As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve. 

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Quick facts:

• US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
• JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
• Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
• President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
• Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.

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United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings

What to watch:

The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.

Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.

Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.‍

Key releases and events:

• Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
• Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
• Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
• Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
• Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
• Throughout the week: Fed member speeches

How markets may respond:

S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.

USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.

With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.

Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.

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UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength

What to watch:

In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.

In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.

Key releases and events:

Eurozone

• Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)

UK

• Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
• Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.

DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.

FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.

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US and Europe calendar summary (AEDT)

• Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
• Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
• Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
• Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue

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Bottom line

• If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
• If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
• If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
• For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.

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2026年的CES国际消费电子展在拉斯维加斯刚刚落下帷幕，因为近年来市场高度关注AI市场的发展和进步，CES展也被称为科技界的“春晚”，今年也不例外，CES上爆出了大量新锐AI产品，也让AI发展的风向和科技产业投资趋势进一步具象化。

总结下来今年CES的核心趋势总结下来就是从云端算力向物理AI的重大转型，将AI从对话框延伸到电子产品的每个角落。

长久以来自GPT开始AI大模型的大部分应用集中在线上沟通的实时交互上，各大科技企业百花齐放用天量资金加码AI大模型的应用，这也让芯片供应商英伟达乘着本轮趋势登顶全球市值第一的宝座。今年英伟达老总“皮衣黄”再度现身CES只不过本轮他带来的新一代架构为今年的美股科技投资风向带来了一个新的趋势“物理AI”。

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英伟达

英伟达在本轮CES展览上公布了其Vera Rubin模型，并表示将提前量产，会将AI推理的物理成本压低90%，意味着同级别情况下AI的算力再度以两位数的速率提振，而黄仁勋本次通过COSMOS开放模型平台具体展示AI对物理世界的规则的理解将会赋能机器人，汽车等多个电子产品领域，将AI从对话框搬到现实物理世界中来。

1.    结构化底座：Cosmos物理模拟平台与世界模型

·      通过精确的物理规律的嵌入，引入物理约束层理念，在生成与测试计算重力，动量，和摩擦系数等模拟现实世界。

·      训练数据包含超过10一小时真实物理世界视频以及高保真模拟合成数据，推理速度较上一代攀升12被，允许机器人每秒进行上千次的虚拟模拟和路径推演

·      真正开始挖掘了仿佛电影终结者和机械公敌里的机器人通过人工智能对现实世界产生重要交互的发展需求。

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2.    算力构架层面RubinGPU的屋里计算特性

HBM4 的带宽飞跃： Rubin GPU 搭载了 16 层堆叠的 HBM4 内存。物理世界模型需要处理海量的三维空间数据和多模态感知数据（视觉、触觉、激光雷达），HBM4提供的 5.0 TB/s 以上的带宽 解决了物理 AI 的“数据贫血”问题。

Vera CPU 的协同： 物理理解需要极强的逻辑判断和调度，Rubin平台配套的 Vera CPU 针对机器人操作系统（ROS）底层的中断响应进行了硬件级加速，将系统延迟降低了 40%。

这些在计算上和对真实世界的模拟上将进一步推动英伟达将其产业触手从互联网和云端算力供应伸展到智能制造，电子产品AI赋能中来。

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英特尔

相较于科技新锐英伟达，老牌芯片制造商英特尔在本轮AI发展中早期处于极端落后趋势，但是本届CES英特尔的NPU以及其快速落地智能制造将AI从云端搬到端口的发展思路展现了其老牌企业顽强的韧性和弯道超车的发展策略，英特尔股价最近表现也极度抢眼。

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    1. NPU5 架构与“端侧算力”的暴力重构

英特尔在 Panther Lake 中引入了全新的NPU 5 架构，其核心目标是彻底解决本地运行大模型的能效瓶颈。

·      算力指标： * NPU 独立算力：50 TOPS。虽然单看 NPU 算力与 AMD 持平，但英特尔强调的是XPU（全平台算力）协同；平台总算力（XPU）：突破 180TOPS（由 50 TOPS NPU + 120 TOPS GPU + 10 TOPS CPU 组成）。

·      70B模型本地化： 英特尔在现场演示了通过 OpenVINO 优化，在搭载96GB 内存的 Panther Lake 笔记本上本地运行700 亿参数（70B）的大模型。这在过去被认为是只有服务器级显卡才能完成的任务。

·      始终在线的低功耗岛： NPU 5 采用了一种“岛屿架构”，允许 AI 以极低电流处理背景任务（如眼球追踪、实时语音翻译），而无需唤醒高功耗的CPU 核心。

2.    核心动向：18A 制程——IDM 2.0 的“荣誉之战”

英特尔的发展思路非常明确：通过制造工艺的跨代领先，强行在能效比上反超对手。

• RibbonFET 与 PowerVia 技术：     * 8A 制程 引入了全环绕栅极（GAA）和背部供电（Backside     Power）技术；数据效果： 相比上一代，Panther Lake 在同等功耗下多线程性能提升了 60%，并将 4K 视频流播放的功耗降低了 2/3。
• 27 小时续航： 这是英特尔在拉斯维加斯打出的最响亮口号。它不仅重塑了 x86 电脑“笨重耗电”的刻板印象，更是直接向苹果     MacBook 的续航霸权发起挑战。

3.    机器人协同：赋能AMR（自主移动机器人）的“小脑”

·      英特尔通过Robotics AI Suite（机器人AI 套件）将 NPU 的能力直接对接到ROS 2（机器人操作系统）底层；空间计算与避障： 机器人在复杂厂区移动时，需要处理激光雷达（LiDAR）和深度相机的数据。GPU负责复杂的三维建模，而NPU 负责高频的避障推理。NPU处理“感知到障碍物”到“发出转向指令”的时间被压缩到了亚毫秒级，极大地提升了协作机器人（Cobots）与人类共存的安全性。

·      本地自然语言交互：2026 年的趋势是“机器人智能体（Agent）”。工人不需要编写代码，直接通过语音命令（如“去 A 区把那个红色零件拿过来”）与机器人沟通；关键突破：英特尔 NPU 能够本地运行7B-10B 规模的小型语言模型（SLM）。这意味着机器人不需要连接Wi-Fi 即可理解复杂的人类指令，解决了工厂复杂电磁环境下网络信号不稳定的痛点。

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波士顿动力公司：

作为非上市企业波士顿动力公司本轮在CES上也是占尽了风头，早年波士顿动力公司是人形机器人的佼佼者，但是近年来在国内制造业大幅领先的情况下，中国的机器人产业层出不穷快速迭代让波士顿动力公司的受关注程度大幅下降，本次CES上其展示的ATLAS电动版本让人眼前一亮，其中他的全方向灵活度的关节和对动作模拟的深度把控让所有观展者都惊呼神迹，同时韩国的现代公司将会引用该模型对厂区进行进一步机器人升级。

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核心技术特点：

1.  超人类的关节灵活性（56 个自由度）：

• 特点： 不同于人类受限的关节，全电动 Atlas 的关节（如颈部、腰部、腿部）具备     360 度旋转能力。在CES现场展示了从地面直接“翻折”起身，并以人类无法做到的姿态原地转身。以超越人类为前提——在狭窄的工厂车间里，它不需要转身即可后退工作，极大地提高了空间作业效率。

2. 具备触觉反馈的“人类级”灵爪：

• 配备了最新的三指/五指触觉传感器手部，能处理复杂的工业零件，不仅能抓取沉重的汽车悬挂件（负重能力可达     50 公斤），还能通过感知物体的细微纹理和硬度来调整抓取力度，实现了强力与精密的统一。

3. 物理 AI 的深度整合（与 GoogleDeepMind 合作）：

• 接入了 Google 的 Gemini Robotics 大模型，具备了“视觉学习”能力，可以通过观看人类操作视频，自主理解复杂的装配流程，无需程序员逐行编写代码。它正在从“执行指令的机器”变为“能理解任务的智能体”。

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核心总结：

如果说过去AI大模型集中在云服务，线上交互上给人类社会带来发展和效率的提升，今年毋庸置疑将是机器人的年份，AI将不再仅存于显示屏的对话框中而是进入方方面面，先从厂区的生产制造开始，接下来将有更多应用场景出现在我们的生活里，而机器人投资也必将吸引进一步的资金和资本的青睐。

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Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.

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Quick facts:

• China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
• USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
• Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.

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This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone. 

For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative. 

For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum. 

For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.

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China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data

What to watch:

With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.

Key release:

• Wed 14 Jan: Trade balance, exports and imports (December) (high sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.

Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).

Japan: FX sensitivity remains the key factor

What to watch:

With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.

Key releases:

• Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
• Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.

Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.

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Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week

What to watch:

In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.

Key releases:

• Tue 13 Jan: Westpac consumer sentiment (low sensitivity)
• Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.

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Other Asia-Pacific events

South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.

Asia-Pacific calendar:

• Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
• Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
• Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports‍
• Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations

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Bottom line

• If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
• If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
• If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
• Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.