ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

As we head into the Thanksgiving holidays, the continuing factors dominating headlines remain Brexit and Italy. This Wednesday was an important day for Brexit and Italy, but the events unfolded without any major catalysts or breakthrough. Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker meeting in Brussels: It appears that some progress has been made.

The comments unfolding after the meeting were positive “ further progress has been made, very good progress”. However, it looks like both parties still failed to reach a final deal as Theresa May will be flying back to Brussels on Saturday ahead of Sunday EU summit to conclude the progress made. Brexit continues to be the primary driver for the Sterling pairs.

After last week’s sharp decline, the GBPUSD pair has been navigating within the 1.27 and 1.28 range finding buyers only at times when the US dollar is weaker. At first glance, on the hourly chart, we can see that the 1.288 mark which acted as a support line before the deep fall is now acting as a resistance line. There were a few attempts to break through and move towards the 1.29 level, but bulls were unable to push beyond that resistance line.

The renewed weakness in the US dollar failed to lift the pair as sentiment remained dampened by Brexit uncertainties. The last-minute talks and the race against time are making investors nervous and reluctant to take the local currency in a firm direction unless there is more clarity on the remaining issues. GBPUSD (Hourly Chart) Would the exit agreement be signed on Sunday or be postponed?

The European Union (EU) decision on Italy: The EU once again rejected Italy revised draft and is moving closer to placing sanctions on Italy for not submitting a budget proposal that abides by the rules. The Budget included the fulfilment of election promises explaining why Italy is keen to push such a big spending budget. Domestic politics mostly drive the shared currency.

At the moment, the EURUSD is finding upside support when the greenback is falling. On Tuesday, the pair broke from the bearish trend, it was trapped in since the end of September, but Brexit and Italian budget jitters are keeping a lid on the gains. So far, the pair is struggling to retest this month high and is currently trading in the 1.13 range.

The current situation is paving the way for an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Italy and traders will likely monitor any developments on that matter!

Commodities markets were on sell-off mode on Friday. The black and yellow gold was sent to the downside dragged by the disappointing Purchasing Managers Index data. Gold - XAUUSD The Chart shows that Gold price pulled back as from last Wednesday on a broad-based US dollar strength and retreated from its 2019 highs.

The yellow metal struggled to find buyers amid a risk-on mode. Being driven mostly by the greenback, Gold traders will eye the series of US data releases this week for fresh trading impetus. Central banks rate decisions scheduled across the week and trade or Brexit headlines may also bring some volatility.

Technically, XAUUSD is in the RSI oversold conditions and the positive trade headlines emerging this morning might help the yellow metal to bounce back. After being in a consolidation period throughout the month of January, XAUUSD has continued trading to the upside capped by a rising trend line. However, gold prices gave up the bullish momentum and dropped below the line setting a bearish tone for XAUUSD.

XAUUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4 WTI and Brent Crude Oil prices were also under pressure on Friday whereby WTI and Brent Crude erased more than 2%. After ending February in positive territory, oil prices started a new month in the red. The tightening of global supplies and the US sanctions have supported the upside price action of oil prices since the beginning of the year and last week sell-off started with President Trump’s comments on high oil prices.

UKOUSD and USOUSD (H4 Chart) Source: GO MT4 We expect the weekly oil reports to provide short-term direction for oil prices: Tuesday: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Thursday: EIA Report Friday: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Boeing (BA) The Aerospace giant beat estimates and reported a record $101.1bn revenue for the year 2018. It is the first time that the company reports more than $100bn as annual revenue. Below is a summary of the fourth quarter earnings.

Record revenue of $28.3 billion and record operating profit of $4.2 billion driven by higher volume Record GAAP EPS of $5.93 and record core EPS (non-GAAP) of $5.48 on a strong performance Despite some uncertainties around trade tensions that rattled Boeing’s stock in the past few months, the year-end results far-exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. We saw record numbers in commercial aeroplane deliveries, which indicates a strong demand for commercial air travel. The quarterly results helped drive the equity markets: Boeing’s share price jumped to $387.72, up by 6.25%: The Dow Jones Average Industrials surged higher by 1.77% which is an addition of 434.90 points.

The upbeat corporate earnings and a more dovish Fed helped the index close above 25,000, for the first time since December. Boeing and China have a close relationship, and the CEO of the aerospace giant who has been involved in discussions with both governments sees progress on the trade front: “China needs airplanes for growth to fuel their economy, while in the U.S., the aerospace industry is a “tremendous” jobs generator.” The Company provides the following guidance on its outlook for 2019: Revenue guidance of between $109.5 and $111.5 billion reflects higher volume across all businesses GAAP EPS of between $21.90 and $22.10; core EPS (non-GAAP)* of between $19.90 and $20.10 Operating cash flow expected to increase to between $17.0 and $17.5 billion Despite the current trade tensions, it is good to see a company which is closely linked with China beating estimates and raise EPS and revenue forecasts. Facebook Another surprise on the upside was Facebook.

Despite privacy-related scandals, Facebook beats quarterly revenue and profit estimates. The growth was supported by Instagram business and the rise in advertising spending by companies. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Operational and Other Financial Highlights: Daily active users (DAUs) – DAUs were 1.52 billion on average for December 2018, an increase of 9% year-over-year.

Monthly active users (MAUs) – MAUs were 2.32 billion as of December 31, 2018, an increase of 9% year-over-year. Mobile advertising revenue – Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 93% of advertising revenue for the fourth quarter of 2018, up from approximately 89% of advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of 2017. Capital expenditures – Capital expenditures were $4.37 billion and $13.92 billion for the fourth quarter and full year 2018, respectively.

Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities – Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities were $41.11 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. Headcount – Headcount was 35,587 as of December 31, 2018, an increase of 42% year-over-year The company’s privacy and data practices came under heavy scrutiny last year, yet this did not deter companies to ramp up advertising ads with Facebook. The release of the earnings report was overshadowed by the news that Facebook paid teens in order to monitor their phones via an unsettling research app which is only allowed to be used by Facebook or its employees.

Facebook’s share price was rallying ahead of its earnings and gained 17.32% so far post-report in the extended hours. Despite companies like Caterpillar, Tesla and Microsoft missing estimates or downgrading forecasts, Apple, Boeing and Facebook are among those that surprised on the upside. More dovishness from the Fed is also providing support to the equity markets.

In the Australian share market, the focus remains on the earnings report. Most sectors were trading in negative territory with significant losses in the energy and information technology sectors. The technology sector was dragged by Altium Ltd.

Altium is the world’s leading software company. It has helped a wide range of companies succeed in designing next-generation electronic products and systems. The company has offices worldwide with around 600 employees and a rapidly growing network of channel partners.

Their main operations centres are in: Sydney San Diego Munich Shanghai Altium at Record High Ahead of the half-year results, the company’s share price was trading at an all-time high of $42.63 as investors were confident about the performance of the software company. However, its share price dropped on Tuesday after investors analysed the results and forecasts. Source: Altium The company delivered a strong half-year performance: Strong revenue growth of 19% Record EBITDA Margin of 39.7% A strong profit before tax growth of 23% Record growth of 16% increase in subscriber base to 46,693 Record growth of 19% increase in Altium Designer seats with 4,205 new licenses sold The Impact of the Coronavirus Despite maintaining its full-year revenue between US$205m to US$215m and margin guidance, the company’s share price slumped by more than 15% on Tuesday morning.

Given that one of the major operation centres is located in China and is an integral part of the business, the company warns of the emerging uncertainty of the impact of the virus. As performance may be impacted, the company is expected to meet the lower end of the revenue and margin guidance. As of writing, its share price has pared some losses and is currently down by around 7% at $39.12.

It was another busy day for the Australian share market with a series of corporate results; namely for Asaleo Care, Crown, Cleanaway, Domino's Pizza, Fletcher Building, Fortescue Metals, Lovisa, McPherson's, Mount Gibson, McMillan Shakespeare, Nearmap, Seven Group, Sonic Healthcare, St Barbara, Stockland, Vicinity Centres, Wesfarmers, and WiseTech Global. We have seen big moves in the markets after the earnings reports on Wednesday, which drove the Australian equity benchmark to record highs. The Index added 31 points or 0.43% to 7,145 points.

Cleanaway Waste Management, Domino’s Pizza, Netwealth Group, Webjet and Cochlear led gains and offset the huge losses that were seen in technology stocks like EML Payments and Wisetech Global. Source: Bloomberg Terminal Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY), a leader in sustainable total waste management solutions in Australia rose by more than 15% on upbeat results and emerged as the best performer of the ASX200: Underlying NPAT (pre AASB161) at $76.2m was up 13.7% Underlying EBIT (pre AASB161) at $125.2m up 6.8% and margin expansion by 70bps to 11.7% Underlying EBITDA (pre AASB161) at $234.6m up 2.5% and margin expansion by 40bps to 21.9% Net revenue up 0.5% with organic growth offsetting the impact of lower commodities revenue and the introduction of Queensland landfill levies Footprint 2025 Progress: Integration of Toxfree on track; completed SKM acquisition and integration commenced; Plastic Pelletizing MOU confirmed; announced EfW project in Sydney FY20 underlying EBITDA guidance post AASB16 of ~$515m to $525m Wisetech Global (WTC) share price plummeted by more than 25% despite strong growth, as the company warns of the effect of the COVID19 on the logistic activities. Total 1H20 revenue of $205.9m, up 31% NPATA1 of $33.5m, up 22% Net profit attributable to equity holders of $59.9m, up 160% EBITDA $62.5m, up 29% A fully franked interim dividend of 1.70 cents per share After last year’s reports alleging that the company was manipulating its accounts, the downgrade of its forecast for the full year from a range of between $440 million and $460 million to between $420 million and $450 million has spooked investors.

The Australian economy experienced its first recession in almost three decades having contracted for two consecutive quarters. Back in June, the economy slumped by 7% and encountered the worst fall on record. As other global economies, Australia was heavily impacted by an unprecedented raging pandemic.

The fall in the June quarter was driven by private demand, which detracted 7.9 percentage points from GDP. The record fall in household consumption (-12.1%), accounted for over 95% of the fall in GDP. Source: abs.gov.au Third-quarter bounce As COVID-19 related restrictions eased across most states and territories to the exception of Melbourne which is Australia’s the second most-populated and largest city, the Australian economy emerged from a recession and rose 3.3% in September quarter.

The GDP figures came above expectations of a 2.5% growth. Given the havoc created by the pandemic, the level of economic activity remains low and GDP has declined by 3.8% in the year to September 2020. Source: Bloomberg However, given that Melbourne which was the only state to record a fall driven by declines in household spending and investment has now eased restrictions, policymakers are expecting the economy to continue to grow in the fourth quarter, unlike some other major economies which are still battling a second wave of the outbreak.

Australian share market After rising at the open, the ASX200 fell into negative territory into lunchtime with most sectors in the red while gains were seen in the materials and industrial sectors. As of writing, the index was trading relatively flat at 6,587.20 points. Source: Bloomberg Terminal The Australian dollar While major currency pairs remained in familiar levels during the Asian session, the Aussie dollar is leading among the G10 currencies against the US dollar on the back of upbeat GDP figures.

The additional funding from the central banks, governments, renewed confidence, and economic data have helped the Australian dollar to perform better than its peers. Source: Bloomberg Terminal The AUDUSD pair rose to a session high of 0.7389 just below a key psychological level of 0.74 before retreating slightly lower. Source: GO MT4