市场资讯及洞察

澳大利亚证券交易所国防股重返更多关注名单,根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)的数据,2024年全球军费开支达到约2.718万亿美元,按实际价值计算增长9.4%。
澳大利亚目前的国防环境载于2024年国防战略和相关的投资规划文件,这些文件概述了长期能力融资的优先事项。此外,堪培拉指出,到2034年,将有3300亿澳元的能力投资,包括为水面作战人员、备战、远程打击和自主系统增加资金。
这是大多数人错过的部分:并非所有的澳大利亚证券交易所国防股票都是一样的交易。有些位于海军造船厂附近。有些是反无人机的名称,有些是规模较小、风险较高的运营商,其中一份合约可能比市场假设的要重要得多。

澳大利亚交易者现在正在问的5个波动性问题
这五个名字不是买入清单,相反,对于试图了解澳大利亚证券交易所实际采购势头可能出现在何处的投资者来说,它们是一个实用的观察清单。
1) Austal (ASX: ASB)
尽管合同执行、利润率和交付时间仍然是重要的变量,但Austal是最直接受澳大利亚海军造船管道影响的澳交所上市公司之一。
他们不只是随机赢得合同;他们签署了一项大规模的法律协议(战略造船协议),这使他们成为在西澳大利亚建造澳大利亚下一代中型军舰的官方合作伙伴。
2026年2月,政府为奥斯塔尔一项耗资40亿美元的项目开了绿灯。这不仅适用于一艘飞船,还适用于8艘重型登陆艇。这些是大型运输船(长约100米),旨在将重型坦克和装备直接运送到海滩上。但这是大多数人错过的部分,造船是一场马拉松,不是短跑。
正如你在交付时间表中看到的那样,虽然施工于2026年开始,但最后一艘船要到2038年才能交付。对于投资者来说,这意味着Austal在未来12年中拥有 “有保障” 的收入来源,但他们必须非常擅长在这段时间内管理成本才能真正获利。
2) DroneShield (ASX: DRO)
如果你看过小型无人机扰乱现代战场的镜头,那么 DroneShield 正在建造 “关闭开关” 的一部分。其重点是反无人机技术,包括使用电子战、传感器和软件主导的工具来检测、破坏或击败无人机的系统,而不仅仅依赖传统弹药。
到2026年初,DroneShield已经摆脱了前景光明的初创公司的标签,进入了更大的商业阶段。该公司报告称,FY2025 收入为2.165亿澳元,比 FY2024 增长276%,并表示其在 FY2026 之初的承诺收入为1.035亿澳元。
市场可能忽略的一点是模型中的软件层。DroneShield报告称,FY2025 的软件即服务(SaaS)收入为1160万澳元,并表示正在努力使SaaS在五年内占收入的30%。其订阅模式包括已部署系统的软件更新,除了硬件销售外,还增加了不断增长的经常性收入。
在澳大利亚证券交易所的国防股票中,DroneShield是遵循反美国主题的最直接方式之一。它也是市场情绪可以快速波动的名字之一,因为当订单时机发生变化时,增长故事可以向上和向下重新评级。
值得关注的国防股:伊朗战争的赢家和输家
3) 电子光学系统 (ASX: EOS)
EOS 为军事平台构建 “大脑” 和 “肌肉”。它最出名的是远程武器系统,允许操作员从防护车辆内部控制武装炮塔,以及用于反无人机防御的高能激光系统。EOS表示,在2025年之前赢得了一系列合同之后,其无条件的积压订单在2026年初达到约4.591亿澳元。尽管交付时间和收入转换仍然很重要,但这表明安全工作的基础要大得多。
EOS与一家欧洲客户签署了7140万欧元(约合1.25亿澳元)的合同,购买一套100千瓦的高能激光武器系统。EOS表示,该系统旨在降低每次射击的成本,每分钟最多可以与20架无人机交战。澳大利亚政府已在10年内拨出13亿澳元用于反无人机能力的收购,EOS透露它是成功的LAND 156竞标小组的一员。这并不能保证未来的收入,但确实支持了该公司已经瞄准的市场的中期知名度。
EOS 读起来是一个反弹故事,但仍然取决于执行力。该公司已围绕远程武器系统、反无人机系统和激光器调整了方向,所有这些领域都与增加国防开支有关。关键问题是,它能否在保持资产负债表纪律的同时,继续将待办事项和渠道转化为已交付的收入。
4) Codan(澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码:CDA)
Codan有时会被排除在临时国防股票清单之外,因为它更加多样化。这可能是一个疏忽。Codan在其26财年上半年的业绩中表示,其通信业务为全球军事和公共安全市场设计关键任务通信。通信收入增长了19%,达到2.218亿澳元。该公司还表示,DTC实现了国防和无人系统需求的强劲增长,无人系统收入增长了68%,达到7300万澳元。科丹说,无人驾驶收入中约有一半与冲突地区的作战国防应用有关。
这就是故事变得更加细致入微的地方。在澳大利亚证券交易所的一揽子国防股票中,Codan可能提供不同的概况,不那么纯粹的标题敏感度,更广泛的业务多元化,对军事通信和无人系统的投资有意义,但不是一个单一主题的名称。这种多元化也可能意味着股票的交易并不总是像纯粹的防御名字。
油价上涨对埃克森、雪佛龙和伍德赛德可能意味着什么
5) HighCom(澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码:HCL)
HighCom在这份清单中处于推测性的一端,应该这样给它贴上标签。该公司表示,其两项持续业务是提供弹道防护的HighCom Armor和HighCom Technology,该公司为澳大利亚国防军和其他结盟的地区军队提供和维护中小型无人驾驶航空系统、反无人驾驶航空系统以及相关的工程、集成、维护和后勤支持。
在26财年上半年,持续经营业务收入下降了59%,至1,090万澳元,而息税折旧摊销前利润从去年同期的190万澳元利润转为亏损540万澳元。HighCom还披露了HighCom Technology的510万澳元收入,其中包括来自小型无人驾驶航空系统(SUAS)备件的350万澳元和来自向澳大利亚国防部提供的维持服务的160万澳元。
因此,是的,HighCom是董事会中财务敏感度最高的澳大利亚证券交易所国防股票之一。但是,它也是一个较小的名称,可以说明采购是如何渗透到支持、维持和专业防护装备的。
主要市场观察
- 追踪计划里程碑,而不仅仅是政治头条。合同授予、生产开工、交付时间表和维护工作通常比单一的公告日更重要。
- 将纯粹的曝光与多样化的曝光分开。DroneShield和EOS更接近于集中的国防技术主题,而Codan则在更广泛的业务组合中带来了通信曝光度。
- 观看澳大利亚的主权能力主题。Austal和EOS与本地制造、整合和澳大利亚供应链息息相关,这为该集团更广泛的主权能力主题提供了支持。
- 注意资产负债表和现金转换。即使时机变得混乱,采购势头也可能是真实存在的。HighCom的最新半场让人想起了这一点。
全球波动和差价合约:地缘政治冲击后如何交易
风险和制约因素
国防头条新闻可以立竿见影。收入通常不是。奥斯塔尔的主要海军工作将持续到未来十年。EOS 合约的交付期为多年。DroneShield的订单流似乎强劲,但该公司仍将承诺收入与更广泛的渠道机会区分开来。HighCom展示了硬币的另一面。采购风险不会自动转化为顺利的财务执行。
提及在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的国防股票仅为一般信息,不建议买入、卖出或持有任何证券或差价合约。这些股票可能波动很大,对合约时机、政府政策、地缘政治、执行风险和市场状况很敏感。待办事项、渠道和收入预期并不能保证未来的业绩。
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World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.
Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.
The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.
Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.


Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) announced Q4 and full-year earnings results on Wednesday. World’s second largest sporting goods company reported revenue of $2.772 billion for the quarter (up by 30% year-over-year or 33% on a constant currency basis) vs. $2.701 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst expectations at $4.40 per share (up by 30.5% year-over-year) vs. $4.259 per share expected.
Full-year revenue reported at $8.1 billion (up by 30% vs. 2021), EPS at $10.07 per share. Lululemon expects revenue of $1.890 billion to $1.930 billion for Q1. EPS expected to be between $1.93 to $2.00 for the quarter.
CEO and CFO commentary "In the fourth quarter and full year 2022, we delivered strong results across the business driven by our innovative products, powerful guest experiences, and strategic market expansion. Our continued high level of performance is a reflection of the hard work and agility of our incredible teams and the deep connections they create with our guests and communities around the world. As we enter 2023, we look forward to another year of strong momentum across the globe and delivering on our Power of Three ×2 growth plan," Calvin McDonald, CEO of the company said in a press release.
Meghan Frank, CFO of Lululemon also commented on the latest results and delivering for its shareholders: "We are pleased with our performance in the fourth quarter, which remained balanced across product category, channel, and regions. Our ability to exceed our annual revenue target in a dynamic operating environment is a testament to the enduring strength of the lululemon brand. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic regarding our ability to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for all our stakeholders." The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price.
Shares were up by +12.72% at the end the trading session on Wednesday at $360.87 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.66% 3 months: +16.86% Year-to-date: +12.69% 1 year: -4.21% Lululemon price targets TD Cowen: $500 Baird: $425 B of A Securities: $410 BMO Capital: $340 Credit Suisse: $420 Stifel: $460 Wells Fargo: $425 Guggenheim: $440 Citigroup: $440 Telsey Advisory Group: $425 Keybanc: $390 Barclays: $368 JP Morgan: $430 Lululemon athletica inc. is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $46.03 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Lululemon athletica inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US on Friday. The largest bank in the US beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the first quarter of 2023, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $38.349 billion vs. forecast of $36.125 billion.
EPS reported at $4.10 per share vs. $3.414 per share expected. CEO commentary ''Our lines of business saw continued momentum in the quarter. In Consumer & Community Banking, consumer spending remained healthy with combined debit and credit card sales up 10% and card loans up 21%.
In the Corporate & Investment Bank, Markets revenue fell 4% versus a very strong prior year, and we focused on supporting clients as they navigated volatile market conditions. Global Investment Banking fees remained challenged for the industry, although we significantly outperformed the overall wallet. In Commercial Banking, we earned record revenue, with exceptionally strong Payments revenue, up 98%.
Finally, Asset & Wealth Management performed well with strong long-term inflows of $47 billion across products,'' JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also touched on the state of the US and global economy: ''The U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings —consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape. However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks.
The banking situation is distinct from 2008 as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending. We also continue to monitor for potentially higher inflation for longer (and thus higher interest rates), the inflationary impact of continued fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented quantitative tightening, and geopolitical tensions including relations with China and the unpredictable war in Ukraine. While we hope these clouds will dissipate, the Firm is prepared for a broad range of outcomes, and we are confident that we can serve the needs of our customers and clients in all environments.'' ''Finally, I want to recognize our outstanding employees across the globe.
Thanks to their efforts, we extended credit and raised $588 billion in capital in the quarter for small and large businesses, governments, and U.S. consumers, as well as efficiently onboarded a significant amount of new clients across many of our businesses,'' Dimon concluded. The stock rose after beating Wall Street expectations. Shares were up by 7.55% at the end of the trading day on Friday at $138.71 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.27% 3 months: -2.99% Year-to-date: +3.45% 1 year: +10.00% JP Morgan Chase & Co. price targets Barclays: $179 Evercore ISI Group: $146 Morgan Stanley: $153 RBC Capital: $132 Oppenheimer: $157 Wells Fargo: $155 Morgan Stanley: $173 Piper Sandler: $157 Deutsche Bank: $145 Barclays: $189 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $406.68 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


Index trading is one of the most popular class of markets to trade for CFD traders, rivalling major FX pairs in trading volume, but what is indices trading and how does trading them with CFDs work? Most people will be familiar with the names of the major stock indices from financial reports in all forms of media, the most popular stock indices of CFD traders and the stocks they track are below: USA The Dow Jones Industrial average - 30 largest blue-chip companies in the US NASDAQ Composite Index – Top 100 largest non-financial companies in the US (Mostly Tech) S&P 500 Index - 500 large cap companies in the US (Bank heavy) Europe and UK FTSE 100 – Top 100 UK companies CAC 40 – Top 40 French companies DAX 40 – Top 40 German companies (Formerly known as the DAX30 which it may still be labelled as) Asia and Australia ASX 200 – Top 200 Australian companies Hang Seng - A selection of the largest companies in Hong Kong. Nikkei 225 - Consists of 225 stocks in the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Some of the advantages of trading indices: You can take a broad view of the health (or not) of that countries stock market, i.e. rather than take a position in a single stock, take a position in a basket of stocks by buying or selling the index they are components of.
Higher leverage available to trade stock indices, up to 100:1 for qualified Pro clients. Extended trading hours, you can take positions in most indices up to 23 hours a day, far greater hours than the underlying stock exchanges. Take positions long or short with ease to profit from both a rising and falling market.
When you take a Long (Buy) position you profit if the market moves up, a Short (Sell) position will profit when the market moves down. How Indices are priced and understanding your position size Stock Indices are priced in the native currency i.e., the Dow Jones (WS30 on the GO Markets platform) is priced in USD, the FTSE100 in GBP, the ASX200 in AUD etc. This is important to keep in mind when choosing your position size, it also important to know the specifications of the contract you are trading is to make sure you understand the lot sizing before entering a trade.
You can check the specifications of any contract on MT4 and MT5 by right clicking it in the Market Watch Window and selecting “Specification” An example specification of the Dow (WS30) is below (MT4 specs, MT5 is very similar): You can see in the example above that the WS30 contract with GO Markets has a contract size of 1, this means 1 lot will equal $1 USD per point movement in PnL if you take a position. e.g., if you buy 1 lot at a price of 33670 and the price rises to 33680 you are in profit by 10 points, which would equal $10 USD Most indices will have a contract size of 1, though it is advisable to always check as some may have different values, an example in the S&P 500 (US500) which has a contract size of 10. It is important to understand the contract size and base currency of the index you are trading before entering a trade to avoid any nasty surprises. Main drivers of what moves an Index’s price.
In choosing which Index to trade it is also important to understand the drivers of that index and it’s component stocks. All Indexes will have some common drivers, such as global growth concerns, geopolitical events and non-US indices will be affected (fairly or not) by what US markets are doing. Each index will also have its own individual drivers as well though.
Examples The NASDAQ (NDX100) is heavily weighted with mega cap tech stocks, the health of the Tech sector will heavily influence its price. The ASX200 and FTSE100 both have large contingents of miners, meaning commodity prices will be big drivers of these 2 indexes, more so the ASX200. The Russell 2000 has many regional and mid-size banks as its component stocks, which is why during the recent banking crisis it underperformed other US indices.
Understanding these unique drivers for each Index is recommended to make the best trading decisions possible. In Summary, trading Indices opens up some great opportunities to position yourself to profit from market moves, spreads on Indices with GO Markets are some of the best in the CFD industry, with tight spreads in and out of hours( Some brokers will artificially increase spreads on Indices outside the stock market hours of that country) They allow you to seamlessly take long or short positions to speculate for profit, or to headge existing stock positions from an overnight move. You can click the link below to learn more about Index trading with GO Markets. https://www.gomarkets.com/au/index-trading-cfds/


The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a popular tool used by forex traders to assess the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other major currencies. The DXY is calculated using the weighted average of six major currencies: the euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. To use the DXY to trade forex, you can follow these steps: 1.
Monitor the DXY: Keep an eye on the movements of the DXY to get a sense of the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar. You can use technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or trend lines, to identify the direction of the trend. 2. Analyse currency pairs Look for forex pairs that are inversely correlated to the DXY.
This means that when the DXY goes up, the currency pair goes down, and vice versa. For example, the EUR/USD pair is negatively correlated to the DXY, which means that as the DXY goes up, the EUR/USD pair goes down. Plan your trades Once you have identified a currency pair that is inversely correlated to the DXY, you can plan your trades accordingly.
For example, if the DXY is showing signs of weakness, you may want to consider going long on a negatively correlated currency pair, such as the EUR/USD. Manage your risk As with any trading strategy, it's important to manage your risk when using the DXY to trade forex. Make sure to use stop-loss orders to limit your losses in case the market moves against you.
Currency pairs may be influenced by other factors besides the DXY, which may not be a perfect indicator of the US dollar's value. To make informed trading decisions, it is important to combine the DXY with other technical and fundamental analysis tools.
