Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
US machine manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced the latest financial results before the opening bell on Thursday. Deere achieved revenue of $10.486 billion for the three months ending 28/1/24, beating analyst estimate of $10.303 billion. Revenue was down by 8% vs. the same period year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.23 vs. $5.264 per share estimate. EPS decreased year-over-year by 4.88%. Net income for the quarter reached $1.75 billion.
The company cut net income forecast for fiscal year 2024 from $7.75-$8.25 billion to $7.50-$7.75 billion. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C. May (Chairman, CEO & President) CEO commentary "Deere's first-quarter performance underscores the effectiveness of our Smart Industrial operating model and the dedication of our workforce, enabling improved performance across economic cycles that surpasses historical benchmarks," John C.
May, CEO of the company commented on the latest results. "Moreover, we remain committed to empowering our customers to improve their productivity and sustainability through ongoing investment in the next generation of solutions, as evidenced by our partnership on satellite communications to expand rural connectivity announced this quarter," May concluded his statement to stockholders. Stock reaction The stock fell by over 5% on Thursday. Shares were trading at around $363.36 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.49% 1 month: -4.39% 3 months: -3.68% Year-to-date: -8.81% 1 year: -9.51% Deere & Company stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $430 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $385 Canaccord Genuity Group: $375 TD Cowen: $396 Bank of America: $422.50 HSBC: $486 USB Group: $408 Credit Suisse Group: $551 Stifel Nicolaus: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 Deutsche Bank: $407 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital Markets: $425 Wells Fargo & Company: $490 Deere & Company is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $101.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) released the latest earnings results for fiscal Q2 of 2024 after market close in the US on Wednesday. The US telecommunications company achieved revenue of $12.8 billion for the quarter vs. $12.706 billion. Revenue was down by 6% vs. the same period the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.87, above Wall Street estimate of $0.836 per share. EPS was down by 1% year-over-year. Cisco announced a 3% raise on its quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share for all shareholders on record as of 4/4/24.
For fiscal Q3 of 2024, the company expects revenue in a region of $12.1 to $12.3 billion. EPS expected at between $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Company overview Founded: 1984 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 84,900 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications Key people: Chuck Robbins (CEO & Chairman) CEO commentary "We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities.
Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations," Robbins concluded. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.29% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $50.28 a share. The stock fell by around 4% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.32% 1 month: -0.74% 3 months: -6.29% Year-to-date: -1.17% 1 year: +3.05% Cisco stock price targets UBS Group: $55 Melius Research: $55 DZ Bank: $50 Rosenblatt Securities: $51 Piper Sandler: $50 Oppenheimer: $54 Tigress Financial: $76 Bank of America: $60 Deutsche Bank: $58 Barclays: $53 Citigroup: $55 Morgan Stanley: $56 Jefferies Financial Group: $59.50 Evercore ISI: $63 BNP Paribas: $45 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Cisco Systems Inc. is the 54 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $203 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) reported the latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Coca-Cola reported revenue of $10.948 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) for the last three months of 2023 vs. $10.675 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $0.49 (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $0.489 per share estimate.
The company achieved revenue of $45.8 billion in 2023, up by 6% from 2022. EPS reached at $2.69 per share, up by 8%. Coca-Cola paid a total of $8 billion in dividends in 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 82,500 (2022) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) CEO commentary "During the year, our people and partners rose to meet new challenges, allowing us to excel globally and deliver in a dynamic world," CEO of the beverage company, James Quincey said in a statement to shareholders. "As we begin a new year, we’re confident that our all-weather strategy, powerful portfolio and harmonized system will continue to create value for our stakeholders in 2024 and for the long term," Quincey looked ahead. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.87% on Tuesday at $59.18 a share – the lowest since 25/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: -1.55% 1 month: -1.63% 3 months: +3.35% Year-to-date: +0.14% 1 year: -0.97% Coca-Cola stock price targets Citigroup: $68 Barclays: $66 Jefferies Financial Group: $64 Morgan Stanley: $65 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Bank of America: $60 Royal Bank of Canada: $70 Wedbush: $71 HSBC: $74 Evercore ISI: $70 Deutsche Bank: $63 Wells Fargo & Company: $68 Credit Suisse Group: $70 UBS Group: $70 The Goldman Sachs Group: $62 The Coca-Cola Company is the 39 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $254.80 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the US market opened on Wednesday. The world's second-largest gold miner achieved revenue of $3.126 billion for Q4 2023, up from $2.943 billion in Q3 2023 vs. $3.128 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.276, exceeding analyst estimate of $0.205.
The company announced a $0.10 per share dividend for all shareholders as of 29/2/24. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Number of employees: 18,421 Industry: Metals and mining Key people: John L. Thornton (Executive Chairman), Mark Bristow (President and Chief Executive Officer) CEO commentary CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, had this to say in a letter to shareholders: ''In true Barrick fashion, we kept our focus, dealt with the challenges, progressed our long-term strategic plans and delivered on some of our key objectives.
Most significantly, we have sustained our industry-leading organic growth outlook and are still projecting a 30% increase in gold equivalent3 production by the end of this decade.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.42% during the day on Wednesday after the latest results were announced, trading at $14.09 a share – lowest since 3/11/22. Stock performance 5 day: -5.73% 1 month: -9.54% 3 months: -9.83% Year-to-date: -22.19% 1 year: -18.03% Barrick Gold stock price targets Raymond James: $24 CIBC: $23 BMP Capital Markets: $27 Citigroup: $18 TD Securities: $22 Scotiabank: $25 UBS Group: $23 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 CSFB: $20 Barclays: $28 The Goldman Sachs Group: $22 Fundamental Research: $19.02 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 743 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $24.77 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest financial services company in the world, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), released the latest earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the market closed in Wall Street on Thursday. The US company reported revenue of $8.634 billion (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. $8.554 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.41 (up by 11% year-over-year) vs. $2.339 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1958 Headquarters: One Market Plaza, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 26,500 (2022) Industry: Payment cards services Key people: Ryan McInerney (CEO), Alfred F. Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman), Oliver Jenkyn (Group President & Global Markets), Kelly Mahon Tullier (Vice Chair & CPO), Chris Suh (CFO) CEO commentary "Our 2024 fiscal year is off to a solid start. In our first quarter, net revenues grew 9% and GAAP EPS grew 20%, driven by relatively stable growth in overall payments volume and processed transactions, plus strong growth in cross-border volume.
Consumer spending remained resilient. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant opportunities across consumer payments, new flows and value added services," CEO of Visa, Ryan McInerney, said in a press release to investors. Stock reaction Shares of Visa ended Thursday up by 0.35% at $272.61 a share.
The stock dipped in the after-hours by around 3% after the latest financial results were released. Stock performance 5 day: +1.67% 1 month: +4.69% 3 months: +17.87% Year-to-date: +4.71% 1 year: +21.32% Visa stock price targets Citigroup: $306 Mizuho: $265 KeyCorp: $300 UBS Group: $305 Jefferies Financial Group: $295 BMO Capital Markets: $280 Barclays: $278 Raymond James: $287 Wedbush: $270 Oppenheimer: $252 HSBC: $266 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $293 Wells Fargo & Company: $270 Credit Suisse Group: $275 Visa Inc. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $560.26 billion. You can trade Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Visa Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced the latest financial results on Wednesday. The US ride-hailing company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the last 3 months of 2023. Revenue reached $9.936 billion for the quarter (up from $8.607 billion in Q4 2022) vs. $9.756 billion expected.
EPS was reported at $0.66 per share (up by 127.58% year-over-year) vs. $0.163 per share estimate. Full year revenue grew by 24% from 2022 to $137.865 billion. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) CEO commentary "2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale.
Our audiences are larger and more engaged than ever, with our platform powering an average of nearly 26 million daily trips last year," Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares initially dropped by around 3% at the open on Wednesday. Shares flat towards the end of the trading day, up by 0.20% at $70.61 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +8.14% 1 month: +13.10% 3 months: +42.60% Year-to-date: +14.64% 1 year: +91.65% Uber stock price targets Needham & Company LLC: $71 KeyCorp: $79 JMP Securities: $75 Bank of America: $73 Truist Financial: $68 Gordon Haskett: $66 Mizuho: $77 The Goldman Sachs Group: $78 BMO Capital Markets: $69 Nomura: $62 Oppenheimer: $75 Tigress Financial: $72 Wells Fargo & Company: $64 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Morgan Stanley: $62 Uber Technologies Inc. is the 89th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.20 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap