Academy
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ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

ก้าวนำตลาดด้วยมุมมองเชิงลึกจากผู้เชี่ยวชาญ ข่าวสาร และการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค เพื่อเป็นแนวทางในการตัดสินใจซื้อขายของคุณ.

Geopolitical events
Latest US Jobs Report

The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for September. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S.

Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today versus the forecast of 185,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 3.7% in September better than the forecast of 3.8%.

Worth pointing out that the latest unemployment rate is the lowest level for 49 years. The number of unemployed people decreased by 270,000 to 6 million. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated.

The reaction Initially we saw some weakness in the US dollar as the latest figures were released, however, since then the Dollar has recovered some losses. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated. USD/JPY Hourly Chart GBP/USD Hourly Chart EUR/USD Hourly Chart This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Bloomberg, Go Markets MT4

Klavs Valters
April 14, 2021
Shares and Indices
Landing soon - Airbnb IPO

Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory.

And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Uber, Facebook, and Alibaba have all gone public, but Airbnb has not. But that is about to change.

The home-rental company is set to go public on 10th December, in one of the most anticipated IPO's of the year. What is an Initial Public Offering (IPO)? IPO is a type of public offering in which shares of a company are sold to investors.

The company usually hires investment banks to market and understand the demand, set the IPO price and date, etc. It must meet requirements by exchanges and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before holding an initial public offering (IPO). About Airbnb Airbnb, Inc. is an American accommodation rental online marketplace company founded in 2008 by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joe Gebbia.

It allows people to rent out their properties or spare rooms and is available in 191+ countries. Airbnb has more than 7m million listings on its platform, run by 4 million hosts worldwide. Its headquarters are located in San Francisco, California, United States, and it also has international offices around the world.

The company employs over 6,300 people. Expectations The global pandemic has had a significant impact on the company’s finances. It brought in $2.5 billion in revenue in the first nine months of the year - down from $3.7 billion a year earlier.

Companies net loss more than doubled during that period to $697 million. Year on year bookings down 72% in April and roughly 20% through June to September. In a government filing in the United States, the home-sharing company said it expects to price its shares between $56-$60 each, up from a range of $44-$50 earlier this month.

The new price range would increase the amount company is expected to raise to as much as $3.1 billion and increase its valuation to $42 billion from $35 billion at the top of the previous range. Airbnb does not intend to pay a dividend in the foreseeable future. Airbnb shares will start trading on the US stock market from 2.30 pm (UK time) on 10th December with the symbol ABNB.

Klavs Valters
April 14, 2021
Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities
Largest Crude Oil Reserves in the World

Venezuela At number one, we have a country which has been in turmoil in the last few months – Venezuela. Economic and social crisis have hit the South American nation and things are not looking to get better any time soon. However, it does top the list as the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world at 300 billion barrels.

Worth pointing out that it was the 15 th largest crude oil exporter at $26,4 billion barrels making it up 2.3% of the world total. Capital: Caracas Official language: Spanish Population: 31,568,179 Gross Domestic Product: $92 billion Currency: Petro (PTR), Bolivar Soberano (VES) Saudi Arabia The next on the list is Saudi Arabia, which was actually the top crude oil exporter in the world last year with $182 billion worth of oil exports which was around 15,9% of the total crude oil exports in the world. The middle eastern country is highly reliant on its oil exports and its proven oil reserves amount to around 266 billion barrels.

Capital: Riyadh Official language: Arabic Population: 33,000,000 Gross Domestic Product: $759 billion Currency: Saudi Riyal (SAR) Canada At number three we have the North American nation of Canada with crude oil reserves of around 169 billion barrels with 95% of these reserves are in the oil sands deposits in the western province of Alberta. Canada was the 4th largest crude oil exporter last year with $68,9 billion worth of exports, making it up 5.8% of the total. Capital: Ottawa Official language: English and French Population: 37,067,011 Gross Domestic Product: $1,9 trillion Currency: Canadian Dollar (CAD) Iran The Islamic Republic of Iran is at number four with 158 billion worth of proven oil reserves.

Iran was the 8 th largest crude oil exporter in the world with $45,7 billion, which was around 4% of the world total. Capital: Tehran Official language: Persian Population: 81,672,300 Gross Domestic Product: $413 billion Currency: Iranian Rial (IRR) Iraq The last one on our list of countries with the largest crude oil exporters is Iraq with 142 billion barrels. Iraq was the 3 rd biggest crude oil exporter in 2018 with $91 billion worth of exports which made up 7.9% of the total.

Iraq was one of the founding member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela when it was established back in 1960. Iraq’s economy is highly depended on oil with oil production accounting for 2/3 of the country’s GDP. Capital: Baghdad Official language: Arabic and Kurdish Population: 37,202,671 Gross Domestic Product: $233 billion Currency: Iraqi dinar (IQD) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Traders can access hundreds of CFD instruments including Forex, Shares, Indices and Oil Commodities. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: IMF, CIA, MT5 ( MetaTrader 5 download available here. )

Klavs Valters
April 14, 2021
Trading strategies
Psychology
Is your trading plan specific enough to allow meaningful and decisive ACTION?

A written trading plan, usually comprising of several guiding action statements, serves the following two invaluable purposes: Facilitates consistency in trading action e.g. in the entry and exit of trades, allowing the trader AND Measures the strategy used specified within each statement to make an evidence-based judgement on how well these are serving you and test and amend these statements so you can develop an individual trading plan that may work better for you. Let’s move past the fact that many traders choose not to have a plan at all, an approach that goes against what is one of the key components of giving yourself the chance to become a successful trader, to those who have a plan in place already. This article is targeted a those who have made the logical choice to have some sort of written plan in place.

Great though having a plan is, many traders still have issues with the two purposes outlined above. They still fail to some degree to develop the consistency described and are not really able to measure effectively. A common problem, if we look closely at some of the plan statements used, is that such statement may not be specific enough, have some ambiguity, that means that those purposes may be difficult to achieve.

Let’s provide and work through an example for clarity. Consider the following statement… “I will tighten my stop/trailing stop prior to significant, imminent economic data releases” Firstly, on the positive side again, this does demonstrate an awareness of potential risk and a desire to have something within your plan to manage this risk. However, in terms of being a measurable statement that you can make a judgement as to how well this approach is serving you, there are the following issues: What does ‘tightening’ mean in practical terms in relation to current price point of the pair you are trading?

How close to a data release is ‘imminent’? What constitutes a significant data release (amongst the many that are released daily)? So, to take the previous example consider the following as an alternative: “Prior to imminent economic data releases, I will tighten of a trail stop loss for any open trades, 15 minutes prior to the release and to within 10 Pips of the current price.

This will be actioned for the following data points: Interest rate, CPI, industrial production and jobs data from the country of either currency pair (or Germany, France of across the Eurozone if one of the currency pair is the EURO). US and Chinese PMI manufacturing data, GDP, industrial jobs and interest rate decisions as these may impact all currency majors." So, with THIS amended plan statement the following elements could be measured (if journaled appropriately of course): What would the difference be in your trading outcomes if: No tightening had been actioned. If a different proximity to current price is used e.g. 15 rather than 10 Pips.

If other data releases are added/removed. With this level of measurement, possible with the revised statement, one would now be able to make any changes, backed up with evidence, to your trading plan. Alternatively, of course, you could make the choice to do nothing, retain statements such as the original, and not have the ability to create the richness of evidence to make considered amendments to your plan.

Logically ask yourself the question, "which choice is more likely to serve my trading going forward?"

Mike Smith
April 14, 2021
Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities
Gold to Silver Ratio: Is it useful to commodity CFD traders?

When digging deeper into issues relating to trading precious metals you may come across the idea of using gold to silver ratios as part of decision-making. This brief article explores what this means both in terms of definition and potential implications for traders. What is the Gold-Silver Ratio?

The direction and degree of movement in the two key precious metals occurs “in synch” i.e. when one moves so does the other similarly. However, the exact rate of this movement over a period may differ, and it is this that attracts the attention of some precious metal investors. The gold-silver ratio is simply the amount of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold.

If the spot price of gold is $1403 with silver at $15.3, the approximate ratio is 92:1. When considering this information, the respective prices of each are considered irrelevant; it is this ratio that attracts some attention for the most avid of precious metals investors. Rather, it is a potential indicator as to which precious metal is more likely to yield a greater return if taking a “long” position (or vice versa).

Historically throughout the 20th Century, this ratio has been reported at an average of 47:1, so theoretically the current ratio is low for silver value than traditionally has been the case. There does not appear to be a strict defined range what is normal and what is high or low, but some consensus internationally suggests that between 40-70 could be a normal range, and outside of this can be considered either high or low, and so may correct according to a movement back within the ‘normal’ range. Theoretically, the implications of this are when making a choice to trade either gold or silver, if this ratio is high then it would suggest that silver CFDs may have more positive % move potential, and if low, then gold may be more worthy of your choice.

It is also noteworthy that generally, when one explores research on this topic, that it is for possible use by those taking longer term positions (i.e. using daily/weekly charts for decision making) rather than short-term price fluctuations you may see on an intraday chart. The reality in your trading As previously stated, this seems to be something of interest to the major “gold bugs”, and there is widespread variance in thinking on this topic. The inference by some is that fluctuations in the ratio may help in the choice as to whether long term gold or silver.

So, as with much that is “out there” this may in part inform trading decision making at any level, the onus as to whether this has relevance in your practical trading of course rests with you. Our aim of this article was to put the concept out there so you can do your own research and make the choice as to relevance for you and as importantly how you may integrate it with other factors you use in your entry and exit decisions. We often discuss commodity CFDs as part of the ‘Market Watch’ section of the FREE weekly GO Markets Inner Circle webinars.

If you are interested in joining us as we look at the market and of course provide on-going education go to https://www.gomarkets.com/au/inner-circle and join us.

Mike Smith
April 14, 2021
Trading strategies
Psychology
Getting started with your trading journal – Free Download

Those of you who have attended any of our LIVE Inner Circle education sessions, or participated in our courses, will know that a regular theme covered is the importance and benefits of measuring your trading. One of the key tools we often discuss is the use of a trading journal. For th ose of you less familiar with this as a concept, a trading journal is a method through which you record your decisions and actions on all trades you enter for a specific period (often a month at least).

This allows you not only to see the dollar performance of individual trades but more importantly to make judgements on: a. How well (or otherwise) you are following your trading plan; b. How well (or otherwise) your plan as a whole, and its specific components are serving your trading results.

Subsequently, you are then able to amend as necessary either your behaviour, your plan components, or indeed both with “hard” evidence. Many would suggest that this is a crucial system in any trader’s development. One of the common questions we are asked relates to the set up and contents of such a journal.

Quite simply, your aim should be to measure all aspects of the trade set up, entry and ultimately exit decisions. Such information could be recorded on a spreadsheet, a word document or even in a notepad for example. To help you kickstart your journaling process, the download attached to this article gives an example of the detailed information you could choose to collect.

It is easily adaptable to any trading vehicle should you be trading Forex, index CFDs or Share CFDs. Simply click below for access to your pdf download. trading journal blueprint If you would like to know more about how we can help your trading learning journey, why not join our Facebook “Inner Circle” group for weekly educational content, or there is also our “Next Steps: course (see image link on the right) where you can access a full video course including a specific session on journaling and an example template to download. One last thing…find the concept of “Blueprints” useful?

If so drop an email to [email protected] and let us know and we can develop some more. Trade Safe You can find additional forex education resources here. For information on other trading tools, see our Autochartist, Genesis for MetaTrader, VPS for MetaTrader and a-Quant information pages.

Mike Smith
April 14, 2021