市场资讯及洞察

USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat the FOMC head said that “policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner.” That was enough to see the USD bulls take charge with DXY up 0.4% for the day, while yields also spiked, this saw some volatility in USD cross pairs and gold we’ll look at the highlights in the charts below.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY pulled back last week after the BoJ tweak to their YCC saw Japanese bond yields rise, giving the Yen a boost. However, as has been the case with this pair in the last 12 months the uptrend quickly resumed, with USDJPY breaking back above the key 151 level and heading towards its 2022 and 2023 high of 151.72. At these levels there is always the threat of a BoJ currency intervention, so traders will need to keep an ear out for any jawboning from BoJ members telegraphing such a move.

If the BoJ steps aside a test of the upper trend line at 154 could be a possibility. If they do step in we could see a decline to a 146 handle and lower trendline before finding any technical support. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has reversed lower this week after the upward momentum failed at the key 2010 resistance level.

Risk premium priced into gold also started to unwind after gaza conflict haven flows pushed the price rapidly higher from early October. Thursday session did see a modest bounce, despite a rampant USD which could give the bulls some hope, however the 23.6 Fib level, which acted as short-term support on the way down now seems to have switched to resistance. This will be the level on the upside to watch (1963.78), the next resistance from a technical point of view will be the 2010 level.

To the downside the 38.2 Fib at 1934.79, which also matches up with the 200 day SMA looks to be the first real support level.

AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether further tightening of monetary policy is required...will depend upon the data" from the previous “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required".

The push lower was also exacerbated by based weakness in the commodity space after a miss in Chinese trade data. Looking at the chart for trading opportunities we can see AUDUSD is trading in a defined range with major resistance at the 0.6500 level and major support at 0.6300 which opens up range trading opportunities with defined stop losses above or below these key levels, another key level is 0.6400 being the mid-price of the range and a level that price has chopped around recently. I think we are likely to see a bit more weakness in AUD on the back of the RBA and risk premiums coming out of gold and oil putting pressure on those commodities.

USDJPY continues to drift higher above the key 150 level into past intervention territory after the dip last week after the BoJ tweaked their YCC to extend the band, allowing Japanese yields to move higher and giving support the Yen. The drop in US yields over the past week and the modest gains in Japanese yields has seen the US 10-year / Japanese 10-year rate differential fall steeply, this rate differential has been a key driver of the USDJPY rate. However, as seen on the chart below USDJPY is remaining stubbornly high despite this, with a decent gap opening up between the rate differential and USDJPY rate.

Whether this gap “fills” i.e. a drop in USDJPY to reflect this rate differential is the question, going from the recent past it would look likely unless we see another leg higher in US yields. For Yen traders the October BoJ SOO released on Thursday will be the next decent data point to keep an eye on.

AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of AUDUSD 3-month trading range is likely to act as resistance and support and will dictate which side of the range AUDUSD will be testing next.

USDJPY USDJPY rose to fresh peaks of 151.92 before a sharp move lower in the cross was observed without any clear catalyst which of course generated suspicions of intervention, especially given the move happened around 10am EDT, where intervention has occurred before. Also adding to the intervention narrative was comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki during the Asian session where he spoke of “undesirable moves in the FX market”. USDJPY fell sharply from 151.92 to 151.19 but did retrace back to 151.70 after the dust settled, if this was a BoJ intervention it seems the 152 level may be the line in the sand and one to watch closely for Yen traders.

XAUUSD Gold rallied on Monday, recouping around half of Fridays losses after finding support at its the Oct lows to highs 38.2 fib retracement level which also matches up with the 200-day SMA. A weaker USD and falling yields also giving gold a boost along with residual safe haven demand.

Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed pushback from Powell and company was inevitable, and pushback we got with a slew of hawkish comments from the Fed chair and his colleagues. USDOLLAR Last week’s fluctuations in the USD highlighted the influence of yields as the US Dollar index tracked the US 10-year yield almost tick for tick.

Key inflation figures from the US this week will test the Feds recent hawkish narrative with US CPI figures out on Tuesday and PPI out on Thursday. The US dollar index did stage a comeback last week, whether that comeback continues this week will be shaped by these figures one would expect. GBPUSD In the UK the recent hold in rates by the BoE has traders feeling that their rate hiking cycle is done and dusted with market pricing favouring another hold at the BoE December meeting with only a 9% chance priced in of a hike.

Sterling traders this week will be watching employment data out on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. It would take some big beats to move the needle on rate hike expectations, but with limited data left after this week before the banks next meeting, these readings will take on extra importance. GBPUSD has been trading in an upward sloping channel since late September, the levels to watch over these announcements will be support at the lower band around 1.2170 and resistance at the top band around 1.2470.

AUDUSD The Aussie took a beating last week after what was widely seen as a dovish rate hike out of the RBA on Tuesday, AUDUSD had been testing major resistance at 0.6500 before reversing course and crashing down to 0.6340 by the end of the week. AUDUSD is now in the lower half of its 3-month range and finding some support but Chinese industrial production and Australian wage data on Wednesday along with Australian employment data Thursday could see the key support level at 0.63 is in play if these figures miss expectations. Full calendar of major news releases below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

热门话题澳联储转鸽 利率维持4.35%周二澳联储利率决议公布，12月现金利率维持在 4.35% 不变。澳联储表示是否需要进一步收紧货币政策以确保通胀在合理的时间内恢复到目标水平将取决于数据和不断变化的风险评估。

上个月，澳联储在四个月保持利率稳定后，将利率提高了 25 个基点。这一决定反映了委员会的观点，即通胀率回到 2% 至 3% 目标范围的进展速度似乎慢于先前的预测。而本次澳联储再次转鸽维持利率不变的原因可能是月度CPI的超预期放缓：11月底公布的 10 月 CPI 增速 4.9%，低于市场普遍预期的 5.2%。10月CPI数据剔除波动性项目后增速5.1%，反映了通货膨胀在澳大利亚经济中的持续存在。月度通胀超预期放缓可能是本次澳联储再次维持利率的主要原因。

加息抑制支出，澳大利亚经济增速超预期放缓澳联储决议后，本周三公布的澳大利亚第三季度国内生产总值增长 0.2%，高于第二季度的 0.4%，低于市场预期的 0.4%。澳大利亚经济增速超预期放缓。季度GDP连续第八次增长，但增长速度在2023年有所放缓。该数据可能会缓解对需求驱动的通胀压力的担忧，澳联储有可能会在一段时间内保持按兵不动以评估经济寻求软着陆。

澳联储利率预期根据ASX联储利率预期追踪，可以看到10月CPI超预期放缓后，市场加息预期从67%下降至33%，而昨日澳联储不加息决议公布后，加息预期再次下降至目前的23%。

美联储12月不加息已成定局美联储将于12月12日至13日召开本年度最后一次货币政策会议。此前鲍威尔没有排除后续加息的可能性，称尚未决定12月是否加息，整体表态释放出鸽派信号。就业数据证实美联储在劳动力市场正常化方面取得实质性进展，支持美联储不加息甚至是降息。隔夜美国10月JOLTS职位空缺873.3万人，降至2021年以来最低，远低于市场预期。进一步表明美国劳动力市场正在降温。

根据芝商所利率观察工具，市场认为美联储不加息的概率接近100%，美联储12月会议不再加息而维持利率5.25-5.5%基本板上钉钉。市场预期博弈转向押注何时降息。

澳美货币对表现澳元/美元周二回调，尽管澳联储维持利率并不意外，市场反应较大。消息后半小时内澳元下挫0.44%，当日累计跌幅超1%，连续两日下跌并跌破200日均线，指向看跌信号。如果该货币对在接下来的几个交易日中无法收复该移动平均线，市场情绪可能会急剧恶化进一步下跌，短线关注下方0.65342位置。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题本周大事件，黄金价格飙升。炒黄金的投资者们狂欢，金价创历史新高。这次大涨的利润有多可观呢？我们不计算低点的1800和高点的2150，因为买在最低点，卖在最高点，比中彩票还难。如果投资者在1900买入的黄金，到2100卖出，1手黄金获利2万美金，大概3万多澳币。在短短的几天时间，2手黄金就实现了一辆Model Y自由。

黄金为什么涨呢？之前也提到了，黄金上涨最大的动力来自于战争和降息。黄金的势能形成后，就像股票和房市一样，越涨越买。无论是投资还是线下的黄金消费，都是这个道理。上周五，美联储主席的讲话，透露出明年降息的信息，很多交易员预计明年5月开始降息，早一点的甚至已经看到了3月。这一点我也是认同的。在加息和降息这件事情上，我还是有一定发言权的。之前预测澳洲必然加息，澳联储打脸，再到新西兰第一个不加息，都预测的比较精准，预测的时间也差不多。这对我们澳洲买房的人是件好事情。所以有产阶级们可以挺一挺，明年降息预期还是在的。澳洲大概会跟随降1-2次，每次0.25%是比较合理的。而无产阶级也不要着急，明年房价最好的时机，应该在上半年，大家可以看看好的标的物。如果明年错过了，也不要着急，除了悉尼和布里斯班，其他城市的人口增长比较稳定，VIC还要从1.1日修改土地税，而降息也是一个周期，不可能几个月搞定，未来的市场还是会有价格的涨涨跌跌。回到黄金，同样是降息预期，一下子把黄金价格拉到天上。之前我们也和大家讲过，加息周期黄金上不去，降息就可以买。金融市场是提前3-6个月预判政策的。瑞银预测，10年期美债实际利率每下降100个基点，黄金就会上涨11%，但在实际利率上涨100个基点，黄金只会下跌4.2%，抗跌性很强，是很好的买涨保值产品。黄金被压了很久，在宏观基本面上来看，黄金本身不产生利息，因此加息背后就是只有避险属性。当降息了之后，黄金的投资属性会凸显出来，同时由于美元降息，会贬值。持有美元的人就会减少一些。市场的关注点就会回到美债危机上。我们看下面的图，黄金价格和美债息息相关。基本就是给美元做信用背书的。这也说明了，各国央行，包括中国央行，一直持续购买黄金的主要原因。就是政府信用和黄金储备量以及价值是有关联的。2023年三季度最新的数据表示，全球各大央行净购买黄金337吨，几乎达到历史最高水平。今年前三个季度，全球央行购买黄金的需求同比增长了14%，达到创纪录的800吨。所以，买黄金股票的朋友也可以放心，卖不掉的黄金背后都有央行兜底。央行对自己本国货币的信心，也需要黄金的补充。

如果想问黄金还有什么时候可以入场，那就是下一次美联储对市场说，你们太天真了，我们不降息。超出市场预期的讲话或者通胀数据，会给买入黄金的投资者敲一下警钟，就是可能降息这个事情，没有完全确定，这样的话，会迎来一次买入机会，价格应该会在2000美金下方，寻找一个支撑，盘整一段时间，消化前期获利盘，而后随着降息周期到来，黄金价格可能在长周期上依旧是持续走高。在投资的角度我给大家的意见就是，错过了黄金期货，买黄金股票，包括NCM这些。同时，由于降息预期来临，股市和比特币这种产品，价格开始大幅上涨。如果错过了比特币价格上涨，或者不懂比特币，可以买Coinbase这些股票，我们投的依旧是传统行业，就是上市公司，由专业的上市公司去投资。比如马斯克和很多科技公司的大佬们就喜欢买币。所以，我们交给他们去操作，买入他们的股票，会更安全，同时也享受数字货币市场的繁荣收益。不知道大家是否还记得，我今年和去年底推荐的coinbase，当时不足50美金，目前价格已经达到了140美金，并且已经打开了上涨通道。所以，资本市场的机会很多，大家要时刻跟紧投资的热点和未来的趋势。股票市场比实际的政策和经济环境早3-6个月，我们比资本市场反应早3-6个月，只要有耐心，财富就可以装进口袋里。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管