市场资讯及洞察
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本来今天想聊聊澳洲央行副行长最近公开谈到的有关澳洲有可能陷入经济低速增长的怪圈的问题,但是想想过去几篇文章都是说澳洲的,自己都觉得有点过于多了。但是很多内容不是我不想说,说国内经济情况,就怕你懂的,说欧美呢,估计大家也没啥兴趣看,说数字货币,也容易被黄标,导致我都不知道说什么好。那想来想去,最近看似比较大的事件就是美国国会关于预算用完,政府停摆的讨论的。
我们都知道,几乎每年来那么一次的停摆,今年又来了。这次停摆的时间再次打破历史记录,到上周末为止,已经超过38天了。没钱发工资、预算批不下来、议会还在吵。看着熟悉吧?因为这已经不是第一次了。过去10年,美国政府停摆过4次,每次都是在最后一刻“凑合”过关。从奥巴马到拜登,再到现在的老川,都一样。
有人说这就是美国政治的一部分,可在投资眼里,这更像是一种系统性疲态——就是那个世界最强信用体的裂缝,越来越多了。而且每次的解决方案都是很不要脸的继续提高债务上限,换句话说就是多印一点美元。
BUT, 就算再无赖,也得按照自己定的规矩来:
美国财政部的数字摆在那儿:
截至2025年10月底,美国的联邦总债务已经突破34.9万亿美元,还在以每秒钟大约4万美元的速度增加。光是2024财年,财政赤字就超过1.7万亿美元。而且更离谱的是,光“还利息”这一项,2025年预计就要花掉1.1万亿美元。什么意思?
就是美国政府借的钱,不是用来搞建设、科研或就业,而是越来越多地在还旧账的利息。这像不像信用卡欠多了,每月只够还最低额?加入一艘航母需要1000亿美元造价(不包括后期维护保养),那每年美国国债需要支付的利息就等于10艘航母的造价。
再看点细的。现在美国政府每收进1块钱税,大概要花掉1块三。财政支出和收入差了三成,完全靠举债撑着。以前大家信美国债是“无风险收益”,现在越来越多的投资机构开始犹豫了。这么每年收100花130,总不是个办法啊,这要是某一天出现点啥问题,是不是之前发美债的都有可能不算了?
那我们老百姓这么想,自然其他国家也会担忧。所以到2024年底,日本和中国这两大美国国债持有人,都在减持美债。日本在过去一年里减少了大概500亿美元持仓,中国更是创下了十年新低,只剩不到7700亿美元。
什么意思?全球主要买家在撤退。买这个美元纸币,太没有安全感了。买了也不是自己的,说查封就查封,说不能用就不能用。这算什么?当甲方还要这么受气。
讲真,这种对美元信用体系开始怀疑的局面在历史上是第一次。美国长期靠发债维持政府运转、靠美元霸权转嫁通胀。可现在,财政失衡、政治对抗、地缘风险……都在削弱那个“美元信仰”。
你想啊,美元强的底层逻辑是什么?是航母和F22,哦不对,说错,重来啊,美元的底层逻辑是什么?是信任。
大家相信美国政府永远能还钱、永远有能力印钱、永远不会倒。可现在连他们自己内部都吵得不可开交,国会关门、债务上限拉扯、甚至连总统都公开说“预算快撑不住”。美元的信任体系开始打折。
这时候你就得想:如果世界对美元信心动摇,那资金往哪跑?
答案其实很简单——黄金。(其实数字货币也起到了部分作用,但是因为过于分散,种类太多,导致资金无法集中)
别看黄金没利息、也不分红,但它有个谁都替代不了的特性:它不是谁欠谁的债。
你拿着美债,信的是美国政府的信用;你拿着黄金,信的是全人类几千年的共识。几千年前的埃及法老都爱这个,肯定没错。
最近几个月黄金的表现也印证了这点。
2024年年底,国际金价突破每盎司2400美元的新高,到了2025年10月,又一次冲上2500美元附近。你说这只是地缘政治?那只是表面。深层原因,是全球在寻找美元之外的安全锚。
咱看印度、土耳其、俄罗斯这些国家央行,去年都在疯狂买金。根据世界黄金协会的数据,2024年各国央行净增持黄金超1000吨,创下历史第二高。
这说明:连各国政府都不太敢再押宝美元。我的看法很简单:
黄金这波不是短线冲动,而是长期趋势在切换。
美元几十年的霸权红利,靠的是全球信任。可当信任开始松动,这个故事的主角可能要换了。除非美国再次把老二老三整服气了,之后各位小弟就会再次对大哥的地位不会质疑了。作为群众,咱们其实不希望看到这一天到来,不论结局谁赢,期间的不可控因素太多,一旦一个不小心,咱们就要见证咱们现代人类最后的辉煌了。
最后,我不建议大家一股脑地“梭哈黄金”,但起码你得让自己有点配置。就像以前老人说的——“仓里没点金,心里没底气。”
那具体咋搞?
你可以分几种方式:
1. 实物金:最笨但最踏实。买金币、金条,放保险箱。但是每次买卖差价几乎等于价格的10%,交易成本极高。
2. 纸黄金/ETF:操作灵活,适合不想拿实物的人。缺点是,手里没有那个沉甸甸的金子,总感觉只是个数字而已。
3. 黄金矿业股:风险高、弹性大,适合激进投资者。这个就看人品了,如果运气好,5倍10倍不是梦,当然,更大的机率是,没挖到,宝马变单车。
从长远来看,我个人倾向于使用自己资金10-30%购买ETF作为“稳健基础”。这不是投机,而是保险。你不指望它天天涨,但万一美元系统出事,它能救你一命。
再说一句现实点的。
现在美国债务增长速度远高于GDP增长。也就是说,他们靠印钱维持系统平衡。通胀虽然被压了一点,但核心通胀还在3%左右,远高于美联储2%的目标。
这意味着:美联储降息空间有限,财政却还要继续借钱。
那结果?
货币越来越多,信用越来越稀。
黄金,就是对冲这种“信用通胀”的最好工具。
有人问:“那美元真的会崩吗?”
麦哥的回答是:不会马上崩,但它会慢慢失去神圣光环。这不,11艘航母还是很厉害的。
历史上没有哪个超级货币能永远称王。英镑用了100多年从巅峰掉下来,美元可能也会经历同样过程。如果大家学过历史应该可以知道,黄金在1971年美元脱钩后,从每盎司35美元涨到现在的2500美元。它没变,是货币的实际价值在变。
所以,简单总结:
美国政府停摆也许能暂时拖过去,债务上限也许能再抬一点,但信任这种东西,一旦开始透支,就很难补回来。你不能指望一个连工资都快发不出的政府,永远当世界的“信用中心”。美元可能还会强一阵子,但我认为黄金这波超级大牛市,才刚刚开始。
各位读者,我不是劝你买金发财,而是提醒你:这个世界的信用体系,正在慢慢换轨。
写完以后,赶紧用上网乘着黑五买一堆没用的垃圾。虽然咱们知道黄金美丽,价格长虹,但是咱日常生活,还是纸币方便啊。
生活还得过,但是咱们脑子不能糊涂。对吧?
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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Gold has always been one of the most popular and highly traded markets for CFD traders, especially recently as its price has risen to test its all-time highs. It’s easy to see why, Gold has been a store of value throughout history and now with institutional grade spreads and zero commission there has never been a better time for GO Markets clients to trade this exciting market. At GO Markets we offer our clients the world’s most popular gold trading platforms in Metatrader 4/5 and C-Trader, as well as ultra-fast execution for manual traders these CFD trading platforms also give you the ability to automate gold trading strategies.
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Flexibility in position sizing starting from 0.01 lots. Fundamental forces that drive the price of gold While no one reason can be fully attributed to movements in the price of gold, there are an important few fundamental drivers that will influence the price of gold and whose relationship has been time tested. None of these on their own should be used as a sole reason to enter a position, but having the fundamentals on your side will certainly give you an advantage.
The main fundamental drivers in my experience are (not an exhaustive list by any means!) The gold price relationship to US bond yields Safe haven flows Central Bank buying Real Yields and Gold The inverse relationship between bond yields and the price of gold is well established, especially the real yield on the US 10-year bond. The reason for this mainly is because the real yield (the real yield is calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the actual yield of the US 10-year government bond) is seen as the “risk free” rate on an investment, the higher the “risk free” rate is, the less attractive a non-yield paying asset like gold is. As both gold and bonds are seen as safe havens, they are competing for the same investors.
See the screenshot below to illustrate this point. Source: longtermtrends.net The gold line is the price of gold, the black line is the inverted real yield of 10-year treasuries. This chart stretches back 16 years, but the close relationship has gone back much longer than that.
This chart is showing that historically, gold is expensive at the moment as compared to real yields as can be seen by the growing gap between the two recently, this interesting decoupling has been mainly caused by our second fundamental driver – safe haven flows. Safe Haven Flows Geopolitical strife with war in Ukraine and doubts over the health of the global economy got things started with the surge we have seen in gold prices in the last 5 months, but things went into overdrive in March 2023 when Signature bank and Credit Suisse collapsed, bring into question the integrity of the banking system and massive safe haven flows into gold which has pushed the price to within touching distance of hitting all-time highs. With the banking crisis seemingly under control (for now maybe?) gold has lost some momentum, but the fact it is holding around these elevated prices indicates some investors may not think the crisis is over just yet.
Central Bank Buying Central banks are some of the biggest buyers of gold on the open market, and 2022 saw the most central bank buying of gold on record. Whatever the reasons for this, such massive amounts of buying would be seen as a bullish sign for the gold price (if it continues). GO Markets clients also have access to Trading Central which automatically detects technical set ups for our traders to add to their decision making.
Trading Central can be accessed by account holders through their Client Portal. Trading Central Pattern example below: Feel free to contact the GO Markets team if you have any questions on trading gold CFDs.


World’s largest entertainment company The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) announced second quarter financial results ended April 1, 2023, after the market close on Wall Street on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob Iger (CEO) The results Walt Disney reported revenue of $21.815 billion for the quarter vs. $21.795 billion expected. Revenues were up by 13% vs. same period last year.
Earnings per share fell slightly short of expectations at $0.93 per share (down by 14% year-over-year) vs. $0.933 per share estimate. Disney+ subscribers fell from 161.8 million to 157.8 million in the quarter. It has now lost 6.4 million subscribers over the last two quarters.
Company commentary "We’re pleased with our accomplishments this quarter, including the improved financial performance of our streaming business, which reflect the strategic changes we’ve been making throughout the company to realign Disney for sustained growth and success," Robert A. Iger, CEO of the company said in a statement. "From movies to television, to sports, news, and our theme parks, we continue to deliver for consumers, while establishing a more efficient, coordinated, and streamlined approach to our operations," he concluded. The stock was down by over -8% on Thursday, trading at around $92.66 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: -8.31% 3 months: -8.31% Year-to-date: +6.42% 1 year: -11.36% Walt Disney price targets Morgan Stanley: $120 Wells Fargo: $147 Deutsche Bank: $135 Barclays: $107 Guggenheim: $130 Citigroup: $130 JP Morgan: $135 Credit Suisse: $133 Bank of America: $135 Walt Disney is the 63 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $170.34 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Waly Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat


Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced first quarter results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest ridesharing company beat analyst expectations for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results Uber reported revenue of $8.823 billion (up by 29% vs Q1 2022) vs. $8.703 billion expected.
The company reported loss per share of -$0.08 per share vs. estimate of -$0.087 loss per share. CEO commentary "We significantly accelerated Q1 trip growth to 24% from 19% last quarter, with Mobility trip growth of 32%, as a result of improved earner and consumer engagement,” Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a letter to shareholders. "Looking ahead, we are focused on extending our product, scale and platform advantages to sustain market-leading top and bottom-line growth beyond 2023," Khosrowshahi added. The stock was up +11.55% on Tuesday at $36.53 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +16.34% 3 months: +18.07% Year-to-date: +47.67% 1 year: +23.92% Uber price targets Wedbush: $44 Needham: $54 RBC Capital: $46 Deutsche Bank: $44 JMP Securities: $55 Wolfe Research: $45 UBS: $48 JP Morgan: $52 Wells Fargo: $53 Uber is the 196 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $73.54 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 before the market open in the US on Monday. The US Beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: January 29, 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 79,000 (2021) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) Owners: Berkshire Hathaway (9.23%), The Vanguard Group (7.90%), BlackRock (6.45%) The results The company reported revenue of $10.959 billion vs. $10.797 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 5% year-over-year. EPS at $0.68 per share (up by 6% from the same period last year) vs. $0.646 per share estimate. CEO commentary ''We are encouraged by our first quarter 2023 results,'' James Quincey, CEO of company said in a press release. ''Our system alignment is stronger than ever, and our networked organization is allowing us to adapt as needed.
We continue to invest for the long term, strengthening our capabilities to drive sustainable value for our stakeholders. We have the right portfolio, the right strategy and the right execution to deliver in the marketplace. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2023 objectives,'' Quincey concluded.
The latest results did not have a massive impact on the share price on Monday. The stock was up by 0.41% at $64.25 per share. Stock performance 1 month: +4.74% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +1.02% 1 year: -2.55% The Coca-Cola Company price targets Barclays: $72 Deutsche Bank: $60 Citigroup: $68 UBS: $72 Morgan Stanley: $70 Wells Fargo: $70 Wedbush: $63 Credit Suisse: $64 HSBC: $76 The Coca-Cola Company is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $277.94 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


World’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), reported Q1 financial results after market close in the US on Wednesday. Elon Musk’s company posted mixed results for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 1, 2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of branches: 764 retail stores/galleries and service centers (2022) Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The results Tesla reported revenue that missed analyst estimate at $23.329 billion vs. $23.596 billion expected. Revenues were up by 24% compared to Q1 2022. Earnings per share reported at $0.85 per share (down by -21% year-over-year) vs. $0.846 per share estimate.
The automaker produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars in Q1, up by 44% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. Company commentary ''In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investment,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. The company also commented on its pricing strategy: ''Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.'' ''Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate.
We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale. ''We are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our Megafactory in Lathrop and we recently announced a new Megafactory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI enabled products.'' ''Our balance sheet and net income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future,'' the statement concluded.
The stock was down by -2.02% on Wednesday at $180.48 a share before the results were announced. Share price dropped by around -3% in the after-hours as investors digested the earnings report. Stock performance 1 month: -5.38% 3 months: +40.44% Year-to-date: +46.83% 1 year: -44.48% Tesla price targets RBC Capital: $217 Barclays: $230 Wedbush: $225 TD Cowen: $170 Deutsche Bank: $250 Goldman Sachs: $225 Citigroup: $192 Tesla is the 8 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $576.43 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US today. The company posted solid results beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported at $25.322 billion vs. $25.262 billion expected.
EPS reported at $2.05 per share (down by 4.8% year-over-year) vs. $1.766 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We came into the year clear-eyed about the challenges consumers are facing, and we were determined to build on the trust we've established with our guests. It's required agility and the ability to flex across our multi-category portfolio as we lean into value and the product categories our guests need most right now.
Thanks to the team's dedication, we saw an increase in guest traffic in Q1, with total sales increasing and profitability ahead of expectations," CEO of Target, Brian Cornell said in a statement. "As we look ahead, we now expect shrink will reduce this year's profitability by more than $500 million compared with last year. While there are many potential sources of inventory shrink, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly important drivers of the issue. We are making significant investments in strategies to prevent this from happening in our stores and protect our guests and our team.
We're also focused on managing the financial impact on our business so we can continue to keep our stores open, knowing they create local jobs and offer convenient access to essentials." "For the full year, we are maintaining our full-year financial guidance, based on the expected benefit from efficiency and cost-savings efforts and our team's continued focus on agility, flexibility and retail fundamentals in the face of continued challenges including inventory shrink. At the same time, we will continue making long-term investments in our stores, supply chain and our team, positioning Target for profitable growth and market-share gains in the years ahead," Cornell concluded. The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $160.17 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.76% 3 months: -8.37% Year-to-date: +8.21% 1 year: -0.20% Target price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Raymond James: $190 JP Morgan: $175 Morgan Stanley: $170 Credit Suisse: $170 Baird: $195 Cowen & Co.: $200 Piper Sandler: $220 Barclays: $163 Oppenheimer: $190 Wells Fargo: $142 Target is the 193 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.95 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia