市场资讯及洞察
Markets retreated last week, pulling back about 2.5-3% from record levels. While the decline is modest, it is marked by several headwinds that could create further pressure this week.
Government Shutdown Reaches Historic Length
The ongoing shutdown has now reached record duration, and there's still no clear resolution in sight. Healthcare remains the primary sticking point between the two sides. Some reports suggest potential progress, but the jury's still out on whether any deal will materialise or gain bipartisan support before the Thanksgiving holiday season.
Key Economic Data May Be Delayed
The shutdown's impact extends to data releases. Market-influencing government reports, including jobs numbers and CPI data, may be delayed this week — CPI is still technically scheduled, but the shutdown could affect its release. This data delay will make it harder to gauge the economy's true direction and could inject further volatility into markets.
Earnings Season Continues to Impress
Despite these macro headwinds, corporate America is delivering exceptional results. We're seeing an 82% EPS beat rate and 77% of companies exceeding revenue expectations. While we're in the final 10% of S&P 500 reports, some important retail stocks are still due. These consumer-facing companies could provide valuable insights into spending patterns and economic health.
NVIDIA Tests Critical Support Level
AI stocks are facing pressure, with NVIDIA testing a key technical level around $180-$185. The stock experienced five consecutive days of losses before bouncing strongly on Friday with a major wick rejection. If support at $180 breaks, we could see a drop to $165. However, Friday's bounce suggests a possible retest of $193. This is a crucial moment for the AI sector leader, and its direction could influence broader tech sentiment.
Market Insights
Watch the latest video from Mike Smith for the week ahead in markets.
Key economic events
Keep up to date with the upcoming economic events for the week.
The world’s largest supermarket chain Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) released third quarter earnings results before the market opened in the US on Thursday. Walmart beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United States Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) The results Walmart reported revenue of $160.804 billion for the quarter (up by 5.2% year-over-year) vs. $159.651 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.53 per share (up by 2% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.522 per share. Walmart raised its full-year net sales growth forecast from between 4%-4.5% to between 5%-5.5%. Adjusted EPS expected to reach between $6.40-$6.48 per share vs. analyst estimate of $6.48 per share.
CEO commentary "We had strong revenue growth across segments for the quarter, and we’re excited to get an early start to the holiday season. From a Thanksgiving meal that costs less than last year, to great prices on fashion, toys, electronics, and seasonal decorations, we’re here to help families from around the world make this a special time. Looking ahead, our inventory is in good shape, the teams are focused, and our associates are ready to serve our customers and members whenever and however they want to be served,'' CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction" [insert chart image attached to the email] Shares of Walmart fell by around 7% on Thursday on future outlook despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock performance 1 month: -2.37% 3 months: +0.82% Year-to-date: +10.70% 1 year: +6.05% Walmart stock price targets Jefferies: $195 Stifel: $171 Stephens & Co.: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 HSBC: $200 Evercore ISI Group: $177 Citigroup: $180 TD Cowen: $185 Walmart is the 16th largest company in the world with a market cap of $421.71 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Financial Times
Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production figures have traders re-adjusting for a less hawkish Fed and bringing their timing forward for the pricing in of rate cuts. Why this is important to serious FX traders is because rates and FX have a high correlation, even more in the post pandemic period of cuts, hikes and peak rates and maybe cuts again, big FX traders look for yield and that can be used as important information for smaller players to position themselves to take advantage of that.
An example of this relationship can be seen on the weekly chart of the US Dollar index below. The US dollar Index has fallen 2.5% so far in November, a move first started with the big miss in NFP which saw support at the 23.6 Fib level broken, then accelerating this week on a Cooler CPI which saw it take out the 38.2 Fib level support which the price is currently hovering around at 104.41. This along with the situation in yields will be the level to watch in the short term, if yield and dollar bulls take charge a break and support hold could see USDollar first test the lower trend line resistance, with the next stop from a technical point of view being the 23.6 Fib level resistance at 105.545.
To the downside if yields continue their fall the next technical support will be the 50% fib level, paired with the 200-day moving average. Next week there are a few important data points with FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and manufacturing figures all scheduled. For FX traders they will be worth watching for any further clues as to yields and where traders think they will go as they work to front run the Fed.
Australian employment change for October was released today and showed a decent beat of +55k jobs added vs an expected 22.8k while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in line with expectation. AUDUSD reaction was muted, with markets still convinced that we have seen the peak in the RBA rate cycle with futures barely moving the needle on rate hike odds for the RBA December meeting. We did see a small pike higher of around 12 pips on the release, but it seems the resistance above 0.6500 for this pair is going to be tough to crack and the cross rate quickly retraced to a level below when the reading was released.
Looking at the AUDUSD 4-hour chart a double top of testing the major resistance level is forming with both tops entering the extreme RSI overbought level. A repeat of the AUDUSD sell-off back to the range mid-price of 0.6400 is looking a possibility for this pair unless we see another sell-off of the US Dollar. The sole tier 1 news release out of the US for the remainder of this week is weekly unemployment claims, so that will be the one to watch.
热门话题美联储转鸽 资产大幅反弹美联储在最新的货币政策会议上宣布，将连续三次保持利率不变，同时做出对加息立场的软化改动。
美联储货币政策会议：突显降息预期会议指出将考虑任何额外的紧缩程度，并首次承认了过去一年通胀放缓的情况。本周二数据同样显示通胀放缓的情况，美国11月CPI同比增长录得4%如期放缓，11月核心CPI同比增速持平10月的3.1%。
联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，降息显然是讨论的话题，但对于何时开始货币宽松仍为时尚早。这一决定被视为美联储首次明确表态，承认通胀放缓趋势。分析人士指出，联储此次释放的信号表明对通胀好转速度的乐观，为明年降息敞开了大门。消息利好资本市场，道指收涨512.3点，涨幅1.4%，报37090.24点，史上首次收盘突破37000点。标普收涨1.37%，报4707.09点，去年1月12日以来首次收盘涨破4700点，连续两日创去年1月以来新高。纳指收涨1.38%，报14733.96点，刷新去年1月14日以来高位。
实质上在刚刚结束的11月，资产已然开始全线上涨。纳斯达克指数上涨12.17%，标准普尔指数上涨9.42%，ASX 200 上涨 3.78%，黄金上涨2.31%，比特币10.24%。导致11月资产大幅反弹的底层逻辑是：市场提前计价美联储降息。
美国经济前景：软着陆是否板上钉钉？历史数据显示，过去的美联储紧缩周期中，只有25%以软着陆结束。大多数美联储紧缩周期——自 20 世纪 50 年代中期以来的 12 个紧缩周期中有 9 个——都以硬着陆结束。
此外，信贷利差持续缩小，违约率有所上升，投资者对软着陆的信心可能预期过高。过去一年，被称为科技“七巨头”的苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta七家公司股价飙升对全球股市的涨幅起到了关键作用。这些科技公司在2022年经历了盈利预期的下调，但2023年随着对人工智能（AI）的乐观情绪，盈利预期有所恢复。
AI的影响使得科技行业与利率和宏观经济脱钩，在美联储给的加息周期科技股持续狂欢，市场定价更依赖于长期盈利预期。投资可根据宏观经济与市场动态积极调整投资策略，谨慎应对可能的市场波动，从近期资本市场表现来看，软着陆带来的好消息2023年正被充分定价，这使得在软着陆的情况下市场有可能出现超调风险，投资者可以更同时关注与经济相关的行业，如工业和资源来丰富投资组合多样性。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师
热门话题
曾经辉煌的Star赌场，人满满的，但是现在停车场都停不满。本周Star股票价格继续下跌了10%。其股价从疫情前的5澳币，一路下跌到目前的0.46澳币，堪比当时的中概股，感觉会面临破产风险。其最严重的事情，就是在新南威尔士州无限期吊销赌博执照，以及昆士兰州推迟吊销执照。各州都进行了对Star的调查，发现Star不适合持有赌场牌照，并对其进行暂停营业的处罚。一个赌场，不适合持有赌场牌照，这个还是很痛的。
但是对于赌场内部人士，尤其是高管，他们对自家公司还是很信任的。虽然目前没有牌照，但是还是在积极配合中，且已经签署协议，和新州政府签署了新的赌场税率。按照我们了解澳洲政府的特性，一旦确认了税务情况，基本上距离重启计划就不远了。且Star懂事增持了股票，从35000多股增持到90100股。但是股东并不买账，毕竟股票从今年初到现在又下跌了80%，股东在股东大会上一直叹息，感叹好耻辱啊。且高管们就薪酬计划又要闹罢工。但这次股东比较温柔，因为再罢工就彻底凉凉了。所以，尽管股价一直下跌， 但是还是满足了高管们的需求，并对董事会进行了改组。今年Star已经连续两次融资，第一次在2月，第二次在6月，希望能够度过难关。而接下来，董事会表示，还会有进一步的融资。而我个人认为，Star在股价一路走低，估值不断降低的最后，有可能迎来私有化进程。2023年Star目前已经亏损24.4亿澳币。Star目前依旧面临从Tabcorp赌博集团分拆以来的最严峻时刻。其起因是2021年，Star在反洗钱方面出现了重大失误，引发了两项国家调查，四项股东集体诉讼，以及吊销了赌场牌照。
但是，剔除宏观基本面的情况，或者公司的牌照问题，仅从财务角度来看，Star目前的股价是被低估的。从现金流分析，其股价公允值应该在1澳币以上。但是这个公允值在股票市场里仅仅是有一定的参考价值。就好比AMP这个公司，估值股价都低于公司资产规模了，但还是一路下跌。所以，现金流贴现模型仅适用于公司基本面没有问题的背景下。但是从另一角度来看，如果Star恢复营业，那么其股价翻倍的概率很大。且Star虽然今年多次融资，但其债务水平还是比较健康，并且明年预计亏损减少。但是，威胁依旧存在，首先就是高利率背景下融资成本升高，且目前的现金流不足以支撑公司运转，需要不断融资，直到现金流为正。最严重的是，目前Star股东董事会虽然同意了高管们的薪资要求，但已经有几名高管理职，包括集团法律顾问，和资产管理与开发部门主管。新的CEO也有离职打算，在和董事会达成一致意见后，Nick预计将继续留任，并任命Richard作为新的亚太负责人，管理墨尔本，悉尼，布里斯班和澳门赌场，帮助Star稳定局势，但是如果未来6个月无法证明Star有能力获得赌场牌照，那么管理层还会迎来一次洗牌，且悉尼Star将会关闭。而Star的老对手Crown这几年风生水起，背靠Blackstone的私有化，Crown无需再对外公开披露信息，所以可以进行更多的商业运作，并减弱社会影响和违规带来的负面影响。Crown退市后，获得了更多国际资本的青睐。所以，一旦Star股价持续下跌，且现金流不足以支撑其公司运营，而未来6个月又看不到牌照希望，Star有可能跌至20c，最终迎来机构入场，廉价购买股份，完成私有化退市。但是，如果Star度过了这次危机，并且重新获得赌场牌照，对于股价将会有极大提振，未来大概率可以翻倍回升到1澳币上方。机遇与风险共存，我们也无法得知各州对Star最后的决定，只能拭目以待。但是对于想要小资金博一下的投资者来说，目前Star的股价是可以考虑入场的。
免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
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