市场资讯及洞察

热门话题据一则最新报道，谷歌公司将推迟其下一代生成式人工智能（AI）模型Gemini的首次亮相，现在将至少延期到明年1月。这一决定的幕后原因是谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊的个人担忧，主要是关于Gemini对非英语提问的反应能力不足够准确。

原计划Gemini将在本周在加利福尼亚州、纽约和华盛顿举行的一系列活动中亮相，向全世界宣布这项令人兴奋的进展。然而，两位消息人士透露，Gemini的首次亮相将要等到明年年初。这意味着谷歌在展示这一强大人工智能之前，可能还需要一些时间来优化其性能，特别是在处理非英语语言时的准确性。Gemini被描述为谷歌迄今为止研发的最强大的对话式人工智能，它是一个多模态人工智能聊天机器人，可以处理多种数据类型。根据报道，Gemini不仅可以生成原始文本，还能处理图像和其他类型的内容。它具有根据用户要求总结文本的能力，还可以协助软件工程师编写代码等任务。这使得Gemini在人工智能领域引起了广泛的期待。Gemini的全球支持是其主要特色之一，谷歌一直以来都希望它能够超越OpenAI的GPT-4模型。谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊曾在一次公开活动中表示，谷歌专注于尽快推出Gemini 1.0，并确保它是最先进且具有竞争力的人工智能。这表明Gemini不仅在技术上要超越竞争对手，还要在性能和用户体验方面取得显著优势。谷歌在今年5月的年度Innovation in the Open开发者大会上首次宣布正在开发Gemini。当时谷歌表示，新模型将展示出“令人印象深刻的多模态能力”，这在之前的任何大型模型中都从未出现过。此外，谷歌还在构建一个应用程序编程接口（API），使开发人员能够直接将Gemini集成到第三方应用程序中，为用户提供更丰富的体验。

据称，在私下测试中，Gemini的表现远远超过了GPT-4，这部分得益于谷歌云平台的更多高端人工智能加速器的支持。Gemini能够获得强大的计算能力，似乎已经准备好“将OpenAI的模型彻底击败”——这是来自研究公司SemiAnalysis在8月份的一篇博客文章的评价。Gemini的延期可能令一些期待该技术的人们感到失望，但这也表明谷歌对于其产品的质量和稳定性有着极高的要求。Gemini的推迟可能是为了更好地满足全球用户的需求，特别是在处理多语言和多模态输入时提供更为准确和高效的服务。这一举措显示了谷歌对Gemini的投入，以确保它在正式发布时能够提供令人满意的表现。目前，谷歌最先进的生成式人工智能产品名为巴德（Bard），尽管它在某些方面表现出色，但消费者对它的印象始终难以与ChatGPT等产品媲美。Gemini的推出将为谷歌提供一个更为强大、多功能的工具，有望在人工智能领域再次树立技术领先地位。总体而言，Gemini的延期显示了谷歌对于其人工智能产品的质量和用户体验的高度关注。尽管这可能会使一些人感到失望，但这也表明谷歌不愿将未完善的产品推向市场。Gemini的推迟有望为谷歌提供更多时间，以确保其在正式亮相时能够以最佳状态面向全球用户。那么作为投资者的你，觉得谷歌推迟Gemini的发布会对它的股价造成怎样的影响呢？无论您是看涨还是看跌，我们Go Markets提供灵活的双向交易并且开放了热门美股的盘前盘后交易，让您把握住每一次交易机会。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neal Shao | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题本周金融消息虽没有上周那样密集，但澳联储利率决议，澳洲GDP修正值，美国大小非农数据，美国最新失业率都是较为重要的足以影响市场走向的数据。美股股指已经连涨5周，道指突破了前浪尖压力，直冲牛市前高。而纳指和标普均处于前浪尖强压位置，并没有实现突破。在这样的市场背景下，12月首周走出回调变得很合理，这也是许多分析师担心市场短期震荡回落的理由。

新的一周，澳联储基本被预期为保持原有利率不加息，因为刚刚公布的通胀数据超预期回落，新西兰也刚刚在利率决议中维持了现有利率，特别是美国方面，市场甚至已经把降息提上了日程，有分析师大胆预测明年上半年美联储将降息6次。尽管这有些夸张，周五鲍威尔也否认了近期降息的可能性，FedWatch工具也把短暂的降息预期去掉了。综合上述消息，本周前半周美股继续上行还是有一定希望的，换言之纳指标普是有希望突破前浪尖的，但后半周非农预期17.5万的数值不一定能够实现，可能会利空股市，所以股指就算周线收阴也是合情合理。总之目前美国市场前景较为稳定，有利于股市上行。澳股利率决议大概率能稳定股市，但GDP预期回落至1.8%远不及美国，实体经济方面的担忧令澳指难以强势上冲。特别是在大宗商品和能源整体走弱的前提下，澳股短期是较为艰难的。

本周事件方面，AMD宣布将举办AI特别活动，蔚来，游戏驿站，C3等公司将发布财报。周一美国10月耐用品订单月率及工厂订单月率不足以左右市场，各项经济数据较为平淡。周二澳联储利率决议值得重点关注。蔚来Q3财报将在港股盘后发布，分析师预计蔚来2023年三季度营收194.03亿元，同比增长49.2%。周三美国将公布11月ADP就业人数，10月贸易帐，当周API原油库存以及当周EIA原油库存。财报方面，游戏驿站和C3将在美东时间12月6日盘后公布业绩。周四美国将公布当周初请失业金人数，当周EIA天然气库存，也是常规数据，不足以形成对市场的冲击。事件方面，美国超微公司AMD将在该日举办AI特别活动。名为Advancing AI的现场直播活动强调了该公司与AI硬件和软件合作伙伴们的发展势头。AMD董事会主席兼首席执行官苏姿丰博士将携手其他AMD高管，AI生态系统合作伙伴和客户共同探讨AMD产品和软件将如何重塑AI和自适应高性能计算领域。周五的经济数据方面则是本周最为关键的，美国11月季调后非农就业人口和11月失业率，还有12月一年期通胀率预期将于今日公布。特别是非农数据将左右当晚美股走向，在上周PCE和GDP修正值数据的基础上，共同为12月行情定下基调。市场预计美国11月失业率稳定在3.9%，非农就业人数从10月份的15万人增加到11月份的17.5万人。目前，3.9%的失业率和非农就业人数的略微加速不太可能动摇市场对美联储在明年降息的预期，因此数据的影响偏向短期而非中期。美联储喉舌Nick Timiraos此前撰文指出，由于劳动力市场放缓，如果11月非农数据低于预期，将进一步强化美联储停止加息的确定性，且非农就业下行速度也将预示联储开启降息的时点，只可惜非农预测值仅17.5万，届时数据能够低于预期还是很有难度的。

另外本周几大重要产品的走向也十分值得关注。首先是黄金，周五收盘后冲上了2070平台，几乎复制了上一次黄金从2000平台直接冲上2080的记录。而在目前的金价平台，多空在短线都是风险较高的。看空美元的中期走势目前正在被验证，美元指数也从106回到了103平台，但随着GDP强势以及国债收益率连跌一个月后，美元短期的下行空间在变小。另外原油在欧佩克+减产消息公布后迅速被市场消化，美国能源部进一步扩大原油回购短期或令油价处于宽幅震荡周期中，整体来讲油价是逢高做空的胜率更高一些。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

The WTI Crude Oil market is in an interesting spot on the charts, hitting a 10-month high in Wednesday's session. This strong performance comes after repeatedly testing and holding the $66-67 support level, resulting in an impressive climb of over 30% since the beginning of July. Having broken through a significant resistance level around $82 that had been tested 7 times since December 2022, the price now faces a couple of technical hurdles ahead.

Currently hovering just below $89 at a first resistance challenge, it's a potential pit stop where we might see a temporary pause or even a reversal if the momentum takes a breather. Should the momentum continue, the path to a critical resistance level at around $93 becomes relatively clear. This level proved resilient in two prior attempts to breach it back in October and November 2022, making it a level to keep an eye on for traders.

Taking a look at the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), it's currently in overbought territory, suggesting there could be room for a cool off. There is potential for a retracement back to the $81-82 level, where we’ll be watching to see if that resistance zone flips to support. Alternatively, if the current momentum continues, the initial resistance level may fail, giving some clean air to run up to the $93 zone.

In a bit of an anti-climax in an exciting week in Central Bank action for FX traders today saw the BoJ keep the status quo of an ultra-accommodative monetary policy as expected. But disappointing the Yen bulls was the BoJ offering no clear sign of a shift in its policy stance in the near term after some speculation a clearer hint to normalization of policy could be given at this meeting. This saw re-positioning in USDJPY putting pressure on the yen and spiking the USDJPY higher into the intervention zone where the Japanese Ministry of Finance forcefully entered the FX market late in 2022.

This is setting up as a real game of chicken between the markets and the Bank of Japan, with policy BoJ policy on hold for the foreseeable future, the grind higher in USDJPY seems inevitable while rate differentials between US10Y and JP10Y yields also continue to rise. The close relationship between this differential and USDJPY can be seen on the following chart. Without a change in rates policy, FX intervention is looking like it may be the only way for this trend to change course and with comments like the below from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki today we may see it sooner rather than later.

US markets took a big hit overnight after a mixed bag of earnings were released from the tech sector. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, took a 9.5 percent hit in yesterday’s session after releasing some disappointing earnings numbers on their cloud computing business. The $1.5+ trillion company has enough weight to pull down the indices with a move like this, and we saw the Nasdaq fall close to 2.5%, and the S&P 500 fall 1.43%.

This sell-off has landed the S&P 500 heavily into a horizontal support zone around 4,170-4,200, so we will be watching to see if this level can hold. If this falls, there is a bit of room to the next level around 4,060-4,080. Over in FX, the Aussie dollar saw plenty of volatility in yesterday’s session off the back of hotter than expected CPI data.

After a temporary spike up to 63.991, price has fallen away aggressively, down over 1.4% since yesterday’s highs. US dollar strength cleared any CPI gains, after markets shifted back into risk-off mode with the disappointing tech earnings and escalating tensions in the middle east. Later today we will have some US GDP data out, plus the ECB is releasing their latest interest rate decision.

Both key data events are worth monitoring for USD or EUR pairs.

The S&P 500 index is currently teetering on the edge, desperately holding onto a crucial support level. This level has proven its resilience with two prior bounces, so traders are keeping a close eye on whether it can endure the pressure once more. After enduring four consecutive red days, there was a sigh of relief overnight as the market managed to post a green day, coinciding with the critical support level.

The broader picture reveals a challenging September for the S&P 500, with a monthly decline so far of 3.78%, following August's 1.77% drop. Lingering concerns of an impending recession, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period, have been the driving forces behind this recent downturn. Monday's bounce brought some respite, suggesting that investors might be regaining their composure after several days of selloffs.

From a technical standpoint, the current support level is important. Should it fail to hold, the index could potentially see a further decline of 2-3%, targeting the next horizontal support level. Interestingly, there is another layer of support not far below the current horizontal level in the form of a diagonal support line.

This diagonal support line could be something for traders to watch, as it could act as a potential area of activity if the horizontal level falls.