Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
XAUUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The gold price trend can be viewed both positively and negatively in the short and medium term. As the close of last week's Doji bar indicates hesitation in the market. Although the previous three weeks, gold has had strong and consistent buying momentum since the beginning of March.
But even so, the gold price has not yet clearly shown strong selling momentum. Also, last week's close of the Doji bar was a candle close above the 1960 support, the latest high of gold prices on the Weekly timeframe. The bull rose to test the resistance 2070, which is an important resistance at the weekly timeframe level or the price line that gold has ever done the most in history. and in the event that gold prices cannot continue to rise A retracement to support at the time frame level of 1880 is the next target to watch.
But regardless of whether the price will rise or fall Short-term forecasts on the time frame day can be seen as the possibility of a sideways or consolidation between the 1960 support and the 2000 resistance until the price direction is clear. GBPUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The GBPUSD outlook is bullish in the short and medium term, as the pair is currently moving sideways on the daily time frame and H4 (support 1.19140 and resistance 1.21460) rises above them. 1.21460 plus continued buying momentum based on the weekly nighttime buy candlestick, although last week's closing price has retraced. Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term. forecasting that price There is a tendency for the price to rise to test the resistance of 1.24470, which is a key resistance at the time frame, which in the past the price has previously tested and formed a Double Top pattern, with the key support being 1.21460, a key support at the Tai level.
Timeframe predicts that the price may be shortened or sideways. Corrected to rebound to test the resistance of 1.24470, which is the price target of GBPUSD. EURUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The EURUSD started to lose its buying momentum significantly as the weekly timeframe was bullish as much as half of the candlestick. (Significantly) as last week's closing price was lower than last week's high.
After rallying to test the 1.08800 time frame resistance and then breaking up to the 1.09300 level, which was the strongest upside of the week. Before there is a continuous sell down forecasting that price There may be both upward and downward directions in the medium term, such as the time frame day. Due to the loss of buying momentum last week, the trend or trend of the price becomes less clear.
The important price line to watch in the day frame is support 1.05250 (latest low) and resistance 1.08800 (latest high).
Leading online broker GO Markets has hired ex-Pepperstone Head of Market Risk, Peter Spanos. Peter has joined GO Markets as Head of Risk & Product Development, flagging a new era of growth for the Australian-founded broker. Spanos said of his new position, “It’s exciting to work at a company with a supportive culture.
GO Markets has big plans for the future, with some notable key hires recently. I look forward to helping the company on that journey. It’s a great place to be, surrounded by lots of very talented people.” Spanos started out at IG 15 years ago, as Senior Quoting Dealer / Market Maker.
He then moved to CMC Markets as Volatility Risk Manager, and most recently Head of Market Risk at Pepperstone, a role he’d held since 2018. GO Markets Director, Khim Khor said, “It’s great to have Peter on board. He has a wealth of experience and fits well into the culture at GO Markets.
We are very optimistic about what the future holds.” Several key personnel from Pepperstone have moved to GO Markets in the last 3 years, including GO Markets’ current Chief Marketing Officer, Head of Design, and their recently hired Senior Premium Client Manager.
Australia’s biggest lender has suffered a dropped in price the last few days. Shares in the bank fell as much as 5.7% in early trading in Sydney while the broader market (.AXJO) fell 1.0%, amid concerns of a weaker mortgage business in the high interest rate environment and the bank's lending margins peaking. Key points Brokers think that CBA’s margins can benefit from higher interest rates, however bad debts could rise CBA shares are down approximately 5%, which is a similar fall to the ASX 200 Morgans thinks that there’s more declines to come for CBA shares, though the dividend is expected to rise However, is not all doom and gloom when you peel back the layers as long-term shareholders would testify that while CBA shares have dropped 15% over the past week, it only registers an 8.5% drop in the last 6 months.
They are also sitting at the same price it was before the COVID-19 crash of 2020. Morgans is expecting a growing dividend from the big bank in the future. The estimated grossed-up dividend yield is 5.7% in FY22 and 6.25% in FY23.
After 8 rate hikes in 2022 and a further quarter-basis point raise last week, the central bank has indicated more tightening ahead to stamp out inflation. Soaring rates have cooled off the housing market and added to rising cost of living. "We expect business credit growth to moderate and global economic growth to slow during 2023," said Chief Executive Officer Matt Comyn. "However, we remain optimistic that a soft landing for the Australian economy can be achieved." "We are conscious that many of our customers are feeling significant strain from rising interest rates, alongside the rising costs of electricity, groceries and other household items,” Comyn said in an analyst and investor briefing. Comyn said some customers have drawn down savings and reduced spending, but they have not fallen behind on repayments yet.
To conclude the RBA interest rate hike was always going to affect the markets and cost of living, this much was advised at the Jackson Hole meeting last year. Many analysts and bankers hope that Australia has enough about them to have a soft landing and avoid a recession coming into 2023. GO Markets provides access to a range of Securities in the ASX, NASDAQ, NYSE and LSE and other additional major markets, by providing our clients with access to a platform, where you can either build a diverse portfolio of ASX Shares, or alternatively you can trade these markets as a CFD, visit us here for more information www.gomarkets.com/au or call us on 03 8566 7680 to speak to one of our Account Managers.
Sources: https://www.fool.com.au/, https://www.reuters.com/
US telecommunications giant Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) announced the latest earnings results for the fiscal Q2 ending January 28, 2023, after market close in the US on Wednesday. Cisco beat revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. The company reported revenue of $13.592 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. the $13.419 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.88 per share (up by 5% year-over-year) vs. $0.855 EPS expected. Cisco also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.39 a share. CEO commentary ''With Cisco's strong Q2 performance, our fiscal 2023 is shaping up to be a great year," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "The modern, highly secure networks we are building serve as the backbone of our customers' technology strategy.
This, combined with the success of our ongoing business transformation and operational discipline gives me confidence in our future," Robbins added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by 5.24% at market close on Thursday in the US, trading at $50.96 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.99% 3 months: +10.68% Year-to-date: +8.24% 1 year: -7.54% Cisco stock price targets Loop Capital: $66 Piper Sandler: $53 UBS: $51 Cowen & Co.: $64 JP Morgan: $55 Credit Suisse: $69 Rosenblatt: $53 Wells Fargo: $57 Raymond James: $63 Morgan Stanley: $55 Cisco is the 46 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $211.81 billion. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis A hard-fought tug-of-war between bulls and bears played out on the DXY Index after U.S. inflation data crossed the wires. A knee-jerk reaction caused the greenback to plunge, but eventually it was able to recover and move into positive territory due to higher Treasury yields (DXY +0.10% to 103.41). However, a bearish USD outlook is held by economists at Bank of America Global Research, who see a mild recession in the USA for this year as fed cuts to begin only in March 2024. “We expect a mild recession starting mid-2023 and Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024.
For 2023, the market expects a much milder recession, with the Fed still hiking rate 1-2 more times before slightly cutting rates in second half of the year.” “For now, we still hold a bearish USD view for the medium term; 2023 playing out in line with leading indicator historical precedents would increase the upside risk to our bearish USD outlook.” US Dollar Index Technical Analysis The US Dollar index has been trading in a range between $102.6 to $104 for the last 7 days. At the time of writing, Dollar Index is currently trading at $103.93, which is a major level of resistance where price has fallen significantly from in the past (Jan 2017). As seen in the photo below, it shows that price has come up to test this trend line that can be clearly seen on the daily time frame, paired with the consolidation, if this daily candlestick closes below $104 there could be a high probability of the US dollar continuing with its higher time frame downtrend.
A break above this trend line however could indicate a move to the upside.
The EURJPY has been trading under the 142.70 resistance area since the end of December 2022. With the price failing to break through over several occasions, the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen has seen the EURJPY trade beyond the resistance level, signaling the potential for a significant move to the upside. The recent weakness in the Japanese Yen comes not only because of the strength of the DXY but from the announcement of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor.
Kazuo Ueda stated that the BoJ’s current monetary policy is appropriate and that should continue. A sustained move to the upside would not only be dependent on the weakness of the Japanese Yen. A recovery in the strength of the Euro could provide the additional push, to drive the EURJPY higher.
ECB President Lagarde has continued to maintain her hawkish view by commenting that she intends to raise rates by 50bps at the next ECB meeting in March. Looking at the technical analysis, the EURJPY is likely to retrace briefly down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the resistance turned support level, before trading higher toward the key resistance at 145.60, formed by the previous swing high level. However, if the EURJPY trades significantly lower, past the previous swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, this breakout potential could be invalidated.