市场资讯及洞察

Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) announced its latest financial results after ther market close in the US on Thursday. Marc Zuckerburg’s company crushed analyst estimates for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how the company and the stock has performed.

The results Meta reported revenue of $34.146 billion for Q3 (up by 23% year-over-year) vs. $33.579 billion expected. EPS reported at $4.39 per share (up by 168% year-over-year) vs. $3.643 per share estimate. The company expects revenue of around $36.5 to $40 billion in Q4.

CEO commentary "We had a good quarter for our community and business," Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms said in a statement to investors. "I'm proud of the work our teams have done to advance AI and mixed reality with the launch of Quest 3, Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, and our AI studio," Zuckerberg added. The stock The stock was down by 3.73% at $288.35 a shon Thursday before the latest earnings were announced. However, the stock has experienced a tremendous year so far and is up by over 130% year-to-date.

Stock performance 1 month: -3.95% 3 months: -11.41% Year-to-date: +139.61% 1 year: +190.68% Mate Platforms stock price targets Truist Securities: $405 RCB Capital: $400 Piper Sandler: $355 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $380 Barclays: $400 Rosenblatt: $411 Keybanc: $380 JP Morgan: $400 Meta Platforms is the 7th largest company in the world with a market cap of $741.01 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs, including Meta Platforms.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Meta Platforms Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题澳大利亚最新CPI数据显示，通胀略有放缓，但仍高于预期。9月季度CPI上涨1.2%，同比上涨5.4%。这使澳联储的通胀目标2-3%仍有差距。激进预测表示澳大利亚将有两次加息。

我们都知道澳联储一直在观察通胀情况，希望看到通胀放缓的迹象，以决定是否结束加息。然而，这次数据显然不达预期，市场反应来看，加息预期使得澳元短线走强，而澳股则下挫。

截至消息当日收盘，ASX200指数抹平早盘0.4%的涨幅，下跌0.04%，收于6854.3。

CPI数据分项显示，尽管通胀从峰值7.8%持续放缓，但大多数商品价格仍高于一年前。汽车燃料（+7.2%）、租金（+2.2%）、房屋购买（+1.3%）和电力（+4.2%）价格上涨是通胀主要原因。

而服务业通胀率自2021年以来首次下降，但仍接近20年来的高点，达到5.8%。

关注澳元的投资者都知道，澳元自7月以来持续下行。而如果澳央行真的继续加息，可能为大家带来短线交易机会。今天我们就给大家一次性梳理目前支持澳元上涨及下跌的理由。

首先，澳元看涨离不开加息。根据目前的利率预期，澳洲至少还有一次加息，且利率将在长时间维持高位。物价数据公布后，德意志银行首席经济学家认为 11 月和 12 月将连续两次加息。ANZ、NAB和CBA的经济学家均预计，在11月7日的澳大利亚央行会议上，利率将上涨 25 个基点，达到4.35%。此外是澳央行对抗通胀的态度强硬。澳央行10月会议纪要重申对通胀上行的担忧，并表达继续收紧货币政策的意愿。当时就曾引领澳美短线上涨。

新任央行行长布洛克女士周二的讲话中也表示，如果通胀前景大幅上升，她将毫不犹豫地提高4.1%的现金利率。这表明澳央行货币政策走向将受到通胀数据的持续影响。澳央行在11月7日的联储会议上加息的话，澳元将受到提振。但同时，澳元的看跌理由方面，美元强势仍是绕不开的核心话题。当前，中东地缘政治的紧张局势给澳元带来了不利因素，美元一直以其避险吸引力而闻名施压澳元。此外，尽管澳大利亚央行自疫情低点以来已经加息了400个基点，但对比美联储加息525个基点。即使澳洲央行在11月加息，澳美利率差值仍然会阻挠澳元上涨路径。当然，谈到澳元不得不提到中国经济，澳大利亚高度依赖对中国的出口和贸易。因此，中国经济增长不及预期可能成为澳元基本面的一个关键利空因素。那么投资者们该如何交易呢？我们建议您可以把握短线双向交易机会。

尽管澳元多头在过去的两个月中受到压制，但它在0.63美分附近进行多次测试，下方支撑水平0.62896美分表现出强劲支撑。澳央行后续如果加息有助于澳美突破下行趋势线，上方阻力0.65美分。年底前，澳元大概率会在0.63到0.65美分区间内波动，交易者可把握双向交易机会从中受益。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题在风起云涌的加密货币世界中，少数人敢于挑战未知，冒着巨大风险追求更大的回报。今天，就让我们一起探讨一下这位加密领域的领军人物——Sam Bankman-Fried（SBF）的故事，看看“赌徒”心态在投资世界中是如何成为一把双刃剑的。

Sam Bankman-Fried。1992 年出生于加利福尼亚，在美国长大。在毕业之后，SBF进到了华尔街一家叫做Jane street 的自营性质的交易公司进行ETF的交易，在此期间为公司开发了各种的算法和交易策略。他还获得了风险管理和优化投资组合方面的经验，这些经验后来为他在加密货币行业的工作提供了信息。在2017年，SBF成立了自己的量化公司Alameda Research。因为当时加密货币监管，信息差等问题，疯狂套利赚钱，并且开发改进了交易策略。在2019年，SBF成立了自己的加密货币交易所FTX，也创造了原生加密币FTT。但是，SBF在客户不知情的情况下，SBF让FTX借了超过80亿的资金给Alameda Research（AR），让AR去购买自己的加密货币FTT，不断的抬高自己的FTT价值，吸引更多的投资者。FTX再把客户和投资者的钱借给AR，再去加密货币市场上进行套利操作。而且不只于此，AR也私自借了超过五亿美金给SBF本人去购买Robinhood 股票。但是Luna币的崩盘，加上加密货币的不景气，单只FTX出现了挤兑，并且宣布了破产。近期也是在进行最终审判。那么今天讲的故事就是，SBF在Jane street实习期间发生的故事。SBF和同期实习生被Jane street 教育要学会如何思考，鼓励对赌。无论进行什么样的比赛都可以。但是，当天的最大亏损不可以超过100美金。突然有一天，有一个赌局出现，SBF对手方Asher Mellman。赌局内容：双方达成一个65美元的协议：如果任何实习生当天的亏损超过了65美元，Asher需要支付给SBF超出的部分；而如果所有实习生的亏损都没有达到65美元，SBF则需要补偿Asher 65美元减去最大亏损的差价。也就是，如果一个实习生的亏损达到100美元，那么SBF会收到额外的35美元；反之，如果实习生的最大亏损只有50美元，那么SBF需要给Asher 15美元。我们首先来看这个赌局：

• 单日最大亏损为100美金
• 对于SBF而言，本次赌局最大盈利为35（100-65）美金，最大亏损为65美金
• 对于Asher 而言，本次赌局最大盈利为65美金，最大亏损为35美金

单从数据上来看，SBF的盈亏比相当不合适，这是一个处于完全下风的赌局。然而，我们忽略了一个问题，就是亏损概率。因为没办法拿到近期实习生最大亏损的数据，所以只看盈亏比来说，SBF处于被动。然而SBF不可能甘心与如此被动。于是他开了一个新赌局：抛硬币赌局。如果在场任何实习生愿意抛硬币，无论输赢，都会给参与者1美元的奖励，赌注为98美元。那么我们分析下这个新赌局。掷一个硬币：胜率为50%，亏损率为50%。对于任何参与者：目标盈利 = 0.5 × 98 + 0.5 × (-98) + 1 = 1美金。我们再来看看新赌局加入后，SBF和Asher发生了怎么样的变化。对于SBF：如果SBF赢了，利润是98+(98-65) -1 = 130美金如果SBF输了，利润是-98+(98-65)-1 = -66美金目标利润 = 0.5 * 130 + 0.5 * (-66) = 32美金之前：SBF的最大利润是35美金，最大损失是65美金 --> 现在最大利润是130美金，最大损失是66美金对于Asher：如果SBF赢了，利润是-33美金如果SBF输了，利润是-33美金之前：Asher的最大利润是65美金，最大损失是35美金 --> 现在最大利润是-33美金，最大损失是35美金。SBF在可能亏损增加1美金的情况下，把可能收益从最大35变到了130美金。按照概率来算，目标利润变成了32美金。而Asher，无论这个硬币赌局如何发展，他都会亏损超过33美金。然而有意思的事情开始了，SBF运气很好，一开始就赢了第一局。然而他也并没有停止。继续开了下一局，抛硬币赌注一点点上涨。于是连赢三局后，在四局输了。

此时，SBF的收益最终变成了227.25美金。而Asher 为亏损34美金。理论上，如果SBF一直赢，那么他可以赢光所有实习生当天的钱，而最大亏损也就是66美金。我们现在设想一个假设，如果Asher亲自参与比赛，结果如下：对于SBF：如果赢了，利润=130美金，但每日亏损上限为100美金，所以利润为100美金。如果输了，损失=66美金。对于Asher：如果赢了，利润=98-(98-65)+1=66美金。如果输了，损失=100美金。对于SBF：预期利润=0.5100+0.5(-66)=17美金。对于Asher：预期利润=0.566+0.5(-100)=-17美金。那么当他亲自下场，SBF目标利润有所下调，但是Asher还是会输。因此，之前未知概率，盈亏比不合适的赌局一下子被SBF转变为，概率已知，盈亏比非常合适的赌局中。杀的Asher片甲不留。从这个时间我们可以发现的是，SBF非常会管理预期，无论是自己的还是对手的。实际上在这个事件上没问题，因为上限100美金，而且还是自己的钱。但是如果说换一个情形，这赌注的资金有一部分是借的，那么这个赌局的就会变得更复杂，更接近于现实情况，这个时候，对于SBF 不仅是 FTX 交易所的创始人，更是一位敢于在加密货币市场上大胆投资的人。他的成功并非偶然——这是对市场极度敏锐的洞察力与不畏风险的“赌徒”心理的完美结合。然而，“赌徒”心态是一把双刃剑。一方面，正是这种高风险、高回报的策略使得 SBF 能够在瞬息万变的加密市场中脱颖而出，实现了他的财富积累。另一方面，这种策略同样伴随着巨大的风险——市场的不确定性意味着每一次投资都可能导致失败和财富的损失。SBF 的故事教会我们一个重要的教训：在投资世界中，我们必须学会平衡。我们可以从他的故事中学习到，冒险是必要的，但过度的“赌徒”心态可能会导致灾难性的后果。智慧在于，知道何时冒险，何时保守。投资不是赌博，它需要的是策略、耐心和知识。让我们从SBF的故事中汲取智慧，学会在“赌徒”心态和谨慎决策之间找到自己的平衡点。这样，我们或许都能在各自的领域中，找到属于自己的成功之路。风险的把控，资金量的控制和运用也是必不可少的。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题习主席于24日任主席以来首次访问中国央行，增发主权债务，提高预算赤字率。核心内容：将 2023 年财政赤字率提高至国内生产总值 (GDP)的 3.8% 左右，远高于 3 月份政府普遍认为的国家上限 3% 。该计划包括在第四季度额外发行价值1万亿元人民币（1,370亿美元）的主权债务，以支持救灾和建设。更多的分析师认为，此举为了消除房地产建设和出口下降带来的不利影响。

24日批准的额外财政支持是我们一直期待的干预措施，因为要盘活市场，也要盘活政府资金，需要新的资金介入，同时防止中国在今年最后几周陷入财政紧缩。预算修订凸显了领导层对明年经济前景的担忧，以及公布了一个信号：政府更加注重支撑经济和金融市场。同时，当天公布蓝佛安接替刘昆出任财政部部长，免去刘昆同志的财政部党组书记职务。股市表示很开心，这些举措发出了积极的财政信号：美股中概股普遍上涨，电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车股价上涨超过10%。恒生晚盘大幅度拉升，直接拉了500点。富时中国 A50 期货也加入了涨势。二级市场上，中投公司等中资背景的基金本周持续买入China50成分股中的核心股票，以国有银行股票为主。未来有拉盘可能性。第三季度强于预期的数据导致，中国政府对今年经济实现5%的目标“非常有信心”。不过，一些挑战可能会持续到 2024 年，包括房地产市场持续动荡和通货紧缩压力带来的问题。经济学家预计明年增长率将放缓至 4.5%。未来，通过发行主权债券为基础设施投资融资也可能反映出政策思维的转变，将更多的财政负担置于中央政府身上，而不是那些已经没有杠杆空间的地方当局。这样做减弱了地方财政的权限，但也让资金使用率更高，更有效，权力的压缩也意味着贪腐空间进一步缩减。由中央出面来帮助地方政府解决财政问题。财务部表示，将充分利用直达机制，将国债支出资金全部纳入财政直达资金范围，实施全流程跟踪监测，确保资金按规定用途使用。

2023年全国财政赤字由38800亿元提高至48800亿元，中央财政赤字由31600亿元增加到41600亿元，预计财政赤字率由3%提高到3.8%左右。中国的整体政府负债率低于主要经济体国家，所以中央政府敢借钱，对经济确实有提振作用。未来中国将更多的工作重心放在金融领域，善用金融和财政工具，助力中国经济平稳过度到下一个阶段。

GO Markets可以交易的产品：美股中概股、港股、China50、HK50对于没有时间钻研个股的投资者，可以直接选择China50、HK50或银行股。对于买入的时间，我们此前也提到了，政策持续利好的背景下，市场信心需要逐渐恢复。但前期战争导致美元流出香港，恒生下跌拖累中国股票市场，所以目前有新的政策支持，也是需要一段时间，才能够扭转形态开始上涨。因此，大家依旧要做好布局，通过定投的策略逐步建仓，而不要想今天买入，明天就可以大涨。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

NFP is a significant economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive overview of the employment situation within the United States, making it one of the most closely watched economic reports in the financial world.

Understanding NFP The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report serves as a gauge in the realm of economic indicators, offering insights into the employment landscape of the United States. Specifically, the NFP report quantifies the aggregate number of compensated American workers, deliberately excluding certain categories such as agricultural workers, government employees, private household staff, and those employed within nonprofit organisations. This deliberate omission of such sectors is what lends the term "nonfarm" to this influential economic metric.

Crucially, the data encapsulated within the NFP report provides a holistic overview of the employment scenario, encompassing both full-time and part-time workers. By incorporating this comprehensive view of the workforce, the report becomes a valuable tool for analysts, policymakers, and investors, enabling them to discern nuanced trends and patterns within the labour market. The intricate details of full-time and part-time employment shed light on the multifaceted nature of the U.S. workforce, offering a more nuanced understanding of economic dynamics.

In essence, the NFP report stands as a testament to the intricate tapestry of the American job market. Its exclusion criteria, shaping it into a "nonfarm" indicator, serves the vital purpose of capturing a specific segment of the working population, allowing for focused analysis and informed decision-making in the realm of economics and finance. Why NFP is Important: Economic Health: NFP numbers offer valuable insights into the economic health of the United States.

A higher number of jobs added usually indicates a growing economy, while a lower number can suggest economic slowdown or recession. Interest Rates: Central banks, especially the Federal Reserve in the U.S., closely monitor NFP data. A robust job market can lead to inflationary pressures, influencing the central bank's decision on interest rates.

Higher NFP numbers might prompt the Fed to consider raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Market Impact: Financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and currencies, often experience significant volatility around the time of the NFP release. Positive NFP figures can boost investor confidence, leading to a rise in stock prices.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected NFP numbers can lead to market declines. Consumer Spending: Job creation directly impacts consumer spending. When employment is high, consumers are more likely to spend, which, in turn, stimulates economic growth.

Consequently, NFP data can be a significant factor for businesses planning their strategies based on consumer behaviour. Factors Influencing NFP: Economic Policies: Government fiscal policies, such as tax reforms and infrastructure spending, can influence job creation. Additionally, monetary policies set by the central bank affect interest rates, which in turn impact employment levels.

Business Confidence: When businesses are confident about the future economic outlook, they are more likely to hire new employees. Positive consumer sentiment also encourages spending, prompting businesses to expand and hire more workers. Global Economic Factors: The global economic climate, including trade relations and geopolitical events, can impact job growth.

Uncertainties in international markets can lead to cautious hiring by U.S. companies. Trading Strategies Around NFP: Volatility Management: Due to the heightened volatility during NFP releases, traders often use risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect their investments from rapid market movements. Analysing Previous Trends: Traders analyse previous NFP reports and market reactions to anticipate how the current release might affect various assets.

Historical data can provide valuable insights into market behaviour. Diversification: Traders might diversify their portfolios to spread the risk during periods of high volatility. Diversification can involve trading different assets or using various trading strategies.

Stay Updated: Staying informed about other economic indicators and global events is essential. Factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and geopolitical developments can influence market reactions to NFP data. In conclusion, NFP is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable insights into the U.S. job market and overall economic health.

Its impact on financial markets and trading strategies underscores the significance of this report for investors and traders worldwide. Understanding NFP data and its implications is essential for making informed investment decisions and navigating the complexities of the global economy. How can I trade during NFP?

GO Markets provides a comprehensive range of trading options and resources for investors. When traders are preparing for the release of economic indicators such as NFP, having access to a reliable trading platform is essential. GO offers a diverse selection of trading instruments, including Forex, commodities, indices, and more, allowing traders to capitalise on market movements efficiently.

The platform's educational resources and market analysis tools empower traders to make informed decisions and navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence. In the context of NFP trading strategies, traders can leverage the features provided by GO Markets to manage their trades effectively. Utilising risk management tools, such as setting stop-loss and take-profit orders, can help traders mitigate potential losses and secure their profits during periods of high market volatility, such as NFP releases.

Does GO Markets allow trading during NFP? GO Markets permits trading during NFP announcements. Traders are free to engage in trading activities regardless of news releases or market volatility.

However, GO Markets advises traders to exercise caution and implement a robust risk management strategy, especially during significant events such as the NFP.

Alpha refers to the excess return generated by an investment or trading strategy over and above its expected return, considering its level of risk. It provides insight into whether a trader or investment manager has added value to their portfolio through skillful decision-making or trading expertise. In essence, alpha measures how much an investment has outperformed or underperformed its benchmark or the broader market.

To put it more simply, if a trader's or investment portfolio's alpha is positive, it indicates that the returns exceeded what could be attributed to market movements alone. Conversely, a negative alpha suggests that the performance lags behind the expected returns based on market behavior. Cracking the Alpha Code: Calculation and Interpretation Calculating alpha involves a two-step process.

First, one must determine the expected return of an investment or trading strategy, taking into account its risk level. This is typically achieved by using a risk-adjusted benchmark, such as a market index or a similar asset class. The formula for calculating expected return is as follows: Expected Return = Risk-Free Rate + Beta × (Market Return - Risk-Free Rate) Here, the risk-free rate represents the return on a virtually risk-free investment, such as a government bond.

Beta, on the other hand, measures the sensitivity of the investment's returns to market movements. A beta of 1 indicates that the investment moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 signifies higher volatility, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility. Once the expected return is established, the next step is to calculate the alpha using the following formula: Alpha = Actual Return - Expected Return If the calculated alpha is positive, it implies that the investment or trading strategy has outperformed its expected return based on its risk profile.

Conversely, a negative alpha indicates underperformance. Interpreting alpha requires careful consideration. An alpha that is significantly positive could indicate that the trader or investment manager possesses a unique skill set that enables them to consistently generate higher returns than the market.

This might suggest a high level of expertise in stock selection, market timing, or risk management. However, it's important to note that sustained positive alpha over time is challenging and can be a sign of luck or short-term market anomalies. On the other hand, a negative alpha might indicate poor decision-making, improper risk management, or an investment strategy that consistently lags behind the market.

However, similar to positive alpha, a single negative alpha measurement should not be taken as conclusive evidence of poor trading skill. Short-term market fluctuations can also play a significant role in altering alpha values. Risks and Considerations While alpha is a valuable metric, it's important to acknowledge its limitations.

One key consideration is that alpha calculations can be influenced by short-term market anomalies, macroeconomic factors, and other unforeseen events that are beyond the trader's control. Thus, relying solely on alpha as a measure of trading success can be misleading. Furthermore, alpha calculations can vary depending on the choice of benchmark and the time period considered.

Different benchmarks can lead to different alpha values, potentially altering the perception of a trader's skill. Additionally, alpha calculations are retrospective and do not guarantee future performance. A trader who has generated positive alpha in the past may not necessarily continue to do so in the future.

In Conclusion Alpha provides a window into the proficiency of traders and investment managers. It represents the excess return achieved over and above what could be expected based on market behavior and risk. Positive alpha suggests skillful decision-making and the potential to consistently outperform the market, while negative alpha may indicate areas that require improvement in trading strategies.