市场资讯及洞察
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特朗普的伊朗战争，最终大概率不会以“大获全胜”作为结束标志，而真正决定这场冲突何时收场的，是特朗普还能承受多大的政治、经济与舆论压力。问题在于，伊朗显然比他更能忍痛。也正因如此，特朗普即便选择撤出，也一定会把这一切包装成一场胜利；而伊朗必然会确保外界不会轻易相信这种说法。这正是特朗普如今最深的困境：他可以宣布结束，却未必有能力定义结束。
如果特朗普在动手之前更认真评估过后果，他本可以为今天的局面做更多准备。首先，他原本应该提前补充美国战略石油储备。俄乌战争之后，美国战略石油储备已明显下降，却始终没有得到有效回补。一旦中东战火扩大，油气供应受到冲击，能源价格飙升几乎是必然结果。相比在危机爆发后被动补救，事先做好准备的成本显然低得多。
其次是提前争取海湾阿拉伯国家的支持，至少让这些关键地区盟友在政治和能源层面与美国保持协调。然而问题在于，特朗普自己始终没有清晰、稳定、可执行的战争目标。没有人愿意为一场目标模糊、边界不清、结果难料的战争站台。结果就是，他不仅没有换来坚定支持，反而面对一个日益焦躁、愤怒、充满不安的海湾地区。
第三，他也没有为美国公众做好心理准备。任何一场针对伊朗的冲突，都不可能只是一次轻描淡写的军事打击。它天然带有升级风险，可能拖长，可能外溢，也可能反噬全球能源市场和美国自身经济。可特朗普并没有为美国社会讲清楚这些代价，更没有为一场可能持续更久的对抗建立政治耐受度。于是，当战争真正进入消耗阶段时，他将发现自己并没有足够的国内空间去承受它。
而这恰恰是当前局势最危险的地方。即便伊朗遭受重创，也不意味着它失去了继续施压的能力。它仍然可以威胁海湾航运，恐吓油轮远离关键海域，也依然有能力扰乱地区能源生产。只要霍尔木兹海峡的通行安全无法被彻底保证，全球能源市场就始终处在阴影之下。除非美国愿意付出占领伊朗的代价，否则特朗普根本无法真正消除这种风险。更何况，伊朗的无人机与非对称作战体系本就高度分散，不可能靠几轮空袭就被连根拔起。
同样，特朗普也没有能力决定伊朗未来由谁统治。政权更迭从来不是外部军事打击就能轻易塑造的结果。阿富汗和伊拉克早已证明，美国可以摧毁一套政权机器，却很难按自己的意志重建一个稳定、听话、亲美的新秩序。即便哈梅内伊体系被削弱，继任者也未必更温和，反而很可能更强硬、更封闭、更敌视美国。在这种背景下，特朗普想逼出停火、迫使伊朗让步，甚至幻想所谓“无条件投降”，都显得愈发不现实。
于是，他手里其实只剩下两个高风险选项。
一个是通过突击行动夺取伊朗剩余的高浓缩铀库存。若行动成功，特朗普也许能获得一个勉强体面的退场台阶，并借此宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核威胁”。对于一个极度在意自己形象、又急于摆脱“临阵退缩”标签的总统来说，这种闪电式战果的诱惑无疑巨大。但问题在于，这种行动的失败成本也极其高昂。历史上，吉米·卡特营救伊朗人质失败，几乎直接埋葬了他的总统生涯。特朗普已经反复高调宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核计划”，一旦现实打脸，他恐怕承受不起这样的政治后果。
另一个选项是占领或切断伊朗关键石油出口节点，例如哈尔克岛，从源头上打击伊朗财政命脉。这听上去像是一种更具压迫力的战略手段，但实际风险甚至更大。因为这不再是一次短促、有限、可控的打击，而意味着更深程度的军事卷入、更长时间的兵力部署，以及更高概率的地面消耗。这不仅会进一步推高石油危机，也可能把美国直接拖入一场它原本并不想真正承受的长期冲突。从回报来看，这几乎是一次极其鲁莽的豪赌。
现实是，美国国内对这种战争的耐受度，远没有特朗普想象得那么高。今天的美国社会，对海外战争的容忍度早已不复昔日。公众不愿接受长期消耗，更无法容忍不断上升的油价、市场动荡，人员伤亡。也就是说，特朗普最可能的结局，不是彻底取胜，而是在代价迅速上升之后选择退场。
抛开这些问题，伊朗在这次冲突中向世界证明了一件事：真正能够保障自身安全的，不是克制，而是核武器。过去几年，伊朗已经多次遭受以色列与美国主导的军事打击。对于这个政权而言，如果不想在未来几个月或几年内再次陷入同样境地，那么最有说服力的自保逻辑，就是尽快提升核威慑能力。即使外部情报与打击能力再强，也未必能彻底摧毁伊朗的核潜力；相反，这场战争反而会把“拥核求生”的逻辑推得更加牢固。更危险的是，其他国家也会从中得出类似结论：在一个越来越不稳定的世界里，真正能防止外部打击的，也许不是国际规则，而是足够强的威慑能力。
而特朗普最难修复的损失，并不只是油价、战损或地区局势，而是美国信誉的进一步流失。世界会记住的，不只是这场战争本身，更是美国政府在尚有其他选项时，依然主动选择动武的方式。战争本应是穷尽外交、威慑、谈判与制裁之后的最后手段，但特朗普给外界留下的印象，却更像是沉迷于展示“杀伤力”和强硬姿态。这样的选择，也许能制造一时的震慑，却会长期侵蚀美国作为理性领导者的可信度。
所以，特朗普真正面对的，不是一场能否赢下的战争，而是一场他很可能无法体面收场的战争。他可以宣布胜利，却无法保证世界买账；他可以选择撤出，却无法阻止伊朗在未来继续抬高原油价格；他可以暂时压低战火，却无法消除这场冲突在核扩散、能源安全与全球信任层面留下的长期阴影。从这个意义上说，特朗普不是在掌控战争或是向世界证明我依旧是那个老大哥，而是变成了世界动荡开始的催化剂。
The largest financial services company in the world, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), released the latest earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the market closed in Wall Street on Thursday. The US company reported revenue of $8.634 billion (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. $8.554 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.41 (up by 11% year-over-year) vs. $2.339 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1958 Headquarters: One Market Plaza, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 26,500 (2022) Industry: Payment cards services Key people: Ryan McInerney (CEO), Alfred F. Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman), Oliver Jenkyn (Group President & Global Markets), Kelly Mahon Tullier (Vice Chair & CPO), Chris Suh (CFO) CEO commentary "Our 2024 fiscal year is off to a solid start. In our first quarter, net revenues grew 9% and GAAP EPS grew 20%, driven by relatively stable growth in overall payments volume and processed transactions, plus strong growth in cross-border volume.
Consumer spending remained resilient. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant opportunities across consumer payments, new flows and value added services," CEO of Visa, Ryan McInerney, said in a press release to investors. Stock reaction Shares of Visa ended Thursday up by 0.35% at $272.61 a share.
The stock dipped in the after-hours by around 3% after the latest financial results were released. Stock performance 5 day: +1.67% 1 month: +4.69% 3 months: +17.87% Year-to-date: +4.71% 1 year: +21.32% Visa stock price targets Citigroup: $306 Mizuho: $265 KeyCorp: $300 UBS Group: $305 Jefferies Financial Group: $295 BMO Capital Markets: $280 Barclays: $278 Raymond James: $287 Wedbush: $270 Oppenheimer: $252 HSBC: $266 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $293 Wells Fargo & Company: $270 Credit Suisse Group: $275 Visa Inc. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $560.26 billion. You can trade Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Visa Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced the latest financial results on Wednesday. The US ride-hailing company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the last 3 months of 2023. Revenue reached $9.936 billion for the quarter (up from $8.607 billion in Q4 2022) vs. $9.756 billion expected.
EPS was reported at $0.66 per share (up by 127.58% year-over-year) vs. $0.163 per share estimate. Full year revenue grew by 24% from 2022 to $137.865 billion. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) CEO commentary "2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale.
Our audiences are larger and more engaged than ever, with our platform powering an average of nearly 26 million daily trips last year," Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares initially dropped by around 3% at the open on Wednesday. Shares flat towards the end of the trading day, up by 0.20% at $70.61 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +8.14% 1 month: +13.10% 3 months: +42.60% Year-to-date: +14.64% 1 year: +91.65% Uber stock price targets Needham & Company LLC: $71 KeyCorp: $79 JMP Securities: $75 Bank of America: $73 Truist Financial: $68 Gordon Haskett: $66 Mizuho: $77 The Goldman Sachs Group: $78 BMO Capital Markets: $69 Nomura: $62 Oppenheimer: $75 Tigress Financial: $72 Wells Fargo & Company: $64 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Morgan Stanley: $62 Uber Technologies Inc. is the 89th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.20 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
FX traders have a bumper week of major economic announcements to navigate, with markets in a holding pattern awaiting the pivotal January Federal Reserve meeting, adding to that a Bank of England policy meeting, CPI readings out of Australia and Europe topped off by the US non-farm employment report. The Charts to Watch: AUDUSD – Aussie CPI and Chinese manufacturing PMI Since hitting a cycle low of 0.6525 and finding support at the December lows on January 17 AUDUSD has traded in a tight range between that support and 0.66 where multiple attempts to push higher have been rebuffed. This week’s data looks set to test that range, starting with Aussie CPI and to a lesser extent a Chinese manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. 0.66 will be the level to watch if we get a hot CPI reading, the support at 0.6525 to the downside if there is a cooler than expected reading.
GBPUSD – Bank of England policy meeting Cable has also spent the last week chopping around in a tight range, GBPUSD price action has been contained in a myriad of technical levels with resistance to the upside at 1.27720 and support at the lower 2024 trendline around 1.2650. At this weeks Bank of England meeting, the central bank is expected to gold rates steady but is will be the accompanying statement and presser where traders will look for clues as to when the bank may start cutting rates that will see FX markets re-price. US Dollar Index (DXY) – FOMC and NFP ahead DXY comes off a choppy week with a pivotal FOMC meeting on Thursday and the always market moving NFP on Friday to get things moving.
The 2024 advance in DXY has been capped by resistance at the 200-day moving average along with the July lows-October highs 50% fib level at 103.55. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this meeting, with futures only pricing in a 2% chance of a cut, but it will be the messaging regarding the March meeting (where there is a 50-50 chance of a cut) that should see some volatility in the USD as markets re-price those odds. 103.55 will be the level to watch for the next move in DXY with a break above or below possibly signaling the next trend in DXY. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
With FX markets being pushed and pulled by market participants betting on when the major central banks are going to start cutting rates (or not) FX traders have some important risk events that will influence those expectations to negotiate this week. CPI and retail sales headline in the US, Aussie traders have the January Jobs report and for Sterling traders, UK GDP figures. The charts to watch US Dollar Index (DXY) – CPI to sway market pricing of a March cut Recent strong employment and growth data out of the US has seen the market reprice significantly lower the chance of a Fed rate cut in the March meeting, with odds currently sitting at around 19%, from around 50% only a couple of weeks ago.
This week’s CPI will likely go a long way to settling market expectations on this. DXY has had a strong run up in 2024 so far as continued Fed pushback on rate cut expectations has supported the USD. Key levels to watch this week are the 100 day SMA to the upside which has capped further upside in the DXY over the last few sessions, and the 200 day SMA to the downside for support.
AUDUSD – Will jobs bounce back after December’s shocker Last Tuesdays RBA meeting saw no cut as expected but with a hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. This was a relief for AUDUSD bulls after a break lower of the support level at 0.6525 on Monday looked like a significant decline was ahead for this pair. The RBA has a dual mandate of inflation and employment to look after, so this week’s Jobs report will be closely watched after the big miss in December’s figure.
The once support of 0.6525 has now established as resistance paired with the 100 Day SMA and will be a key level to watch with this week’s data as to the Aussies next move. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
US tobacco and cigarette company Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) released the latest financial results for Q4 and 2023 full year before opening bell in the US on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $9 billion for the quarter, which was just shy of $9.008 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimates at $1.36 vs. $1.449 per share expected.
Full year revenue and EPS reached $35.2 billion and $5.02 per share respectively. Company overview Founded: 1874 Headquarters: Stamford, Connecticut, United States Number of employees: 79,800 (2022) Industry: Tobacco Key people: André Calantzopoulos (Executive Chairman), Jacek Olczak (CEO) CEO commentary "Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris said after earnings. "We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth," Olczak added. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.68% at the end of Thursday’s session at $88.99 a share – the lowest since October 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -4.57% 1 month: -6.43% 3 months: -0.86% Year-to-date: -5.37% 1 year: -12.73% Philip Morris stock price targets UBS Group: $86.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $115 Redburn Atlantic: $95 Jefferies Financial Group: $105 Stifel Nicolaus: $114 Morgan Stanley: $113 Bank of America: $111 Barclays: $110 Citigroup: $117 Philip Morris International Inc. is the 94th largest company in the world with a market cap of $138.19 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Philip Morris International Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
On Friday, US beverage and food company PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) announced the latest financial results before the market opened. The New York based company reported revenue of $27.85 billion for Q4 2023, falling short of Wall Street analyst estimate of $28.4 billion. Revenue was down from $27.996 billion from the same period in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.78 (up by 6.5% year-over-year) vs. $1.722 per share expected. PepsiCo achieved full year revenue of $91.471 billion. Full year EPS reached $7.62 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share. Company overview Founded: 1898 Headquarters: Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens, Harrison, New York, U.S.
Number of employees: 315,000 (2022) Industry: Beverages, Food processing Key people: Ramon Laguarta (Chairman & CEO), Hugh Johnston (Vice Chairman & CFO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our results for 2023 as we successfully navigated another year of elevated levels of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and international conflicts. Our results demonstrate that the investments we have made to strengthen our business and advance our pep+ agenda are working: it’s evident in how we are innovating, operating, empowering our teams, building our brands, and competing in the marketplace," CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.80% during Friday's session, trading at $168.99 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.37% 1 month: +0.81% 3 months: +1.02% Year-to-date: -0.71% 1 year: -4.30% PepsiCo stock price targets Wedbush: $195 Barclays: $179 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $176 Jefferies Financial Group: $203 DZ Bank: $187 Wells Fargo & Company: $172 Morgan Stanley: $190 Argus: $186 Royal Bank of Canada: $180 Citigroup: $180 Evercore ISI: $185 Deutsche Bank: $195 UBS Group: $205 Credit Suisse Group: $182 PepsiCo Inc. is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $231.86 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PepsiCo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap