市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.
Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.
Autonomy and software (FSD)
Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction.
Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.
Energy generation and storage
Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution.
Robotics (Optimus)
Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations.
Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.
What happened last quarter?
In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics.
Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below).
Last earnings key highlights
- Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted)
- Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%;
- Operating margin: ~5.8%
- Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion
- Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY)
How did the market react last time?
Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue.
What’s expected this quarter?
As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change.
Key consensus reference points include:
- Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion
- EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted)
- Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles
- Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower
- Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Key areas markets often focus on include:
- Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
- Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
- Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
- Capex and implications for future FCF
- Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
- Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities
Expectations
Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.
Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.
Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation).
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.
For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
Tuesdays FX session is turning out to be a mirror image on Monday’s session Where the USD was battered against its major peers. Today, seeing almost a full retrace of those moves as USD is once again king. The Dollar Index (DXY) respected the upward trendline support that has led DXY higher since July (with the exception of a brief break in early September).
A less aggressive CNH fix by the PBoC and sour risk sentiment also helping the Dollar. DXY rebounding strongly in Tuesday’s session so far, the 105 level will be key. DXY has found increasing resistance above this level for the last 12 months and with an empty news calendar in the US a push higher through the key 105 level in today’s session would be tough going.
GBPUSD had an initial and very brief spike higher on a hot headline UK average earnings figure, but quickly retraced from a high of 1.2530, losing the psychological 1.2500 as other jobs data painted a grim picture, with the unemployment rate a 200k+ drop in the employment and downward revisions on previous data weighing on Sterling. USDJPY continued to march higher, looking to fill the gap after the Monday open gap down on Japanese jawboning over the weekend. USDJPY did breach the psychological 147 level earlier in the session but has found some resistance there and at the 23.6 Fibonacci level (147.06) going into the US session.
AUDUSD gave back some of the big gains in Mondays session, but a rebound in the price of iron ore and a relatively firm CNH helped the Aussie stem it’s losses against the USD and certainly out performed its Antipodean rival the NZD. AUDUSD holding the key 0.6400 level trading within 0.6417-40, AUDNZD trading near the top of its recent range, getting to a high of 1.0885 in the Asian session. NZD undermined by downgrades to NZ fiscal projections in a pre-election report.
The US economic calendar is empty of key risk events in Tuesday’s session, all eyes will be on tomorrows pivotal CPI report though.
Comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda over the week saw USDJPY gap significantly lower at the Asian session open. The pair now trading well under 147 from eight-month highs at Fridays close. Ueda commented that the BoJ cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates, this brings the timeline forward of Japanese normalization, previously not signaled to begin until 2024.
US-JPY rate differentials compressed on the news, with the predictable move in USDJPY to the downside. USDJPY found some support at the 4H trendline and has retraced some of its losses in the EU session, hovering just below the key resistance level of 146.63, a resistance level that capped gains in the pair during August. Key UK wage and jobs data released on Tuesday, is looking to show some cooling in the UK jobs market but probably not enough to avoid a September BoE rate hike.
GBPUSD holding the major support at 1.2450 and continuing to rise, reclaiming the psychological 1.2500 level, and piercing trendline resistance to the upside. Tomorrows figure, if a big miss or big beat, should see some action in GBP as rate hike/hold odds adjust. The Aussie dollar has surged today, AUDUSD breaking out of its tight September range and reclaiming the major S/R level at 0.6400.
AUD gaining alongside the CNH after the PBoC set the strongest fix signal on record. Chinese data released over the weekend also showing the worlds second largest economy bouncing back from deflation.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) released its latest earnings results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. Let’s see how it performed in Q3. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation, food delivery Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $9.292 billion for the quarter (up by 11% year-over-year), missing analyst estimate of $9.539 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported above estimates at $0.10 per share vs. $0.071 per share expected. Uber completed 2.4 billion trips during the quarter, up by 25% during the same period last year. Monthly active platform consumers reached 142 million in Q3, up by 15% year-over-year.
CEO and CFO commentary "Our relentless focus on improving the product experience for both consumers and drivers continued to power profitable growth, with trip growth accelerating to 25%," Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi said in a statement. "Uber’s core business is stronger than ever as we enter the busiest period of the year," Khosrowshahi added. "Strong topline trends and record profitability demonstrate the durability of our growth and the significant earnings power underlying our platform," Nelson Chai, CFO of the company said about the latest results. "We continue to make disciplined investments in growth opportunities to support long-term value creation for all stakeholders," Chai concluded. The stock was up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at the highest level since 11th September at $48.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.49% 3 months: +8.92% Year-to-date: +98.91% 1 year: +79.26% Uber price targets Keybanc: $50 Seaport Global: $51 Needham: $60 RBC Capital: $58 Wells Fargo: $59 Loop Capital: $58 JP Morgan: $56 Truist Securities: $60 Morgan Stanley: $60 Uber is the 131st largest company in the world with a market cap of $100.92 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
热门话题
我们知道，从2022年第一次加息到现在，澳洲已经经历了超过10次加息。即使现在的利息已经超过了4%，但是在美国没有完全确认停止加息之前，我们谁也不敢保证澳元是最后一次加息。在过去的一年里，澳洲房贷用户如果是贷款60万的，每月对比加息之前还款金额已经超过了1200澳元，而贷款120万的，自然还款增加幅度更大，每个月超过2500澳元。根据澳洲统计局的数据，澳洲有超过30%的人口银行账户里的现金只能维持3-6个月的生活。换而言之，如果这些民众的储蓄率不增加，那在半年后他们的银行存款将会逐步见底。
另外随着超过10次的加息，澳洲的信贷总量在今年8月开始也出现了下降。因为由于贷款的利息太高。不论是民众还是商家，都尽量选择能不贷就不贷，能少贷，就少贷的方式。那按理说，这样一来，经济肯定不好了，就业也应该差了，但是每个月的数据还是非常给力。即使失业率有轻微的增加，在增加了10次以上加息后，澳洲目前的失业率目前依然只有3.7%, 另一方面，物价上涨依然超过5%，高于央行2%的目标。这说明澳洲的经济目前的情况依然很热，民众虽然面临还款压力，但是经过疫情两年超低利息和政府发钱，目前澳洲普通家庭的存款金额几乎创下了澳洲历史最高。如果我们按照疫情之前是2.5%， 疫情2年是0.5%，那现在即使上升到4.5%并且保持2年，综合疫情2年的低利息，4年平均水平也就是2.5%，和2019年一模一样。换句话说，其实民众虽然最近12个月的还款压力有所上涨，但是如果平均到4年来看，2020到现在的总还款数除以48个月，几乎没有改变。
所以，其实过去4年如果你一直都在还贷的话，你的总还款数和疫情之前没有变化。但是不可否认，过去2年，我们生活，交通，娱乐和几乎所有的开支都在上涨。大家有没有发现，咱们身边，包括我们自己，都在抱怨物价上涨太快了，怎么还要加息，本来钱已经不够用了，这加息，房贷增加以后，手里的钱就更少了。但是今天我要说的是，其实加息并非是坏事，反而，这说明，咱们现在经济，社会情况还不错。首先我们来看一下加息的目的：根据官方解读，加息是中央银行或普通商业银行对现行的某种利息率进行有目的的提高的行为，通常是为了实现某具体目标而做出的举措。一般而言，加息的直接目的，是迫使商业银行以更贵的成本向中央银行借贷，进而迫使银行之间的拆借利息（例如银行隔夜拆息、银行同业拆息）提高，来提高整个金融市场短期融资的成本，并进一步增加整个社会的经济运行成本，以此来减少不必要的经济活动。长话短说，只有当央行觉得目前的经济依然过热，并且失业率偏低，换而言之民众和社会可以抵挡住加息带来的冲击的情况下，才会决定加息。虽然加息会伤害到消费，冷却经济，但是也同时可以给物价降温。所以连续的加息，在大部分发达国家经济体里，通常意味着其经济严重过热，需要紧急降温。
澳洲过去一年10次的加息，就是10次的降温冷却。但是这个度非常重要。因为过度的冷却将会意味着整个经济和消费失去活力。而判断零界点最好的方法，就是查看失业率，工资增长数据，以及物价数据。当失业率上升，物价回稳，就是央行停止加息的时刻，也是经济由热转冷的时刻。换句话说，加息停止了，之后就是降息开始准备了。而降息，是为了刺激经济。换而言之，当加息停止的那一刻，就是经济衰退的开始，只是衰退只有到一定程度才会引发央行降息刺激经济。所以说，虽然过去1年澳洲连续10次的加息让我们的房贷增加了不少，但是从侧面，这说明澳洲的经济的强劲，失业率低的惊人。也许年薪百万的工作很少，但是养活自己的工作真的是随处可见。不夸张的说，你随便走进一家零售店或者餐馆或者咖啡店，几乎100%他们都会缺人。在某些行业和岗位，雇主依然为了找到一个合适的人选而愿意出比疫情前多20%的薪水。我在很多年前就一直重复我的观点：加息不可怕，因为只有经济好，央行才敢继续加息。我们真正应该担心的，是当加息真正停止的那一刻。也许降息可以帮助我们节省一些房贷和月供，但是降低背后意味着经济的衰退和工作的流失。
但是，又但是了。还是那句话，澳洲和其他发达国家不同，澳洲最大的优势，就是有一个巨大的人口阀门，可以随时随地根据需要增加移民数量。从而无中生有的创造出大量的消费和吃住行的需求。但是，还有一个但是。昨天澳洲总理终于和中国领导人见面握手了，这是过去6年来第一次中澳领导人见面。抛开政治不谈，这样对于两国企业和经济来说都是个利好。我在上周说过，中国5个月后将会决定是否取消红酒关税，那现在都握手了，你觉得5个月后取消的机率是不是更大了？那TWE和旅游股航空股是不是要看看了？免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监
热门话题巴菲特旗下投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦于4日发布了三季度报告。经营利润跃升四成，投资亏了241亿美元，手握现金创新高。简言之就是替人投资的钱亏了，但丝毫不影响自己赚钱，这也是资金管理的魅力所在。其主要原因是重仓股苹果的股价疲软令伯克希尔出现较大幅度亏损。报告显示，公司第三季度营收932.1亿美元，市场预期891.82亿美元，去年同期为769.04亿美元。第三季度归母净亏损127.7亿美元，去年同期净亏损27.98亿美元。据统计，伯克希尔今年三季度的亏损额在公司历史上位列第四，排在2020年一季度亏损497.46亿美元、2022年二季度亏损437.55亿美元和2018年四季度亏损253.92亿美元之后。刚刚还在感叹巴菲特抄底日本股市，用对日本发债的钱买日本商社的股份稳赚不赔，这三季度财报一出来，可见盘子太大了，某几个部分的盈利还不足以对冲其他地方的亏损。
关于持仓方面，截至9月30日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票持有市值达到3186.21亿美元，主要分布在消费行业（1822.60亿美元）、工商业（743.99亿美元）和金融业（619.62亿美元）。前五大重仓股分别为苹果（市值1568亿美元）、美国银行（市值283亿美元）、美国运通（市值226亿美元）、可口可乐（市值224亿美元）以及雪佛龙（市值186亿美元）。值得注意的是，五大重仓股中有四只下跌，导致公司的投资亏损了241亿美元。其中，苹果下跌了11.61%，美国银行下跌了3.77%，美国运通下跌了14.06%，可口可乐下跌了6.3%，而雪佛龙是唯一上涨的股票，上涨了8.19%。此外，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资组合中还包括两家公司，卡夫亨氏和西方石油，它们在公司中的持股比例相对较高。伯克希尔持有卡夫亨氏的股份比例为26.5%，市值为109.48亿美元，持有西方石油的股份比例为25.3%，市值为145.41亿美元。此外，公司还增加了大量债券的投资，目前持有的短期国债金额达到1264亿美元，相较去年年底的930亿美元有所增加。另一个关键亮点是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的现金储备再次创下新高，达到了1572亿美元。这一增长部分归因于利率的上升，另一方面则是由于公司难以找到有意义的交易机会以投资这些现金。虽然近年来伯克希尔加大了收购力度，但巴菲特和他的投资团队仍然难以找到满足他们标准的大规模交易，这导致了现金积累的增加。在疫情期间犹豫不决之后，伯克希尔公司购买了西方石油公司的股票，以及以116亿美元的价格收购了Alleghany保险公司。由于缺乏有吸引力的替代方案，巴菲特依然依赖股票回购来回馈股东，并认为这些措施对股东有益。最后，值得注意的是，尽管股价持续上涨，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票回购速度有所减缓。公司在第三季度的股票回购额为11亿美元，前三季度的总回购额为70亿美元。作为一贯的做法，伯克希尔·哈撒韦强调投资者不必过于关注其股票投资组合的季度波动，而应更注重实体业务的经营利润表现。总的来说，尽管伯克希尔·哈撒韦在经营方面取得了显著成就，但也承认了疫情、地缘政治风险和通胀压力对业务的负面影响。公司指出，政府和私营部门采取的措施以减轻新冠疫情的不利影响，以及地缘政治冲突、供应链中断和政府应对通胀的举措，对其经营业务产生了一定程度的影响。然而，这些事件的长期经济影响目前难以合理估计。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
热门话题当我们谈论印度，你会想到什么？是其绚丽的宫廷、还是世界闻名的咖喱？但印度不仅仅是这些。最近我深入挖掘了“印度经济解析”这一主题，其中的深度与复杂性令人叹为观止。首先来看看印度基本方面介绍。地理和人口：印度是世界上面积第七大、目前人口超越中国成为了人口第一大的国家。多样性：印度拥有多种宗教、语言、习俗和文化，是一个真正的“大熔炉”。印度有22个官方语言和多达2000多种方言。宗教：印度是佛教、印度教、锡克教和耆那教的发源地。同时，它也有大量的穆斯林、基督徒和其他宗教信仰者。历史和文化：印度文明有超过5000年的历史，是世界上最古老的文明之一。从古代的哈拉帕文明到莫卧儿帝国，再到英国殖民统治，印度有着丰富和多样的历史遗迹。经济：印度是一个新兴的工业化国家，拥有世界上最快速的经济增长之一。信息技术、服务业和制造业都在迅速增长。社会挑战：尽管经济增长迅速，印度仍面临许多社会挑战，如贫困、不平等、基础设施不足和健康问题。教育和科技：印度是全球最大英语为官方语言的国家之一，拥有大量的工程和科学人才。其IT和软件服务业是全球领先的。
从古老的历史脉络，我们可以追溯印度经济的源头，看到其如何从传统农业社会逐步演变到现今的新兴经济体。18世纪之前，印度经济GDP占世界的百分比一直名列前茅。一直可以保持在20%以上。独立前的经济体系：工业革命的大发展下，英国开始在全球殖民，特别是大不列颠东印度公司，从一开始的贸易，变成了殖民。在英国殖民统治下，印度的经济主要是为英国的需求服务的。工业化的进程被抑制，使得印度长期依赖农业。独立后的自主经济计划：二战之后，印度独立后，为了摆脱过去的经济结构，开始推动工业化，并实施五年计划。这种自给自足的模式一直持续到了20世纪90年代。但是有一个问题：许可证制度。接下来会重点进行讨论。1991年经济自由化：印度经历了外汇危机，主要还是苏联解体，最大的出口老大哥，没了。再加上债务问题。这迫使其实施广泛的经济改革，如放松外资限制、降低关税和取消许多行业的许可制度。真正意义上推行经济自由化。其中出现了一个重要环节：许可证制度。许可证制度是在印度独立后，特别是在1970年代和1980年代推行的。它是由当时的政府为了管理和控制工业生产、投资和扩张而引入的。这一制度的主要目的是防止资源浪费、确保社会公正、平衡区域发展、保护小企业免受大企业的竞争，并保护国内产业免受外国竞争。想法很好，现实很残酷，虽然这一制度初衷是为了实现经济和社会目标，但它却抑制了创新、效率和竞争。由于过度的行政干预和复杂的流程，它对私营企业的增长和发展产生了制约作用。同时，在信息不透明的情况下，非常容易产生腐败，也更容易产生垄断。回到时间线上。21世纪以来，印度经济持续增长，GDP更是接连干掉了英国法国，成为了第五大经济体，特别是在服务业和信息技术领域更是发光发热。印度也荣幸地成为了世界最大的外包工厂。全球主要外包业务集成，约一半以上。主要原因：1.劳动力成本低2.有大量的IT人才。3.普遍会说英语，但是听不听得懂，也是看运气。数据来看，印度是全球外包市场的主要参与者，控制着大约55%的IT外包市场份额。印度的IT和BPO（商业流程外包）行业在2020年前的几年中的年度出口收入达到了约1500亿美元。
从这些数据不难分析出，印度的人口结构也是一个相当关键的点。从人口方面来看，印度是一个非常年轻化的国家，人口中位数差不多是28岁。相较于美国和中国的38岁来说真是年轻不少。而且人口已经突破了14亿，真正的人口第一大国。但是也有一个问题，人口足够多了，有那么多岗位吗？就像孟买的Dhobi Ghat，是世界上最大的开放式洗衣场所，每天有成千上万的“Dhobis”（洗衣工人）在那里为孟买的居民和酒店洗涤衣物。这个洗衣场所已经有超过100年的历史，成为了孟买的一个著名旅游景点。这也突出了一些问题，那就是极度廉价的劳动力和工作岗位的缺乏。
最后看看整个国家的经济结构。印度是一个农业国家，拥有世界上第二大农业产出。尽管如此，农业对GDP的贡献比例已经显著下降。到2022年前，农业约占印度GDP的15%左右，但却雇佣了约40-50%的劳动力。在过去几十年中，服务业在印度的经济中起到了越来越重要的作用。尤其是信息技术（IT）和软件服务领域，印度已经成为全球领先的外包目的地。到2022年前，服务业约占印度GDP的50-55%。在过去几年中，随着政府推动"制造业在印度"（Make in India）等计划，制造业得到了进一步的推动。到2022年前，工业和制造业大约占印度GDP的30-35%。分析了印度不同时期的经济状况，也了解了印度的经济结构，我们在下一期，会和大家继续分析，印度经济结构中，有哪些问题？是否有一些我们不是很了解的因素变相的抑制或者推动着印度的发展？我们下期见。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 分析师