有一说一，近年来，我发现周围用三星手机的朋友可是越来越少了，其中不乏发生了很多负面的消息。其中包括：爆炸门事件：2016年，三星Galaxy Note 7智能手机因电池过热引发爆炸事件，引起全球关注。此次事件对三星的声誉造成了很大的损失，不仅造成了巨额的经济损失，还导致三星在智能手机市场上的竞争地位受损。市场份额下降：随着苹果、华为等品牌的崛起，三星的市场份额逐渐下降。尤其是在中国市场，三星的市场份额一度被华为、小米等本土品牌所超越。领导层危机：2017年，三星电子前副会长李在镕因受贿罪被判入狱，引起了公司领导层的危机。环境污染：2019年，三星被曝出在中国的生产工厂存在环境污染问题，引起了社会的广泛关注。三星随后表示将采取措施加强环境保护。这些负面消息不断的使得三星出现不好的声誉，再加上其生产的芯片的芯片一直以高发热和拉胯的功耗著称，也不断遭到了竞争对手台积电的打压，在2022年，大部分的大厂都选择使用台积电的工艺而放弃让三星代工，无疑也是对其有很大的影响。再者，三星的服务近年来也是被消费者诟病，维修售后也曾遭遇过集体诉讼。还有就是在近几年，手机竞争力不强的情况下，还都保持了很高的价格，性价比问题也是较为突出的问题。到了S23了，2023年了，三星这代，是不是会给我们一些惊喜呢？首先就是相机部分，近些年来大家手机相机都很卷啊，这次配置1200万像素超广角、两个1000万像素长焦镜头以及最重磅的2亿像素广角主摄的四摄组合。那么体现在在相片上也是表现不错的，对比Iphone 14 pro来说在相片水平是各有千秋，但是视屏方面，比起苹果阵营来说还是有不小的差距。然后通话质量其实也是一个亮点，在吵闹的环境中，仍然发挥了不俗的降噪功能，然而人声又不是非常的不真实，是我很喜欢的一个点。接下来就是重头戏了，芯片。这次三星S23搭载的定制的骁龙8gen2 for Galaxy，是用的台积电的4nm技术，哎？感觉这代的功耗稳了。其实不使用自家的生产的芯片也是有迹可循的，在今年四月，三星直接公开将要削减其NAND 和 DRAM 内存芯片的产量。这就对了嘛，以其花费时间资源不讨好，还不如直接用台积电技术来的快。那么骁龙8gen2 for Galaxy 定制版和原版有什么区别呢，之前笔者有文章写过，骁龙8 gen2 这个怪兽无限缩小了安卓和苹果在手机端处理器的差距。而这个定制版其实也就是有一些超频，实测下来其实跑分和测试差距和原版差距其实不大。用多一点点的功耗，换多一点点的性能。最后就是大家关注的散热问题，测试下来，虽然号称这次S23系列散热着巨大的改良（好吧对标以前的机型的确是散热进步不少），但是对标其他用了骁龙8gen2的机器来说，还是有些差距的，希望三星之后多多努力啦。虽然三星近年来被诟病问题不小，但是其财报显示销售额和净利润都在逐年上涨，近三年的净利润增长更是达到了21.32%，50.41%，39.46%。和国内百花齐放的情况不同，其中三星在波兰的市场渗透率已经接近了30%。
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
免责声明：文章来自 GO Markets 分析师和参与者，基于他们的独立分析或个人经验。表达的观点、意见或交易风格仅代表作者个人，不代表 GO Markets 立场。建议，（如有），具有“普遍”性，并非基于您的个人目标、财务状况或需求。在根据建议采取行动之前，请考虑该建议（如有）对您的目标、财务状况和需求的适用程度。如果建议与购买特定金融产品有关，您应该在做出任何决定之前了解并考虑该产品的产品披露声明 (PDS) 和金融服务指南 (FSG)。
Bitcoin rebounded 7% to touch $94,000 this week as two of the world's largest asset managers doubled down on their conviction that this cycle could break from crypto's boom-bust past.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein declared tokenisation "the next major evolution in market infrastructure,” comparing its potential to the introduction of electronic messaging systems in the 1970s.
Tokenised real-world assets have exploded from $7 billion to $24 billion in just one year, with certain projections expecting tokenised instruments to comprise 10-24% of portfolios by 2030.
Total RWA Value
Grayscale's latest research also put forward the case that this cycle will not follow Bitcoin’s predictable four-year pattern. Their analysis shows this cycle has had no parabolic price surge like previous cycles, and capital is flowing through regulated ETPs and corporate treasuries rather than retail speculation.
Grayscale has boldly predicted Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs next year based on this data, with near-term catalysts including a likely Federal Reserve rate cut and advancing crypto legislation.
AI Boom Creating a Memory Chip Supply Crisis
The AI revolution has had an unexpected ripple effect on conventional memory chips (DRAM).
Post-ChatGPT launch in 2022, chipmakers pivoted aggressively toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips — the components that power AI data centres.
Samsung and SK Hynix, who control roughly 70% of the global DRAM market, transitioned large portions of their production away from conventional chips.
This worked in the short term, but data centre operators are now replacing old servers, and PC and smartphone sales have exceeded expectations (all of which require DRAM).
This saw DRAM supplier inventories fall to just two to four weeks in October, down from 13 to 17 weeks in late 2024.
DRAM spot prices nearly tripled in September this year, while in Tokyo's electronics district, popular gaming memory modules have surged from 17,000 yen to over 47,000 yen in recent weeks.
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have all approached Micron with open-ended orders, agreeing to purchase whatever the company can deliver, regardless of price.
Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix shares have rallied 96%, 168%, and 213% YTD, respectively, thanks to the increased DRAM demand.
Ironically, this recent price surge has seen DRAM chip margins approach those of the advanced HBM chips, meaning non-AI memory could now become equally profitable to produce.
Every trader has had that moment where a seemingly perfect trade goes astray.
You see a clean chart on the screen, showing a textbook candle pattern; it seems as though the market planets have aligned, and so you enthusiastically jump into your trade.
But before you even have time to indulge in a little self-praise at a job well done, the market does the opposite of what you expected, and your stop loss is triggered.
This common scenario, which we have all unfortunately experienced, raises the question: What separates these “almost” trades from the truly higher-probability setups?
The State of Alignment
A high-probability setup isn’t necessarily a single signal or chart pattern. It is the coming together of several factors in a way that can potentially increase the likelihood of a successful trade.
When combined, six interconnected layers can come together to form the full “anatomy” of a higher-probability trading setup:
Context
Structure
Confluence
Timing
Management
Psychology
When more of these factors are in place, the greater the (potential) probability your trade will behave as expected.
Market Context
When we explore market context, we are looking at the underlying background conditions that may help some trading ideas thrive, and contribute to others failing.
Regime Awareness
Every trading strategy you choose to create has a natural set of market circumstances that could be an optimum trading environment for that particular trading approach.
For example:
Trending regimes may favour momentum or breakout setups.
Ranging regimes may suit mean-reversion or bounce systems.
High-volatility regimes create opportunity but demand wider stops and quicker management.
Investing time considering the underlying market regime may help avoid the temptation to force a trending system into a sideways market.
Simply looking at the slope of a 50-period moving average or the width of a Bollinger Band can suggest what type of market is currently in play.
Sentiment Alignment
If risk sentiment shifts towards a specific (or a group) of related assets, the technical picture is more likely to change to match that.
For example, if the USD index is broadly strengthening as an underlying move, then looking for long trades in EURUSD setups may end up fighting headwinds.
Setting yourself some simple rules can help, as trading against a potential tidal wave of opposite price change in a related asset is not usually a strong foundation on which to base a trading decision.
Key Reference Zones
Context also means the location of the current price relative to levels or previous landmarks.
Some examples include:
Weekly highs/lows
Prior session ranges, e.g. the Asian high and low as we move into the European session
Major “round” psychological numbers (e.g., 1.10, 1000)
A long trading setup into these areas of market importance may result in an overhead resistance, or a short trade into a potential area of support may reduce the probability of a continuation of that price move before the trade even starts.
Market Structure
Structure is the visual rhythm of price that you may see on the chart. It involves the sequences of trader impulses and corrections that end up defining the overall direction and the likelihood of continuation:
Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL)
Downtrend: Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
Transition: Break in structure often followed by a retest of previous levels.
A pullback in an uptrend followed by renewed buying pressure over a previous price swing high point may well constitute a higher-probability buy than a random candle pattern in the middle of nowhere.
Compression and Expansion
Markets move through cycles of energy build-up and release. It is a reflection of the repositioning of asset holdings, subtle institutional accumulation, or a response to new information, and may all result in different, albeit temporary, broad price scenarios.
Compression: Evidenced by a tightening range, declining ATR, smaller candles, and so suggesting a period of indecision or exhaustion of a previous price move,
Expansion: Evidenced by a sudden breakout, larger candle bodies, and a volume spike, is suggestive of a move that is now underway.
A breakout that clears a liquidity zone often runs further, as ‘trapped’ traders may further fuel the move as they scramble to reposition.
A setup aligned with such liquidity flows may carry a higher probability than one trading directly into it.
Confluence
Confluence is the art of layering independent evidence to create a whole story. Think of it as a type of “market forensics” — each piece of confirmation evidence may offer a “better hand’ or further positive alignment for your idea.
There are three noteworthy types of confluence:
Technical Confluence – Multiple technical tools agree with your trading idea:
Moving average alignment (e.g., 20 EMA above 50 EMA) for a long trade
A Fibonacci retracement level is lining up with a previously identified support level.
Momentum is increasing on indicators such as the MACD.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence – Where a lower timeframe setup is consistent with a higher timeframe trend. If you have alignment of breakout evidence across multiple timeframes, any move will often be strengthened by different traders trading on different timeframes, all jumping into new trades together.
3. Volume Confluence – Any directional move, if supported by increasing volume, suggests higher levels of market participation. Whereas falling volume may be indicative of a lesser market enthusiasm for a particular price move.
Confluence is not about clutter on your chart. Adding indicators, e.g., three oscillators showing the same thing, may make your chart look like a work of art, but it offers little to your trading decision-making and may dilute action clarity.
Think of it this way: Confluence comes from having different dimensions of evidence and seeing them align. Price, time, momentum, and participation (which is evidenced by volume) can all contribute.
Timing & Execution
An alignment in context and structure can still fail to produce a desired outcome if your timing is not as it should be. Execution is where higher probability traders may separate themselves from hopeful ones.
Entry Timing
Confirmation: Wait for the candle to close beyond the structure or level. Avoid the temptation to try to jump in early on a premature breakout wick before the candle is mature.
Retests: If the price has retested and respected a breakout level, it may filter out some false breaks that we will often see.
Then act: Be patient for the setup to complete. Talking yourself out of a trade for the sake of just one more candle” confirmation may, over time, erode potential as you are repeatedly late into trades.
Session & Liquidity Windows
Markets breathe differently throughout the day as one session rolls into another. Each session's characteristics may suit different strategies.
For example:
London Open: Often has a volatility surge; Range breaks may work well.
New York Overlap: Often, we will see some continuation or reversal of morning trends.
Asian Session: A quieter session where mean-reversion or range trading approaches may do well
Trade Management
Managing the position well after entry can turn probability into realised profit, or if mismanaged, can result in losses compounding or giving back unrealised profit to the market.
Pre-defined Invalidation
Asking yourself before entry: “What would the market have to do to prove me wrong?” could be an approach worth trying.
This facilitates stops to be placed logically rather than emotionally. If a trade idea moves against your original thinking, based on a change to a state of unalignment, then considering exit would seem logical.
Scaling & Partial Exits
High-probability trade entries will still benefit from dynamic exit approaches that may involve partial position closes and adaptive trailing of your initial stop.
Trader Psychology
One of the most important and overlooked components of a higher-probability setup is you.
It is you who makes the choices to adopt these practices, and you who must battle the common trading “demons” of fear, impatience, and distorted expectation.
Let's be real, higher-probability trades are less common than many may lead you to believe.
Many traders destroy their potential to develop any trading edge by taking frequent low-probability setups out of a desire to be “in the market.”
It can take strength to be inactive for periods of time and exercise that patience for every box to be ticked in your plan before acting.
Measure “You” performance
Each trade you take becomes data and can provide invaluable feedback. You can only make a judgment of a planned strategy if you have followed it to the letter.
Discipline in execution can be your greatest ally or enemy in determining whether you ultimately achieve positive trading outcomes.
Bringing It All Together – The Setup Blueprint
Final Thoughts
Higher-probability setups are not found but are constructed methodically.
A trader who understands the “higher-probability anatomy” is less likely to chase trades or feel the need to always be in the market. They will see merit in ticking all the right boxes and then taking decisive action when it is time to do so.
It is now up to you to review what you have in place now, identify gaps that may exist, and commit to taking action!
.jpg)
.jpg)
.jpg)
