市场资讯及洞察
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.
EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.
This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.
Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged over 1% against the USD, one of its biggest session gains of 2023 and seeing USDCHF hit lows not seen since SNB intervention back in 2015.
Price action seemed to be more CHF strength rather the USD weakness as CHF handily outperformed all other G10 currencies. USDCHF RSI reading also hit the most oversold level since the safe haven flows of the pandemic panic of March 2020. XAUUSD - Gold Safe haven flows also gave Gold a tailwind with XAUUSD breaching the major resistance at 2070 USD an ounce, which had held the Gold price in check for the last week.
A weaker USD, falling yields also bolstering the precious metal. 2070 remains the key level for now, if the bulls can establish this level as support, another run higher to test the all-time highs could be on the cards. USOUSD – Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil started Wednesday’s session with a rally after further attacks on tankers in the Red Sea sparked supply concerns. The rally fizzled later in the session demand fears after the weekly API report showed an unexpected build in crude inventories.
USOUSD forming a “death cross” (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200 day SMA) for the first time since September 2022, last time We saw this a significant decline in Oil Prices took place.
Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. This saw rate cut odds in March push above the 80% mark with yields and the Dollar tumbling as a result.
The Dollar Index (DXY) pushing below last weeks trough to new 5-month lows, also losing the 102 handle in the process. AUD outperformed after the weaker than expected US GDP reading and an upbeat market risk sentiment. AUDUSD poking its head above the psychological 0.68 for the first time since July before finding some resistance at the big figure.
The major resistance at 0.6900 the next big test to the upside if this rally continues. Gold pushed higher on the weaker USD and falling yields, XAUUSD again testing the resistance at 2047. The last break out of this level took gold to all-time highs a couple of weeks ago, making it a key level to watch for gold traders.
Ahead today the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index will be the main risk event for FX traders.
US food company, General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS), reported its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the US open on Wednesday. Revenue reached $5.139 billion for the quarter, falling short of analyst estimate of $5.354 billion. Revenue was down by 2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.25 per share vs. $1.156 per share expected. EPS was up by 14% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: June 20, 1928 Headquarters: Golden Valley, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 32,500 (2022) Industry: Food processing Key people: Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary "While we saw a slower-than-expected volume recovery in the second quarter amid a continued challenging consumer landscape, we generated bottom-line growth thanks primarily to strong HMM cost savings," CEO of General Mills, Jeffrey Harmening, highlighted the challenges the company faced in the quarter. "We’re adapting our plans to the evolving consumer environment and staying focused on driving long-term growth, with a priority on winning through innovation, brand building, and in-store execution.
At the same time, we’re stepping up our HMM performance and further eliminating disruption-related costs in the supply chain. For the full year, we’ve revised our topline outlook to account for a slower volume recovery, narrowed our profit and EPS expectations within our original guidance ranges, and maintained our outlook for strong free cash flow conversion," Harmening added. Stock reaction Shares of General Mills were down by around 3% on Wednesday after the latest earnings report.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.25% 3 months: -1.76% Year-to-date: -22.83% 1 year: -24.19% General Mills stock price targets Piper Sandler: $76 Evercore ISI: $72 HSBC: $74 Royal Bank of Canada: $76 Morgan Stanley: $58 Mizuho: $70 Goldman Sachs: $61 JP Morgan: $61 TD Cowen: $70 Deutsche Bank: $77 Wells Fargo: $70 General Mills Inc. is the 487th largest company in the world with a market cap of $37.64 billion. You can trade General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: General Mills Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The World's second largest courier company, FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX), released its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. The US company fell short of estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. Revenue reached $22.2 billion vs. $22.356 billion expected.
Revenue was down by 2.6% vs. the same period a year prior. EPS reported at $3.99 per share (up by 25.47% year-over-year) vs. $4.194 per share estimate. Company overview Founded: May 5, 1971 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 520,000 (2023) Industry: E-commerce, services, transportation Key people: Frederick W.
Smith (Executive Chairman), Raj Subramaniam (President and CEO) CEO commentary 'FedEx has delivered an unprecedented two consecutive quarters of operating income growth and margin expansion even with lower revenue, clear evidence of the progress we are making on our transformation as we navigate an uncertain demand environment,'' Raj Subramaniam, CEO of FedEx, said in a press release. 'We are moving with speed to make our network more efficient while delivering outstanding service to our customers through the peak season with the fastest Ground network in the industry. I am confident in our strategy as we make our global network more flexible, efficient, and intelligent,' Subramaniam concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.68% at the end of trading on Tuesday at $280 a share.
The stock price plummeted by around 7% in the after-hours trading as results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +9.43% 3 months: +12% Year-to-date: +61.66% 1 year: +70.37% FedEx stock price targets TD Cowen: $293 Stifel Nicolaus: $285 Susquehanna: $315 HSBC: $330 Loop Capital: $275 BMO Capital Markets: $290 Deutsche Bank: $295 Citigroup: $300 Wells Fargo: $280 Bank of America: $330 UBS Group: $323 Morgan Stanley: $205 FedEx Corporation is the 231st largest company in the world with a market cap of $70.39 billion. You can trade FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: FedEx Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was offered in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) printing a low of 102.060 ahead of the last major economic release for the year in Fridays Core PCE reading. Hawkish leaning comments from the Feds Bostic that he only sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than the Fed median of three and well under the market pricing of six, failing to lend much support to the greenback. JPY was the obvious FX underperformer, seeing USDJPY hit a high of 144.95, just failing to breach the psychological 145.00 level before retracing somewhat.
JPY took a hit on the BoJ meeting where the central bank stood pat and unanimously left its rates and YCC unchanged. There was some pricing in on this pair of a hawkish surprise from the BoJ which didn’t materialise. AUD and NZD were the G10 outperformers.
AUDUSD benefitting from improved risk sentiment and the December RBA Minutes which suggested the Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or keep rates steady, NZDUSD caught a tailwind from upbeat NZ trade data. CAD strengthened on the hotter-than-expected inflation data, where the year on year figure came in at 3.4% a beat of the expected 3.3%. CAD also receiving support from a rally in crude oil prices on the back of Red Sea tensions affecting oil transportation.
USDCAD dropping to 5-month lows and seeing the daily RSI move into extreme oversold territory.