市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
Intelligent Cloud (Azure)
Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.
Productivity and Business Processes
Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.
Personal Computing
Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.
Artificial intelligence
Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.
What happened last quarter
Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues.
Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.
Last earnings key highlights:
- Revenue: US$77.7 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted)
- Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
- Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year
- Operating income: US$38.0 billion
How the market reacted last time
Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.
Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):
- Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion
- EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted)
- Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency)
- Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable
- Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Expectations
Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.
Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.
Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16th January 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.
As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
热门话题在美联储的放纵下，市场逐步引发投机狂潮，约5万亿美元的美股期权周五到期，依然没能引发美股大震荡，整体股指继续走强，三大股指均收下七周连涨，直冲牛市前高。在CPI符合预期回落的前提下，鲍威尔带头放鸽讨论降息，点阵图提升降息预期。本周是圣诞前最后一周，三季度实际GDP和核心PCE都将公布，从市场给出的预期看都能继续利好股市。实际GPD预计达到5.2%，预示着美国经济依然十分强劲，当下不需要担心经济衰退。核心PCE预期回落0.1%也很有希望实现，这也是美联储最关注的数据之一。
圣诞前的市场似乎进入了狂欢，原本预计的圣诞行情早在11月就已经开启，股指连涨7周就是最好的佐证。目前综合消息都显示节前这一周的股市不会太差。首先是市场颇为关注的美联储隔夜逆回购数据已经由高点时期的两万多亿美元每晚回落到了不足七千亿美金每晚，在国债收益率持续回落以及美国财政部缩减四季度发债规模的前提下，这些额外进入市场的资金大概率是进入了股市。另外，FedWatch显示1月份降息的概率到达了接近10%，尽管维持现有利率还是90%左右板上钉钉的，但降息概率的提升是有助于前瞻性市场持续走好的。板块方面，美股重点关注的依然是高科技领头羊的持续上冲以及AI板块持续的发热。上周特斯拉召回203万辆车也没能拖累股价上行，之前预判的200美元附近加码特斯拉在短短一个月已经有25%的获利。按照马斯克对特斯拉全年交付的要求，由于三季度因工厂升级交付不及预期，四季度势必能够超预期交付以完成年化目标，因此进入2024年后公布的季报有望助推特斯拉冲击300美金平台，短线技术面的268美元平台也是近在咫尺。苹果几个月前被炒作成新款手机销量惨淡，结果股价来了一个漂亮的翻身仗，如期攀上历史新高，半年前一直提到的AI应用领域苹果拥有人类健康数据的绝对优势，是未来股价稳健上行的基石，长线苹果依然是和巴菲特一样最稳妥的投资标的，相信伯克希尔三季度因苹果的亏损将在四季度扭转并大幅盈利。另外之前分析的潜力巨头AMD和ADOBE也是值得关注的焦点，AMD如期冲破前压位置，新的一周有望继续上涨，公司市值目前两千多亿美元，较英伟达还有很大的差距，但新品发布后让市场看到了其潜在热炒价值，相比于英伟达超高的股价，AMD无疑短期更有上行空间。另外AI应用层公司ADOBE和C3都是目前较有上涨空间的标的，ADOBE已经在前半年多次分析提及，C3盈利预期推迟到2024年是今年下半年股价被压制的主要原因，但2024年临近，该公司在新的一年也有巨大的上升空间。
澳股方面显然没有美股那么强势，但澳股综合指数位置较高，在澳大利亚依然处于加息周期的前提下已经算是不错的表现。特别是在控通胀大前提下，本就严重依赖资源出口的澳大利亚股市受到能源和原材料价格回落的打击是非常大的，因此相关没有业绩的成长股在近期依然不会有较好的表现。这其中不免提到整个2023年疯狂下跌的锂矿及相关题材，在中国传出碳酸锂交付质量问题被广期所辟谣后，碳酸锂价格的反弹空间被压缩，尽管目前依然有超跌反弹的空间，本周也很可能继续稳健，但持续时间不会太长，锂矿依然是之前提到的能走就走板块。而核能相关的铀矿股近期明显没有跟上国际铀价的上涨，澳铀股依然处于回落后的筑底震荡阶段，但恰恰是中长期来看较好的进场时机，周一澳铀将继续保持回撤，只不过能源影响也不会一直持续下去，股价和原材料的价差也一定会被抹平，让我们拭目以待。圣诞行情其实在不知不觉中早已经开启，本周的行情已经变得不再疯狂，目前的关键是本周数据能否令股市涨势延续到元旦行情，延续到一月以后的行情，这才是值得大家去主要关注的方向。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
热门话题特斯拉的机器人研发团队正在迅速推进中，主要得益于其创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克特有的高效率和对事物多体现出的紧迫感。从马斯克宣布涉足仿生机器人领域开始，短短两年多的时间里，特斯拉就成功研发出了功能性的原型机器人。到了今年三月，特斯拉推出了新款的“擎天柱”机器人，展现了其惊人的技术成果。而在仅仅之后的十个月，也就是在本周三，擎天柱二代机器人也已经闪亮登场了。当时短短一个小时不到，X上的发布视频浏览量就超过了100万次。
(Source: Tesla)通过特斯拉的介绍，也让我们了解到了这代机器人有哪些变化。首先就是这款第二代机器人在颈部增加了更多的活动自由度，整合了电子系统和内部布线，其脚部设计更加贴近人类的形态，配备了分节的脚趾和力量扭矩感应器。其次新款机器人的手部也进行了升级，具备11个运动自由度、更快的执行器和覆盖在每个手指上的触觉传感器，使其能更加灵活地操作物体。视频演示中也可以看到，手部动作越来越接近于人类。从外表上来看，它的外观更加光滑、更接近人类形态，动作更平稳，平衡能力更强，走路时的样子也不再像过去那样笨拙，虽然人们达不到完全拟人化的行动。这款新机器人采用了白色外观，更像是特斯拉的Model S，而不是前代擎天柱的赛博卡车风格。它的重量也减轻了10%。有意思的是，发布视频下方有写，这款机器人甚至能跳出至少和马斯克本人同样水平的舞蹈。不知道是机器人很厉害还是马斯克舞蹈水平太菜哈哈哈。
(Source: Tesla)综合来看的话，这款新型机器人非常令人印象深刻，而对于目前硬件开发的速度只能用惊叹来形容。尽管在运动性能和能力方面，特斯拉似乎还未能赶上波士顿动力及其引人注目的阿特拉斯机器人。不过有一说一，阿特拉斯并不是为大规模生产而设计的，而特斯拉和马斯克在这一领域已经证明了他们的创新能力。事实上，阿特拉斯目前更像是一个研究项目，而特斯拉以及Figure、Agility、Fourier、Sanctuary和Apptronik等公司则明确致力于将人形机器人大规模投入工作领域。想要真正创造为人们服务的仿生机器人。
(Source: Tesla)当然，在这个过程中不可能是一帆风顺的。虽然特斯拉的新硬件看起来非常先进，但目前看来硬件可能并不是最大的挑战。所有仿人机器人制造商的关键任务是证明他们的机器人能在现实世界中执行真实的工作，并且这种执行方式需要可重复、可靠且灵活。到那时，这些机器人将开始真正改变世界。其实可以参考《底特律：变成人类》里面的仿生机器人构想，那时候才是真正仿生机器人可以投入使用的时候。
(Source: Detroit: Become Human)从丰田快速教会机器人使用工具并完成厨房任务的案例就是一个很好的例子。未来也将运用更多AI进行辅助，比如视觉AI正在观察人类的工作过程，并在数小时内掌握新技能。双方进行结合后将会变得更强。在2023年，这项技术进步的速度令人瞠目结舌，而且未来进步速度只会越来越快。我们正面临来自各个方向的重大变革。保守估计，未来5-10年，将会有更强大的AI生态链出现，也会出现真正意义上的仿生机器出现，那么未来的格局也可能会变得不一样了。对于我们投资来说，可以早早的进行布局，不要等到机会来临的世界才开始入场。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师
The world’s largest supermarket chain Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) released third quarter earnings results before the market opened in the US on Thursday. Walmart beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United States Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) The results Walmart reported revenue of $160.804 billion for the quarter (up by 5.2% year-over-year) vs. $159.651 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.53 per share (up by 2% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.522 per share. Walmart raised its full-year net sales growth forecast from between 4%-4.5% to between 5%-5.5%. Adjusted EPS expected to reach between $6.40-$6.48 per share vs. analyst estimate of $6.48 per share.
CEO commentary "We had strong revenue growth across segments for the quarter, and we’re excited to get an early start to the holiday season. From a Thanksgiving meal that costs less than last year, to great prices on fashion, toys, electronics, and seasonal decorations, we’re here to help families from around the world make this a special time. Looking ahead, our inventory is in good shape, the teams are focused, and our associates are ready to serve our customers and members whenever and however they want to be served,'' CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction" [insert chart image attached to the email] Shares of Walmart fell by around 7% on Thursday on future outlook despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock performance 1 month: -2.37% 3 months: +0.82% Year-to-date: +10.70% 1 year: +6.05% Walmart stock price targets Jefferies: $195 Stifel: $171 Stephens & Co.: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 HSBC: $200 Evercore ISI Group: $177 Citigroup: $180 TD Cowen: $185 Walmart is the 16th largest company in the world with a market cap of $421.71 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Financial Times
Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production figures have traders re-adjusting for a less hawkish Fed and bringing their timing forward for the pricing in of rate cuts. Why this is important to serious FX traders is because rates and FX have a high correlation, even more in the post pandemic period of cuts, hikes and peak rates and maybe cuts again, big FX traders look for yield and that can be used as important information for smaller players to position themselves to take advantage of that.
An example of this relationship can be seen on the weekly chart of the US Dollar index below. The US dollar Index has fallen 2.5% so far in November, a move first started with the big miss in NFP which saw support at the 23.6 Fib level broken, then accelerating this week on a Cooler CPI which saw it take out the 38.2 Fib level support which the price is currently hovering around at 104.41. This along with the situation in yields will be the level to watch in the short term, if yield and dollar bulls take charge a break and support hold could see USDollar first test the lower trend line resistance, with the next stop from a technical point of view being the 23.6 Fib level resistance at 105.545.
To the downside if yields continue their fall the next technical support will be the 50% fib level, paired with the 200-day moving average. Next week there are a few important data points with FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and manufacturing figures all scheduled. For FX traders they will be worth watching for any further clues as to yields and where traders think they will go as they work to front run the Fed.
Australian employment change for October was released today and showed a decent beat of +55k jobs added vs an expected 22.8k while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in line with expectation. AUDUSD reaction was muted, with markets still convinced that we have seen the peak in the RBA rate cycle with futures barely moving the needle on rate hike odds for the RBA December meeting. We did see a small pike higher of around 12 pips on the release, but it seems the resistance above 0.6500 for this pair is going to be tough to crack and the cross rate quickly retraced to a level below when the reading was released.
Looking at the AUDUSD 4-hour chart a double top of testing the major resistance level is forming with both tops entering the extreme RSI overbought level. A repeat of the AUDUSD sell-off back to the range mid-price of 0.6400 is looking a possibility for this pair unless we see another sell-off of the US Dollar. The sole tier 1 news release out of the US for the remainder of this week is weekly unemployment claims, so that will be the one to watch.
热门话题美联储转鸽 资产大幅反弹美联储在最新的货币政策会议上宣布，将连续三次保持利率不变，同时做出对加息立场的软化改动。
美联储货币政策会议：突显降息预期会议指出将考虑任何额外的紧缩程度，并首次承认了过去一年通胀放缓的情况。本周二数据同样显示通胀放缓的情况，美国11月CPI同比增长录得4%如期放缓，11月核心CPI同比增速持平10月的3.1%。
联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，降息显然是讨论的话题，但对于何时开始货币宽松仍为时尚早。这一决定被视为美联储首次明确表态，承认通胀放缓趋势。分析人士指出，联储此次释放的信号表明对通胀好转速度的乐观，为明年降息敞开了大门。消息利好资本市场，道指收涨512.3点，涨幅1.4%，报37090.24点，史上首次收盘突破37000点。标普收涨1.37%，报4707.09点，去年1月12日以来首次收盘涨破4700点，连续两日创去年1月以来新高。纳指收涨1.38%，报14733.96点，刷新去年1月14日以来高位。
实质上在刚刚结束的11月，资产已然开始全线上涨。纳斯达克指数上涨12.17%，标准普尔指数上涨9.42%，ASX 200 上涨 3.78%，黄金上涨2.31%，比特币10.24%。导致11月资产大幅反弹的底层逻辑是：市场提前计价美联储降息。
美国经济前景：软着陆是否板上钉钉？历史数据显示，过去的美联储紧缩周期中，只有25%以软着陆结束。大多数美联储紧缩周期——自 20 世纪 50 年代中期以来的 12 个紧缩周期中有 9 个——都以硬着陆结束。
此外，信贷利差持续缩小，违约率有所上升，投资者对软着陆的信心可能预期过高。过去一年，被称为科技“七巨头”的苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta七家公司股价飙升对全球股市的涨幅起到了关键作用。这些科技公司在2022年经历了盈利预期的下调，但2023年随着对人工智能（AI）的乐观情绪，盈利预期有所恢复。
AI的影响使得科技行业与利率和宏观经济脱钩，在美联储给的加息周期科技股持续狂欢，市场定价更依赖于长期盈利预期。投资可根据宏观经济与市场动态积极调整投资策略，谨慎应对可能的市场波动，从近期资本市场表现来看，软着陆带来的好消息2023年正被充分定价，这使得在软着陆的情况下市场有可能出现超调风险，投资者可以更同时关注与经济相关的行业，如工业和资源来丰富投资组合多样性。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师