市场资讯及洞察

热门话题讽刺的是，巴菲特作为享誉世界的主动型投资管理公司哈撒韦伯克希尔的创始人，却是不厌其烦的向个人和中小型投资者推荐被动型的标普500指数基金，甚至是给第二任妻子的遗嘱中都要求90%的资金进行配置。最有名的故事当属2007年末的“世纪赌约”，当时巴菲特宣布，一只低成本的标普500指数基金将在十年时间里战胜任何对冲基金组合，赌注100万美元。最后，一位名叫塞德斯(Ted Seides)的对冲基金经理应战，按照约定，其选择了五只基金中基金（FOF）的组合，总共包含的投资超过100只对冲基金。时间就这样过了十年，标普500指数基金以125.8%的总收益和8.5%平均年化收益率完胜对冲基金，后者的回报仅为22%总收益和可怜的2.2%年化率，而且在除去2008年后的九年时间里每一年，对冲基金都败给了标普500指数基金。

事后巴菲特曾说：“长期看，确实有部分有经验的人能超过标普500指数的表现。然而在我的一生里，我也就提前判断出10位左右的专业人士。其实巴菲特数次谈论指数基金，可以回溯到2004年、2003年、1996年和1993年等的致股东信中。他分别提到“大部分投资者，包括机构投资者和个人投资者，早晚会发现最好的投资股票方法是购买管理费很低的指数基金。”“一个什么都不懂的业余投资者竟然往往能够战胜大部分专业投资者。奇怪得很，当傻钱知道自己的缺陷时，它就不再是傻钱了。”“但是，如果你是稍有常识的投资人，对商业有基本了解的话，你应该能够找出5到10家股价合理且具备长期竞争优势的企业。此时分散投资理论对你就毫无意义了，它反而会损害你的投资成果并增加你的风险。”“我实在无法理解一名投资人为什么要把资金投向了解和熟悉程度是第20名的企业，而不是集中在前面几名最熟悉、性价比最高的投资上。”所以，如果您真的觉得一定还有挖掘优质股票的必要，那我们可以列出今年美股的TOP3，基于当前与未来的人工智能、生物医药和新能源汽车技术增长点。纯属个人偏见，如有雷同，实为巧合。第一名：NVDA英伟达作为2023年的AI龙头，当选第一名应该当之无愧。其借助人工智能的热潮，进入为数几家的万亿美元市值俱乐部，毫不夸张的说是美股今年升势的发动机。在目前AI芯片的几乎垄断加持下，英伟达遥遥甩开了第二名的AMD，巩固了半导体行业的王者地位。短期风险点在于美国政府对华芯片限制法规可能对公司的影响。10月份高盛将英伟达列入“强烈买入”评级，认为目前市场仍然低估了其股价，2024财年收入将持续增长。根据Reuters统计，当前NVDA的中位预测价格为605美元，当前价格452美元。

第二名：LLY礼来公司实为一家百年老店，目前主营糖尿病药物，近5000亿美元的市值目前已经成为药企巨头的天花板。公司股价2018之后开始进入快车道，五年时间涨幅约459%。今年的热点在于减肥药的风靡，其作为与诺和诺德一同赛道的双寡头，也备受资本青睐。另外，公司逐步布局阿尔兹海默药市场，后市增长可期。短期风险点在于处于热潮中的GLP-1药物产生的副作用影响报道。10月份杰富瑞银行将礼来的目标价上调至625美元，美银则将礼来的目标价从600美元上调至700美元，当前价格为571美元。

第三名：TSLA特斯拉长期占据美股交易额第一名，盘中活跃，与其创始人毁誉参半的风格一般，是最不缺粉丝与黑粉的明星股，当属短线交易者的冲浪天堂。若看历史长期回报率，特斯拉也是绝对的翘楚，五年时间涨幅约2000%。今年的AI热点下，特斯拉借助自动驾驶和Doji超级计算机等技术，也在新能源汽车赛道与人工智能公司之间游走。9月中旬，大摩看好其超算业务，重申特斯拉为“增持”评级，目标价位400美元。仅仅一周后，高盛分析师唱空特斯拉，称降价策略可能明年继续带来毛利损害，保持“中性”评级，12个月目标价位275美元。当前价格为259美元。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jack Lin | GO Markets 新锐分析师

热门话题众所周知，上周日巴勒斯坦和以色列之间爆发了激烈的冲突。作为金融券商，我们的文章和评论尽量保持在市场和产品上。但是，毫无疑问，我们希望战争可以尽快停止，因为影响最大的还是两国和周边的百姓。

在谈论今天的话题之前，我们可以简单说一下以色列和盘踞在加沙地带的伊斯兰抵抗运动哈马斯的实力和背景。相信大家从这几天的文章和新闻里应该知道，目前的巴勒斯坦主要居民和各种抵抗运动，几乎都盘踞在只有4万平方公里的区域里，在这个区域里，水，电，燃料和几乎大部分成年人的工作，都依靠着以色列来提供。虽然巴以两国在过去几十年一直不断爆发冲突，但是毫无疑问，如果没有外界的帮助，哈马斯没有能力，也没有财力发动这么大规模的袭击。而且他们清楚地知道，在发射5000枚火箭弹和这么大规模的袭击后，将会迎来以色列猛烈的报复。但是为什么明知道会有巨大的报复，却还要一意孤行呢？毫无疑问，哈马斯和这次袭击背后的势力达成了某种桌下协议。如果我们从金融市场的变化来看，什么产品受到这次战争影响最大？那就是能源类产品，尤其是石油和天然气。

虽然以色列和巴勒斯坦都不是产油国，但是因为这次冲突，让原本计划好的事都泡汤了。我来给大家简单猜测一下大背景：我们知道从今年开始，美国从美联储到拜登政府，都在使用各种手段试图控制和缓和高涨的通胀。那么在通胀的统计中，一个重要因素就是交通开支，而美国由于民众普遍是以私家车作为出行工具，因此油价的高低会相当程度上影响民众手里的可支配收入。而假设美国国内的石油需求量保持稳定，那只有在石油的供应量上增加，才能导致最终价格的下跌。那要如何才能让石油的供应量上升呢？这其中自然就离不开以沙特领导的石油输出组织OPEC的支持。为了赢得沙特的支持，美国在过去12个月提供了各种优惠，但是其中最主要的两点就是：1.美国承诺继续保证沙特的国家安全。2. 美国默许沙特和伊朗这两个一直以来的仇敌建交。以及更重要的3. 美国做了以色列和沙特两边大量的工作，让这两个宗教上势如水火的国家之间准备开始建立外交关系，不再敌对和仇视。以换取沙特同意在石油产量上提高，帮助美国把通胀压下去。这个背景介绍相当重要。但是上周末巴勒斯坦对以色列的袭击，逼得作为阿拉伯世界领导的沙特出来表态，支持巴勒斯坦民众争取自己的合理权利。这样一来就直接得罪了以色列，也让即将开始准备建交的两国协议暂时泡汤。而作为全力支持以色列的美国，又必须表态支持以色列，这样一来让美国与阿拉伯世界关系也会紧张。那问题就来了，原本按计划沙特与以色列建交，沙特与伊朗建交之后，OPEC组织就会有序开始增产石油，帮助石油价格回落以控制通胀。如今战事一开，所有的计划泡汤。那原本说好的石油增产计划也就没戏了。这样一来，油价很有可能在未来一段时间都保持高位。那美国那边原本计划好的控制通胀的努力机会大打折扣。

通胀如果压不下去，大家猜会怎么办？那只能继续再加息。当然，现在从油价上涨这个结果来反推的话，得益方毫无疑问是产油国，包括伊朗和俄罗斯。而油价的上涨，对于急于要控制通货膨胀的美国，欧洲和澳洲而言，无疑不是个好消息。所以，结论是什么？答案很明显：美国和西方其他国家的通货膨胀很有可能会反弹，因此未来美元的加息将会导致美元继续走强，而非产油国的货币和美元相比将会继续走弱。尤其是澳元。铁矿石，中国经济，美元强弱。这三个影响澳元走势的最大因素里，如果出现两个因素不利于澳元，那你说，澳元会怎么走呢？石油价格的上涨，对于澳洲有房贷的朋友来说绝对不是个好消息。因为通胀的反弹，就意味着继续加息的可能不断加大。而澳洲目前的标准银行利息依然低于美国，因此从长期来看，澳元的弱势不会结束。美元，将会在很长一段时间里继续走强。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Gold has always been one of the most popular and highly traded markets for CFD traders, especially recently as its price has risen to test its all-time highs. It’s easy to see why, Gold has been a store of value throughout history and now with institutional grade spreads and zero commission there has never been a better time for GO Markets clients to trade this exciting market. At GO Markets we offer our clients the world’s most popular gold trading platforms in Metatrader 4/5 and C-Trader, as well as ultra-fast execution for manual traders these CFD trading platforms also give you the ability to automate gold trading strategies.

Advantages of trading gold CFDs with GO Markets: Institutional grade spreads and ZERO commission for all account types. Trade 23 hours a day, unlike an ETF or gold miner listed on a stock exchange that is only open while that stock exchange is open. Leverage – from 20:1 to 500:1 depending on your account type.

Flexibility in position sizing starting from 0.01 lots. Fundamental forces that drive the price of gold While no one reason can be fully attributed to movements in the price of gold, there are an important few fundamental drivers that will influence the price of gold and whose relationship has been time tested. None of these on their own should be used as a sole reason to enter a position, but having the fundamentals on your side will certainly give you an advantage.

The main fundamental drivers in my experience are (not an exhaustive list by any means!) The gold price relationship to US bond yields Safe haven flows Central Bank buying Real Yields and Gold The inverse relationship between bond yields and the price of gold is well established, especially the real yield on the US 10-year bond. The reason for this mainly is because the real yield (the real yield is calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the actual yield of the US 10-year government bond) is seen as the “risk free” rate on an investment, the higher the “risk free” rate is, the less attractive a non-yield paying asset like gold is. As both gold and bonds are seen as safe havens, they are competing for the same investors.

See the screenshot below to illustrate this point. Source: longtermtrends.net The gold line is the price of gold, the black line is the inverted real yield of 10-year treasuries. This chart stretches back 16 years, but the close relationship has gone back much longer than that.

This chart is showing that historically, gold is expensive at the moment as compared to real yields as can be seen by the growing gap between the two recently, this interesting decoupling has been mainly caused by our second fundamental driver – safe haven flows. Safe Haven Flows Geopolitical strife with war in Ukraine and doubts over the health of the global economy got things started with the surge we have seen in gold prices in the last 5 months, but things went into overdrive in March 2023 when Signature bank and Credit Suisse collapsed, bring into question the integrity of the banking system and massive safe haven flows into gold which has pushed the price to within touching distance of hitting all-time highs. With the banking crisis seemingly under control (for now maybe?) gold has lost some momentum, but the fact it is holding around these elevated prices indicates some investors may not think the crisis is over just yet.

Central Bank Buying Central banks are some of the biggest buyers of gold on the open market, and 2022 saw the most central bank buying of gold on record. Whatever the reasons for this, such massive amounts of buying would be seen as a bullish sign for the gold price (if it continues). GO Markets clients also have access to Trading Central which automatically detects technical set ups for our traders to add to their decision making.

Trading Central can be accessed by account holders through their Client Portal. Trading Central Pattern example below: Feel free to contact the GO Markets team if you have any questions on trading gold CFDs.

World’s largest entertainment company The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) announced second quarter financial results ended April 1, 2023, after the market close on Wall Street on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob Iger (CEO) The results Walt Disney reported revenue of $21.815 billion for the quarter vs. $21.795 billion expected. Revenues were up by 13% vs. same period last year.

Earnings per share fell slightly short of expectations at $0.93 per share (down by 14% year-over-year) vs. $0.933 per share estimate. Disney+ subscribers fell from 161.8 million to 157.8 million in the quarter. It has now lost 6.4 million subscribers over the last two quarters.

Company commentary "We’re pleased with our accomplishments this quarter, including the improved financial performance of our streaming business, which reflect the strategic changes we’ve been making throughout the company to realign Disney for sustained growth and success," Robert A. Iger, CEO of the company said in a statement. "From movies to television, to sports, news, and our theme parks, we continue to deliver for consumers, while establishing a more efficient, coordinated, and streamlined approach to our operations," he concluded. The stock was down by over -8% on Thursday, trading at around $92.66 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: -8.31% 3 months: -8.31% Year-to-date: +6.42% 1 year: -11.36% Walt Disney price targets Morgan Stanley: $120 Wells Fargo: $147 Deutsche Bank: $135 Barclays: $107 Guggenheim: $130 Citigroup: $130 JP Morgan: $135 Credit Suisse: $133 Bank of America: $135 Walt Disney is the 63 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $170.34 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Waly Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat

Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced first quarter results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest ridesharing company beat analyst expectations for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results Uber reported revenue of $8.823 billion (up by 29% vs Q1 2022) vs. $8.703 billion expected.

The company reported loss per share of -$0.08 per share vs. estimate of -$0.087 loss per share. CEO commentary "We significantly accelerated Q1 trip growth to 24% from 19% last quarter, with Mobility trip growth of 32%, as a result of improved earner and consumer engagement,” Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a letter to shareholders. "Looking ahead, we are focused on extending our product, scale and platform advantages to sustain market-leading top and bottom-line growth beyond 2023," Khosrowshahi added. The stock was up +11.55% on Tuesday at $36.53 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +16.34% 3 months: +18.07% Year-to-date: +47.67% 1 year: +23.92% Uber price targets Wedbush: $44 Needham: $54 RBC Capital: $46 Deutsche Bank: $44 JMP Securities: $55 Wolfe Research: $45 UBS: $48 JP Morgan: $52 Wells Fargo: $53 Uber is the 196 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $73.54 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 before the market open in the US on Monday. The US Beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: January 29, 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 79,000 (2021) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) Owners: Berkshire Hathaway (9.23%), The Vanguard Group (7.90%), BlackRock (6.45%) The results The company reported revenue of $10.959 billion vs. $10.797 billion expected.

Revenues were up by 5% year-over-year. EPS at $0.68 per share (up by 6% from the same period last year) vs. $0.646 per share estimate. CEO commentary ''We are encouraged by our first quarter 2023 results,'' James Quincey, CEO of company said in a press release. ''Our system alignment is stronger than ever, and our networked organization is allowing us to adapt as needed.

We continue to invest for the long term, strengthening our capabilities to drive sustainable value for our stakeholders. We have the right portfolio, the right strategy and the right execution to deliver in the marketplace. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2023 objectives,'' Quincey concluded.

The latest results did not have a massive impact on the share price on Monday. The stock was up by 0.41% at $64.25 per share. Stock performance 1 month: +4.74% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +1.02% 1 year: -2.55% The Coca-Cola Company price targets Barclays: $72 Deutsche Bank: $60 Citigroup: $68 UBS: $72 Morgan Stanley: $70 Wells Fargo: $70 Wedbush: $63 Credit Suisse: $64 HSBC: $76 The Coca-Cola Company is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $277.94 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia