The Crucial Data is Finally Here | GO Markets Week Ahead

Markets have bounced back strongly this week. The S&P 500 is now just 1.5% from record highs, and the Nasdaq is recovering well following its pullback.

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Rate Cut Expectations

The main driver behind this rally was a shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Markets are currently pricing in a quarter-point rate cut for December, with only a 25% chance of another reduction in January. This week's economic data will be crucial in shaping expectations going into 2026.

Key Economic Data This Week

Several important data releases are scheduled for this week.  The PCE inflation data — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — for September will finally be released on Friday and could have the biggest impact on December and January rate decisions. The ADP jobs report and weekly jobless claims will also be released, while the non-farm payrolls report has been delayed again.

Global Manufacturing Snapshot

Today also kicks off a busy week of manufacturing data releases. Global PMI numbers are due across the board, including figures from the Eurozone, UK, Germany, and the US this evening. These reports will provide a critical snapshot of global economic health and could help reveal the impact of the US trade tariffs.

Gold Breaks Higher

Gold made a significant move on Friday, breaching the key $4,200 level after consolidating last week. The precious metal has followed through today, and the $4,400 level now looks achievable if buying pressure continues.

Bitcoin Under Pressure

Bitcoin has given up last week's modest gains and seen substantial selling pressure. A significant drop of about $4,000 occurred during Asian trading this morning — a notable decline for an Asia session. The key level to watch is $84,000, with potential support at $80,000 (the lowest level since March).

Market Insights

‍Watch Mike Smith's analysis of the week ahead in markets.

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Key Economic Events

‍Stay up to date with the key economic events for the week.

One of the most impactful books I’ve ever read is “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change” by Stephen Covey. 

When it was first published in 1989, it quickly became one of the most influential works in business and personal development literature, and retained its place on bestseller lists for the next couple of decades.

The compelling, comprehensive, and structured framework for personal growth presented in the book has undoubtedly inspired many to rethink how they organise their lives and priorities, both professionally and personally.

Although its lessons were originally designed for self-improvement and positive structured growth, the underlying principles are universal, making them easily transferable to many areas of life, including trading.

In this article, you will explore how each of Covey’s seven original habits can be reframed within a trading context, in an attempt to offer a structure that may help guide you to becoming the best trader you can be.

1. Be Proactive

Being proactive means recognising that we have the power to choose our responses and to shape outcomes through appropriate preparation with subsequent planned reactions.

In a Trading Context:

For traders, this means anticipating potential problems before they arise and putting measures in place to better mitigate risk. 

Rather than waiting for issues to unfold, the proactive trader identifies potential areas of concern and ensures that they have access to the right tools, resources, and people to prepare effectively, whatever the market may throw at them.

What This Means for You:

Being proactive may involve seeking out quality education and services, maintaining access to accurate and timely market information, continually assessing risk and opportunity, and having systems to manage those risks within defined limits.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Inadequate preparation and a lack of defined systems often lead to poor trading decisions and less-than-desired outcomes. 

Failing to assess risk properly can result in significant and often avoidable losses. 

By contrast, a proactive approach builds resilience and confidence, ensuring that when challenges arise, your response is measured and less emotionally driven by what is happening on the screen in front of you.

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2. Begin with the End in Mind

Covey's second habit is about defining purpose. It suggests that effective people are more likely to achieve what is possible if they start with a clear understanding of their destination, so every action aligns with that ultimate vision.

In a Trading Context:

Ask yourself: What is my true purpose for trading? 

Many traders may instinctively answer “to make money,” but money is surely only a vehicle to achieve something else in your world for you and those you care about, not a purpose per se. 

You need to clarify what trading success really means for you. 

Is it a greater degree of financial independence through increased income or capital growth, the freedom of having more time, achieving a personal challenge of becoming an effective trader, or a combination of any of these?

What This Means to You:

Try framing your purpose as, “I must become a better trader so that I can…” and complete a list with your genuine reasons for tackling the market and its challenges. 

This helps you establish meaningful short-term development goals that keep you moving toward your vision. Keep that purpose visible, as a note near your trading screen that reminds you why you are doing this.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Traders with a clearly defined purpose are more likely to stay disciplined and consistent. 

Those without one often drift, chasing short-term gains without direction. There is ample evidence that formalising your development in whatever context through goal setting can significantly increase the likelihood of success. Why would trading be any different?

Surely the bottom-line question to ask yourself is, “Am I willing to risk my potential by trading without purpose?”

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3. Put First Things First

This habit is about time management and prioritisation. This involves focusing your efforts and energy on what truly matters. As part of the exploration of this concept, Covey emphasised distinguishing between what is important and what is merely urgent.

In a Trading Context:

Trading demands commitment, learning, and reflection. 

It is not just about screen time but about using that time effectively. 

Managing activities to ensure your effort is spent wisely on planning, measuring, journaling and performance evaluation, and refining systems, accordingly, are all critical to sustaining both improvements in results and balance.

What This Means to You:

Traders often believe they need to spend more time trading when what they really need is to focus on better time allocation. 

It is logical to suggest that prioritising activities that can often contribute directly to improvement, such as system testing, reviewing performance, analysing results, and refining your strategy, is worthwhile. 

These high-value tasks can help traders focus their time more deliberately and systematically.

Consequences of Non-Action:

If you fail to control your trading time effectively, you will be more likely to spend much of it on low-impact activities that produce little progress. 

Over time, this not only hurts your results but also reduces the real “hourly value” of your trading effort. 

In business terms, and of course, you should be treating your trading as you would any business activity; poor prioritisation can inflate your costs and diminish your potential trading outcomes.

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4. Think Win: Win

Covey's fourth habit encouraged an attitude of mutual benefit, where seeking solutions that facilitate positive outcomes for all parties. 

In a Trading Context:

In trading, this concept must be adapted to suggest that developing a mindset that recognises every well-executed plan as a win, even when an individual trade results in a loss.

Some trading ideas will simply not work out, and so some losses are inevitable, but if they remain within defined limits, they should not be viewed as failures but rather as a successful adherence to a trading plan. In the aim of developing consistency in action, and the widely held belief that this is one of the cornerstones of effective trading, then it surely is a win to fulfil this.

So, in simple terms, the real “win” lies in a combination of maintaining discipline, following your system, and controlling risk beyond just looking at the P/L of a single trade.

What This Means to You:

Building and trading clear, unambiguous systems that you follow consistently has got to be the goal.

This process produces reliable data that you can later analyse and subsequently use to refine specific strategies and personal performance.

When you do this, every outcome, whether profit or loss, can serve as valuable feedback. 

For example, a controlled loss that fits your plan is proof that your system works and that you are protecting your capital. 

Alternatively, a trailing stop strategy, which means you exit trades in a timely way and give less profit back to the market, provides positive feedback that your system has merit in achieving outcomes. 

Consequences of Non-Action:

Without this mindset shift, traders can become emotionally reactive, interpreting normal drawdowns as personal defeats. 

This fosters loss aversion and other biases that can erode decision-making quality if left unchecked. Through the process of redefining “winning,” you are potentially safeguarding both your capital and, importantly, your trading confidence (a key component of trading discipline).

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5. Seek First to Understand and Then Take Action

Covey's fifth habit emphasises empathy, the act of listening and aiming to fully understand before responding. In trading, this principle translates to understanding the market environment before taking any action.

In a Trading Context:

Many traders act impulsively, driven by excitement or fear, which often results in entering trades without taking into account the full context of what is happening in the market, and/or the potential short-term influences on sentiment that may increase risk. 

This “minimalisation bias,” defined as acting on limited information, will rarely produce consistent results. Instead, adopt a process that begins with observation and comprehension.

What This Means to You:

Establishing a daily pre-trading routine is critical. This may include a review of key markets, sentiment indicators, and potential catalysts for change, such as imminent key data releases. Understanding what the market is telling you before you decide what to do is the aim of having this sort of daily agenda. 

This approach may not only improve trade selection but also enable you to get into a state of psychological readiness that can facilitate decision-making quality throughout the session.

Consequences of Non-Action:

Failing to prepare for the trading day ahead can mean not only exposing yourself to unnecessary risk but also arguably being more likely to miss potential opportunities. 

A trader who acts without understanding is vulnerable both psychologically and financially. Conversely, being forewarned is being forearmed. When you aim to understand markets first before any type of trading activity, your actions are more likely to be deliberate, grounded, and more effective.

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6. Synergise

Synergy in Covey's model means valuing differences and combining the strengths of those around you to create outcomes greater than the sum of their parts.

In a Trading Context:

In trading, synergy refers to the integration of multiple systems and disciplines that work together. This includes your plan, your record keeping and performance management processes, your time management, and your emotional balance. 

No single system is enough; success comes from the synergy of elements that support and inform one another.

What This Means to You:

Integrating learning and measurement is an integral part of your trading development process. Journaling, for example, allows you to assess not only your technical performance but also your behavioural consistency. 

This self-awareness allows you to refine your plan and so helps you operate with greater confidence. 

The synergy between rational analysis and emotional composure is what is more likely to lead to consistently sound trading decisions.

Consequences of Non-Action:

When logic and emotion are out of balance, decision-making will inevitably suffer. 

If your systems are incomplete, ambiguous, or poorly connected to the reality of your current level of understanding, competence and confidence, your results are likely to be inconsistent. Building synergy across all areas of your trading practice, including that of evaluation and development in critical trading areas, will help create cohesion, efficiency, and better performance.

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7. Sharpen the Saw

Covey's final habit focuses on continuous learning and refinement, including maintaining and improving the tools at your disposal and skills and knowledge that allow you to perform effectively.

In a Trading Context:

In trading, this translates to creating a plan to achieve ongoing, purposeful learning. 

Even small insights can make a large difference in results. Effective traders continually refine their knowledge, ask new questions, and apply lessons from experience.

What This Means to You:

Trading learning can, of course, take many forms. Discovering new indicators that may offer some confluence to price action, testing different strategies, exploring new markets, or simply understanding more about yourself as a trader. 

There is little doubt that active participation in learning keeps you engaged, adaptable and sharp. Even making sure you ask at least one question at a seminar or webinar or making a simple list at the end of each session of the "3 things I learned", can be invaluable in developing momentum for your growth as a trader.

Your record-keeping and performance metrics should generate fresh questions that can guide future development. 

Consequences of Non-Action:

Without direction in your learning, your progress is likely to slow. 

I often reference that when someone talks about trading experience in several years, this is only meaningful if there has been continuous growth, rather than staying in the same place every year (i.e. only one year of meaningful experience) 

Passive trading learning, for example, reading an article without applying, watching a webinar without engagement, or measuring without closing the circle through putting an action plan together for your development, can all lead to stagnation. 

It is fair to suggest that taking shortcuts in trading learning is likely to translate directly into shortcuts in result success. 

Active, focused development is essential for sustained improvement.

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Are You Ready for Action?

Stephen Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People presented a timeless model for self-development and purposeful living.

When applied to trading, these same habits form a powerful framework for consistency, focus, and growth.

Trading is a pursuit that demands both technical skill and emotional strength. Success is rarely about finding the perfect system, but about developing the right habits that support consistent, rational decision-making over time. 

By integrating the principles of Covey’s seven habits into your trading practice, you create a foundation not only for profitability but for continual personal growth.

Markets found support last Friday after what was the worst week for global markets since Liberation Day.

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Shortened Thanksgiving Week

‍This week, Thanksgiving Day impacts the US trading schedule, affecting both liquidity and data timing. Despite the shortened week, it's still packed with key releases. The PCE index, US PPI, retail sales, GDP, and weekly jobs figures are set for a concentrated release on Wednesday, before the Thursday holiday.

‍Australian CPI in Focus

‍Australian CPI data also drops on Wednesday, and it's shaping up to be a crucial number. With strong signals from the RBA indicating a Christmas interest rate cut is unlikely, this inflation reading could either reinforce or challenge the RBA's stance — a must-watch for any surprises that might move rate expectations.

‍Gold Coiling

‍Gold has established a strong base above $4,000. The chart shows six consecutive weekly candles testing support around $4,065, with clear rejection of downside moves. This pattern suggests insufficient selling pressure to push prices lower, potentially setting the stage for a move back toward $4,200-$4,250 if buyers step in.

‍Bitcoin Under Pressure

‍Bitcoin is experiencing another wave of selling. The weekend brought some respite with a bounce off $84,000, but the current support level sits at $82,000—a level we haven't seen since April. While there may be short-covering opportunities toward $92,000, the buyer momentum looks weak, and another test of $82,000 support appears equally likely.

Market Insights

Watch Mike Smith's analysis for the week ahead in markets.

Key Economic Events

Stay up to date with the key economic events of the week.