市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
Intelligent Cloud (Azure)
Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.
Productivity and Business Processes
Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.
Personal Computing
Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.
Artificial intelligence
Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.
What happened last quarter
Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues.
Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.
Last earnings key highlights:
- Revenue: US$77.7 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted)
- Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
- Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year
- Operating income: US$38.0 billion
How the market reacted last time
Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.
Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):
- Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion
- EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted)
- Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency)
- Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable
- Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Expectations
Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.
Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.
Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16th January 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.
As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
热门话题2023年，英伟达的股价暴涨近2.4倍，而AMD的涨幅也超过了1.2倍。从英伟达一枝独秀、巨无霸般的存在，到如今AMD在市场上略有一席之地，整个过程发生了悄然的转变。台积电（TSM）上周公布的财报大幅推动了其股价上涨，作为英伟达和美国超微公司AMD的主要供货商，台积电的业绩超过预期，积极的展望也带动了这两家公司股价创下历史新高。相比于英伟达屡创新高的强势表现，AMD在上周五才刚刚突破前高，展现出广阔的发展空间。
Wedbush投资公司的报告指出，这样的涨幅源于对景气前景的乐观展望，其中包括人工智能在增长状态下所做出的贡献，以及对2024年更加乐观的市场预期。那么，台积电这一强心针是否能够让AMD在2024年一同起飞呢？在台积电2023年第四季度业绩交流会上，台积电总裁魏哲家对2024年整体市场做了展望。他依然看好今年整体半导体产业，预计半导体产业（不含内存业）的产值将增长10%以上，晶圆代工产业将年成长20%。他预期，受到人工智能（AI）和高性能计算需求的推动，台积电在2024年的全年营收有望实现年成长21%至25%。其中，由于客户对3纳米技术的长期强劲需求，预计今年3纳米技术的收入将增长超过两倍。市场分析认为，由于台积电业绩展望良好，更加明确了人工智能的前景。AMD、英伟达、苹果、高通等科技巨头都是台积电的客户，台积电的业绩预期在一定程度上反映了这些科技公司对今年业绩的展望。Bernstein分析师Mark Li表示，到2027年，台积电预计人工智能芯片将占其收入的百分之十以上。台积电管理层认为，在未来五年内，制造AI芯片有望占到其收入的百分之十几，这对英伟达和AMD都将产生积极影响。
目前，各大投行纷纷上调AMD的目标价，看好其在AI机遇中的崛起，并有望追赶英伟达。在AMD股价持续飙升、不断创下新高的同时，华尔街依然看好其股价继续上涨。在过去三个月里，有超过80%的分析师建议“买入”，平均目标价约为150美元，高于一个月前的130美元，共识评级为“强力推荐”。去年12月，AMD发布了全新的MI300系列AI芯片，试图挑战英伟达在人工智能芯片领域的霸主地位。AMD声称，MI300系列芯片的性能优于英伟达的H100显卡，并已经获得微软、甲骨文、Meta以及OpenAI的订单。科技股分析师Beth Kindig预计，今年MI300芯片的出货量将达到30万-40万块，而英伟达H100的出货量将达到150万-200万块。巴克莱将AMD的股价目标价从120美元上调至200美元，预计今年在AI芯片销售上将实现40亿美元的业绩。与此同时，华尔街知名投行KeyBanc分析师将AMD的目标价从170美元上调至195美元，反映了目前各大公司对AI服务器的强劲需求，并对未来潜力充满信心。Cowen继续看好AMD，将其目标股价从130美元上调至185美元，并表示MI300正在成为生成人工智能市场中“功能越来越强大”的替代品。除此之外，Susquehanna Financial将AMD的目标价提高至170美元。分析师认为，尽管英伟达的领先地位不容小觑，但市场对于第二大供应商的期望和需求将促使软件生态系统进一步发展，从而有利于AMD的崛起。
综上所述，2023年英伟达为芯片行业开疆拓土，AMD紧随其后上涨，2024年AMD有望进一步强化产品特色，其涨势可能比英伟达更为迅猛。在整个AI领域形势不变的前提下，AMD目前的年回报预期优于英伟达。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported the latest delivery numbers for Q4 2023 on Tuesday. World’s largest electric vehicle company produced around 495k cars during the quarter. Deliveries reached 484k.
The company produced a total of 1.85 million vehicles last year – up by 35% year-over-year. Total deliveries reached 1.81 million – up by 38% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1/7/2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The stock was little changed on Tuesday, down by 0.02% at $248.42 a share.
Tesla will announced Q4 2023 financial results after the US market closing bell on 24/1/2024. Stock performance 1 month:+ 5.45% 3 months: -1.26% 6 months: -10.67% 1 year: +101.67% Tesla price targets Morgan Stanley: $380 Wedbush: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $300 Guggenheim: $132 Deutsche Bank: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $210 HSBC: $146 Wells Fargo: $250 Citigroup: $255 Piper Sandler: $290 UBS Group: $266 JP Morgan: $135 Truist Financial: $243 Barclays: $260 Goldman Sachs: $275 TD Cowen: $200 Mizuho: $330 Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world with a market cap of $789.70 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat
US professional services company, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), released financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the market open on Thursday. Revenue reached $1.258 billion (up by 6% year-over-year), which fell short of $1.268 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported at $1.08 per share (up by 9% year-over-year), slightly above estimate of $1.074 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Rochester, New York, United States Number of employees: 16,000 (2022) Industry: Business Process Outsourcing, human Capital Management Key people: B. Thomas Golisano (chairman), John Gibson (president & CEO), Efrain Rivera (senior VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal 2024, with total revenue growth of 6% and diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth through the first half of the fiscal year of 10%. The macro-economic environment remains stable for small and mid-sized businesses, who continue to face challenges in both the cost of and access to growth capital; and finding quality talent in the current labor market.
Our Small Business Employment Watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation,'' John Gibson, CEO of the American company commented on the latest results. ''We continue to see demand for our HCM technology, HR and insurance solutions, as businesses struggle to comply with increasing regulations and a challenging HR landscape and labor market,'' Gibson concluded. Stock reaction The stock fell by around 6% on Thursday, trading at $119.72 a share – the lowest level since 28/11/23. Stock performance 1 month: +0.28% 3 months: +5.27% Year-to-date: +3.22% 1 year: +6.33% Paychex stock price targets Barclays: $126 UBS Group: $120 Argus: $130 Bank of America: $106 Morgan Stanley: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $130 TD Cowen: $131 Wedbush: $115 JP Morgan: $134 Robert W.
Baird: $126 Deutsche Bank: $116 Citigroup: $119 Jefferies Financial: $120 Paychex Inc. is the 419th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.07 billion. You can trade Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Paychex Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.
EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.
This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.
Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged over 1% against the USD, one of its biggest session gains of 2023 and seeing USDCHF hit lows not seen since SNB intervention back in 2015.
Price action seemed to be more CHF strength rather the USD weakness as CHF handily outperformed all other G10 currencies. USDCHF RSI reading also hit the most oversold level since the safe haven flows of the pandemic panic of March 2020. XAUUSD - Gold Safe haven flows also gave Gold a tailwind with XAUUSD breaching the major resistance at 2070 USD an ounce, which had held the Gold price in check for the last week.
A weaker USD, falling yields also bolstering the precious metal. 2070 remains the key level for now, if the bulls can establish this level as support, another run higher to test the all-time highs could be on the cards. USOUSD – Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil started Wednesday’s session with a rally after further attacks on tankers in the Red Sea sparked supply concerns. The rally fizzled later in the session demand fears after the weekly API report showed an unexpected build in crude inventories.
USOUSD forming a “death cross” (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200 day SMA) for the first time since September 2022, last time We saw this a significant decline in Oil Prices took place.
Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. This saw rate cut odds in March push above the 80% mark with yields and the Dollar tumbling as a result.
The Dollar Index (DXY) pushing below last weeks trough to new 5-month lows, also losing the 102 handle in the process. AUD outperformed after the weaker than expected US GDP reading and an upbeat market risk sentiment. AUDUSD poking its head above the psychological 0.68 for the first time since July before finding some resistance at the big figure.
The major resistance at 0.6900 the next big test to the upside if this rally continues. Gold pushed higher on the weaker USD and falling yields, XAUUSD again testing the resistance at 2047. The last break out of this level took gold to all-time highs a couple of weeks ago, making it a key level to watch for gold traders.
Ahead today the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index will be the main risk event for FX traders.