市场资讯及洞察

The NZDUSD has been on a decline since the start of February 2023, with the price reversing strongly from the high of 0.6540 ending the previous week bouncing off the 200-day moving average and previous swing low price level of 0.6190. This week, we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) due to release their interest rate decision. Current annual inflation in New Zealand stands at a three-decade high of 7.2%, while the quarter-on-quarter data released in January signaled slightly higher than expected CPI growth at 1.4% (Forecast: 1.3%).

This has led the market to anticipate that the RBNZ is likely to hike rates by 50bps, taking rates from 4.25% to 4.75%. If the RBNZ does increase rates by 50bps as expected, this is likely to further strengthen the New Zealand dollar, especially as the NZDUSD had found strong support along the 200-day moving average on Friday. In addition to the interest rate decision possibly driving prices higher, price action on the NZDUSD has also formed a Bullish Regular Divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the support level, indicating a further likelihood for the NZDUSD to stage a reversal, to trade higher.

However, for a sustained move to the upside, the price of the NZDUSD would have to break above the near-term resistance area at 0.6270, which also aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Look for the NZDUSD to rise toward the key resistance and round number level of 0.64, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

After 10 hikes on the trot and what will no doubt be a relief for mortgage holders the RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. The rate decision was fully priced in by the futures markets, so no great surprise on the actual decision, it’s the accompanying statement where investors look for clues as to future RBA actions that will set the short to mid-term tone of the FX and Equity markets. The statement did leave the door open for further rate hikes with the line “further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target” indicating to the market to not take for granted that Australian rates have peaked just yet.

Though there was a subtle word change from the previous March statement which traders saw as a dovish sign. Tha March statement said “ will be needed” which has change to “ may well be needed” A small difference, but a huge clue in the arcane skill of deciphering Central Bank communications. The AUDUSD behaved fairly predictably, a knee jerk drop on the actual rate announcement, followed by a step retrace as the machines and humans took few seconds to decide whether the statement was hawkish or not, before deciding on the “not” and seeing the AUDUSD resume its downtrend.

The ASX 200 index saw a mirror reaction to the AUD with the difference being the initial spike was not retraced, showing that equity traders were happy with the RBA taking their foot off the accelerator, even if it just temporary. One thing to remember that the AUD normally trades as a proxy for global growth risk, ebbing and flowing on risk sentiment any moves from this decision could be short lived as other market forces take over.

World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.

EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.

Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.

The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.

Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.

Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) announced Q4 and full-year earnings results on Wednesday. World’s second largest sporting goods company reported revenue of $2.772 billion for the quarter (up by 30% year-over-year or 33% on a constant currency basis) vs. $2.701 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst expectations at $4.40 per share (up by 30.5% year-over-year) vs. $4.259 per share expected.

Full-year revenue reported at $8.1 billion (up by 30% vs. 2021), EPS at $10.07 per share. Lululemon expects revenue of $1.890 billion to $1.930 billion for Q1. EPS expected to be between $1.93 to $2.00 for the quarter.

CEO and CFO commentary "In the fourth quarter and full year 2022, we delivered strong results across the business driven by our innovative products, powerful guest experiences, and strategic market expansion. Our continued high level of performance is a reflection of the hard work and agility of our incredible teams and the deep connections they create with our guests and communities around the world. As we enter 2023, we look forward to another year of strong momentum across the globe and delivering on our Power of Three ×2 growth plan," Calvin McDonald, CEO of the company said in a press release.

Meghan Frank, CFO of Lululemon also commented on the latest results and delivering for its shareholders: "We are pleased with our performance in the fourth quarter, which remained balanced across product category, channel, and regions. Our ability to exceed our annual revenue target in a dynamic operating environment is a testament to the enduring strength of the lululemon brand. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic regarding our ability to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for all our stakeholders." The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price.

Shares were up by +12.72% at the end the trading session on Wednesday at $360.87 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.66% 3 months: +16.86% Year-to-date: +12.69% 1 year: -4.21% Lululemon price targets TD Cowen: $500 Baird: $425 B of A Securities: $410 BMO Capital: $340 Credit Suisse: $420 Stifel: $460 Wells Fargo: $425 Guggenheim: $440 Citigroup: $440 Telsey Advisory Group: $425 Keybanc: $390 Barclays: $368 JP Morgan: $430 Lululemon athletica inc. is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $46.03 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Lululemon athletica inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US on Friday. The largest bank in the US beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the first quarter of 2023, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $38.349 billion vs. forecast of $36.125 billion.

EPS reported at $4.10 per share vs. $3.414 per share expected. CEO commentary ''Our lines of business saw continued momentum in the quarter. In Consumer & Community Banking, consumer spending remained healthy with combined debit and credit card sales up 10% and card loans up 21%.

In the Corporate & Investment Bank, Markets revenue fell 4% versus a very strong prior year, and we focused on supporting clients as they navigated volatile market conditions. Global Investment Banking fees remained challenged for the industry, although we significantly outperformed the overall wallet. In Commercial Banking, we earned record revenue, with exceptionally strong Payments revenue, up 98%.

Finally, Asset & Wealth Management performed well with strong long-term inflows of $47 billion across products,'' JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also touched on the state of the US and global economy: ''The U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings —consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape. However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks.

The banking situation is distinct from 2008 as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending. We also continue to monitor for potentially higher inflation for longer (and thus higher interest rates), the inflationary impact of continued fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented quantitative tightening, and geopolitical tensions including relations with China and the unpredictable war in Ukraine. While we hope these clouds will dissipate, the Firm is prepared for a broad range of outcomes, and we are confident that we can serve the needs of our customers and clients in all environments.'' ''Finally, I want to recognize our outstanding employees across the globe.

Thanks to their efforts, we extended credit and raised $588 billion in capital in the quarter for small and large businesses, governments, and U.S. consumers, as well as efficiently onboarded a significant amount of new clients across many of our businesses,'' Dimon concluded. The stock rose after beating Wall Street expectations. Shares were up by 7.55% at the end of the trading day on Friday at $138.71 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +10.27% 3 months: -2.99% Year-to-date: +3.45% 1 year: +10.00% JP Morgan Chase & Co. price targets Barclays: $179 Evercore ISI Group: $146 Morgan Stanley: $153 RBC Capital: $132 Oppenheimer: $157 Wells Fargo: $155 Morgan Stanley: $173 Piper Sandler: $157 Deutsche Bank: $145 Barclays: $189 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $406.68 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap