ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

The Inside Bar breakout is a price action setup that indicates a short-term consolidation within the broader context of an existing trend — and a potential confirmation that the trend may be continuing.It is a candle that forms entirely within the outer points of wicks that formed from the previous candle. This previous candle, often referred to as the mother bar, is critical in the formation of this price pattern.This setup indicates a pause in market momentum (the market “catching its breath”) during the course of a trend before choosing whether to continue its move in that direction.When price compresses into an inside bar, buyers and sellers are in temporary balance. The eventual breakout from this pause is where the potential opportunity lies for traders, when aligned with the prevailing trend.As with all chart patterns, the setup is not complete until a breakout and confirmation candle are seen in the chosen direction.

Bearish Inside Bar Breakout

A bearish breakout occurs when the price breaks below the low of the mother bar following the formation of an inside bar. This shows that sellers have regained or confirmed control after a period of consolidation.

• A: Mother bar → a candle within a trend that sets the boundaries of the setup based on the high and low of its range
• B: Inside bar → a smaller candle that is contained entirely within the mother bar, showing indecision or temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
• C: Breakout and confirmation → price breaks below the low of the mother bar, confirmed by a bearish candle close, showing sellers taking control.

On occasion, you may see a double inside bar where two bars trade within the range of the mother bar before finally breaking out.Although some people may see this as not a pure inside bar, the market psychology behind the move has not changed.You can see a real chart example of this on the 4-hourly Nasdaq futures (NDX100) CFD chart, where there was a one-candle pause before continuation of the prevailing downtrend following a reversal to the downside.

Bullish Inside Bar Breakout

A bullish breakout occurs when the price breaks above the high of the mother bar following an inside bar. This demonstrates that buyers have reasserted control after the pause.

• A: Mother bar → an initial large candle showing a defined range.
• B: Inside bar → a small consolidation candle within the mother bar, often reflecting hesitation or equilibrium.
• C: Breakout and confirmation → a bullish candle closes above the high of the mother bar, showing buyers are ready to push higher.

This reflects the market psychology where selling pressure was absorbed during the consolidation for one candle before renewed buying momentum.You can see a real chart example of this on the 30-minute EURJPY, where a strong move to the upside on the mother bar was temporarily halted, followed by the confirmation bar resulting in a 50 pip move upwards.

Stop Placement and Exits

Risk management is central to the inside bar strategy:

• For bearish setups, stops are often placed above the high of the mother bar.
• For bullish setups, stops are typically placed below the low of the mother bar.

Profit management exit strategies vary depending on the risk profile of the trader and should be articulated in a trading plan. These can include:

• Setting a fixed risk-to-reward level (e.g., 2:1).
• Using trailing stops as price moves continue to move in your desired direction, locking in profits during the life of the trade.
• From a profit target perspective, approaches that target logical chart levels, such as recent swing highs/lows or nearby support/resistance zones, can be considered.

Final Thoughts

The Inside Bar breakout is a flexible strategy that can be seen across different markets and timeframes.Its strength lies in recognising that markets often pause and compress before a potential move in the same direction as the prevailing trend.Its popularity is based on the fact that it can provide both an opportunity for entry when an initial trend move has been missed or an indication that accumulation into an existing position could be worth looking at.By identifying the presence and the range of mother bar, the inside bar, and exercising patience for a decisive breakout, traders aim to capitalise on this temporary contraction and expansion in volatility.As always, practising this setup and making notes on what happens next is crucial to determining your specific approach and developing testable, unambiguous criteria for action.

Last year was the year of the split. Tech titans like Nvidia, Broadcom, and MicroStrategy all executed 10-for-1 stock splits that sent retail investors (rightly or wrongly) into a buying frenzy. But despite multiple major stocks climbing to record-high levels this year — Netflix $1,200, Meta $760, and AutoZone $4,200 — we have yet to see any significant split action in 2025.[caption id="attachment_713144" align="aligncenter" width="668"]

Top stock splits 2024[/caption]

Why Companies Split Their Stock

A stock split is financial engineering. It makes individual shares more affordable without changing the company's underlying value.When a company executes a 4-for-1 split, shareholders receive four shares for every one they previously owned, while the stock price drops to one-quarter of its pre-split level.It doesn’t change the overall market capitalisation of the company or anything from a foundational value perspective.However, it can have some psychological benefits and add flexibility for the company, which can often be enough for markets to rally around it.

Companies typically split their stock for a few key reasons:

Accessibility: High stock prices can deter smaller investors who prefer to buy full shares rather than fractions. A $1,000 stock becomes more psychologically appealing at $100 after a 10-for-1 split.Liquidity: For the same psychological reasons, lower prices often increase trading volume, and the higher liquidity makes the stock even more appealing for further retail investments and lower-risk traders.Employee compensation: Splits give greater flexibility when granting employees shares through stock option programs.Market inclusion: Some indices, particularly the Dow Jones, favour companies with more moderate share prices.

Stock Splits So Far in 2025

Although at a far more measured pace than we saw in 2024, this year has seen some split activity, especially from outside the tech sector.Four prominent non-tech companies have completed forward splits so far in 2025:

• Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE): Announced a 10-for-1 split
• O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): Completed a 15-for-1 split
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR): Executed a 4-for-1 split in June
• Fastenal (FAST): Implemented a 2-for-1 split

However, the tech sector, which dominated split headlines in 2024, has been notably quiet this year.

Next Top Stock Split Candidates

1. Netflix (NFLX) - $1,200+ Per Share

Netflix is the most likely candidate for a 2025 stock split. The company's share price pushed through the $1,200 barrier for the first time following the release of positive financial results for H1 2025.Netflix has conducted two stock splits in the past: a 2-for-1 stock split in 2004, and a 7-for-1 stock split in 2015 when its price hit $650 per share — almost half of what it is currently.Netflix reported 18.9 million new subscribers during Q4 2024 (significantly more than the 8.2 million Wall Street forecast), and its advertising revenue is also expected to double by the end of 2025.If its momentum continues, Netflix executing a split before the end of the year is highly likely.

2. Meta Platforms (META) - $760+ Per Share

Meta is the only member of the Magnificent Seven stocks to never carry out a split. META currency trades at over $760 — a threshold where many companies regularly consider splitting.Meta's winning streak over the past year drove its shares to an all-time high of $790 in August, and it is the top performer in 2025 among the Magnificent Seven.Meta posted earnings beats of $47.5 billion in revenue in July, well above the $44.83 billion expectation, with earnings per share hitting $7.14 compared to the expected $5.89.[caption id="attachment_713146" align="aligncenter" width="946"]

YTD relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks[/caption]There is high speculation that the company could announce its first-ever split before the end of 2025. Its heavy AI spending, including raising 2025 AI expenditures to $66-72 billion, shows Meta’s confidence in its trajectory and would justify a stock split within the next few months.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) - $510 + Per Share

Microsoft currently trades around $510 per share. Its all-time high of $555.45 per share came in July 2025, driven by AI growth and cloud dominance.Microsoft has executed nine stock splits since going public in 1986, with the most recent occurring in 2003, when shares traded around $48.The 22-year gap since the last split is the longest drought in the company's history, with all previous splits occurring below $200 per share.[caption id="attachment_713145" align="aligncenter" width="710"]

History of Microsoft stock splits[/caption]Microsoft is one of only two stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average trading above $500, alongside Goldman Sachs.The Dow's price-weighted structure means higher-priced stocks have disproportionate influence on the index, creating pressure from S&P Dow Jones Indices to maintain balance.There is also a competitive precedent for Microsoft to split. Its long-time rival, Apple, executed a split in 2020 when its stock was in the $450 range. And other tech giants, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have also recently split their stocks, setting a strong precedent for Microsoft to follow.

4. Costco Wholesale (COST) - $960+ Per Share

Costco's consistent growth and near $1000 per share price make it a likely split candidate in the next 6-12 months. The company has split its stock multiple times in the past, but its last split was over 25 years ago in 2000. The stock is up 2,780% since then.Costco’s reported Membership fee revenue increased 10% to $5.3 billion from June 2024 to May 2025, and its overall revenue of $268.78 billion is up 5.94% during the same period.[caption id="attachment_713147" align="aligncenter" width="742"]

Costco’s Operating Income 2015-2024[/caption]Despite the positive numbers, Costco’s management has remained noncommittal when asked about split plans, making timing uncertain despite the strong financial case.

5. AutoZone (AZO) - $4,230+ Per Share

AutoZone's current stock price ironically exceeds the cost of many used cars for which it sells parts.Despite its massive per-share price, AutoZone has avoided splitting since 1994. The company's share buyback programs have nearly halved the share count in the past ten years, pushing the price higher. This massive share price alone puts it firmly on the upcoming split candidate list. However, its history shows that they often delay and defy the split norm.[caption id="attachment_713148" align="aligncenter" width="712"]

Top stock split candidates 2025-2026[/caption]

Stock Splits Are a Result, Not a Cause

Stock splits generate excitement, but they don’t change a business's fundamental value or the total value of the shares owned by shareholders.Although research suggests split stocks often outperform broader markets in the 12 months following the announcement, this is generally a correlation, not a causation.It is the strong business fundamentals that justified the split in the first place that usually lead to market outperformance, rather than the split itself.Anyone considering these stocks should focus on business fundamentals rather than split speculation.That said, stock splits can generate hype and serve as catalysts for broader market attention. If the marketing strategy around the split is done well, it can help the company generate more interest from retail investors than otherwise anticipated.

Looking Ahead

2025 has seen fewer tech company stock splits than 2024, setting the stage for major announcements in the coming months. Companies like Netflix and Meta face increasing pressure to make their shares more accessible as prices reach new highs.The next wave of stock splits will likely come from these established leaders whose strong business performance has driven their share prices to split-warranting levels.Whether these companies ultimately decide to split their stocks remains to be seen, but the fundamental case for each remains strong regardless of corporate actions.

What Is a Bollinger Band Reversal?

The Bollinger Band reversal is a mean-reversion strategy that looks for the price to temporarily overextend beyond its typical range before snapping back inside.It consists of three lines:

1. An upper band
2. A lower band
3. A 20-period simple moving average (SMA) in the middle.

The Upper band and Lower band are set at a default level two standard deviations from the SMA.When the price closes outside one of the bands, it often signals significant price momentum. This level of momentum is often followed by "move exhaustion” and subsequently pulls back to a more usual state. If the next move returns price inside the bands, this may offer a possible reversal opportunity. This setup can happen on any timeframe on any asset.As always with any chart pattern, the pattern can only be thought of as complete when there is a confirmation candle. Confluence factors such as where the candle sits in relation to the range (e.g., in the top half for a bullish trade) and increased volume are often considered part of a complete trading plan in the Bollinger Band reversal setup.

Bearish Bollinger Band Reversal

A bearish reversal occurs when the price moves sharply above the upper band, showing extreme buying pressure, but then closes back inside the band. This can suggest the price may have become overextended, and sellers are attempting to regain control.

• A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong upward momentum pushing price above the upper Bollinger Band.
• B: Over-extension → a candle closes outside the band, showing unsustainable momentum.
• C: Re-entry with confirmation → a subsequent bearish candle closes back inside the band, confirming the reversal.

The EURJPY 30-minute chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Bullish Bollinger Band Reversal

A bullish reversal can be seen on a chart when the price falls below the lower band, showing extreme selling pressure, but then closes back inside the lower band. This suggests that the downward trend in price is becoming exhausted, and buyers are stepping in.

• A: Prior decline (bear candles) → strong downward momentum pushing price below the lower Bollinger Band.
• B: Over-extension → a candle closes outside the band, showing unsustainable downside pressure.
• C: Re-entry with confirmation → a subsequent bullish candle closes back inside the band, validating the reversal.

The Gold Futures CFD 1-hourly chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Stop Placement and Exits

Initial risk management stops are generally placed just beyond the candle that closed outside the band:

• In bearish setups: the stop goes above the high of the candle that closed outside the upper band.
• In bullish setups: the stop goes below the low of the candle that closed outside the lower band.

Exit strategies often include:

• Using the 20-period SMA (the “mean” in the mean reversion) as a potential profit target or signal to trail the initial stop level.
• Using a set risk-to-reward ratio, such as 2:1.

Final Thoughts

The Bollinger Band reversal is a popular mean reversion strategy that takes advantage of price extremes. Traders who are developing a formal trading plan with this setup wait for a close outside the bands, a re-entry of price inside the bands (in the opposite direction), and a confirmation candle.In essence, traders are attempting to capitalise on the pullback.It is important to note that price can “walk the bands” for an extended time, so risk management with stop placements should be part of any plan using this setup.Practicing across different market conditions, asset classes, and timeframes will help identify where Bollinger Band reversals are most effective and how best to integrate them into your trading toolbox.

The outside bar is a powerful price action pattern that often signals a potential reversal. Unlike single-wick setups such as a pinbar strategy, the outside bar forms when a candle’s high and low both exceed those of the prior candle, effectively “engulfing” it completely.This wide-ranging bar represents a change in buying or selling pressure and illustrates the decisive battle, with one side clearly emerging stronger by the close. For traders looking at reversal setups, this pattern may provide a clear structural clue that market sentiment has shifted significantly.

Bearish Outside Bar

A bearish outside bar occurs at the end of a bullish upswing in price and sellers move in to overwhelm any buyer volume that is left in the market. The outside bar pushes above the prior candle’s high but then collapses through its low, closing below the low of the previous candle.This sudden failure at higher prices can often signal price move exhaustion of the uptrend and may be the start of a bearish reversal.

• A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong upward movement into resistance.
• B: Outside bar (bearish close) → candle exceeds both high and low of previous candle, closing down.
• C: Confirmation candle (bearish close) → follow-through selling that validates the reversal.

The NZDUSD 1-hourly chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Bullish Outside Bar

A bullish outside bar appears after a decline when buyers step in aggressively. The candle drives below the prior low but then rallies strongly, closing higher and engulfing the prior candle.This shift signals that selling pressure has been absorbed, and buyers are likely taking control.

• A: Prior decline (bear candles) → downside momentum into support.
• B: Outside bar (bullish close) → candle exceeds both high and low of previous candle, closing up.
• C: Confirmation candle (bullish close) → follow-through buying that confirms the reversal.

The AUDJPY daily chart below shows two examples of this setup in action:

Stop Placement and Exits

A logical stop placement that indicates your trading idea may not have gone as you had hoped it might, and may be a placement beyond the extreme of the outside bar. Therefore:

• In bearish setups, a stop is placed above the high of the outside bar.
• In bullish setups, a stop is placed below the low of the outside bar.

Common additional exit approaches may include:

• Targeting the next key support/resistance zone,
• Using a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1),
• Or trailing stops behind subsequent highs/lows as the price moves in your desired direction to capture extended moves whilst locking in profit,

Final Thoughts

The outside bar is a clear visual signal that suggests a change in the balance of buyers versus sellers, where one side overwhelms the other. It may often offer a high probability of follow-through when it appears at significant levels of support or resistance.Like all setups, outside bars are fallible. For example, choppy markets can generate multiple false signals, so combining the pattern with context trend alignment, confirmation candles, and other confluence factors such as increased volume may help improve signal reliability.As always, it is worth reinforcing that an entry set alone will rarely be successful unless you have robust and unambiguous rules around the primary price action of an outside bar.Testing what these factors are and which confluence factors may work for you across different markets and timeframes is critical in creating a complete trading strategy. Only then should traders add the outside bar to their price action toolbox.

Rather than looking for a reversal, fractal breakouts use the last fractal high (in an uptrend) or last fractal low (in a downtrend) as confirmation of a trend after a retracement in priceIt is a continuation strategy designed to capture momentum once the price has confirmed direction. When price breaks beyond the most recent fractal, it signals that the prevailing trend has the strength to continue.

Bullish Fractal Breakout

A bullish fractal breakout occurs when price pushes above the last swing high (marked by a fractal). This indicates buyers have overcome the previous barrier, and the uptrend may continue after a small pullback in price.Confirmation is strengthened when the breakout candle also closes above both the 14 EMA and the 200 EMA, showing alignment of short-term momentum with long-term trend direction.

A: Prior uptrend (bull candles) → sustained buying pressure pushing toward resistance.B: Fractal high → the last swing high marked by a fractal, acting as a breakout trigger.C: Breakout candle → strong bullish candle closing ABOVE the fractal high (and ideally above both 14 EMA and 200 EMA).You can see a real chart example of this on the 1-hourly Gold (XAUUSD) CFD chart:[caption id="attachment_713057" align="aligncenter" width="722"]

Red squares show the last fractal of note. “E” shows where the entry points could be placed[/caption]

Bearish Fractal Breakout

A bearish fractal breakout occurs when price pushes below the last swing low (marked by a fractal). This shows that sellers have reconfirmed control after a small retracement, and the downtrend is likely to continue.As with the bullish version, the signal is considered stronger if the breakout candle also closes below both the 14 EMA and the 200 EMA.

A: Prior downtrend (bear candles) → sustained selling pressure pushing toward support.B: Fractal low → the last swing low marked by a fractal, acting as a breakout trigger.C: Breakout candle → strong bearish candle closing BELOW the fractal low (and ideally below both 14 EMA and 200 EMA).You can see a real-world example of this on the 1-hourly EURUSD chart: [caption id="attachment_713059" align="aligncenter" width="793"]

Red squares show the last fractal of note. “E” shows where the entry points could be place[/caption]

Stop Placement and Exits for Fractal Breakouts

Stops are logically placed on the opposite side of the breakout fractal:

• For bullish breakouts: The stop goes below the breakout candle or below the prior swing low.
• For bearish breakouts: The stop goes above the breakout candle or above the prior swing high.

Exits can be managed by:

• Targeting the next logical resistance (bullish) or support (bearish) level
• Using a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 2 or 3:1)
• Trailing stops along a moving average (e.g., the 14 EMA).
• Variation: Some suggest a close beneath this (rather than just a touch) may be worth exploring as a variation.

The combination of fractals with moving averages can assist in avoiding weaker signals, but a failure to follow through on this concept is at the basis of exit approaches.

Final Thoughts

The fractal breakout setup is a clean and structured way to trade with the trend. It provides confirmation that buying pressure still exists, even after a recent pullback in price. By waiting for price to confirm beyond the last fractal point, rather than the common “buy on the dip,” you can avoid premature entries and align with the story that price action is telling you.Adding moving average filters, such as the 14 EMA for momentum and the 200 EMA for long-term bias, can significantly improve reliability, though different combinations may suit different market types and timeframes.Like all strategies, it will not always go in your favour, and even if it does, you should endeavour to reduce the amount of “give-back” of potential profit. Breakout ideas can fail, especially in choppy conditions. Risk management and unambiguous pre-defined exit criteria are essential — the only real failure is when you fail to have these in place or fail to execute your risk management.

The pinbar reversal is one of the most-used price action signals in trading. It reflects a battle between buyers and sellers where one side attempts to push the market further in their favour, but is met with an observable and often strong rejection. The resulting full pinbar candle leaves a long “wick” showing where price was rejected, and usually has a small body showing where it finally closed.It suggests that momentum has shifted — traders tried to push through support or resistance but were overwhelmed by opposing pressure. This makes the pinbar a valuable signal when it forms at key levels.

Bearish Pinbar Reversal

A bearish pinbar forms after price has been moving upwards to a resistance level, but despite a test during the life of a candle, ultimately fails to hold. The long upper wick shows rejection of higher prices, suggesting sellers could be taking control:

A: Prior advance (bull candles) → strong push into a resistance zone.B: Pinbar (long upper wick) → rejection of higher prices as sellers absorb demand.C: Confirmation candle (bearish close) → follow-through selling that validates the reversal and closes BELOW the pinbar candle body.You can see a real-world example of this on the BTCUSD - 1 hourly chart:[caption id="attachment_712324" align="aligncenter" width="582"]

Entry point at ''E'' as confirmation candle close below pinbar body is needed.[/caption]

Bullish Pinbar Reversal

A bullish pinbar forms after the price has been moving downwards into support, but fails to hold below that level. The long lower wick shows rejection of lower prices, suggesting an absence of further selling pressure, with buyers expecting a bounce of the rejected support level.

A: Prior decline (bear candles) → strong push down into a support zone.B: Pinbar (long lower wick) → rejection of lower prices as buyers absorb selling.C: Confirmation candle (bullish close) → follow-through buying that confirms the reversal and closes ABOVE the pinbar candle body.You can see a real-world example of this on the USDJPY - 30-minute chart:[caption id="attachment_712327" align="aligncenter" width="614"]

Strong pinbar reversal with confirmation candle immediate after pinbar. Entry at E at candle close.[/caption]

Stop Placement and Exits for Pinbar Set-ups

Risk management is critical when trading pinbar setups. A common approach is to place the stop-loss beyond the pinbar wick (above the upper wick in a bearish pinbar, or below the lower wick in a bullish pinbar).This ensures if the market pushes past the level of rejection, the original trading idea is no longer valid, and an exit would likely be wise. For other general exits, traders will often:

• Target the next logical support or resistance zone,
• Use a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1),
• Or trail stops behind subsequent swing highs/lows to capture larger moves.

As with all trading strategies, the key is consistency in action. Exits should be planned before entering the trade, not improvised on emotional whims during the life of the trade.

Final Thoughts

The pinbar reversal setup captures shifts in market sentiment in a clear, visual way. Its popularity amongst traders is a reflection of its successes and its relative simplicity, even for less experienced traders. By combining context (support/resistance zones), structure (A/B/C sequence), and disciplined risk management, traders can use pinbars as part of a robust price action strategy.However, it is worth noting that not every pinbar is significant. The most reliable signals occur at meaningful levels, with confirmation from the next candle. Invest some of your time practicing, seeing how many you can spot on various historical charts (and of course, make notes on what happened next) to build confidence in recognition before trading them live.