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ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

ก้าวนำตลาดด้วยมุมมองเชิงลึกจากผู้เชี่ยวชาญ ข่าวสาร และการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค เพื่อเป็นแนวทางในการตัดสินใจซื้อขายของคุณ.

Shares and Indices
Meta earnings results are in – the stock falls in the after-hours

Meta Platforms (META) announced its Q2 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The social media giant fell short of analyst expectations for the quarter. Revenue reported at $28.822 billion in Q2 (down by 1% year-over-year), vs. analyst estimate of $28.908 billion.

Earnings per share at $2.46 per share (down by 32% year-over-year) vs. $2.54 per share expected. "It was good to see positive trajectory on our engagement trends this quarter coming from products like Reels and our investments in AI," Mark Zuckerberg, Meta founder and CEO said in a press release following the announcement of the latest results. "We're putting increased energy and focus around our key company priorities that unlock both near and long term opportunities for Meta and the people and businesses that use our services," Zuckerberg added. Q3 2022 projections David Wehner, CFO of Meta: "We expect third quarter 2022 total revenue to be in the range of $26-28.5 billion. This outlook reflects a continuation of the weak advertising demand environment we experienced throughout the second quarter, which we believe is being driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

We also anticipate third quarter Reality Labs revenue to be lower than second quarter revenue. Our guidance assumes foreign currency will be an approximately 6% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth in the third quarter, based on current exchange rates." Meta Platforms (META) chart* *Meta Platforms (META) is displayed as Facebook Inc. (FB) on the GO Markets MetaTrader 5 platform Share price of Meta was up by 6.55% at the closing bell on Wednesday, trading at $169.32 per share. The stock fell by around 3% in the after-hours trading.

Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +1.76% 3 Month -4.64% Year-to-date -50.40% 1 Year -55.31% Meta Platforms price targets Keybanc $190 Mizuho $250 Rosenblatt $181 Deutsche Bank $235 Morgan Stanley $280 Credit Suisse $245 Citigroup $270 Cowen & Co. 275 Meta Platforms is the 11 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $451.42 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms (META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Meta Platforms, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
July 27, 2022
Shares and Indices
Short Term Break Out on the S&P500

The S&P 500 has been battered and bruised in one of the worst first half of the years in history. However, there are some signs that it may be turning. A short term long buying opportunity on the SPY looks to be apparent.

With the recent bullish sentiment due to the market believing that much of the forecast slowing growth and interest rate hikes have been prices into the market already. The trading opportunity is a technical breakout of a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Firstly it is important to recognise that the S&P500 is still in a longer term down trend.

This can be seen on the chart below. Since December 2021 the SPX has been in a downward channel making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore it is important to understand that this opportunity will be against the longer general trend of the market.

The Chart On the chart the wedge at the bottom of the channel has broken to the upside. Without this break it could’ve been possible that this would've formed into a bear flag. However on the contrary, it looks to have developed into a reversal pattern, as the price has coiled.

Furthermore, and importantly, the price has broken above the 50 day average. This is also supported by the MACD. The MACD is not just showing a crossover.

To add support to the reversal, the MACD is showing a double bottom pattern of exhaustion as it looks to break over the zero line for the first time since April. A conservative target would be the convergence of the next level of resistance and also the top line of the channel. This is a 4100 target.

If the index can break through 4100 level and continue to rise to 4230. As stated previously the second move up will likely face a large amount of resistance as it is fighting the general trend and against a fairly strong resistance point.

GO Markets
July 21, 2022
Central Banks
Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes from the July meeting

The Australian dollar has begun the week relatively strongly after gaining some momentum from RBA's most recent meeting. The board pushed across quite a hawkish sentiment sparking the rise in the AUD. They found that the current slowing growth across the market and global sphere created that was “becoming skewed to the downside.” The board expressed their concern about the economic activity in China, particularly with the threat of Covid 19.

With lockdowns and a strict covid policy, the threat remains a key factor in the speed of growth on the mainland. Whilst overall business activity improved through May and likely June as well, recent lockdowns have the potential to pull back these gains. The low unemployment signalled Australia’s robustness and strength with record high participation rates in the economy.

Violent weather events like the floods in NSW and the Russian and Ukraine crisis also further added strain on the supply driving up prices and increasing the price of goods. Non-labour inputs also rose in price contributing further to inflation. The members did note the prices for base metals had begun to ease as recession fears had grown.

In addition, declining house prices and clearance rates as a sign that the speed of inflation is potentially slowing, however, they still expect inflation to continue rising for the remainder of 2022. Ultimately the members of the board agreed to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points instead of the alternative of 25 points. With particular emphasis on the strong labour market, the need to bring inflation under control trumped the need for stronger growth.

In response to the release of the minutes, the AUDUSD saw a little rise higher. After sitting near its 52-week lows at $0.6681 in recent weeks, the minutes provided a much-needed push. The price of the AUDUSD currently sits at $0.6845 which is its prior support level and has now become a level of resistance.

If the AUDUSD can push through this level the next resistance point is at $0.6967. As the market is still dealing with unprecedented global inflationary figures, it remains risky to go against the USD, however with effective risk management this risk can be mitigated.

GO Markets
July 21, 2022
Forex
Is the AUDUSD ready to reverse?

Recent History The USD has been on a tear in recent months as volatile market conditions have sent the currency rocketing. Inflationary pressures and recession fears have seen investors turn to the USD whilst at the same time taking off risk from the AUD. The AUD's drop has also been further is largely due to a decrease in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Brent Crude, Wheat, and other key resources that rive much of the Australian economy.

In addition, the AUD is seen as a risk currency. This means that the currency performs well when the economy is growing and the market is bullish and conversely suffers during times of volatility and slowed growth. There has been some positive price action to indicate that a reversal in the AUDUSD may be imminent.

Technical Analysis From a long-term perspective, the weekly chart shows that going back since 2015 the AUDUSD has been trading in a relatively stable range between approximately $0.6680 and $0.8126. The one exception to this was the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic which acted as a ‘Black Swan’ type of event towards the pair and the wider market, (A). This caused a mass panic and a subsequent sell off the AUDUSD.

Once the initial panic began to subside the pair recovered and was able to recover back into the range. It is interesting to note that over the last few years the pair has reverted to its 50-week moving average, after aggressive moves in either direction. In recent weeks, a reversal does appear to be emerging.

The candlesticks also support this by showing a red hammer candle followed by a relatively strong green candle indicating potential exhaustion, (B). Looking closely at the daily chart can provide a few more targets in terms of potential price targets. The next most reasonable price target could be the 50-day moving average which is also doubles as the next level of resistance at $0.6970.

If the price is able to break through this point, then it may go further target the 200 Day average of $0.7190. However, it will likely have to soak up a fair amount of selling pressure. Ultimately the strength of this pair will largely depend on how accurately the market is pricing in inflation and a recession.

If the selloff in equities has maxed out, then it may positively effect the direction of the AUDUSD. However, if there is more pain to come then the pair may sell further down.

GO Markets
July 21, 2022
Shares and Indices
ANZ set to acquire Suncorp in mega acquisition

Big 4 bank ANZ is set to takeover Suncorp in a massive buyout. The agreement stipulates that the buyout is only for the banking side of the business with the insurance arm not being apart of the deal. Details of the deal ANZ is set to pay Suncorp 4.9 Billion dollars 1.3 time the current Net Tangible Asset value of Suncorp.

The completion and integrating process is likely to take between 5-7 years. ANZ will also pay a 50-million-dollar licensing fee for the use of Suncorp’s branding for up to 5 years. This licence can be extended for another 2 years with an additional fee of 10 Million dollars per year if needed.

The deal is expected to bring about a net gain of 4.1 Billion dollars which the company intends to return to its shareholders. To fund the acquisition, ANZ will raise 3.5 Billion dollars via a retail a placement, at a price of $18.90 per share. Potentially regulatory hurdle The deal will still have to supervised by the ACCC.

The ACCC will have to be satisfied that the deal does not substantially lessen competition. Some legal experts say the deal will likely still be given the ok, the ACCC will do say begrudgingly. However, it is still an important obstacle that needs to be satisfied.

Impact on Suncorp The deal will allow the company to better focus on their insurance business and simplify the organisation. Their insurance arm includes brands such as APIA, Bingle and AAMI. The premium will also allow for the share price of SUN has saw a nice gap up in price on the morning of the announcement with an almost 6% jump.

Impact on ANZ The merger has the potential to really propel ANZ forward, especially in a tough market for banks with the impending threat of a recession. The acquisition is expected to increase ANZ’s retail and commercial earnings by 10%. ANZ CEO, Shayne Elliott stated that the acquisition “will be a cornerstone investment for ANZ and a vote of confidence… This is a growth Strategy for ANZ, and we will continue to invest in Suncorp Bank.” Finding extra revenue sources especially in such a competitive industry may act as an important point of strength in such a tough current market.

The ANZ share price remains in a halt until Thursday 21 July.

GO Markets
July 18, 2022
Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities
Oil dips to the bottom of its range as recession fears hit the market.

Oil has seen its first real slip up in price since March. The commodity had been running on the back of high inflation and supply issues stemming from the Russian and Ukraine crisis. During the run Oil peaked at $137 a barrel before entering a period of consolidation.

The recent catalyst for the drop was OPEC announcing that 2023 would likely result in lower demand for Oil. In addition, the threat of Chinese lockdowns is once again rearing its ugly head, adding to the woes. Furthermore, there have been discussion in recent days and week with the President of the USA, Joe Biden pushing for an increase in production.

The price has now fallen out of the wedge and is testing the support level. A strong USD Oil historically moves inversely to the USD. This is because oil is priced in US dollars.

Therefore, when the US dollar is strong fewer US dollars are required to buy a barrel of oil. Conversely, when the USD is weak, more USD is required, increasing the price of Oil. Consequently, with the USD being as strong as it is currently, the price of oil had to at some point fall.

Slowing Growth A recession could be a strong driver for a dip in the price of oil as negative growth has reduces the demand for commodities. Growing economies require Oil and other commodities to develop their infrastructure. Therefore, a recession will likely lead to less manufacturing and less infrastructure development due to a reduction in demand.

Technical Analysis The price of Brent is approaching an important area of support. It can be observed that the price of Brent has broken down from its wedge pattern and following back into the longer-term trend. The price is sitting on its short-term support level of $97.

This level is also of extra importance because it also doubles as the 200-day average. It can therefore be expected that there will be a great deal of volume traded near this zone and that to break through it will require a great deal of selling pressure.

GO Markets
July 15, 2022