市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
Intelligent Cloud (Azure)
Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.
Productivity and Business Processes
Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.
Personal Computing
Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.
Artificial intelligence
Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.
What happened last quarter
Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues.
Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.
Last earnings key highlights:
- Revenue: US$77.7 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted)
- Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
- Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year
- Operating income: US$38.0 billion
How the market reacted last time
Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.
Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):
- Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion
- EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted)
- Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency)
- Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable
- Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Expectations
Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.
Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.
Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16th January 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.
As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.
GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.
USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.
The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.
Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.
You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat
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周三，澳大利亚股市飙升至历史新高，ASX 200 指数当日收盘上涨 1.1%，达到 7680.7 点，比2021 年 8 月创下的上一收盘纪录 7628.9 高出 51.8 点。盘中新高一度触及7682.3。
而澳元对美元不到2小时内暴跌0.6%，累计跌39.4个基点，最低0.65592。
澳洲物价超预期放缓促使澳元短线下跌的主要原因是澳洲通胀超预期放缓至近两年低点4.1%。其实通胀这个话题我们已经聊了2023年一整年了。大家知道澳联储多次的加息就是为了打压物价，抵抗通货膨胀。所以目前的通胀数据超预期放缓对于大家来说应该是个好消息。这代表澳联储今年不仅没有加息的空间，很可能还会开始降息。这对于有房贷压力，以及2023年生活成本增加的大家来说绝对是比较振奋人心的。澳洲下半年可能降息目前市场认为澳联储今年不太可能进一步加息，但是第一次降息也不会太早发生，因为现在通胀下降的速度是达标了，但是澳联储定下的通胀区间是2-3%，目前4.1%的物价水平还是略高了一些。降息可能至少在今年下半年9月份之后开始，到2024年底前，可以期待一下会有两次降息。
GO Markets投资机会解析在2024年降息的大背景下，首先利好的就是股票市场，投资者可以交易我们今天提到的澳股指数，也可以优先关注对利率敏感的公用事业和房地产板块。当然，我们也可以选择交易澳元货币对，目前影响澳元的因素除了今天我们提到 的澳洲不加息，还需要考虑到美国以及中国的经济政策情况。但是可以明确的是，澳元将在区间内运行，因此多空双方都有投资机会。这里可以优先关注澳美及澳日货币对。
US financial services giant, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), reported the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the market open in the US on Friday. JP Morgan reported revenue of $38.574 billion for the quarter, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $39.73 billion. Revenue was up by 11.65% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.04 per share for Q4 (down by 14.84% vs. Q4 2022), also below analyst estimate of $3.349 per share. Company overview Founded: 2000 Headquarters: New York City, United States Number of employees: 308,669 (2023) Industry: Financial services Key people: Jamie Dimon (Chairman & CEO), Daniel E.
Pinto (President & COO) CEO commentary "We ended the year with a solid quarter, producing net income of $9.3 billion, or $12.1 billion excluding the FDIC special assessment and discretionary securities losses. Our record results in 2023 reflect over-earning on both NII and credit, but we remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver very healthy returns even after they normalize. Our balance sheet remained extremely strong, with a CET1 ratio of 15.0%, a staggering $514 billion of total loss-absorbing capacity and $1.4 trillion in cash and marketable securities.
We continue to believe that the recent series of regulatory and legislative proposals, including Basel III endgame, could cause serious harm to consumers, businesses, and markets. We hope that regulators will make the necessary adjustments so the rules promote a strong financial system without causing undue consequences for end users," CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also made comments on the state of the US economy and global challenges: "The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing.
It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also an ongoing need for increased spending due to the green economy, the restructuring of global supply chains, higher military spending and rising healthcare costs. This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect.
On top of this, there are a number of downside risks to watch. Quantitative tightening is draining over $900 billion of liquidity from the system annually, and we have never seen a full cycle of tightening. And the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost.
These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious. While we hope for the best, the past year demonstrated why we must be prepared for any environment." Stock reaction The stock ended Friday down by 0.73% at $169.05 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.87% 1 month: +2.31% 3 months: +14.22% Year-to-date: -0.62% 1 year: +18.21% JP Morgan Chase & Co. stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $190 Bank of America: $188 Barclays: $212 Oppenheimer: $243 Morgan Stanley: $191 Piper Sandler: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $171 Jefferies Financial Group: $169 Evercore ISI: $167 Royal Bank of Canada: $158 HSBC: $159 Credit Suisse: $170 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $488.72 billion.
You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
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2024年美国大选分为五个阶段：各州党内初选（1月-6月）、两党候选人正式提名（7月-8月）、总统辩论（9月-10月）、选民投票（11月-12月）、新任总统就职（2025年1月）。最新的美国民调显示，共和党暂时领先民主党，特朗普支持率47%领先拜登的44%，18-30岁的选民更喜欢特朗普，并且目前七大关键摇摆州均偏向特朗普。今年美国大选特朗普胜率很高，一些特朗普概念股连续上涨，部分股票例如Digital World Acquisition Corp股价在最近一周时间已经从17涨到37美金，超过翻倍。除此之外，受到影响的美国股票还包括，能源和矿业公司：由于特朗普政府对化石燃料的支持和环保法规的放松，石油、天然气和煤炭公司可能受益。国防和军工企业：鉴于特朗普政府增加国防开支的倾向，国防承包商和军工企业可能表现良好。金融服务公司：特朗普政府放松金融监管，可能对银行和其他金融机构有利。制造业和重工业：特朗普承诺振兴美国制造业，特别是钢铁和汽车行业，可能使这些行业的公司受益。建筑和基础设施：特朗普提出的基础设施建设计划可能使相关建筑和工程公司受益。技术公司：特朗普政府对中国技术公司采取的措施可能影响与中国市场有重大业务往来的美国技术公司。医药和生物科技公司：特朗普政府对药品价格和医疗保健政策的态度可能影响这一行业，中长期看医药公司股价会受到压制。贸易敏感股票：受特朗普贸易政策影响较大的公司，特别是在美中贸易战中受影响的公司。包括一些物流公司、包装类公司股价可能会受到冲击。
若特朗普当选，对外重启惩罚性关税的概率很大。特朗普在竞选活动中表示将对墨西哥、加拿大等国采取新的惩罚性关税措施，甚至可能进一步考虑对美国所有进口商品（总计价值约3.9万亿美元）征收10%的“普遍基准关税”。同时，收紧国际援助，对内推动减税、继续建边境墙，限制新增移民。特朗普当下参与总统选举，是美国历史上一个非常传奇的事情。特朗普本人目前官司缠身，在诽谤案件中背叛赔偿8330万美金给被特朗普诬陷为骗子的受害女性。税务上依旧处于被调查的状态，但那位窃取并泄露特朗普纳税记录的男子也受到了处罚，被判五年监禁。对于这样的一位缺点非常明显总统，在意识形态出现严重分裂的美国受到了欢迎，意味着美国国内的经济政策，外交政策等方面亟需变革。美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的任期（2017年至2021年）期间，确实产生了很多对美国居民友好的政绩，涵盖了多个方面。经济上做得贡献很多：实施了大规模的税收改革，降低了公司和个人税率。在任期初期，美国经济快速增长，失业率下降，股市上涨。推动贸易政策重构，包括重新谈判北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），形成了美墨加协定（USMCA）。外交方面：采取强硬的对华政策，包括对中国商品征收关税，引发美中贸易战，重新确立美国全球的经济地位。促进以色列与若干阿拉伯国家之间的关系正常化（亚伯拉罕协议）。与朝鲜领导人金正恩进行历史性会晤，尽管未能实现具体的无核化协议。移民政策：实施严格的移民政策，包括建造美墨边境墙，遏制偷渡行为。废除了奥巴马时期的“追梦人”计划（DACA），虽后来被法院阻止。在环境政策上，退出了巴黎气候协议，并放宽了一些环保法规。若重新当选，可能会鼓励石油开采，将石油价格打压至更低的水平。
总的来说，特朗普竞选美国总统成功，中美可能重启贸易战。石油价格大概率会下跌，特朗普提到希望将石油价格控制在20美金以内，并无视环保主义。其次，俄乌战争可能很快结束，避险资产价格回落。最重要的是，特朗普将中国视为最大竞争对手，并希望增加美国就业，支持美国制造，提升美国的全球影响力。特朗普据说已经在商讨对中国征收60%的关税，取消中国最惠国待遇。同时，可能会扩大到对所有产品征收关税。恒生指数和中概股在这种背景下会继续疲软，不建议大家抄底。但对于澳币可能长期利好，对于美股也有政策上的支撑。免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
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关心新闻的朋友们应该知道，在巴以打了3个月还没有结束之后，现在阿拉伯阵营里的另一个伊朗支持的民兵组织也门的胡塞武装也开始通过攻击过往红海的商船来给世界施加压力，以要求以色列退兵。而这原本声称只攻击以色列的商场，在短短2周之后，现在已经蔓延到了几乎攻击所有过往的商船，不再局限于国籍和宗教。美英虽然已经派出军舰护航并且也轰炸了胡塞武装的基地，但是毫无疑问，现在胡塞武装使用的不对称策略：用500美元的无人机带着炮弹，去袭击美国或其他国家的商船，而美英如果使用防空导弹，一枚大约就是500万美元。这打了心疼钱，不打呢，如果被落后的民兵武装用500美元的无人机打到美英战舰，那脸上也很难看。
大家不要以为这只是八卦新闻，看看就完事了。我们要知道，连接欧亚之间最重要的海上航线就是从埃及苏伊士运河，途经红海，印度洋，再到中国日本和亚洲的这条线。这条线不但有大量的石油船只，还有从欧洲来的汽车，工业品，奢侈品包包，以及从亚洲过去的纺织品，小商品，以及日本的精密仪器。而如今没有商船敢走苏伊士，红海这条路之后，先别说埃及可能会经济崩溃，原本每天收的过路费没了，所有船只不得不从非洲，绕大半个地球，从南非好望角绕去新加坡，然后去中国和日本。这一来一去时间和费用都大幅增加。
可能各位说，费用增加就增加吧，也没办法啊。如果这放在2，3年前也就算了。但是这如今美国和全球都在努力的控制国内的物价。而这工业品和原材料价格一旦在时间和成本上大幅增加，就会再次面临当年苏伊士运河被卡住一样的连锁反应：整个世界的供应链出现停顿或延迟，从电子芯片，到汽车，从笔记本电脑到手机都会出现价格上涨和出货慢。而对于澳洲这个几乎没有制造业的国家来说，除了农业和工业原材料以外都要靠进口。这红海航道一堵，毫无疑问就意味着澳洲进口产品的成本价格将会上涨。我们知道在计算通胀指数时几个最重要的数据分别来自于：租房成本，建房成本，交通成本，蔬菜瓜果，家用电器，以及娱乐餐饮。如果说澳洲政府自己可以通过控制海外学生和移民数量来间接的控制长期租房成本，那建房所需要的大部分材料目前都需要来自海外，而交通成本里的主要开支汽油和柴油价格澳洲也无法控制，除非放弃燃油税，这个目前看很难。家用电器更加无法控制，唯一的餐饮娱乐里还因为再次增加酒精税而备受民众指责。
所以在计算通货膨胀的主要指标里，红海航线可以影响到的占据了大部分。换句话说，这红海航线每多一天无法通行，就会对澳洲的物价压力增加一分。也意味着澳洲原本的降息时间会推迟一分。而同样受到红海航线影响的欧美国家，也会因为潜在的推迟降息时间而使得其国内股市承受下跌压力。所以，红海危机并不是远在千里之外的八卦新闻。这个危机一天不结束，我们生活在澳洲的朋友们的生活压力就迟一天缓和。当然了，澳洲的股市主要受到来自美国的影响。而美国的股市，则主要取决于一点：2024年，美国是硬着陆，还是软着陆。如果是前者，那就意味着可能经济衰退的时间和程度会比较严重，那股市受到影响的时间也会更久。而如果是后者，则将会意味着美国的经济可能会仅仅经历一个小幅度，短时间的回调和下跌，之后马上会恢复。但是不论是哪一种，我本人都觉得2024年我们投资者都会有一次可以逢低入场的机会。要不然，如果天天涨，你敢追吗？免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监