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Langkah terbaru dalam minyak telah menempatkan nama-nama energi kembali dalam fokus. Selama enam bulan terakhir, Exxon Mobil dan Baker Hughes telah mengungguli minyak mentah Brent secara normal, Chevron tetap konstruktif secara luas, SLB telah tertinggal dari komoditas dan konsensus broker Woodside telah lebih terukur.
Ketika minyak mentah bergerak, dampaknya jarang tetap terkendali pada komoditas itu sendiri. Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat mempengaruhi ekspektasi inflasi, biaya pengiriman dan margin perusahaan di seluruh ekonomi global.
Apa yang ditunjukkan oleh langkah terbaru
Ada tiga cara besar perusahaan dapat memperoleh manfaat dari harga minyak yang lebih kencang:
- Memproduksi minyak dan gas, dengan menjual komoditas dengan harga yang lebih tinggi
- Menyediakan jasa dan peralatan kepada produsen
- Mengangkut minyak ke seluruh dunia
Masing-masing nama di bawah ini mewakili salah satu jenis eksposur tersebut, dengan profil risiko yang berbeda ketika minyak mentah naik.
1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Selama enam bulan terakhir, Exxon Mobil telah mengungguli minyak mentah Brent, dengan harga sahamnya naik hampir 35% dibandingkan dengan sekitar 30% untuk Brent. Pada 11 Maret 2026, keduanya diperdagangkan lebih dari 3% di bawah level tertinggi sepanjang masa, sementara Exxon tetap mendekati level tertinggi 52 minggu.
Exxon Mobil adalah salah satu perusahaan minyak terintegrasi terbesar di dunia, dengan eksposur yang mencakup eksplorasi, produksi, penyulingan, dan bahan kimia. Ketika harga minyak naik, bisnis hulu mungkin mendapat manfaat dari margin yang lebih luas, sementara skala dan diversifikasi dapat membantu melindungi bagian siklus yang lebih lemah.
Kinerja 6 bulan Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs Brent Crude
Konsensus analis: Beli
Menurut data TradingView, sentimen analis terhadap Exxon secara luas positif. Dari 31 analis yang dilacak, 15 menilai saham Strong Buy atau Buy, 13 menilai itu Hold, 1 menilai Sell dan 2 menilai Strong Sell.
Pandangan positif itu terkait dengan kekuatan neraca Exxon dan produksi margin yang lebih tinggi. Analis paling optimis memproyeksikan target harga 1 tahun setinggi US $183,00. Target harga rata-rata adalah US$145,00, yang berada sekitar 3,6% di bawah harga perdagangan saat ini.
2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Chevron adalah perusahaan utama terintegrasi global lainnya yang telah mendapat manfaat dari pergerakan minyak mentah baru-baru ini yang lebih tinggi, dengan sahamnya diperdagangkan mendekati level tertinggi 52 minggu. Seperti Exxon, Chevron beroperasi di seluruh rantai nilai, termasuk produksi hulu, pemurnian dan pemasaran.
Akuisisi Chevron atas Hess yang telah selesai menambahkan Guyana dan aset hulu lainnya, yang dilihat oleh beberapa analis sebagai pendukung dari waktu ke waktu. Konon, dampak pendapatan tetap tunduk pada integrasi, pelaksanaan proyek dan risiko harga komoditas.
Kinerja Exxon Mobil vs Chevron, grafik 6 bulan
Konsensus analis: Beli
Chevron dipandang mirip dengan Exxon, dengan sentimen broker tetap konstruktif secara luas. Agregat TradingView terbaru menunjukkan 30 analis yang mencakup saham selama tiga bulan terakhir, dengan 17 menilai itu Strong Buy atau Buy, 11 di Hold, 1 di Sell dan 1 di Strong Sell.
Analis telah menyoroti portofolio Chevron yang beragam dan potensi kontribusi dari Hess, meskipun volatilitas harga komoditas dan risiko eksekusi mungkin membuat beberapa orang lebih berhati-hati.
3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)
SLB, sebelumnya dikenal sebagai Schlumberger, adalah salah satu penyedia layanan ladang minyak dan teknologi terbesar di dunia. Ini memasok alat, peralatan, dan perangkat lunak yang membantu produsen menemukan, mengebor, dan menyelesaikan sumur dengan lebih efisien.
Selama enam bulan terakhir, SLB telah tertinggal dari minyak mentah Brent, dengan perdagangan harga saham dalam kisaran yang lebih tajam dan tetap di bawah puncaknya baru-baru ini. Itu menunjukkan latar belakang minyak yang lebih kuat belum sepenuhnya tercermin dalam harga saham.
Pola itu tidak biasa bagi perusahaan jasa ladang minyak, di mana keputusan pengeluaran pelanggan sering mengikuti pergerakan dalam komoditas yang mendasarinya daripada bergerak seiring dengan mereka. Setiap peringkat ulang di masa depan akan tergantung pada faktor-faktor termasuk pengeluaran modal produsen, waktu kontrak, harga layanan, aktivitas lepas pantai dan kondisi pasar yang lebih luas. Harga minyak yang lebih kuat seharusnya tidak diasumsikan secara otomatis diterjemahkan ke dalam harga saham SLB yang lebih kuat.
Minyak mentah SLB vs Brent, kinerja normal 6 bulan
Konsensus: Beli
Menurut data TradingView, konsensus analis pihak ketiga tentang SLB adalah Beli. Dari 33 analis yang meliput saham, 27 menilai Strong Buy atau Buy, 4 menilai Hold dan 2 menilai Sell atau Strong Sell.
Itu menunjukkan sentimen broker yang konstruktif, meskipun kesenjangan antara harga minyak dan kinerja harga saham SLB baru-baru ini menunjukkan investor mungkin masih menginginkan bukti yang lebih jelas tentang peningkatan permintaan layanan dan penetapan harga sebelum saham sepenuhnya mencerminkan latar belakang komoditas yang lebih kuat.
4. Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR)
Baker Hughes adalah penyedia layanan dan peralatan ladang minyak utama lainnya, dengan eksposur tambahan ke segmen industri seperti LNG dan infrastruktur listrik. Bahkan ketika harga minyak tidak berada pada titik tertinggi yang ekstrim, kemajuan dalam teknologi pengeboran dan biaya impas yang lebih rendah telah membantu menjaga banyak permainan serpih menguntungkan, mendukung permintaan akan layanannya.
Perusahaan juga telah digambarkan sebagai posisi yang baik karena neraca dan eksposurnya terhadap aktivitas eksplorasi dan produksi yang sedang berlangsung. Dalam periode harga minyak yang lebih tinggi, atau bahkan stabil ke perusahaan, campuran layanan dan teknologi energi dapat menciptakan beberapa pendorong pendapatan.
Selama enam bulan terakhir, Baker Hughes secara material mengungguli minyak mentah Brent secara normal. Brent diperdagangkan dalam kisaran yang jauh lebih ketat untuk sebagian besar periode sebelum bergerak lebih tinggi akhir-akhir ini, sementara BKR naik lebih mantap dan mencapai keuntungan kumulatif yang jauh lebih kuat. Itu menunjukkan harga saham BKR diuntungkan tidak hanya dari latar belakang minyak, tetapi juga dari optimisme khusus perusahaan dan dukungan yang lebih luas untuk layanan ladang minyak dan nama teknologi energi.
Minyak mentah BKR vs Brent, kinerja normal 6 bulan
Konsensus analis: Beli
Menurut data TradingView, Baker Hughes dikategorikan sebagai Strong Buy. Berdasarkan 25 analis yang memberikan peringkat selama tiga bulan terakhir, 16 menilai saham Strong Buy, 3 menilai itu Beli, 4 menilai itu Hold, 1 menilai Sell dan 1 menilai Strong Sell.
Secara keseluruhan, sentimen broker terhadap Baker Hughes secara luas positif, dengan lebih dari tiga perempat analis penutupan menilai saham baik Strong Buy atau Buy, sementara sebagian besar sisanya berada di Hold. Pandangan analis yang mendukung itu tampaknya mencerminkan paparan BKR terhadap layanan ladang minyak tradisional dan pasar teknologi energi dan industri yang lebih luas, termasuk infrastruktur LNG.
5. Energi Woodside (ASX: WDS)
Woodside Energy memberikan daftar produsen yang berbasis di Australia dengan eksposur signifikan ke pasar LNG dan minyak. Pendapatannya terkait erat dengan harga komoditas yang direalisasikan, yang membuat saham sensitif terhadap perubahan harga minyak mentah dan gas, serta permintaan energi global yang lebih luas.
Dibandingkan dengan beberapa nama energi AS yang lebih besar, sentimen broker terhadap Woodside tampak lebih terukur. Investor menyeimbangkan eksposur LNG global perusahaan dan leverage terhadap harga energi yang lebih kuat terhadap harga realisasi baru-baru ini yang lebih lunak, risiko proyek dan eksekusi, serta tekanan regulasi dan dekarbonisasi jangka panjang.
Konsensus analis: Tahan
Menurut data TradingView, Woodside dinilai Neutral/Hold. Dari 15 analis, 2 menilai itu Strong Buy, 4 menilai Beli, 7 menilai Hold, 1 menilai Sell dan 1 menilai Strong Sell.
Target harga rata-rata 12 bulan adalah A $29.20 versus harga saat ini sekitar A $30.28, menyiratkan penurunan sekitar 3.6%. Dibandingkan dengan nama energi AS yang lebih besar dalam daftar ini, itu menunjukkan pandangan broker yang lebih hati-hati.
6. Operator tanker minyak global
Perusahaan tanker minyak dapat memperoleh manfaat ketika harga minyak yang lebih kencang, perubahan kebijakan OPEC+ dan ketegangan geopolitik meningkatkan pengiriman jarak jauh dan mengganggu rute perdagangan biasa. Ketika volume minyak bergerak lebih jauh, permintaan 'tonne-mil' dapat mendukung tarif harian kapal tanker dan profitabilitas bahkan ketika pasar energi yang lebih luas tidak stabil.
Konsensus analis: N/A
Ini adalah kategori industri yang lebih luas daripada satu saham yang diperdagangkan secara publik, jadi tidak ada konsensus broker tunggal untuk dikutip. Pandangan analis perlu dinilai di tingkat perusahaan, seperti Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) atau Scorpio Tankers (STNG).
Secara lebih luas, sektor ini bersifat siklus. Manfaat apa pun dari pasar pengiriman yang lebih ketat dapat berbalik jika rute menjadi normal, tarif pengiriman turun atau pasokan meningkat.
Risiko dan kendala
Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi tidak menghilangkan risiko untuk nama-nama ini.
- Jika harga naik terlalu jauh, terlalu cepat, penghancuran permintaan dan respons kebijakan dapat membebani pendapatan di masa depan.
- Keputusan politik dari OPEC+ atau produsen utama lainnya dapat membalikkan reli dengan meningkatkan pasokan.
- Perusahaan jasa dan kapal tanker sangat siklis. Ketika siklus berubah, daya penetapan harga dapat memudar dengan cepat.
- Masalah khusus perusahaan, termasuk pelaksanaan proyek, penetapan harga realisasi dan pengeluaran modal, masih penting.
Secara keseluruhan, nama-nama ini mungkin mendapat manfaat dari harga minyak yang lebih kuat, tetapi mereka juga membawa risiko spesifik sektor, geopolitik, dan tingkat perusahaan yang patut mendapat perhatian ketat.
Pengamatan pasar utama
- Woodside menyediakan eksposur LNG dan minyak, meskipun sentimen broker saat ini lebih netral daripada untuk nama-nama AS yang lebih besar.
- Operator kapal tanker mungkin mendapat manfaat ketika pasar angkutan mengencang, meskipun perdagangan itu tetap sangat siklis dan bergantung pada rute.
- SLB dan Baker Hughes mungkin mendapat manfaat jika harga minyak yang lebih kuat diterjemahkan ke dalam lebih banyak kegiatan pengeboran dan penyelesaian, tetapi respons harga saham beragam.
- Exxon Mobil dan Chevron menawarkan eksposur langsung ke margin hulu yang lebih kuat, didukung oleh diversifikasi operasi.
Referensi dalam artikel ini untuk Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, operator tanker, peringkat konsensus analis dan target harga disertakan hanya untuk komentar pasar umum dan bukan merupakan rekomendasi atau penawaran sehubungan dengan produk keuangan atau keamanan apa pun. Data pihak ketiga, termasuk peringkat konsensus dan harga target, dapat berubah tanpa pemberitahuan dan tidak boleh diandalkan secara terpisah. Eksposur energi dan pengiriman bersifat siklus dan dapat dipengaruhi secara material oleh volatilitas harga komoditas, penetapan harga yang direalisasikan, perubahan produksi, pelaksanaan proyek, gangguan geopolitik, kondisi pasar pengiriman, perkembangan peraturan, dan pergeseran sentimen investor. Setiap pandangan tentang calon penerima manfaat dari harga minyak yang lebih tinggi tunduk pada ketidakpastian yang signifikan.
Global central banks have been a crucial part in providing aid and support to the global economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Faced with an unprecedented crisis, central bankers have rapidly deployed various monetary tools to keep credit flowing and support businesses and households. Given that interest rates were somewhat already at record-lows in many major countries, asset purchase schemes were widely used to put downward pressure on long-term rates.
Monetary policies were also accompanied by huge fiscal intervention. Also, in a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank have even agreed to lower their rates on currency swaps. What's Next?
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which will end on Wednesday with a statement followed by a press conference will be heavily eyed. Markets will likely look for clues on how the Fed’s is viewing the health of the economy after easing lockdown measures. Even though Friday’s jobs report came much better-than-expected and there was a decline in the unemployment rate from 14.7% to 13.3% in May, it is widely expected that the FOMC will keep rates steady near zero.
The scenario of negative interest rates is also highly unlikely. As the pandemic continues to create havoc on the global economy, it is also reshaping the political dynamics: Quarterly Forecasts Much attention will, therefore, be on the economic and interest rate forecasts. The Fed refrained from providing any forecasts during the pandemic given the tremendous uncertainties about the economic outlook.
This Fed’s meeting has, therefore, the potential to move markets if much details are revealed about future plans and expectations for inflation, GDP and unemployment. The projections are expected to be much worse than the favourable outlook seen in the last forecasts back in December. Dot Plots High unemployment and weak inflation have been the key factors forcing central banks to keep rates at record low levels.
The recent jobs reports came as a surprise and have raised expectations that the labour market may be rebounding at a quicker pace than expected. Investors would, therefore, look for explicit guidance from the Fed on how long they will likely keep rates near zero. Even though the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, the so-called dot plot which shows the entries of the FOMC officials regarding the interest rate forecasts will be scrutinized for guidance.
Latest dot plots – December 2019 Yield Curve Control As short-term interest rates approach zero, there have been recent speculations of the possibility that the Federal Reserve may control the yield curve and cap specific yields to cushion the impact of a downturn. Stock Market Global stocks have rallied significantly since March lows on the back of massive economic stimulus packages from central banks and governments which will likely stay in place for a while. In an extremely low-interest rate environment, quantitative easing and large fiscal policy measures have absorbed the pandemic-induced shocks and camouflaged the stark reality of the impact of the coronavirus.
On Monday, investors drove the S&P500 to a 15-week high, erasing its 2020 losses– lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery and a supportive Federal Reserve. After a great run to the upside, investors appear to be taking a pause and booked profits ahead of the Fed’s decision. Equity traders would want to hear that the Fed will stay accommodative, keep interest rates unchanged and remains committed to supporting the economy while still striking some optimistic tones on the recovery of the economy.
US Dollar The US dollar was mostly weaker against major currencies as risk sentiment has improved lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery following the reopening of economies earlier than initially expected. The surprising nonfarm payrolls have fueled those expectations and kept the greenback on the downside. If the Fed is set to look into the yield curve control as per the speculations, the US dollar may come under more pressure.
Source: Bloomberg Gold Amid the reopening of economies, geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar, the precious metal has been trading sideways within a $70 range as traders wait for the next biggest catalyst. As of writing, gold has firmed higher above the $1,700. Gold traders will eye the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.
XAUUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4
EU Recovery Fund After a standoff between the EU and Germany, following a critical ruling on ECB’s quantitative easing program by Germany’s constitutional court, the gradual reopening of economies of member states within the Eurozone has brought some optimism. The downside risks for the Eurozone and its shared currency have somewhat eased on the fact that Europe, which was the epicentre of COVID-19 after China, might have gone through the worst phase of the pandemic. The sentiment for the Euro was also buoyed by the EU Recovery fund proposed by Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron to help Europe’s mostly hit countries.
Unfortunately, the optimism over the coronavirus fund proposal, which aims to show unity in overcoming the crisis and to achieve quicker economic recovery, was short-lived. Europe’s Frugal Four Amid an unprecedented crisis, the Franco-German proposal was to provide support and reinforce EU financial relations and show that Europe is standing together. Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, dumbed as the “ frugal four ” put forward a counter-proposal that highlights the diversion of opinions in helping the Southern members states.
Grants or Loans The Franco-German proposal is about “overcoming the crisis united and emerging from it stronger ”. Both leaders proposed to make outright grants to help countries in need. They want to launch a temporary fund of 500 billion euro for EU budget expenditure: “This would not provide loans, but rather budget funding for the sectors and regions hit hardest by the crisis.
We firmly believe that it is both justified and necessary to now provide funding for this from the European side that we will gradually deploy across several European budgets in the future.” In contrast, the frugal four wishes to provide loans rather than grants to southern European countries and expect the recipients of loans to comply with the fundamental principles of the EU and commit to strong reforms in repaying the loans. Their two-year and “one-off” proposal appears to also outline how those countries should use the funds and target sectors that are mostly hit based on an assessment. The coronavirus pandemic is testing the solidarity of European members and is threatening to reawaken a euro crisis.
Southern countries like Greece, Italy and Spain lacked the fiscal space they need to put forward an economic stimulus package to support their economies, compared to Northern countries. Disparity? Compromise?
Both proposals are saying “ yes ” to emergency aids to assist with recovery, but the disparity lies on how the funds will be financed to respond to the economic wreckage. The size of the emergency fund, the conditions of the funds or whether it will be grants or loans will be a compromise the markets are expecting to see. However, the type of compromise might be a key factor in determining the relationships of EU members.
Unprecedented times probably need unprecedented Unity. Euro – The Shared Currency The fact that Europe may have gone through the worst phase of the coronavirus has somewhat eased the downside risks of the shared currency. But the current geopolitical tensions with China and uncertainties on the EU Recovery plan are putting a lid on the upside momentum of the Euro.
After the sharp plunge in March, the EURUSD pair has been trading within the 1.08 to 1.09 range. Yesterday, the better-than-expected IFO Surveys in Germany has helped the pair to hold ground and hover around the 1.09 level. The recovery plan could mitigate the selling pressure and allow a probable move above 1.10 level if there is a compromise that satisfies the frugal four.
EURUSD Source: Bloomberg Terminal The immediate attention turns to the European Commission which is supposed to unveil a draft recovery plan on May 27 th, 2020. About GO Markets GO Markets was established in Australia in 2006 as a provider of online CFD trading services. For over a decade, we have positioned ourselves as a firmly trusted and leading global regulated CFD provider.
The Logistics Company has reported a 27% decline in net profit (after tax) for the six months ended 31 December. The drop in profit is mainly due to higher costs on: Fuel Transport Brexit-proofing costs. The company was also deprived of the one-off tax benefit of US$130 million from a year ago.
Below is a summary of key metrics: Source: www.brambles.com With respect to the IFCO reusable plastic container business, the Chief Executive, Mr Chipchase did not provide any concrete information and said that the process “is not sufficiently” advanced, further adding that the company has not yet made any decisions on whether they will “sell” or “de-merge” it. Its share price dropped to a low of $10.85 which is a drop above 3% before rebounding slightly. As of writing, it is trading at $11.04:
Central banks of major economies like the US, UK and Japan turned to quantitative easing (QE) at a time where they were unable to push interest rates any lower. The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its first large scale of asset purchases in 2015 and was among the latest central bank to join the QE bandwagon. How QE works The ECB adopted the QE program to address the risks of a prolonged period of low inflation and help the Eurozone to return to the desired inflation level.
The QE, also known as the Asset Purchase Program (APP), consists of: Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) Asset-backed Securities Purchase Programme (ABSPP) Third Covered Bond Purchase Programme (CBPP3) On 13 December 2018, the ECB decided to end the net purchases under the APP and announced that it would keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for a long time after its first interest rate hike. Market Expectations As the economic sentiment in the eurozone is worsening rapidly, investors are expecting the central bank to announce a robust stimulus package at its next meeting on Thursday: An Interest Rate Cut and Resuming Quantitative Easing. However, we saw divergent opinions on whether the central bank should resume asset purchases.
An Interest Rate Cut An interest rate policy by itself might not be enough, as cutting rates that are already negative will bring little help to the markets. If the central bank resume bond purchases, it could boost monetary and financing conditions. However, we are seeing divergent opinions on whether the central bank should resume asset purchases.
QE2 – The Second Round of Quantitative Easing In the height of the eurozone crisis from 2011-2014, such policies were probably justified. The current weakness in the euro- area might not be weak enough to warrant such a step, and there is now much skepticism on recommencing such non-standard and controversial monetary policies. The ECB policymakers have also dampened expectations of the resumption of bond purchases lately.
Market participants were initially expecting Mario Draghi to end its term with a significant package of monetary stimulus before Christine Lagarde takes over. It was are largely priced-in and now that the expectations eased ahead of the meeting, we are seeing European bond yields bouncing off record lows. Money markets and the foreign exchange markets are still expecting a traditional monetary policy intervention – at least a 10-basis point rate cut.
The Euro received a boost on Monday on hopes of German fiscal stimulus, though some expectations of monetary easing have limited the gains. EURUSD (H4 Chart) Source: GO MT4 If the central bank failed to satisfy dovish expectations already instilled in the markets, the shared currency may get a boost. The EURUSD pair may be trading sideways around the 1.10 level ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
The pair could pick up a strong bid if the central bank falls short of expectations.
The week kicked off with a series of ECB speeches, and markets participants were gearing up to have more updates on the Eurozone economy, interest rate and Italy. Investors were keen to see whether the ECB downplays the slowdown in the German economy and the Italian Budget risks. We bring you a summary of the main headlines following the speeches: ECB’s Praet Speech: Peter Praet is a member of the ECB’s Executive Board since 2011.
The most captivating headlines from the latter are probably: “ The eurozone has lost some growth momentum, and headwinds are becoming increasingly noticeable.” He also argued that there is limited spillover from Italy so far. Praet acknowledged how the factors related to protectionism, financial market volatility and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are creating headwinds. He reiterated that the ECB policy will remain predictable and will proceed at a gradual pace.
He mentioned that it would need a big change in scenarios not to abide by rate guidance. ECB’s Nowotny Speech: Ewald Nowotny is the governor of the National Bank of Austria and member of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s governing council. Nowotny discussed the quantitative easing program and that the ending process poses little risk to financial stability.
He believes that “ a well-communicated exit may benefit financial health and very low rates for a long time may impair stability ”. ECB’s Coeuré Speech: Benoît Cœuré is a member of the ECB's Executive Board. The speech was mainly focused on Growth, Europe and Togetherness.
His speech captures how to reap the benefits of the Single Market. He highlighted how Europe’s East is not catching up which might question the value of the EU. “There have been some notable improvements in certain countries over time, but in others the process of gradually catching up with their EU peers appears to have stalled, or even to have backtracked, in recent years.” “And if there is no credible prospect of lower-income countries catching up soon, there is a risk that people living in those countries begin questioning the very benefits of membership of the EU or the currency union.” ECB’s President Draghi’s Speech: The President provided further insights into the euro area outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy. “The data that have become available since my last visit in September have been somewhat weaker than expected.” “A gradual slowdown is normal as expansions mature and growth converges towards its long-run potential…. Some of the slowdowns may also be temporary.” “Underlying drivers of domestic demand remain in place.” Overall, he expressed that the ECB maintained their view that the economy was still in line with expectations.
However, inflationary pressures were lower than expected which means that while bond purchases are set to end in December, the ECB will maintain significant monetary stimulus due to the moderation in recent data.
Dissecting the FOMC Statement The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates overnight by 25 basis points, taking the US Federal Funds rate to 2.25%. The rate cut was mostly seen as a hawkish one. In the press conference, Chair Powell said that the central bank’s rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment to policy ” rather than “the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.” We have dissected the July FOMC statement in comparison with the June statement to highlight the changes for ease of reference.