市场资讯及洞察
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
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英伟达步入定制芯片领域的新闻引起了广泛关注。据报道，英伟达计划进军定制芯片市场以进一步巩固其在人工智能芯片领域的领先地位，甚至有望在内部打造出类似ARM的企业。这一消息刺激了英伟达股价再次刷新历史最高纪录，市值逼近亚马逊和谷歌。我们上周从Arm股价单日涨近50%，上市半年股价接近翻倍看到了孙正义投资的敏锐眼光，更看到了芯片市场无限商机。而英伟达若能打造自己的”ARM“，其行业领头羊地位将更为巩固。
隔夜美股中，AI领头羊英伟达股价上涨了3.58%，再次创下历史新高。本周股价累计上涨超过9%，年初至今涨幅达到了45.7%。英伟达的总市值已达到1.78万亿美元，逼近亚马逊和谷歌。根据媒体报道，多位知情人士透露，英伟达正在筹建一个新的业务部门，专门为云计算等公司设计定制芯片，以进一步巩固其在人工智能芯片领域的领先地位。有分析认为，这一举动表明英伟达雄心勃勃，希望在内部培育一个专门从事设计授权的Arm。英伟达目前的旗舰产品H100和A100是通用人工智能GPU，这两款产品使英伟达在高端人工智能芯片市场上牢牢占据了约80%的份额。然而，一些科技公司已经开始为特定需求自主开发芯片，以替代英伟达的产品，以降低能耗并降低成本。据消息人士称，英伟达计划帮助这些公司开发定制人工智能芯片，以尽可能减少其产品被替代的影响。报道称，英伟达的高管已经与亚马逊、Meta、微软、谷歌、OpenAI等公司的代表会面，商讨为它们定制芯片的事宜。除了数据中心芯片外，英伟达还在寻求在电信、汽车和视频游戏领域的客户。定制芯片市场目前正在蓬勃发展。据研究公司650 Group估计，数据中心定制芯片市场今年将增长到100亿美元，到2025年将翻一番。另一些机构认为，目前定制芯片市场的总规模已超过300亿美元。英伟达瞄准这一引人注目的市场并不奇怪。除了数据中心芯片，英伟达还希望进入更广泛的定制芯片领域。据报道，有消息人士透露，即将推出的新版任天堂Switch游戏机很可能会搭载英伟达的定制芯片。
英伟达是要再造一个ARM吗？早在2022年，英伟达曾试图以660亿美元的价格收购软银旗下芯片设计公司Arm，但最终因监管阻力未能成功。一些分析认为，当时英伟达试图收购Arm，是因为看到了将技术能力商品化的潜力。如今，英伟达成立专门的定制芯片部门，可能是已经看到了未来的发展方向，并已开始准备再次改变整个行业。也许，它不再需要外部收购，可以完全内部培育一个Arm。随着人工智能浪潮持续发展，越来越多的公司希望降低成本，为自己的产品开发专有芯片，包括亚马逊、Meta、微软、谷歌、OpenAI等英伟达的大客户。然而，许多公司缺乏设计芯片的专有知识。英伟达在芯片设计领域拥有丰富的经验。此外，许多设计可能由于不够通用最终未能成为产品。这些被封存的技术可以通过定制芯片的技术授权实现货币化，利润可观。目前，数据中心定制芯片设计主要由博通和Marvell两家公司主导，两者的年收入分别达到100亿和20亿美元。分析人士预计，英伟达的加入将加剧定制芯片领域的竞争，并可能侵蚀博通和Marvell的市场份额。
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根据日经2024的最新统计： 美国企业的合计总市值正在接近全球整体的5成，创出了约20年来的最高水平。在全球整体总市值中的占比达到48.1%中国企业占全球总市值的份额目前降至10%左右，2015年6月曾一度上升至近2成，不断下跌的A股和港股，给看好中国的投资人带来了深深的伤害。
24年初的A股和港股一路暴跌，市场充斥着失望，绝望的哀嚎。面对已经连续三年大跌的中国A股，连续四年大跌的港股，这几年有多难，想必只有局中人才知道，即使对经济再有信心的人，也无法承受无底线的下跌，今年一月，市场下杀突然加速了，中国中小盘股票平均跌幅在30%，港股中小股也是纷纷再创低点，反观全球其他各国屡创新高，可以说，中国已经陷入了GUZAI和流动性危机，目前恒生指数市盈率略高于7倍，创下40年来最低水平，也远低于全球股市。可以说，港股某种程度上已经陷入了市场下跌、流动性萎缩和估值下降的恶性循环，恒生AH股溢价指数高达151%，创下十年新高，从而对A股市场估值产生了直接的向下带动，以至于跌到没有信心，越出利好越跌，跌到不再相信股市跌出系统性风险出现的时候，市场的预期就会自我实现，现在的救市，也是迫在眉睫了，那救市会有用吗？历史上有哪些救市案例： 2015-2016年期间，中国股市经历了严重的动荡。这一时期的特点是散户投资者参与激增所驱动的快速牛市，仅在2015年前五个月就新开设了3000多万个账户。经验不足的投资者、投机交易和杠杆收购的结合导致了高度波动的市场环境。2015年6月12日到7月3日早盘，仅仅13个交易日，沪指暴跌近30%。2015年7月3日，证监会召集21家证券公司(以上市券商为主)召开紧急会议，决定各券商以2015年6月底净资产15%出资，合计不低于1200亿元，用于投资蓝筹股ETF。这1200亿在7月6日11点前到位，开盘由证金公司垫资入市，市场才开始止跌企稳，当然后来还又创下新低。当时来说，救市是成功的，给了市场流动性避免了更严重的踩踏。
1987年10月19日(黑色星期一),美国道琼斯指数重挫508.32点，跌幅达22.6%。“股价下跌—抛售—流动性出问题—加速卖出—股价暴跌”这样的恶性循环，同样在1987年的美股市场上演。从历史上来看，美国的这次救市，被认为是比较成功的。10月20日开盘前，美联储发表紧急声明，美联储准备就绪为支撑经济和金融体系提供流动性，支持商业银行为券商发放贷款，为上市公司提供回购股票资金。同时，美联储通过大量购买政府债券的方式压低利率，提供充足流动性。10月20日，芝加哥商品交易所、期货交易所暂停交易，阻止股指期货、商品期货给市场带来的恶性循环。美国政府、美联储、美国证监会、银行业的组合拳，使得市场恐慌情绪迅速得以缓解，市场逐步恢复，成为一个救流动性的典范。政府及时大力救市、提供流动性、降息、保证续贷、公司回购、熔断机制。恐慌情绪缓解、未从股灾演变成金融和经济危机、美股再创出新高。
中国大力救市能成功吗？ 信心没有了，才是真的没有了，史诗级的买盘的救市，要能起到维稳市场，扭转信心。Austin认为：短期来看，打破暴跌恶性循环，会有效果；长期来看，救市要做的是改革，否则难以持续。举个例子，中国股市被诟病的是融资市场，不是真投资市场，易会满就任1760天， IPO数量1860家，平均每天1.08家；IPO募资22000亿，平均每天募资12.6亿。他是任期内新股发行最快、数量最多、募资数额最大的一届。学美股搞IPO注册制，搞成注水制，融资全球第一投资回报倒数第一，将限售股出借转融通，大小非变相减持，放任券商搞衍生雪球产品，不严厉打击上市公司造假，这些才是毁掉股市生态和投资人信心的点。所以长期来说，还是要看改革，单纯地更换了新的证监会主席，只是解一时之急。至于一直都知道的几个中国股市的其他下跌影响因素，如美元加息，外资逃离，地方债的大窟窿，房地产硬着陆，新经济产能过剩，这些在跌了好几年的市场里面，该预期的也都计价了。真的要考虑的是实实在在的做点改革，给中国的老百姓留个活路，给点阳光，A股市未来才有希望今天是除夕，我们GO Markets全体祝您在龙年财源滚滚，龙行龘龘，前程朤朤。
Markets enter the new week with risk-on firmly the narrative with all three major US indexes hitting all-time highs last week. In FX markets, the positive market sentiment has seen the march higher in the US Dollar hit resistance and cyclical currencies AUD, NZD and GBP bounce. Ahead this week, traders have a slew of risk events to navigate with Central Bank meetings in Canada, Japan and Europe set to headline, also some big US data in Q4 GDP and the PCE inflation reading set to move FX markets.
Charts to Watch USDCAD – Bank of Canada set to hold after hot CPI A hotter than expected December inflation reading out of Canada presumably will make any meaningful dovish shift from the BoC very unlikely in this week’s policy meeting with markets fully pricing in a hold from the central bank. The 2024 rally in USDCAD hit resistance at the 50% fib level last week and pulled back sharply to test the lower trend line support late in the week. Key levels to watch will be the 50% fib level to the upside (1.3541) if the Bank does confound analysts and take a dovish turn.
If the bank strikes a hawkish tone then the trendline support followed by the big figure at 1.34 to the downside. EURUSD – to pushback or not pushback In December’s policy meeting the ECB basically announced the end of the current rate hiking cycle. Since then markets have priced in an aggressive trajectory of ECB rate cuts this year against the backdrop of a slowing EZ economy.
Are the markets being too dovish in their predictions? This weeks ECB meeting may settle it if we see a hawkish pushback, or no pushback at all. EURUSD set new 2024 lows last week, breaking the key 1.09 support level, which has now turned into resistance.
This will be a key level to watch this week to see if it can re-establish itself as support, or continue as a cap to the upside. USDJPY - BoJ to maintain YCC No surprises are expected from the BoJ on Thursday, with the bank look set to maintain its YCC policy and negative short-term rate policy. It’s more likely any policy shift will come after the March annual wage negotiations, though the BoJ have been known to surprise before.
USDJPY has risen sharply in 2024, at these levels it does look a little overbought as it has streaked ahead of the US10Y-JP10Y yield differential which has been the main driver of this pair in recent past. We are also approaching the 150 level, where chatter of intervention may start up. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
TSLA comes into Wednesdays Q4 earnings report having taken a beating so far is 2024, with the stock price down almost 16% in the first 4 weeks of the new year. Q4 was a quarter that saw the company’s deliveries trend higher, driven by stronger sales of its entry-level vehicles following price cuts, an upside surprise may be on the cards lending relief to stockholders after a big miss in Q3 earnings. Earnings reports for Tesla have been volatile to say the least as mixed results are apparent in the past four quarterly earnings reports, where we have seen two beats and two misses.
For this earnings report, the company is expected to report the same earnings per share (EPS) as Q3, where they missed by 17%, seeing TSLA stock drop around $20 as a result. Looking at the chart TSLA has been trading in a descending channel since August 2023 with a support zone possible between the October ’23 lows of 194.62 and the bottom of the channel around 180.71 if TSLA has another miss. To the upside on a beat the support/resistance level at 232.20 would be the level to watch.
Downside could also be limited by the extreme oversold reading we already see on the daily RSI indicator. Another positive sign for the bulls is skew in the options market currently, with equidistant options from the stock price to the downside (puts) and upside (calls) showing a higher price for calls, while this doesn’t mean the stock price is going higher, it does indicate that options traders are in the belief that a big move to the upside is slightly more likely. TSLA is due to release Q4 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday 24 th of January where they are expected to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.73 on $25.76 billion in revenue.
World’s second largest semiconductor company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM), reported the latest results for Q4 of 2023 before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. TSMC achieved revenue of $19.785 billion in Q4 2023 vs. $19.675 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 14.4% from Q3. Earnings per share was reported at $1.456 per share, which exceeded estimate of $1.385 per share. Company overview Founded: 1987 Headquarters: Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan Number of employees: 73,090 (2022) Industry: Semiconductor Key people: Mark Liu (Chairman), C.C.
Wei (CEO and vice-chairman), Wendell Huang (VP and CFO) CEO commentary "Our fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology. Moving into first quarter 2024, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand," Wendell Huang, CFO of the company said in statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by over 7% during Thursday’s session after the company posted the latest results, trading at $110.32 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +9.03% 1 month: +7.62% 3 months: +18.78% Year-to-date: +6.12% 1 year: +24.84% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock price targets TD Cowen: $95 Barclays: $105 Needham & Company LLC: $115 Susquehanna: $130 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is the 11th largest company in the world with a market cap of $570.66 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) announced reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The largest real estate company in the US reported revenue of $1.756 billion for Q4 of 2023. Revenue missed analyst estimate of $1.85 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share, above $0.588 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 2,466 (2022) Industry: Real estate Key people: Hamid Moghadam (Chairman and CEO), Dan Letter (President), Gary Anderson (COO), Tim Arndt (CFO) CEO commentary "We closed 2023 adding another year of exceptional performance. I couldn't be more proud of our team," CEO of the company, Hamid Moghadam said in a press release to investors.
Moghadam also highlighted challenges for the company for the year ahead: "While uncertainties remain in the economic and geopolitical environment, we are positive about the outlook for 2024. We remain focused on executing the strategy outlined at our recent Investor Forum to drive significant value from our global scale and continue to be a best-in-class partner to our customers." Stock reaction The stock was down by over 2% on Wednesday, trading at $126.86 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/2023. Stock performance 5 day: -5.01% 1 month: -2.77% 3 months: +21.54% Year-to-date: -4.83% 1 year: +3.43% Prologis stock price targets Mizuho: $130 JP Morgan: $148 Scotiabank: $143 Truist Financial: $120 Stifel Nicolaus: $130 Raymond James: $130 Barclays: $153 Evercore ISI: $125 BNP Paribas: $141 Morgan Stanley: $128 UBS Group: $144 Goldmans Sachs: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $145 Prologis Inc. is the 118th largest company in the world with a market cap of $117.21 billion.
You can trade Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Prologis Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap