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根据最新公布的澳大利亚统计局（ABS）数据，截至2024年1月，消费者价格指数（CPI）在过去 12 个月内上涨了 3.4%。低于市场普遍预期的3.6%。
今年年初，潜在的价格压力继续缓解。澳大利亚统计局周三表示，排除水果、燃料和假日旅行等波动性项目，通胀率从4.2% 降至4.1%。
虽然这些数字略低于市场对通胀率升至3.6%的预期，但市场预期这不太可能改变货币政策的前景。根据ASX30日利率隐含曲线显示，目前利率仍将在未来几个月内维持，而澳大利亚央行 11 月 利率会议之后可能会有较为明确的降息25基点。
房地产市场压力自 2022 年中期以来，新房建设成本（CPI 篮子中最大的项目）的通货紧缩已陷入停滞，年通胀率接近 5%。本次1月份租金上涨0.7%，过去12个月租金上涨7.4%，原因是移民激增带来的强劲需求和供应不足造成出租房产严重短缺。
按照细分项来看，房产板块持续的价格压力抵消了牛肉和海鲜等食品主食价格的直接下跌，使得1 月份总体通胀率稳定在3.4%。尽管澳大利亚央行在抑制通胀方面取得了一些进展，但劳动密集型服务业和房地产市场的价格压力仍然很高。这也是为何降息不会过早到来的市场预期原因。澳股、澳元相关表现CPI数据并未反弹，属于超预期下行，这一消息利空澳元。澳美货币对在消息后6小时下跌近0.5%。
股市方面，CPI消息有利于股市稳定，但是基于降息预期不强烈，澳股截至消息当日收盘表现平平。澳股基本收平，微跌0.03%。
免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部
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