been in turmoil in the last few months – Venezuela. Economic and social crisis have hit the South American nation and things are not looking to get better any time soon. However, it does top the list as the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world at 300 billion barrels.
Worth pointing out that it was the 15 th largest crude oil exporter at $26,4 billion barrels making it up 2.3% of the world total. Capital: Caracas Official language: Spanish Population: 31,568,179 Gross Domestic Product: $92 billion Currency: Petro (PTR), Bolivar Soberano (VES) Saudi Arabia The next on the list is Saudi Arabia, which was actually the top crude oil exporter in the world last year with $182 billion worth of oil exports which was around 15,9% of the total crude oil exports in the world. The middle eastern country is highly reliant on its oil exports and its proven oil reserves amount to around 266 billion barrels.
Capital: Riyadh Official language: Arabic Population: 33,000,000 Gross Domestic Product: $759 billion Currency: Saudi Riyal (SAR) Canada At number three we have the North American nation of Canada with crude oil reserves of around 169 billion barrels with 95% of these reserves are in the oil sands deposits in the western province of Alberta. Canada was the 4th largest crude oil exporter last year with $68,9 billion worth of exports, making it up 5.8% of the total. Capital: Ottawa Official language: English and French Population: 37,067,011 Gross Domestic Product: $1,9 trillion Currency: Canadian Dollar (CAD) Iran The Islamic Republic of Iran is at number four with 158 billion worth of proven oil reserves.
Iran was the 8 th largest crude oil exporter in the world with $45,7 billion, which was around 4% of the world total. Capital: Tehran Official language: Persian Population: 81,672,300 Gross Domestic Product: $413 billion Currency: Iranian Rial (IRR) Iraq The last one on our list of countries with the largest crude oil exporters is Iraq with 142 billion barrels. Iraq was the 3 rd biggest crude oil exporter in 2018 with $91 billion worth of exports which made up 7.9% of the total.
Iraq was one of the founding member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela when it was established back in 1960. Iraq’s economy is highly depended on oil with oil production accounting for 2/3 of the country’s GDP. Capital: Baghdad Official language: Arabic and Kurdish Population: 37,202,671 Gross Domestic Product: $233 billion Currency: Iraqi dinar (IQD) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
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Venezuela commands the world's largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion barrels. Yet political turmoil, global sanctions, and recent US intervention show that being the biggest isn’t always best.
Quick facts:
Venezuela holds 18% of the world's total proven oil reserves despite producing less than 1% of global consumption.
Just four countries (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Canada) control over half the planet's proven reserves.
Saudi Arabia dominates crude oil production contributing to over 16% of global exports.
US shale technology has enabled America to lead in production despite ranking ninth in reserves.
Top 10 countries by proven oil reserves
1. Venezuela – 303 billion barrels
Controls 18% of global reserves, primarily extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt requiring specialised refining.
Heavy crude trades $15-20 below Brent benchmarks due to high sulphur content and complex processing requirements.
Output crashed 60% from 2.5 million bpd in 2014 to less than 1.0 million bpd last year.
Approximately 80% of exports flow to China as loan repayment, with export revenues dwarfed by reserve potential.
2. Saudi Arabia – 267 billion barrels
Majority light, sweet crude oil requires minimal refining and commands premium prices, contributing to world-leading exports of $191.1 billion in 2024.
Maintains 2-3 million bpd of spare production capacity, providing market stabilisation capability during supply disruptions.
Oil comprises roughly 50% of the country’s GDP and 70% of its export earnings.
Production decisions significantly impact international oil prices due to market dominance.
Heavy Western sanctions severely limit the country’s ability to monetise and access international markets.
Production estimates vary significantly (2.5-3.8 million bpd) due to sanctions, limited transparency, and restricted international reporting.
Significant crude volumes flow to China through discount arrangements and sanctions-evading mechanisms.
Sanctions relief could rapidly boost production toward 4-5 million bpd, though domestic consumption (12th globally) reduces export potential.
4. Canada – 163 billion barrels
Approximately 97% of reserves are oil sands (bitumen) requiring steam-assisted extraction and significant upfront capital investment.
Political stability and regulatory frameworks position Canada as a secure source compared to volatile producers, with direct pipeline access to US refineries.
Supplied over 60% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2024, making Canada America's top source by far.
5. Iraq – 145 billion barrels
Decades of war and sanctions have prevented optimal field development and infrastructure modernisation.
Improved security conditions since 2017 have enabled production recovery, but pipeline attacks and aging facilities continue to constrain output.
Oil revenue comprises over 90% of government income, creating extreme fiscal vulnerability.
Exports flow primarily to China, India, and Asian buyers seeking a reliable Middle Eastern supply, with most production from super-giant southern fields near Basra.
6. United Arab Emirates – 113 billion barrels
Produces primarily medium-to-light sweet crude commanding premium prices, ranking fourth globally in export value at $87.6 billion.
Has successfully diversified its economy through tourism, finance, and trade, reducing oil's GDP share compared to Gulf peers.
Strategic location near the Strait of Hormuz and openness to international oil companies help facilitate efficient global distribution.
7. Kuwait – 101.5 billion barrels
Reserves are concentrated in aging super-giant fields like Burgan, which require enhanced recovery techniques.
Favourable geology enables extraction costs around $8-10 per barrel, with proven reserves providing 80+ years of supply at current production rates.
Oil comprises 60% of GDP and over 95% of export revenue.
8. Russia – 80 billion barrels
World's third-largest producer despite ranking eighth in reserves.
Post-2022 Western sanctions redirected crude flows from Europe to Asia, with China and India now absorbing the majority at discounted prices.
Despite export restrictions and G7 price cap at $60/barrel, it posted the second-highest global export value at $169.7 billion in 2024.
Russian Urals crude typically trades $15-30 below Brent due to quality, sanctions, and logistics, with November 2024 revenues declining to $11 billion.
9. United States – 74.4 billion barrels
The shale revolution through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has made the U.S. the world's #1 oil producer despite holding only the 9th-largest reserves.
The Permian Basin accounts for nearly 50% of production, with shale/tight oil representing 65% of total output.
Achieved net petroleum exporter status in 2020 for the first time since 1949, with crude exports growing from near-zero in 2015 to over 4 million bpd in 2024.
The U.S. government maintains a 375+ million barrel strategic reserve.
10. Libya – 48.4 billion barrels
Holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves at 48.4 billion barrels, producing light sweet crude commanding premium prices.
Rival bordering governments compete for oil revenue control, causing production to fluctuate based on political conditions.
Oil facilities face blockades, militia attacks, and political leverage tactics, preventing consistent returns.
Favourable geology enables extraction costs around $10-15 per barrel, with geographic proximity making Libya a natural supplier to European refineries.
What does this mean for oil markets?
The concentration of reserves among OPEC members (60% of the global total) ensures the organisation has continued influence over pricing, even as US shale provides a production counterweight.
Venezuela's potential return as a major exporter post-U.S. occupation could eventually ease supply constraints, though most analysts view significant production increases as years away.
Sanctions could create a situation where discounted crude seeks buyers willing to navigate compliance risks. Refiners with heavy crude processing capability may benefit from price differentials if Venezuelan barrels increase.
While reserves appear abundant, economically recoverable volumes depend on sustained high prices. If renewable adoption accelerates and demand peaks sooner than projected, stranded assets become a material risk for reserve-heavy producers.
Asia starts the week with a fresh geopolitical shock that is already being framed in oil terms, not just security terms. The first-order move may be a repricing of risk premia and volatility across energy and macro, while markets wait to see whether this becomes a durable physical disruption or a fast-fading headline premium.
At a glance
What happened: US officials said the US carried out “Operation Absolute Resolve”, including strikes around Caracas, and that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were taken into US custody and flown to the United States (subject to ongoing verification against the cited reporting).
What markets may focus on now: Headline-driven risk premia and volatility, especially in products and heavy-crude-sensitive spreads, rather than a clean “missing barrels” shock.
What is not happening yet: Early pricing has so far looked more like a headline risk premium than a confirmed physical supply shock, though this can change quickly, with analysts pointing to ample global supply as a possible cap on sustained upside.
Next 24 to 72 hours: Market participants are likely to focus on the shape of the oil “quarantine”, the UN track, and whether this stays “one and done” or becomes open-ended.
Australia and Asia hook: AUD as a risk barometer, Asia refinery margins in diesel and heavy, and shipping and insurance where the price can show up in friction before it shows up in benchmarks.
What happened, facts fast
Before anyone had time to workshop the talking points, there were strikes, there was a raid, and there was a custody transfer. US officials say the operation culminated in Maduro and his wife being flown to the United States, where court proceedings are expected.
Then came the line that turned a foreign policy story into a markets story. President Trump publicly suggested the US would “run” Venezuela for now, explicitly tying the mission to oil.
Almost immediately after that came a message-discipline correction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would not govern Venezuela day to day, but would press for changes through an oil “quarantine” or blockade.
That tension, between maximalist presidential rhetoric and a more bureaucratically describable “quarantine”, is where the uncertainty lives. Uncertainty is what gets priced first.
Source: Adobe images
Why this is price relevant now
What’s new versus known for positioning
What’s new, and price relevant, is that the scale and outcome are not incremental. A major military operation, a claimed removal of Venezuela’s leadership from the country, and a US-led custody transfer are not the sort of things markets can safely treat as noise.
Second, the oil framing is explicit. Even if you assume the language gets sanded down later, the stated lever is petroleum. Flows, enforcement, and pressure via exports.
Third, the embargo is not just a talking point anymore. Reporting says PDVSA has begun asking some joint ventures to cut output because exports have been halted and storage is tightening, with heavy-crude and diluent constraints featuring prominently.
What’s still unknown, and where volatility comes from
Key unknowns include how strict enforcement is on water, what exemptions look like in practice, how stable the on-the-ground situation is, and which countries recognise what comes next. Those are not philosophical questions. Those are the inputs for whether this is a temporary risk premium or a durable regime shift.
Political and legal reaction, why this drives tail risk
The fastest way to understand the tail here is to watch who calls this illegal, and who calls it effective, then ask what those camps can actually do.
Internationally, reaction has been fast, with emphasis on international law and the UN Charter from key partners, and UN processes in view. In the US, lawmakers and commentators have begun debating the legal basis, including questions of authority and war powers. That matters for markets because it helps define whether this is a finite operation with an aftershock, or the opening chapter of a rolling policy regime that keeps generating headlines.
Market mechanism, the core “so what”
Here’s the key thing about oil shocks. Sometimes the headline is the shock. Sometimes the plumbing is the shock.
Venezuela’s heavy-crude system: Orinoco production, key pipelines, and export/refining bottlenecks.
Volumes and cushion
Venezuela is not the world’s swing producer. Its production is meaningful at the margin, but not enough by itself to imply “the world runs out of oil tomorrow”. The risk is not just volume. It is duration, disruption, and friction.
The market’s mental brake is spare capacity and the broader supply backdrop. Reporting over the weekend pointed to ample global supply as a likely cap on sustained gains, even as prices respond to risk.
Quality and transmission
Venezuela’s barrels are disproportionately extra heavy, and extra heavy crude is not just “oil”. It is oil that often needs diluent or condensate to move and process. That is exactly the kind of constraint that shows up as grade-specific tightness and product effects.
Reporting has highlighted diluent constraints and storage pressure as exports stall. Translation: even if Brent stays relatively civil, watch cracks, diesel and distillates, and any signals that “heavy substitution” is getting expensive.
Heavy-light spread as a stress gauge: rising differentials can signal costly substitution and tighter heavy supply.
Products transmission, volatility first, pump later
If crude is the headline, products are the receipt, because products tell you what refiners can actually do with the crude they can actually get. The short-run pattern is usually: futures reprice risk fast, implied volatility pops; physical flows adapt more slowly; retail follows with a lag, and often with less drama than the first weekend of commentary promised.
For Australia and Asia desks, the bigger point is transmission. Energy moves can influence inflation expectations, which can feed into rates pricing and the dollar, and in turn affect Asia FX and broader risk, though the links are not mechanical and can vary by regime.
Some market participants also monitor refined-product benchmarks, including gasoline contracts such as reformulated gasoline blendstock, as part of that chain rather than as a stand-alone signal.
Historical context, the two patterns that matter
Two patterns matter more than any single episode.
Pattern A: scare premium. Big headline, limited lasting outage. A spike, then a fade as the market decides the plumbing still works.
Pattern B: structural. Real barrels are lost or restrictions lock in; the forward curve reprices; the premium migrates from front-month drama to whole-curve reality.
One commonly observed pattern is that when it is only premium, volatility tends to spike more than price. When it is structural, levels and time spreads move more durably.
The three possible market reactions
Contained, rhetorical: quarantine exists but porous; diplomacy churns; no second-wave actions. Premium bleeds out; volatility mean-reverts.
Escalation, prolonged control risk: “not governing” language loses credibility; repeated operations; allies fracture further. Longer-duration premium; broader risk-off impulse across FX and rates.
Australia and Asia angle
For Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong screens, this is less about Venezuelan retail politics and more about how a Western Hemisphere intervention bleeds into Asia pricing.
AUD is the quick and dirty risk proxy. Asia refiners care about the kind of oil and the friction cost. Heavy crude plus diluent dependency makes substitution non-trivial. If enforcement looks aggressive, the “price” can show up in freight, insurance, and spreads before it shows up in headline Brent.
Catalyst calendar, key developments markets may monitor
US policy detail: quarantine rules, enforcement posture, exemptions.
UN and allies: statements that signal whether this becomes a long legitimacy fight.
Why Is Gold in Focus Right Now?Throughout early 2025, gold has surged to record highs, breaching $3,400 an ounce for the first time in history. For newer traders, this may seem like a “blue-sky” breakout without precedent. For experienced market participants, it raises a more practical and important question, i.e. what is driving this rally, and is it sustainable?Understanding the fundamental and technical context behind such moves helps us not only trade the present but plan for what may come next, which can guide us in the decisions we make with our trading action.This article aims to build upon recent outlook webinars that we have delivered recently, which have waved the bullish flag throughout. However, I must admit to having been surprised at the velocity of the rally.We will try to unpick key drivers as well as analyse what could be next and why.What’s Driving the Gold Rally in 2025?Let’s take a look at the main contributing factors that are currently supporting the upward momentum in gold prices:1. Rising Global Uncertainty and Geopolitical RiskPolitical instability, as it has historically, remains a strong macro backdrop for gold. Recent flare-ups in geopolitical conflict — particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East — have returned “safe haven” flows back into focus. This is typical during periods when traditional risk assets like equities face greater downside volatility.Additionally, the somewhat turbulent start (even more so than many predicted) to the new U.S. administration has introduced an element of policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, inflation and the impact of economic growth. The possibility of further tariffs or fiscal tightening reinforces gold’s appeal as a form of protection.Key Point: Traders need to monitor not just existing conflicts, but also the market perception of risk. Gold often responds not to what is happening, but to what investors fear might happen.2. US V China – trade war brewing?Tariff dramas have been the major market chatter and sentiment changer over the last few weeks. On top of general broad international tariffs, and to pause or not to pause decisions, the major attention is, and likely to continue to be, the escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China has pushed inflation expectations higher. While inflation has generally cooled since its 2022–2023 peaks, cost-push factors such as tariffs can reintroduce price pressures, particularly on imports.Central banks globally are including tariffs within a rate decision narrative, but no central bank is more in focus, of course, than the Federal Reserve. In Trump's last presidency, the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell came under fire for rate policy, and already, it was noteworthy that the current president aimed a shot at him once again. The market is aware that inflationary shocks are not off the table once tariff impact starts to bite at importer costs in the US, and the “priced in” rate cut that is likely to occur in June is still some time away, and the certainty that this may happen may start to waver. Gold has historically performed well when real yields (interest rates adjusted for inflation) fall or remain negative.Key Point: Watch CPI data closely. If inflation expectations start to climb again due to trade-related costs, gold may continue to benefit.3. U.S. Dollar WeaknessThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) has declined to multi-year lows, making gold more attractive to non-U.S. investors. This is a classic inverse relationship — as the dollar falls, gold often rises.A weaker dollar could potentially indicating that the market could be pricing in a more dovish Federal Reserve, with rate cuts potentially on the table later in the year, However, more likely in this case, the dramatic drop in the USD, which this week hit 3 year lows, is more likely due to concerns about growth and even the perceived chance of recession.At the time of writing, the earnings season is ramping up, and despite Q1 results so far being relatively positive, we are already seeing concerns expressed (as is often the case with uncertainty) relating to forward guidance. This, of course, plays into the slowdown narrative. This week's PMI data feels as though it may have even more importance than usual.Key Point: Gold traders should always include USD direction in their macro framework. It often amplifies or suppresses broader trends in the metal.4. Central Bank and Institutional DemandAnother major support for gold is the persistent demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets such as China and Turkey. These institutions are increasingly shifting reserves into gold as part of long-term diversification away from USD assets.Evidence suggests ETF flows have also picked up, showing increasing but not outrageous levels, suggesting the move is still institutional in nature rather than purely speculative.Key Point: As long as institutional and central bank demand remains steady or rising, gold has a structural reason to be supported underneath current price levels.What the Technical Picture Is Telling UsWhile fundamental drivers continue to support gold, the technical setup also tells an important story — one that can help traders decide whether to stay in, take partial profits, or prepare for tactical re-entries after any price pullback. Let’s explore the technical picture in a bit more detail.
Gold’s Long-Term Trend Structure Remains Intact
Gold has been making a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows since mid-2023. This trend has been confirmed across multiple timeframes, including the daily and weekly charts — an important feature for position traders.Currently, price is well above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which have now turned upward and widened — a classic sign of trend strength and directional bias. When prices pull back in strong trends, these EMAs often serve as dynamic support levels.
Momentum: The weekly RSI is elevated (above 75), which suggests gold may be in overbought territory in the short term.
What About RSI Being Overbought?One of the most common misunderstandings among newer traders is how to interpret an elevated RSI (Relative Strength Index), particularly when it crosses above the traditional 70 level.RSI above 70 does not automatically mean 'sell' — especially in strong trends, so this merits a little further discussion.Here’s why a high RSI may not be a problem:
Context matters: In trending markets, RSI can remain elevated (above 70 or even 80) for extended periods without any meaningful pullback. This is often referred to as a 'momentum breakout' condition.
Confirmation from volume: If rising RSI is accompanied by increased volume, it suggests that momentum is being supported by participation, not exhaustion. Currently, weekly volume has expanded on breakout weeks, supporting the move.
New highs with RSI > 70 are actually bullish: A strong market making new highs and registering overbought readings usually reflects strength, not vulnerability — unless divergence begins to appear.
Key Point: Use RSI as a momentum gauge, not a reversal trigger in isolation. In this case, RSI supports the idea that gold is strong, not yet stretched to the point of reversal.
Next Targets: Many technical analysts are watching $3,500 and $3,650 as key psychological and Fibonacci extension levels. A sustained break above $3,400 would likely bring these into view.
Support Levels: If price retraces, $3,200 and $3,050 are likely areas where buyers may step back in, especially if the macro story remains intact.Key Point: Momentum remains strong, but even in trending markets, corrections are normal. Having a plan for where to re-engage is just as important as knowing when to stay out.
What Would a Healthy Pullback Look Like?
Even the strongest trends pause. If gold does retrace in the short term, the nature of the pullback is more important than whether it happens.Signs of a healthy pullback include:- Controlled decline in decreasing volume- Price respecting prior breakout zones — e.g., $3,250–$3,280- Holding dynamic support like the 20-day or 50-day EMA- Reversal candle patterns near support (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing)Key Point: In strong markets, pullbacks are often shallow and short-lived. They can be opportunities to scale in, provided the structure remains intact.Sentiment and Positioning: Are Traders Too Bullish?It’s important not to get swept up in price action alone. The COT (Commitments of Traders) report can provide valuable insight into whether markets are approaching overly crowded levels.
Large Speculators have increased their net long positions, but not yet at levels seen in major historical peaks.
Retail traders have only recently started to increase exposure, which suggests the move is not fully mature.
ETF inflows, while rising, are still below the aggressive flows seen in 2020.Key Point: Current positioning suggests there may still be room to run, especially if new catalysts emerge. However, if positioning becomes too lopsided, be ready for faster and sharper corrections.
What Could Change the Narrative….Risks to Watch?Even with a strong bull case, traders must stay aware of what could derail gold’s momentum:Risk Event #1: Sudden USD reboundImpact on Gold: Could trigger a sharp pullbackRisk Event #2: Hawkish Fed surpriseImpact on Gold: Logically higher real yields = bearish gold due to USD impact – however, gold’s role as an inflation risk is likely to offset this.Risk Event #3: De-escalation of trade/geopolitical tensionsImpact on Gold: Safe-haven demand may soften if this is part of the reason for the current price rise. However, with other factors predominating price moves for right now, again, this may not be critical.Risk Event #4: Profit-taking and reversal in momentumImpact on Gold: Could create a short-term topKey Point: Risk doesn’t always mean reversal — but it does mean adjusting trade size, stops, and expectations when conditions change.Summary: Stay Informed, Stay DisciplinedGold’s rise in 2025 has been impressive, but it hasn’t been irrational. The macro backdrop, institutional support, and technical structure all support the trend.However, markets rarely move in straight lines, and traders should stay ready for both continuation and correction scenarios.Success is likely to lie in applying consistency in the management of profit and capital risks, as well as having a clear method to re-enter as appropriate. consistently while remaining adaptable to changing conditions.Traders should view the current gold move as a reflection of persistent macro themes and technical support rather than any sort of “bubble”. Whether you’re already long or waiting for a retracement, your decision-making should be rooted in having a clear and unambiguous trading plan and, of course, the discipline of follow-through in the actions you take.
The global initial public offering (IPO) market saw a resurgence in 2025. Proceeds increased 39% to US$171.8 billion across 1,293 listings, the sharpest annual rebound since the post-pandemic boom.
That momentum is now building into 2026 for what some financial analysts speculate could be the biggest IPO year in history.
A handful of mega-cap private companies, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are exploring going public this year, with combined valuations that could exceed US$3 trillion.
2025 IPO market data
Top IPO candidates in 2026
1. SpaceX - US$1.5T valuation
SpaceX revenue reportedly hit US$15 billion in 2025, with analysts projecting an increase to US$22-24 billion in 2026. The company has been cash-flow positive for years, driven largely by its Starlink satellite broadband network.
Following its February 2026 all-stock acquisition of Elon Musk's AI company xAI, the combined entity also encompasses Grok AI and the social media platform X (Twitter).
Leading financial analysts have reported SpaceX is targeting a mid-2026 listing. Its next funding round is estimated to raise around US$50 billion, putting its initial market cap at US$1.5 trillion, which would make it the second-highest IPO valuation of all time.
This valuation would mean SpaceX would trade at 62–68 times projected 2026 sales. A steep premium that requires massive growth assumptions around Starlink and longer-term space-based AI ambitions.
2. OpenAI - US$850B valuation
OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, now reports more than 800 million weekly active users of its groundbreaking AI product.
Originally a nonprofit research lab, it has restructured into a for-profit entity developing large language models for consumer, enterprise, and developer applications.
OpenAI is reportedly targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, finalising a US$100 billion-plus funding round (its largest ever), which would put its valuation at US$850 billion.
However, OpenAI still needs to overcome some near-term hurdles to achieve the potential associated with such a high valuation.
It projects US$14 billion in losses in 2026 and does not expect profitability before 2029. It is facing intensified competition from Google Gemini and other AI startups cutting into its market share, and Elon Musk has filed a lawsuit against the company seeking up to US$134 billion in damages.
3. Anthropic - US$350B valuation
While OpenAI has leaned into consumer products, Anthropic has built its business around enterprise adoption. Roughly 80% of its revenue comes from business customers, and eight of the Fortune 10 are now Claude users.
Anthropic closed a US$30 billion funding round in February 2026 at a US$350 billion valuation, more than double its US$183 billion valuation from five months earlier.
Anthropic’s annualised revenue has been growing at 10x per year since 2024, well outpacing OpenAI’s growth of 3.4x per year. If this trend continues, Anthropic revenue could pass OpenAI by mid-2026. However, since July 2025, Anthropic’s growth rate has slowed down to 7x per year.
Anthropic projected growth if revenue trend continues | Epoch.ai
Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini to begin IPO preparations, and the recent appointment of former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell to its board signals a governance push ahead of a potential late-2026 listing.
The company is not yet profitable, but its enterprise-heavy revenue mix and rapid growth trajectory make it one of the most closely watched IPO candidates this year.
4. Stripe - US$140B valuation
Stripe processed US$1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, roughly 1.3% of global GDP. Half the Fortune 100 now use Stripe, and recent moves into stablecoins and AI-to-AI "agentic commerce" payments are expanding its addressable market.
Stripe remains one of the most anticipated fintech IPOs globally, but the company has shown a lack of urgency to list in the past. Co-founder John Collison said at Davos in January 2026 that Stripe was "still not in any rush."
Rather than pursuing an IPO, Stripe has conducted tender offers every six months at rising valuations, providing employee liquidity without surrendering control.
These frequent tenders effectively function as a private-market alternative to going public. However, a traditional IPO is still on the cards in 2026, with the company's February tender offer valuing it at US$140 billion or more, and profitability since 2024 removing one of the key barriers to listing.
5. Databricks - US$134B valuation
Databricks completed a US$5 billion funding round in February 2026 at a US$134 billion valuation.
The company's annualised revenue exceeded US$5.4 billion in January 2026, growing a massive 65% year-on-year, with AI products generating US$1.4 billion.
CEO Ali Ghodsi has said the company is prepared to go public "when the time is right," with most analysts expecting a H2 2026 listing. At US$134 billion, Databricks is valued at more than twice publicly traded rival Snowflake (~US$58 billion).
Bottom line
2026 has the potential to be the biggest IPO year by valuation in history. With the most likely candidates, SpaceX and Databricks, matching the total valuation of all 2025 IPOs on their own.
If major AI players like OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as world-leading payment fintech Stripe, also list before the end of the year, 2026 could see over US$3 trillion in total value added to global markets through IPOs alone.
Markets move into the week ahead with inflation data across Australia and Japan, alongside elevated geopolitical tensions that continue to influence energy prices and broader risk sentiment.
Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation data may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy path, with the Australian dollar (AUD) and local yields sensitive to any surprise.
Japan data cluster: Tokyo CPI (preliminary) plus industrial production and retail sales provide an inflation-and-activity pulse that could shape Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalisation expectations.
Eurozone & Germany CPI: Flash inflation readings will test the disinflation narrative and influence ECB rate-cut timing expectations.
Oil and geopolitics: Brent crude has posted its highest close since 8 August 2025 amid renewed Middle East tensions, reinforcing energy-driven inflation risk.
Australia CPI: RBA expectations to change?
Australia’s upcoming CPI release will be closely watched for signals on whether inflation is stabilising or proving more persistent than expected.
A stronger-than-expected print could be associated with higher yields and a firmer AUD as rate expectations adjust. A softer outcome could support expectations for a steadier policy stance.
Key dates
Inflation Rate (MoM): 11:30 am Wednesday, 25 February (AEDT)
Japan’s late-week releases combine Tokyo CPI (preliminary) with industrial production and retail sales, offering a broader read on price pressures and domestic demand.
Tokyo CPI is often watched as a timely signal for national inflation dynamics and BoJ debate. Industrial output and retail spending add context on activity.
Surprises across this cluster can drive sharp moves in the JPY, particularly if results shift perceptions around the pace and persistence of BoJ normalisation.
Key dates
Tokyo CPI: 10:30 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Industrial Production: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Retail Sales: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT)
Monitor
JPY sensitivity to inflation surprises
Bond yield moves in response to activity data
Equity reactions if growth momentum expectations shift
Energy and safe-haven flows
Oil prices have climbed to their highest close since 8 August 2025 amid renewed Middle East tensions.
Recent reporting on heightened regional military activity and shipping-risk headlines near the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced energy security as a market focus. The Strait of Hormuz remains a widely watched chokepoint for global energy flows.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation expectations and influence bond yields. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty can support the USD through safe-haven demand and relative rate positioning.
Flash inflation readings from Germany and the broader eurozone (HICP) will test whether the region’s disinflation trend remains intact.
Germany’s release can influence expectations ahead of the aggregated eurozone figure. If core inflation proves sticky, expectations around the timing and pace of potential European Central Bank easing could shift.
Key dates
Germany Inflation Rate: 12:00 am Saturday, 28 February (AEDT)
From tech disruptors to defence contractors, some of the market's most talked-about companies start their public journey through an initial public offering (IPO). For traders, these initial public listings can represent a unique trading environment, but also a period of heightened uncertainty.
Quick facts
An IPO is when a private company lists its shares on a public stock exchange for the first time.
IPOs can offer traders early access to high-growth companies, but come with elevated volatility and limited price history.
Once listed, traders can gain exposure to IPO stocks through direct share purchases or derivatives such as contracts for difference (CFDs).
What is an initial public offering (IPO)?
An IPO is when a company offers its shares to the public for the first time.
Before performing an IPO, shares in the company are typically only held by founders, early employees, and private investors. Going public makes the shares available to be purchased by anyone.
Depending on the size of the company, it will usually list its public shares on the local stock exchange (for example, the ASX in Australia). However, some large-valuation companies choose to only list on a global stock exchange, like the Nasdaq, no matter where their main headquarters is located.
For traders, IPOs are generally the first opportunity to gain exposure to a company’s stock. They can create a unique environment with increased volatility and liquidity, but also carry heightened risk, given the limited price history and sensitivity to sentiment swings.
Why do companies go public?
The biggest driver to perform an IPO is to access more capital. Listing on a public exchange means the company can raise significant funds by selling shares.
It also provides liquidity for existing shareholders. Founders, early employees, and private investors often sell a portion of their existing holdings on the open market, realising the returns on their years of support.
Beyond the monetary benefits, going public means companies can use their stock as currency for acquisitions and offer equity-based compensation to attract talent. And a public valuation provides a transparent benchmark, which is useful for strategic positioning and future fundraising.
However, it does come with trade-offs. Public companies must comply with ongoing disclosure and reporting obligations, and pressure from public shareholders can become a barrier to long-term progress if many are focused on short-term performance.
While the specifics vary by jurisdiction, going from a private company to a public listing generally involves the following stages:
1. Preparation
The company first selects the underwriter (typically an investment bank) to manage the offering. Together, they assess the company's financials, corporate structure, and market positioning to determine the best approach for going public. It is the heavy planning stage to make sure the company is actually ready to go public.
2. Registration
Once everything is prepared, the underwriters conduct a thorough due diligence check and then lodge the required disclosure documents with the relevant regulator. These documents give a detailed disclosure to the regulator about the company, its management, and its proposed offering. In Australia, this is typically a prospectus lodged with ASIC; in the US, a registration statement filed with the SEC.
3. Roadshow
Executives at the company and underwriters will then present the investment case to institutional investors and market analysts in a “roadshow”. This showcase is designed to gauge demand for the stock and help generate interest. Institutional investors can register their interest and valuation of the IPO, which helps inform the initial pricing.
4. Pricing
Based on feedback from the roadshow and current market conditions, the underwriters set the final share price and determine the number of shares to be issued. Shares are allocated on the ‘primary market’ to investors participating in the offer (before the stock is listed publicly on the secondary market). This process sets the pre-market price, which effectively determines the company’s initial public valuation.
5. Listing
On listing day, the company’s shares begin trading on the chosen stock exchange, officially opening the secondary market. For most traders, this is the first point at which they can trade the stock, either directly or through derivatives such as Share CFDs.
6. Post-IPO
Once listed, the company becomes subject to strict reporting and disclosure requirements. It must communicate regularly with shareholders, publish its financial results, and comply with the governance standards of the exchange on which it is listed.
IPO risks and benefits for traders
How do traders participate in IPOs?
For most traders, participating in an IPO comes once shares have listed and begun trading on the secondary market.
Once shares are live on the exchange, investors can buy the physical shares directly through a broker or online exchange, or they can use derivatives such as Share CFDs to take a position on the price without owning the underlying asset.
The first few days of IPO trading tend to be highly volatile. Traders should ensure they have taken appropriate risk management measures to help safeguard against potential sharp price swings.
The bottom line
IPOs mark when a company becomes investable to the public. They can offer early access to high-growth companies and create a unique trading environment driven by elevated volatility and market interest.
For traders, understanding how the process works, what drives pricing and post-IPO performance, and how to weigh potential rewards against the risks of trading newly listed shares is essential before taking a position.
