市场资讯及洞察

Despite runaway US treasury yields which saw 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2007, the USD was flat in Monday’s session as it seems improved risk sentiment and a technically overbought Dollar Index (DXY)held it in check. DXY traded within a tight range with a low of 103.13 and a high of 103.50, where it was again rejected at the major resistance set at the July and August to date highs. USD traders focus today will be on FedSpeak from Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barkin whose comments will be closely watched ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week.

EUR was the outperforming major currency, with EURUSD pushing hard to reclaim the psychological 1.09 level but failing to hold convincingly above. Another headline to hit the wires was HSBC giving a bullish take on the EUR "in part built on the idea of upside for the EUR from overly dovish rate expectations for the ECB". They noted that while headline inflation figures are cooling, core inflation is proving stickier.

JPY resumed its march lower on Monday, reversing its 2-day rally from late last week. The jump higher in US yields saw carry traders back in action taking the USDJPY back above 146.00 from lows of 145.15. A note from JP Morgan stated that they believe the MoF will not intervene in the FX market at around 145 level as they did previously, with JPM analysts believing the threshold level for BoJ intervention being around 150 level.

AUD and NZD saw marginal gains vs the USD with the Kiwi the lagging vs the Aussie after New Zealand trade figures showed a deficit of 1.1bln in July, vs the prior surplus of 9mln. AUDUSD reclaimed the big figure at 0.6400, AUDNZD holding above the key 1.0800 level. A quiet calendar ahead today for both AUD and NZD, with general market sentiment likely to be the main drivers in price action for the rest of the week.

The AUD/USD pair has had a tough month, falling relatively consistently since mid-July. This decline can be attributed to several factors, most notably the strengthening of the USD driven by the Federal Reserve's firm commitment to ‘higher for longer’ rates, aimed at taming inflation to meet target levels. Another contributing factor to the AUD's descent is the sluggish pace of China's economic recovery.

As China grapples with a gradual rebound, the demand for Australian exports, a crucial driver for the AUD, has been hampered. Despite the challenges, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains room for action in its ongoing battle against inflation. This leaves the door ajar for the possibility of further rate hikes, which could potentially be positive for the AUD.

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair finds itself positioned at a critical support level. Having proven its resilience in late May as a support zone, traders will be watching to see if it will hold again. If this level fails, there is plenty of room to the downside for the pair, with the next major support level at around $0.62.

Key news events upcoming this week that could be a catalyst for the pair will be US Retail Sales on Tuesday and Aussie unemployment figures Thursday.

A -3.5% slide in AAPL stock price pre-market is seeing the tech giant looking to continue this weeks sell-off after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities plan to broaden iPhone restrictions to a number of state-owned companies and other government-affiliated entities. This comes after Wednesday saw the largest one day drop in AAPL stock in over month after the initial plans for the Chinese ban was reported by the Wall St Journal. The Chinese-US tech war seems to be escalating as China attempts to prop up it’s domestic chip makers in the face of US sanctions and reduce its reliance on Western technology, with AAPL an unwitting victim.

AAPL technical analysis: The pre-market currently is showing an AAPL open price of 176.50 a hefty 3.5% lower from yesterdays close of 182.91, this will see the price open below the key technical level of the 100 Day MA and making 8 day lows. Coming into play as well will be the support level of the August lows, after a down move started by a disappointing earnings report in early August. Another key level to the upside is the resistance level of the earnings gap fill, where a rally in AAPL stalled before this recent China induced sell-off.

As dire as the chart looks at the moment, there is some good news for AAPL bulls with some analysts seeing this sell-off as an overreaction as the Chinese ban will only effect 500,000 out of 45M iPhones after AAPL has seen massive share gains recently of the Chinese smartphone market. If we see support at and a hold of the post earnings August lows, a rebound in AAPL is certainly on the cards.

The recent resilience in AUDUSD, which has seen the pair bounce off and hold stubbornly above the 0.6400 major support level came to a dramatic end in today’s session. Risk aversion, disappointing PMI figures out of China and a hold in rates from the RBA all contributing to a break down in the exchange rate seeing AUDUSD break the recent support levels and hit its lowest level since November 2022. Looking at key levels to watch in AUDUSD the 0.6400 will be key in the short term, this is a major S/R level (as most big figures are in AUDUSD) a retake and hold of this level would cement the recovery in AUDUSD and likely a move higher to re-test the 0.6500 resistance level, however if this level is tested and is confirmed as a new resistance level a further move to the downside to test key support levels is a probability.

These key levels are: Daily trendline support around 0.6320 November 2022 lows 0.6275 Major support at the big 0.6200 figure. Also an RSI under 30, indicating an extreme oversold market, the RSI has been a good indicator of turning points in AUDUSD in the recent past. Key risk events ahead for AUD will be Australian Q2 GDP released on Wednesday, July’s Trade Balance on Thursday and Chinese CPI figures released on Saturday.

AUD traders will need to keep an eye on those key levels over these announcements.

The RBA minutes of their June meeting where another surprise hike had most of the market off side were released today, and they were surprisingly dovish. The board made clear the decision between a hike and hold was finely balanced and seems to suggest further hikes may require a high bar for inflation readings to sway them. AUD reaction was swift with AUDUSD selling off around 50 pips as the sellers finally took charge after a grinding rally upwards in AUD that had made nervous wrecks of the shorts.

The Key level of 0.6800 on the AUDUSD has again come into play, with it being almost impenetrable resistance at the top of the AUDUSD range, now it seems as is quite often the case, turning into major support. Drilling down to the 5 minute chart the buying support at 0.68 is obvious, with a decent bounce and hold of 0.6800 as the RSI reading moved into oversold territory. These technical levels will likely drive price action in todays remaining session, no further news is scheduled for Australia and the US calendar is extremely light after their long weekend.

For short term technical traders of the AUDUSD the 0.6800 level is key. Long above, short below while this level remains a major resistance/support level.

In yesterday’s session, the AUDUSD pair experienced a decline of nearly 1%, erasing the gains it had achieved over the past few days. This retracement arrives as the USD displays signs of renewed strength ahead of an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for to see if he drops any hints on the Fed’s plans.

As anticipation builds for Powell's speech, scheduled for tomorrow, market observers are on high alert for any indications regarding the trajectory of interest rates. They are particularly keen on understanding whether the Fed's rate hikes are done or if further hikes are on the cards. Additionally, the market will scrutinise the language Powell uses, gauging its hawkishness or dovishness to decode the central bank's future strategies.

These cues will aid in forecasting potential rate cuts once inflation subsides to desired levels. Technically, the AUDUSD pair hit a recent low of 0.63642 on August 17th, marking its lowest point since November 2022. There is considerable downside before finding the next significant support level around 0.62.

On the 1-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging close to oversold conditions, while there appears to be a minor horizontal support level holding price just above 0.64. Furthermore, the recent breach of a short-term diagonal support trend is worth noting. The market will closely monitor whether this trend can be reestablished over the coming days.

Overall, as the USD gains momentum leading up to Powell's speech, his comments will likely steer the pair's immediate movements.